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  • Can Marco Rossi Build On His Playoff Performance?

    Image courtesy of Peter Casey-Imagn Images
    Kalisha Turnipseed

    By Kalisha Turnipseed -

    Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin has yet to extend an offer to Marco Rossi, and it's approaching offer sheet time. Guerin's ready to match an offer sheet. If another team offer-sheets Rossi, he'll be happy he kept the 23-year-old forward. Liam Ohgren improved his physical frame, knowing he can reduce injury risk and play more physically. Why can't Rossi continue improving his frame to be stronger? 

    The Wild put Rossi on the fourth line and limited his minutes in the playoffs. He played 66 minutes (11 minutes per game), which is tied for 9th on the team, and 179th in the NHL. He scored 2 points and an assist in 6 games in a small but high-leverage sample size. However, Rossi impressed during his short stint, but it wasn't enough for Guerin to award him with $7 million annual average value on a long-term deal. 

    Rossi’s playoff stint was limited, but his scoring rates and defensive metrics suggest untapped potential. Could more opportunities unlock a breakout performance? Let's explore what makes Rossi an interesting candidate to be a potential playoff performer: 

    Team Rankings 

    • Goals Per 60 Minutes (G/60): 4th (1.8) 
    • Assists Per 60 Minutes (A/60): 8th (0.9) 
    • Points Per 60 Minutes (P/60): 4th (2.7) 
    • Shots Attempts Per 60 Minutes (CF/60): 7th (9.88)
    • On-Ice Goal Percentage (On-Ice G%): 5th (60%)
    • On-Ice Expected Goals Against Per 60 (xGA/60): 3rd (2.52) 

    Rossi finished as a top-10 forward when it came to producing shots, goals, and defense. His expected goals per 60 minutes (xGA/60) stood out because he finished ahead of Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, and Freddy Gaudreau.

    Head coach John Hynes relied on Eriksson Ek, Foligno, and Gaudreau for defensive assignments. However, he could have used Rossi more, given his production. 

    League Rankings 

    Rossi finished with a better G/60 than Draisaitl, A/60 than Boldy, P/60 than Kucherov, and G% than McDavid. If Rossi got more ice time with Kaprizov and Boldy, then he would've been more productive. Rossi generated more shot attempts than Marner, a puck wizard. Boldy was a better goal scorer than Rossi, but only by 2 percentage points. 

    That isn't something that happens by accident. Rossi’s a first-round talent whom the organization seems to view as an underachiever, but who is quietly overachieving. The fact that the Wild limited Rossi throughout the playoffs is inexcusable. 

    Hynes could've benefitted more from this lineup against the Vegas Golden Knights: 

    How did Rossi perform compared to Eriksson Ek and Hartman? 

    • G/60
      • Rossi: 1.8
      • Hartman: 1.15
      • Eriksson Ek: 0
    • P/60
      • Hartman: 3.44
      • Rossi: 2.7
      • Eriksson Ek: 1.36 
    • G%
      • Hartman: 61.5% 
      • Rossi: 60%
      • Eriksson Ek: 50%
    • Goals Above Expected (GAE)
      • Rossi: 1.6
      • Hartman: -0.1
      • Eriksson Ek: -2
    • Goals Above Shooting Talent (GAST)
      • Rossi: 1.7
      • Hartman: -0.1
      • Eriksson Ek: -1.8

    Hartman performed better in terms of P/60 and G%. Hartman deserved top-six minutes. However, Hynes could've put him with Eriksson Ek and Zuccarello. They're better linemates than Nyquist, and Hartman’s a natural wing. 

    Rossi produced the best G/60 and GAE. While Hartman was red hot, he still finished with a negative GAE. Rossi still managed to have better goal production despite being with Trenin and Brazeau. 

    Eriksson Ek was the worst producer of the three. However, his defense is elite, and he remained on the top line. He would've still been an elite shutdown center with Zuccarello and Hartman. 

    Was this lineup winning the Stanley Cup? No. However, they'd have a better shot at advancing past the first round to show progression. 

    They would've given Edmonton Oilers’ goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard problems, but we've seen the Wild make goalies look like Vezina trophy winners. The Dallas Stars are an advanced version of the Wild when it comes to scoring depth.

    What should the lines look like on opening night?  

