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  • Can Marco Rossi Build On His Playoff Performance?


    Image courtesy of Peter Casey-Imagn Images
    Kalisha Turnipseed

    Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin has yet to extend an offer to Marco Rossi, and it's approaching offer sheet time. Guerin's ready to match an offer sheet. If another team offer-sheets Rossi, he'll be happy he kept the 23-year-old forward. Liam Ohgren improved his physical frame, knowing he can reduce injury risk and play more physically. Why can't Rossi continue improving his frame to be stronger? 

    The Wild put Rossi on the fourth line and limited his minutes in the playoffs. He played 66 minutes (11 minutes per game), which is tied for 9th on the team, and 179th in the NHL. He scored 2 points and an assist in 6 games in a small but high-leverage sample size. However, Rossi impressed during his short stint, but it wasn't enough for Guerin to award him with $7 million annual average value on a long-term deal. 

    Rossi’s playoff stint was limited, but his scoring rates and defensive metrics suggest untapped potential. Could more opportunities unlock a breakout performance? Let's explore what makes Rossi an interesting candidate to be a potential playoff performer: 

    Team Rankings 

    • Goals Per 60 Minutes (G/60): 4th (1.8) 
    • Assists Per 60 Minutes (A/60): 8th (0.9) 
    • Points Per 60 Minutes (P/60): 4th (2.7) 
    • Shots Attempts Per 60 Minutes (CF/60): 7th (9.88)
    • On-Ice Goal Percentage (On-Ice G%): 5th (60%)
    • On-Ice Expected Goals Against Per 60 (xGA/60): 3rd (2.52) 

    Rossi finished as a top-10 forward when it came to producing shots, goals, and defense. His expected goals per 60 minutes (xGA/60) stood out because he finished ahead of Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, and Freddy Gaudreau.

    Head coach John Hynes relied on Eriksson Ek, Foligno, and Gaudreau for defensive assignments. However, he could have used Rossi more, given his production. 

    League Rankings 

    Rossi finished with a better G/60 than Draisaitl, A/60 than Boldy, P/60 than Kucherov, and G% than McDavid. If Rossi got more ice time with Kaprizov and Boldy, then he would've been more productive. Rossi generated more shot attempts than Marner, a puck wizard. Boldy was a better goal scorer than Rossi, but only by 2 percentage points. 

    That isn't something that happens by accident. Rossi’s a first-round talent whom the organization seems to view as an underachiever, but who is quietly overachieving. The fact that the Wild limited Rossi throughout the playoffs is inexcusable. 

    Hynes could've benefitted more from this lineup against the Vegas Golden Knights: 

    How did Rossi perform compared to Eriksson Ek and Hartman? 

    • G/60
      • Rossi: 1.8
      • Hartman: 1.15
      • Eriksson Ek: 0
    • P/60
      • Hartman: 3.44
      • Rossi: 2.7
      • Eriksson Ek: 1.36 
    • G%
      • Hartman: 61.5% 
      • Rossi: 60%
      • Eriksson Ek: 50%
    • Goals Above Expected (GAE)
      • Rossi: 1.6
      • Hartman: -0.1
      • Eriksson Ek: -2
    • Goals Above Shooting Talent (GAST)
      • Rossi: 1.7
      • Hartman: -0.1
      • Eriksson Ek: -1.8

    Hartman performed better in terms of P/60 and G%. Hartman deserved top-six minutes. However, Hynes could've put him with Eriksson Ek and Zuccarello. They're better linemates than Nyquist, and Hartman’s a natural wing. 

    Rossi produced the best G/60 and GAE. While Hartman was red hot, he still finished with a negative GAE. Rossi still managed to have better goal production despite being with Trenin and Brazeau. 

    Eriksson Ek was the worst producer of the three. However, his defense is elite, and he remained on the top line. He would've still been an elite shutdown center with Zuccarello and Hartman. 

    Was this lineup winning the Stanley Cup? No. However, they'd have a better shot at advancing past the first round to show progression. 

    They would've given Edmonton Oilers’ goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard problems, but we've seen the Wild make goalies look like Vezina trophy winners. The Dallas Stars are an advanced version of the Wild when it comes to scoring depth.

    What should the lines look like on opening night?  

