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  • Can Kirill Kaprizov Live Up To Highest-Paid-In-the-NHL Billing?


    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    "Dolla Bill Kirill" is about to live up to the name. So long as Kirill Kaprizov signs in Minnesota, he's going to be an incredibly wealthy man sometime in July. Minnesota Wild owner Mr. Craig Leipold has vowed that no one will pay Kaprizov more money than Minnesota will. However, lately, it's possible that no NHL team will pay any player more than the Wild are preparing to pay their superstar.

    On Monday's 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman repeated some hot goss he got from NHL sources. "There are people in the league who believe this will end up being the NHL's highest-paid player," the insider said. "That in this next wave of contracts, with the cap going up... feel that Kaprizov's going to be No. 1 on the list. We'll see."

    The numbers we've seen as educated guesses for that contract figure are pretty staggering. The Athletic's Michael Russo and Joe Smith are throwing out anywhere between $14 million and $16 million for an AAV. $14 million would be notable enough, tying Leon Draisaitl (whose new deal starts next season) for the largest cap hit in the NHL.

    But $16 million? Damn! We're possibly talking about one of the highest cap hits for a player, ever. A $16 million AAV would represent 15.4% of the $104 million salary cap, the highest since Connor McDavid's 15.7% from his 2017 contract. 

    That's a lot of money and a ton of responsibility. If Kaprizov is the highest-paid player -- or even "merely" the highest-paid winger -- that will come with a lot of scrutiny. McDavid (and Draisaitl) have dragged a flawed Edmonton Oilers squad to a Stanley Cup Final. Kaprizov will be expected to do the same thing: Consistently be among the league's best and lead his team to a Stanley Cup. 

    We know Kaprizov's worth a ton of money. Is he worth that much?

    Kaprizov has a great case based on his production alone. Over the past four years, Kaprizov is tied with David Pastrnak for third in the NHL in goals per game (0.60), behind only Auston Matthews and Draisaitl. In terms of points, he's tied with Matthews and Mitch Marner for sixth in points per game (1.27).

    Of course, points aren't everything. So, to determine overall effectiveness, we can look at Evolving-Hockey's Standings Points Above Replacement metric. On there, Kaprizov is 13th in the NHL with 22.8 SPAR over the last four years, just between Roope Hintz (22.9) and Quinn Hughes (22.7). The names above Kaprizov are the usual suspects: McDavid, Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Pastrnak, Jason Robertson, Draisaitl, Matthew Tkachuk, Marner, Elias Pettersson, Nikita Kucherov, and Sasha Barkov

    However, putting Kaprizov 13th might be a touch misleading. He's missed 64 games of a possible 324 during that time. So let's now put everyone on an even footing and see where he lands when we look at SPAR per hour (minimum 3,000 minutes):

    1. McDavid, 0.337 SPAR/60
    2. Matthews, 0.318
    3. Pastrnak, 0.285
    4. Tkachuk, 0.273
    5. MacKinnon, 0.270
    6. Robertson, 0.267
    7. Joe Pavelski (retired), 0.259
    8. Hintz, 0.255
    T-9. KAPRIZOV, 0.249
    T-9. Pettersson, 0.249

    Either way... we see a similar placing for Kaprizov. He's the sixth-best winger in the NHL in terms of raw SPAR, and the fourth-best active winger in SPAR per hour. Does that mean he's not worth the money Minnesota's about to pay him?

    Well, that depends.

    Is there an argument for Kaprizov being the best player in the NHL? No, not really. Kaprizov was an early favorite for the Hart Trophy until he got injured around Christmas, but even so, he was only fifth in points per game last season. Even if you doubled his 4.0 SPAR to get to an 82-game pace, he'd still lag behind Draisaitl (9.6 SPAR) and Thomas Harley (8.4).

    Through that lens, making Kaprizov the top-paid player in the league is arguably an overpay, but in a more practical sense: Who cares?

    Coming into the season, Kaprizov ranked in the 2A tier on The Athletic's NHL Player Tier List. That list is generated with considerable input from NHL executives, coaches, and more. After this season, not to mention his five-goal, nine-point playoff performance, he may sneak into the 1C tier, or perhaps higher. Last season, there were just three wingers in Tier 1: Kucherov (1B), Pastrnak (1C), and Tkachuk (1C). 

    Even if you think all three players are better than Kaprizov, the Wild have no shot at getting Kucherov or Tkachuk, for any dollar amount. The rebuilding Bruins might or might not put Pastrnak on the block, but he'd have a fair amount of suitors. The odds that Minnesota would land him are also low.