    • Hartman - Rossi - Kaprizov 
    • Boldy - Danila Yurov - Vladimir Tarasenko 
    • Zuccarello - Eriksson Ek - Ohgren 
    • Foligno - Nico Sturm - Trenin 

    Rossi continues to grow with Kaprizov

    Rossi has shown that he doesn't need Kaprizov to overachieve. While Kaprizov empowers everyone he plays with, Rossi has produced without him. That’s why Rossi deserves more ice time with Kaprizov. Hartman also should play on Kaprizov’s line.

    Hartman still gets a top-six opportunity

    Hartman playing on the top line is a controversial move, but here's the thing. Hartman has top-line experience and chemistry with Kaprizov. This time, Hartman will be playing on Kaprizov’s opposite wing, rather than at center, becoming Minnesota’s Brad Marchand lite. 

    Kaprizov and Zuccarello can also have individual success

    Kaprizov and Zuccarello are like Marco and Polo. However, they rely too much on passing instead of taking shots. Kaprizov will shoot the puck more while playing with Rossi and Hartman. 

    Rossi can set up Kaprizov. While it won't be as flashy as Zuccarello or Boldy's passing, Kaprizov will remain productive. Kaprizov played with Victor Rask and won the Calder Trophy. Rossi is much better than Rask. Zuccarello can focus on helping Ohgren gain more confidence as he adapts to the NHL. 

    Zuccarello continues his old magic 

    Zuccarello continues playing well in his late 30s while mentoring Ohgren. The Wild need Ohgren to grow as an NHL goal scorer, and Zuccarello can help with that. Zuccarello can utilize his high-end creativity to maximize Ohgren’s shot. Eriksson Ek's the perfect net front presence. 

    Eriksson Ek and Ohgren already have a connection other than being Swedish. Ohgren is becoming Mr. September in training thanks to Eriksson Ek setting an example. 

    Thanks to Ohgren’s father, Andreas, as well. He's the real MVP. Andreas is a professional trainer for NHL players, including Gabriel Landeskog, Nicklas Backstrom, and Jesper Boqvist. So, for Andreas to get his son looking like a machine is encouraging for Guerin's future. While Eriksson Ek and Zuccarello mentor Ohgren, Boldy and Tarasenko can mentor Yurov. 

    Boldy can temporarily bring back prime Tarasenko 

    Aside from Kaprizov, Boldy is the best player to maximize Tarasenko. Hartman doesn't have the puck skills like Boldy to maximize Tarasenko. Boldy's contract is turning out to be one of the league’s best bargains, giving Tarasenko better security to mentor Yurov. 

    Yurov gets to establish himself as a top-six center by playing a middle-six role. That relieves pressure from Yurov as the center of focus. The more time Yurov spends with Boldy, the more it will unleash Yurov. 

    Overall, the Wild have a better top-nine with the configuration above. Yurov and Ohgren haven't established themselves in the NHL, where they'll need veteran support to balance the lines. Trenin and Foligno have a big center with speed in Sturm to win faceoffs for them. There's enough support for Rossi to thrive.

    Rossi may consider a bridge deal, and the Wild should consider offering him one. Rossi needs to view this as an opportunity to secure a better raise in the future. Guerin and Hynes will soon acknowledge his true value. However, it's time for the Wild to maximize him after quietly establishing his presence in the spotlight. 

    Hynes can't continue to put Rossi in a bottom-six role. Rossi has the potential to be a top-line center, but it will take more time and experience to develop. The Wild have something brewing for the 2025-26 season, and Rossi fits that picture. Minnesota should still be happy that Rossi fell to 9th in the 2020 draft. Let's continue supporting his fight from death to getting his name on the Stanley Cup.

    By Kalisha Turnipseed  

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    Imyourhuckleberry
    5 minutes ago, goenzoy said:

    Rossi even spending time with Joe Thornton in Switzerland last week 

    For what purpose I dont know 

    Trying to get better at faceoffs, as was indicated by the Athletic? Thornton won over 54% in the part of his career where faceoff wins were tracked, finishing over 56% in six different seasons.

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    goenzoy
    3 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    were tracked, finishing over 56% in six different seasons

    Well with all the Rossi talk it would be nice to hear also something about Kaprisov.I don't buy this its a "done deal" 

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    SkolWild73
    36 minutes ago, goenzoy said:

    Well with all the Rossi talk it would be nice to hear also something about Kaprisov.I don't buy this its a "done deal" 

    Maybe not, but doubtful anything is done until he gets back from Russia.