    • Hartman - Rossi - Kaprizov 
    • Boldy - Danila Yurov - Vladimir Tarasenko 
    • Zuccarello - Eriksson Ek - Ohgren 
    • Foligno - Nico Sturm - Trenin 

    Rossi continues to grow with Kaprizov

    Rossi has shown that he doesn't need Kaprizov to overachieve. While Kaprizov empowers everyone he plays with, Rossi has produced without him. That’s why Rossi deserves more ice time with Kaprizov. Hartman also should play on Kaprizov’s line.

    Hartman still gets a top-six opportunity

    Hartman playing on the top line is a controversial move, but here's the thing. Hartman has top-line experience and chemistry with Kaprizov. This time, Hartman will be playing on Kaprizov’s opposite wing, rather than at center, becoming Minnesota’s Brad Marchand lite. 

    Kaprizov and Zuccarello can also have individual success

    Kaprizov and Zuccarello are like Marco and Polo. However, they rely too much on passing instead of taking shots. Kaprizov will shoot the puck more while playing with Rossi and Hartman. 

    Rossi can set up Kaprizov. While it won't be as flashy as Zuccarello or Boldy's passing, Kaprizov will remain productive. Kaprizov played with Victor Rask and won the Calder Trophy. Rossi is much better than Rask. Zuccarello can focus on helping Ohgren gain more confidence as he adapts to the NHL. 

    Zuccarello continues his old magic 

    Zuccarello continues playing well in his late 30s while mentoring Ohgren. The Wild need Ohgren to grow as an NHL goal scorer, and Zuccarello can help with that. Zuccarello can utilize his high-end creativity to maximize Ohgren’s shot. Eriksson Ek's the perfect net front presence. 

    Eriksson Ek and Ohgren already have a connection other than being Swedish. Ohgren is becoming Mr. September in training thanks to Eriksson Ek setting an example

    Thanks to Ohgren’s father, Andreas, as well. He's the real MVP. Andreas is a professional trainer for NHL players, including Gabriel Landeskog, Nicklas Backstrom, and Jesper Boqvist. So, for Andreas to get his son looking like a machine is encouraging for Guerin's future. While Eriksson Ek and Zuccarello mentor Ohgren, Boldy and Tarasenko can mentor Yurov. 

    Boldy can temporarily bring back prime Tarasenko 

    Aside from Kaprizov, Boldy is the best player to maximize Tarasenko. Hartman doesn't have the puck skills like Boldy to maximize Tarasenko. Boldy's contract is turning out to be one of the league’s best bargains, giving Tarasenko better security to mentor Yurov. 

    Yurov gets to establish himself as a top-six center by playing a middle-six role. That relieves pressure from Yurov as the center of focus. The more time Yurov spends with Boldy, the more it will unleash Yurov. 

    Overall, the Wild have a better top-nine with the configuration above. Yurov and Ohgren haven't established themselves in the NHL, where they'll need veteran support to balance the lines. Trenin and Foligno have a big center with speed in Sturm to win faceoffs for them. There's enough support for Rossi to thrive.

    Rossi may consider a bridge deal, and the Wild should consider offering him one. Rossi needs to view this as an opportunity to secure a better raise in the future. Guerin and Hynes will soon acknowledge his true value. However, it's time for the Wild to maximize him after quietly establishing his presence in the spotlight. 

    Hynes can't continue to put Rossi in a bottom-six role. Rossi has the potential to be a top-line center, but it will take more time and experience to develop. The Wild have something brewing for the 2025-26 season, and Rossi fits that picture. Minnesota should still be happy that Rossi fell to 9th in the 2020 draft. Let's continue supporting his fight from death to getting his name on the Stanley Cup.

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    Rossi is rather happy here in Switzerland joking around with Big Joe Thornton in Davos. He could start playing in Switzerland tomorrow should offer from Wild not reach acceptable levels 

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    Rossi’s a first-round talent whom the organization seems to view as an underachiever, but who is quietly overachieving.

    Truth. If only he was an inch or two taller, all of this unnecessary drama wouldn't exist. I also wonder if Billy holds a grudge after Rossi's issues with covid, thinks he's weak. Which would be really sad, but it wouldn't surprise me.

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    Not a question of whether Rossi can be an effective NHLer.  He already is... the question is what value he brings.  I've read comments and articles from $4.5M to $7.5M a year.  Personally I think he comes in at 3 years for $5.5M/year.  It's a good contract and a lot of money.  It also sets him up for a big contract during his prime years if he continues to show improvement.  

