By Kalisha Turnipseed -
Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin has yet to extend an offer to Marco Rossi, and it's approaching offer sheet time. Guerin's ready to match an offer sheet. If another team offer-sheets Rossi, he'll be happy he kept the 23-year-old forward. Liam Ohgren improved his physical frame, knowing he can reduce injury risk and play more physically. Why can't Rossi continue improving his frame to be stronger?
The Wild put Rossi on the fourth line and limited his minutes in the playoffs. He played 66 minutes (11 minutes per game), which is tied for 9th on the team, and 179th in the NHL. He scored 2 points and an assist in 6 games in a small but high-leverage sample size. However, Rossi impressed during his short stint, but it wasn't enough for Guerin to award him with $7 million annual average value on a long-term deal.
Rossi’s playoff stint was limited, but his scoring rates and defensive metrics suggest untapped potential. Could more opportunities unlock a breakout performance? Let's explore what makes Rossi an interesting candidate to be a potential playoff performer:
Team Rankings
- Goals Per 60 Minutes (G/60): 4th (1.8)
- Assists Per 60 Minutes (A/60): 8th (0.9)
- Points Per 60 Minutes (P/60): 4th (2.7)
- Shots Attempts Per 60 Minutes (CF/60): 7th (9.88)
- On-Ice Goal Percentage (On-Ice G%): 5th (60%)
- On-Ice Expected Goals Against Per 60 (xGA/60): 3rd (2.52)
Rossi finished as a top-10 forward when it came to producing shots, goals, and defense. His expected goals per 60 minutes (xGA/60) stood out because he finished ahead of Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, and Freddy Gaudreau.
Head coach John Hynes relied on Eriksson Ek, Foligno, and Gaudreau for defensive assignments. However, he could have used Rossi more, given his production.
League Rankings
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G/60: 13th
- Ahead of: William Nylander, Mikko Rantanen, Kevin Fiala, Sebastian Aho, and Leon Draisaitl
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A/60: 102nd
- Ahead of: Andrei Svechnikov, Nikolaj Ehlers, Boldy, Jason Robertson, and Alex Ovechkin
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P/60: 47th
- Ahead of: Tim Stützle, Roope Hintz, Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, and Nikita Kucherov
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CF/60: 207th
- Ahead of: Mark Stone, Mitch Marner, and Robert Thomas
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G%: T-65th
- Ahead of: Aleksander Barkov, Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Rantanen, Nylander, Marner, Kirill Kaprizov, Boldy, and Eichel
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xGA/60: 157th
- Ahead of: Draisaitl, Kaprizov, Marner, Matthews, and Brady Tkachuk
Rossi finished with a better G/60 than Draisaitl, A/60 than Boldy, P/60 than Kucherov, and G% than McDavid. If Rossi got more ice time with Kaprizov and Boldy, then he would've been more productive. Rossi generated more shot attempts than Marner, a puck wizard. Boldy was a better goal scorer than Rossi, but only by 2 percentage points.
That isn't something that happens by accident. Rossi’s a first-round talent whom the organization seems to view as an underachiever, but who is quietly overachieving. The fact that the Wild limited Rossi throughout the playoffs is inexcusable.
Hynes could've benefitted more from this lineup against the Vegas Golden Knights:
- Boldy - Rossi - Kaprizov
- Mats Zuccarello - Eriksson Ek - Hartman
- Foligno - Freddy Gaudreau - Marcus Johansson
- Gustav Nyquist - Yakov Trenin - Justin Brazeau
How did Rossi perform compared to Eriksson Ek and Hartman?
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G/60
- Rossi: 1.8
- Hartman: 1.15
- Eriksson Ek: 0
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P/60
- Hartman: 3.44
- Rossi: 2.7
- Eriksson Ek: 1.36
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G%
- Hartman: 61.5%
- Rossi: 60%
- Eriksson Ek: 50%
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Goals Above Expected (GAE)
- Rossi: 1.6
- Hartman: -0.1
- Eriksson Ek: -2
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Goals Above Shooting Talent (GAST)
- Rossi: 1.7
- Hartman: -0.1
- Eriksson Ek: -1.8
Hartman performed better in terms of P/60 and G%. Hartman deserved top-six minutes. However, Hynes could've put him with Eriksson Ek and Zuccarello. They're better linemates than Nyquist, and Hartman’s a natural wing.