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    hydguy75

    Chipping here from the jury bin because I do not know specifics, could Rossi and BG reach a middle point being $5m x 2-3 years, with some sort of performance based compensation tacked on?  It seems that BG thinks Rossi' isn't valuable, or at least doesn't want to pay him 2C going rates.  Rossi seems to think he's worth more and given a bad rap.  Or would this be about the same as Rossi taking a $5 x 3 and putting up stats, then getting a more lucrative deal in the follow on contract?  Any rate, good discussion here from the many perspectives and considerations.  

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    Mateo3xm
    8 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Why? You think Rossi wants a contract at $5M and to be a restricted free agent again in 2 years?

    I think it's more likely they agree to a 4 or 5 year deal in the $6M neighborhood.

    Rossi is effective, but undersized with below average speed, and other teams aren't clamoring to give up assets to pay him more than the Wild are offering.

    I’ve posted this before but maybe you didn’t see it..


    “He is in the 75th percentile for top skating speed and the 89th percentile for skating distance. The Austrian native is only 23 and is already faster than 80% of the league. Along with his skating, he excels in taking accurate shots. He's in the 86th percentile for shooting % and is in the 85th percentile for goals scored.”

     

    -Jordan Manny Preds line 

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    1Brotherbill

    This is just low hanging fruit.

    The Wild want to keep Rossi just not at his agents price tag.  It's all good and fine for Rossi and his agent to want more money but at the end of the day they have to sign a contract either with the Wild or sign an offer sheet.  Since the teams that have compensation picks haven't offered Rossi an offer sheet that means that nobody else is willing to pay the money Rossi wants.  

    What that money value is we don't' know. I'm thinking Rossi wants more than 7 million.  So who can afford that and has the picks to give as compensation.  12 teams can offer Rossi more than 7.021 million to 9.360 million a year, Anahein, Boston, Calgary, Chicago, LA, Detroit, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Utah, and Philadelphia. Of those teams listed above only, Chicago, Anaheim, Calgary, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Nashville have money to pay Rossi over 7 million.  And Pittsuburgh and Detroit have full contact allotments. 

    So, we are down to four teams that can sign Rossi and give the picks to Minnesota as compensation, Chicago, Anaheim, Calgary, and Nashville.  Chicago and Anaheim are probably not going to go that route being the three picks they would have to give up are probably going to be high in the round.  Nashville is probably looking to rebuild being the great experiment from last year was a disaster.  That leaves Calgary as the only team that will give Rossi an offer sheet.  Since it hasn't come it probably won't come.  

    That means the Wild can sign Rossi to the Qualifying offer sheet or negotiate a longer contract.  Even if Rossi takes the one year Qualifying offer sheet he is still a RFA next summer and this all will happen again because he is under control until the summer of 2029.  

    Rossi should ask for a three year deal at 6 million a year.  Play out the contract and then go into his Free Agency period.  If he performs he will get paid what he wants.  If he doesn't well that is on his.  The Wild appear to want to pay him 5 million, which is fare for a young RFA.  

    At the end of the day he has to deal with Minnesota or not play in the NHL this year.  Even with that he is still under control by Minnesota until the summer of 2029. 

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    mnhockeyfan03

    Rossi will not get more than a 2 year $4.5mm deal from the Wild, then be traded by midseason if he does sign.  If he wants more it will have to be from someone else.  Look for Rakell from Pitt, Zacha from Boston, Anderson from Calgary, Terry from Anaheim (no to Mctavish).  Each one of these guys will cost Rossi plus pick or prospect.  His value is not what people think. A fair trade would be from Detroit for Danielson straight up for Rossi. Danielson is a promising risk but worth it.  Sometimes as a GM you have to take a risk to get a 1C

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    SkolWild73
    48 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    Rossi will not get more than a 2 year $4.5mm deal from the Wild, then be traded by midseason if he does sign.  If he wants more it will have to be from someone else.  Look for Rakell from Pitt, Zacha from Boston, Anderson from Calgary, Terry from Anaheim (no to Mctavish).  Each one of these guys will cost Rossi plus pick or prospect.  His value is not what people think. A fair trade would be from Detroit for Danielson straight up for Rossi. Danielson is a promising risk but worth it.  Sometimes as a GM you have to take a risk to get a 1C

    Danielson might become a really good player but Billy has been pretty clear that he isn’t doing a trade that will make the team worse this year.  Trading for a prospect with zero nhl experience for Rossi probably won’t happen.  

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    mnhockeyfan03
    8 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    Danielson might become a really good player but Billy has been pretty clear that he isn’t doing a trade that will make the team worse this year.  Trading for a prospect with zero nhl experience for Rossi probably won’t happen.  