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    18 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    If memory serves it took Boldy until his 3rd playoffs to perform. I don't get the Rossi can't play in the playoffs premature especulation.

     

    It was all to devalue him so they could resign him cheap. He still performed admirably, being tied to two oafs.

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    33 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    Not a question of whether Rossi can be an effective NHLer.  He already is... the question is what value he brings.  I've read comments and articles from $4.5M to $7.5M a year.  Personally I think he comes in at 3 years for $5.5M/year.  It's a good contract and a lot of money.  It also sets him up for a big contract during his prime years if he continues to show improvement.  

    The only reason you could say he's worth 5.5 is because he's caught between a rock and a hard place. Otherwise his numbers put him in the 7 mill range according to similar players.

    It's the way it's set up  but I'd bet it causes bad blood between players and franchises.

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    33 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

    It was all to devalue him so they could resign him cheap. He still performed admirably, being tied to two oafs.

    If that's really the case, Guerin needed to be fired yesterday.

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    What should the lines look like on opening night?  

    • Hartman - Rossi - Kaprizov 
    • Boldy - Danila Yurov - Vladimir Tarasenko 
    • Zuccarello - Eriksson Ek - Ohgren 
    • Foligno - Nico Sturm - Trenin 

    During the playoff run, Ross-Vegas lost his 2nd line center role to Hartzy.  And as much as Hartzy has been in the doghouse, in the small sample size that was the playoffs, it looked like Hartzy 'earned' that spot vs. Rossi 'lost' that spot.  I'm not sure what data point you're using to suggest that moving Hartzy over to wing would be the right move here...

    During the playoffs, rolling the top lines of:

    1. Bolds-Ekker-Kappy
    2. Zucc-Hartzy-Foligno

    Much of the demotion to the '4th' line seems to ignore the fact that the 'fourth' line had the third most TOI, down the stretch they were leaning VERY heavily on Bolds/Ekker/Kappy:

    Num Time % EV - FORWARDS GF GA +/- SF SA SF% CF CA CF%
    1 39:34 23.7 JOEL ERIKSSON EK - MATT BOLDY - KIRILL KAPRIZOV 1 3 -2 16 22 42.1 43 42 50.6
    2 21:44 13.0 MATS ZUCCARELLO - MARCUS FOLIGNO - RYAN HARTMAN 2 1 1 9 8 52.9 24 28 46.2
    3 15:50 9.5 YAKOV TRENIN - MARCO ROSSI - JUSTIN BRAZEAU 1 1 0 6 7 46.2 10 15 40.0

    Frankly what Rossi was able to do with Trenin/Braz was damn impressive.

    Moral of the story is, I dont see a Hartman/Rossi/Kaprizov line making much sense for this team, both given their deployment last season and also the skillsets of the players you have on the bench. 

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    47 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    3 years for $5.5M/year

    He was never offered this type of contract 

    Plus if you look at off-season signing for 2C market the numbers what are being paid are above 6M. Generous teams like Canes even 7M and above

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    2 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    hard about a 7 x 7 range

    The time for a 7 year deal has passed .Would be horrible surprised if we see more then 2 years 

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    21 minutes ago, goenzoy said:

    Would be horrible surprised if we see more then 2 years 

    Why? You think Rossi wants a contract at $5M and to be a restricted free agent again in 2 years?

    I think it's more likely they agree to a 4 or 5 year deal in the $6M neighborhood.

    Rossi is effective, but undersized with below average speed, and other teams aren't clamoring to give up assets to pay him more than the Wild are offering.

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    13 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Why? You think Rossi wants a contract at $5M and to be a restricted free agent again in 2 years?

    I think it's more likely they agree to a 4 or 5 year deal in the $6M neighborhood.

    Rossi is effective, but undersized with below average speed, and other teams aren't clamoring to give up assets to pay him more than the Wild are offering.

    I think he'll want to get to UFA status. 4x$6 to 6.5M is my prediction.

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    1 hour ago, MrCheatachu said:

    During the playoffs, rolling the top lines of:

    1. Bolds-Ekker-Kappy
    2. Zucc-Hartzy-Foligno

    I have been wondering why they didn't move Hartman to wing on the 2nd line and put Rossi up there in the middle. Hartman's versatility is part of his value. A Foligno-Rossi-Hartman line would be solid defensively, would be able to play physically (in spite of Rossi) and add solid scoring. And you can keep the Boldy-Ek-Kaprizov line together. 