Rossi produced the best G/60 and GAE. While Hartman was red hot, he still finished with a negative GAE. Rossi still managed to have better goal production despite being with Trenin and Brazeau.
Eriksson Ek was the worst producer of the three. However, his defense is elite, and he remained on the top line. He would've still been an elite shutdown center with Zuccarello and Hartman.
Was this lineup winning the Stanley Cup? No. However, they'd have a better shot at advancing past the first round to show progression.
They would've given Edmonton Oilers’ goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard problems, but we've seen the Wild make goalies look like Vezina trophy winners. The Dallas Stars are an advanced version of the Wild when it comes to scoring depth.
What should the lines look like on opening night?
- Hartman - Rossi - Kaprizov
- Boldy - Danila Yurov - Vladimir Tarasenko
- Zuccarello - Eriksson Ek - Ohgren
- Foligno - Nico Sturm - Trenin
Rossi continues to grow with Kaprizov
Rossi has shown that he doesn't need Kaprizov to overachieve. While Kaprizov empowers everyone he plays with, Rossi has produced without him. That’s why Rossi deserves more ice time with Kaprizov. Hartman also should play on Kaprizov’s line.
Hartman still gets a top-six opportunity
Hartman playing on the top line is a controversial move, but here's the thing. Hartman has top-line experience and chemistry with Kaprizov. This time, Hartman will be playing on Kaprizov’s opposite wing, rather than at center, becoming Minnesota’s Brad Marchand lite.
Kaprizov and Zuccarello can also have individual success
Kaprizov and Zuccarello are like Marco and Polo. However, they rely too much on passing instead of taking shots. Kaprizov will shoot the puck more while playing with Rossi and Hartman.
Rossi can set up Kaprizov. While it won't be as flashy as Zuccarello or Boldy's passing, Kaprizov will remain productive. Kaprizov played with Victor Rask and won the Calder Trophy. Rossi is much better than Rask. Zuccarello can focus on helping Ohgren gain more confidence as he adapts to the NHL.
Zuccarello continues his old magic
Zuccarello continues playing well in his late 30s while mentoring Ohgren. The Wild need Ohgren to grow as an NHL goal scorer, and Zuccarello can help with that. Zuccarello can utilize his high-end creativity to maximize Ohgren’s shot. Eriksson Ek's the perfect net front presence.
Eriksson Ek and Ohgren already have a connection other than being Swedish. Ohgren is becoming Mr. September in training thanks to Eriksson Ek setting an example.
Thanks to Ohgren’s father, Andreas, as well. He's the real MVP. Andreas is a professional trainer for NHL players, including Gabriel Landeskog, Nicklas Backstrom, and Jesper Boqvist. So, for Andreas to get his son looking like a machine is encouraging for Guerin's future. While Eriksson Ek and Zuccarello mentor Ohgren, Boldy and Tarasenko can mentor Yurov.
Boldy can temporarily bring back prime Tarasenko
Aside from Kaprizov, Boldy is the best player to maximize Tarasenko. Hartman doesn't have the puck skills like Boldy to maximize Tarasenko. Boldy's contract is turning out to be one of the league’s best bargains, giving Tarasenko better security to mentor Yurov.
Yurov gets to establish himself as a top-six center by playing a middle-six role. That relieves pressure from Yurov as the center of focus. The more time Yurov spends with Boldy, the more it will unleash Yurov.
Overall, the Wild have a better top-nine with the configuration above. Yurov and Ohgren haven't established themselves in the NHL, where they'll need veteran support to balance the lines. Trenin and Foligno have a big center with speed in Sturm to win faceoffs for them. There's enough support for Rossi to thrive.
Rossi may consider a bridge deal, and the Wild should consider offering him one. Rossi needs to view this as an opportunity to secure a better raise in the future. Guerin and Hynes will soon acknowledge his true value. However, it's time for the Wild to maximize him after quietly establishing his presence in the spotlight.
Hynes can't continue to put Rossi in a bottom-six role. Rossi has the potential to be a top-line center, but it will take more time and experience to develop. The Wild have something brewing for the 2025-26 season, and Rossi fits that picture. Minnesota should still be happy that Rossi fell to 9th in the 2020 draft. Let's continue supporting his fight from death to getting his name on the Stanley Cup.
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