    Dont think the team will get worse if Danielson is ready and we get years on a ELC.  We are not contending this year anyway.  If we could get Danielson, Roslovic, kuzenetsov and Rakell we might have a better team to have a fighting chance but we need 3 more top forwards we don’t have and need to get bigger on D

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    Imyourhuckleberry
    11 hours ago, Mateo3xm said:

    “He is in the 75th percentile for top skating speed and the 89th percentile for skating distance. The Austrian native is only 23 and is already faster than 80% of the league. Along with his skating, he excels in taking accurate shots. He's in the 86th percentile for shooting % and is in the 85th percentile for goals scored.”

    That's not what NHL Edge is showing. His chart looks similar to Brock Boeser.

    This is Rossi compared to average skater according to NHL Edge.

    Top Speed (mph) 21.27 21.67 Below 50th
    22+ mph bursts 0 0.9  
    20-22 mph bursts 3 15.1 Below 50th
    18-20 mph bursts 27 62.3 Below 50th

    Where does the information you had come from?

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    SkolWild73
    9 hours ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    Dont think the team will get worse if Danielson is ready and we get years on a ELC.  We are not contending this year anyway.  If we could get Danielson, Roslovic, kuzenetsov and Rakell we might have a better team to have a fighting chance but we need 3 more top forwards we don’t have and need to get bigger on D

    I understand what you are saying, but that is gambling that Danielson is ready to play this year.  Also, if we would add the other 3 players you are mentioning, who are the three forwards they are replacing?

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    SkolWild73
    29 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    That's not what NHL Edge is showing. His chart looks similar to Brock Boeser.

    This is Rossi compared to average skater according to NHL Edge.

    Top Speed (mph) 21.27 21.67 Below 50th
    22+ mph bursts 0 0.9  
    20-22 mph bursts 3 15.1 Below 50th
    18-20 mph bursts 27 62.3 Below 50th

    Where does the information you had come from?

    Guessing he was looking at his regular season stats and not his postseason stats like you used.  His regular season stats are this:

    Top Speed (mph) 22.81 22.18 75
    22+ mph bursts 1 3.7 Below 50th
    20-22 mph bursts 99 72.8 69
    18-20 mph bursts 505 325.6 75
           
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    bisopher
    37 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    Guessing he was looking at his regular season stats and not his postseason stats like you used.  His regular season stats are this:

    Top Speed (mph) 22.81 22.18 75
    22+ mph bursts 1 3.7 Below 50th
    20-22 mph bursts 99 72.8 69
    18-20 mph bursts 505 325.6 75
           

    That validates the point that Rossi "wasn't himself" in the playoffs. Was it the shot he took in the knee late in the season, just overall fatigue,  or ???

     

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    SkolWild73
    4 minutes ago, bisopher said:

    That validates the point that Rossi "wasn't himself" in the playoffs. Was it the shot he took in the knee late in the season, just overall fatigue,  or ???

     

    Not really.   They use totals for this, so even players such as Boldy and Kap are below 50% in the playoffs and someone like Trent Frederick from Edmonton is well above for the playoffs.

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    mnhockeyfan03
    1 hour ago, SkolWild73 said:

    I understand what you are saying, but that is gambling that Danielson is ready to play this year.  Also, if we would add the other 3 players you are mentioning, who are the three forwards they are replacing?

    Yes it’s gambling but worth the risk.  For those other players replace Rossi, Hartman, Ohgren, Zucc.  Hopefully Billy is also looking at how to address our size on D in the next year by moving on from surgeon and if Zeev performs we can replace Brodin as well. Rossi, Ohgren, Hartman, Zucc, Spurg,  Brodin, Terrasenko.  These players I listed I think have the best chance of not being on the team starting next year which I think is when I think our run could start.  But hopefully Billy is careful how much he pays Kap to be able to build out the team.  

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    Pewterschmidt
    2 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    That's not what NHL Edge is showing. His chart looks similar to Brock Boeser.

    This is Rossi compared to average skater according to NHL Edge.

    Top Speed (mph) 21.27 21.67 Below 50th
    22+ mph bursts 0 0.9  
    20-22 mph bursts 3 15.1 Below 50th
    18-20 mph bursts 27 62.3 Below 50th

    Where does the information you had come from?

    This data syncs better with my Rossi speed eye test.  Not a sloth, but not a burner either.  He may be quick, but not fast

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