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    1 hour ago, Willy the poor boy said:

    The only reason you could say he's worth 5.5 is because he's caught between a rock and a hard place. Otherwise his numbers put him in the 7 mill range according to similar players.

    It's the way it's set up  but I'd bet it causes bad blood between players and franchises.

    You are not wrong.  His stat value puts him in that $7M range.  BG definitely has him over a barrel.  But there is something else at play here.  Rossi has not received a single offer sheet.  Just a total guess here... but I think it's because at $7M you expect a player in that range to stand out.  Rossi does not.  He does a lot of little things really well and he is well disciplined at both ends of the ice. But rarely does he make a play where you look and think "WOW"... GMs want that before they cut that kind of paycheck.  I could be way off here.... only the GMs truly know what is turning them off to Rossi... I just don't buy into it that it is purely a size thing.

    There is a business side of this game that is hard nosed.  You can't let off ice issues run your career.  That's a quick way to find yourself out of the game completely.  If Rossi signs lower than he wants... he should let his internal spirit/drive prove everyone wrong and play like a $9M dollar player.  Then let the cards fall where they may.  

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    48 minutes ago, PNW Wild said:

    I have been wondering why they didn't move Hartman to wing on the 2nd line and put Rossi up there in the middle. Hartman's versatility is part of his value. A Foligno-Rossi-Hartman line would be solid defensively, would be able to play physically (in spite of Rossi) and add solid scoring. And you can keep the Boldy-Ek-Kaprizov line together. 

    Yeah, because Zuccarello centering Brazeau/Trenin sounds like a wet dream...

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    1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Why? You think Rossi wants a contract at $5M and to be a restricted free agent again in 2 years?

    Because 6 million in 3 years is simple not enough apart from Rossi not liking the coaching style of Hynes .Even Dean Evason was the better coach 

    Rossi s range should be somehow between 50 and 75 point s . With luck maybe even point per game .And you simple dont pay a point per game player $5M 

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    18 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    only the GMs truly know what is turning them off to Rossi... I just don't buy into it that it is purely a size thing.

    I actually wonder if other GMs are actually turned off by him.  I get that no one has extended him an offer sheet, well, one that he has signed anyway.  But last year, Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Seth Jarvis and Mathew Beniers all signed in August and September and did not sign an offer sheet either.  I would think plenty of GMs and teams would have loved to have these guys.  I think it just goes to show that no matter how good a player may be, teams just do not use offer sheets, especially if they know that the other team has the money to sign the player.

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    1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    but undersized

    This undersized is such a myth . Rossi will have 200lb soon and is very strong with his legs and lower body. And if someone is 5.9 or 6.1 makes not much difference if the player does have the same weight 

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    2 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    I get that no one has extended him an offer sheet,

    Offersheets are not done at day 2 of free agency 

    If they do happen it will be end of August or September 

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    1 minute ago, goenzoy said:

    Offersheets are not done at day 2 of free agency 

    If they do happen it will be end of August or September 

    Offer sheets can happen at any time starting on July 1st at noon.  The last three were in August, but the 7 before that were in July, with most of them being in the first ten days.  But my point is, other good players have not signed offer sheets either.

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    42 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    But there is something else at play here.

    There is something else at play and it is the Guerin factor. Guerin let it be known that he would match whatever offer sheet Rossi got. Any teams considering it immediately backed away because there is no point. Guerin has the cap space to match so why would another team waste their time. It was a smart but cutthroat move on Guerin's part. Rossi was hoping to leverage an offer sheet and Guerin made it pointless for anyone to do so. The amount of money it would take for Guerin to start second guessing is more than people want to pay for a guy that played forth line minutes in playoffs (whether it was deserved or not.) 

    I foresee Rossi needing to cave to the 5X5 offered and giving Guerin the middle finger once he hits UFA unless Guerin pays big. Guerin's plan works in the short term but if Rossi develops into something better or even stays consistent, he's going to have no taste for a team friendly deal.

    Edited by TheGoosesAreLooses
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    29 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

    But my point is, other good players have not signed offer sheets either.

    I know I also dont think that offersheet is a very realistic option 

    If any team only Sharks are realistic in my view 

    Rossi even spending time with Joe Thornton in Switzerland last week 

    For what purpose I dont know 

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    2 minutes ago, goenzoy said:

    Rossi even spending time with Joe Thornton in Switzerland last week 

    For what purpose I dont know 

    It was reported working on face offs.

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