    Meanwhile, Minnesota does have a good shot at landing Kaprizov. They can pay him more than anyone, and are fully willing to do so. The Wild don't get chances to land even borderline top-tier guys often. They took a chance on something comparable 13 years ago with the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter contracts. Kaprizov is considerably closer to the elite than either of those guys, and for a franchise like Minnesota, any price is worth it. 

    Stars matter in the NHL, as the Colorado Avalanche found out when they lost Mikko Rantanen, only for him to eliminate their team with a Game 7 hat trick. If you're the Wild, you pay whatever it takes to avoid that fate for yourself.

    The good thing is: they know it.

    Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

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    5 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    i hear you but from Hynes point of view - he has to have confidence in the group he assembles. rossi lost his confidence with a subpar showing to end the season. again stats show 9 pts in 22 games.

    OK, I'm calling bullsh.. on this one. A complete double standard for you, JH and BG. Thank you for defining what a sub-par showing is and what level of performance it takes to lose the coach's confidence as it helps illustrate the point.

    Yakov Trenin had one point, an assist, while averaging 13:35 minutes per game in his first twenty five games in a Wild sweater. He went the entire month of November, 15 games, without a single point. He really ramped it up in December, scoring 2G/2A in nine of the fourteen games that he played in bringing his season total to five points in 33 games. Wow, all of that (using your words) sub-par performance for only $3.5M per season. That had to really give Hynes a lot of confidence in him.

    But wait, it gets even better. January through April, he went on a heater and scored 5G/4A, 9 whole points, in just 43 games. Maybe Hynes' confidence in Rossi would have been higher if he would have scored 9 in 43 rather than 9 in 22? And imagine that, all for the paltry sum of $3.5M.

    Thank goodness we've got Trenin signed for another three years at only $3.5M per. The confidence that his below sub-par performance this past season instills in Wild Nation is truly intoxicating. And thank goodness we can finally say good riddance to Marco Rossi and the performance that he gave on his ELC. He really screwed us over, didn't he, ODC? Thank you for showing me and hopefully others the light!

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    8 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Kaprizov is THE best player we have and deserves top line duty (Rossi does not)

    You are correct on one thing, ODC, Kaprizov is the best player on the Wild roster. You claim in earlier posts that the Wild don't have a coaching problem but a lack of skill problem. Thank you once again for allowing me to prove my point.

    I would assume that you do not feel that Kaprizov is part of the lack of skill problem? Yet in games 4, 5 and 6 the Wild lost three games in a row after jumping out to a 2-1 series lead. In games 4 through 6, Vegas scored ten goals and Kaprizov was on the ice for six of them. In the three consecutive losses, Kaprizov scored one goal and had one assist and was a combined -4.

    I think he scored three of his five goals in the series on the PP, one at even strength and one empty netter (correct me if I'm wrong which you certainly will). He did that on the top line while getting top line minutes with top line players while Rossi scored his two goals at 5 on 5 on the fourth line with a couple of boat anchors for wingers in limited minutes.

    Did KK suddenly become an unskilled player following the game 3 win at home? Of course not! Cassidy and the Golden Knights made adjustments, the correct adjustments, and Hynes (via Guerin) and the Wild didn't. Vegas didn't magically become more skilled, they figured out a way to use their skills better.

    What did JH and BG do following game 3? They buried their heads in the sand so they didn't have to heed the warnings of the ghosts of first round playoff series losses hovering around them. They whispered to each other, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it, right?". "We just won two in a row. Their netminder is struggling, ours is hot and we've got 'em on the ropes.Stay the course." "How can we screw with Rossi even more?"

    Well that course led to another first round exit after leading the series 2-1 and gaining home ice advantage heading into game 4. and Kaprizov didn't lose his skills, instead poor coaching didn't put him in a position to use his skills effectively. And as much as you are sick and tired of reading this, poor coaching and management also did the same to Marco Rossi.

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    9 hours ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

    OK, I'm calling bullsh.. on this one. A complete double standard for you, JH and BG. Thank you for defining what a sub-par showing is and what level of performance it takes to lose the coach's confidence as it helps illustrate the point.

    Yakov Trenin had one point, an assist, while averaging 13:35 minutes per game in his first twenty five games in a Wild sweater. He went the entire month of November, 15 games, without a single point. He really ramped it up in December, scoring 2G/2A in nine of the fourteen games that he played in bringing his season total to five points in 33 games. Wow, all of that (using your words) sub-par performance for only $3.5M per season. That had to really give Hynes a lot of confidence in him.

    But wait, it gets even better. January through April, he went on a heater and scored 5G/4A, 9 whole points, in just 43 games. Maybe Hynes' confidence in Rossi would have been higher if he would have scored 9 in 43 rather than 9 in 22? And imagine that, all for the paltry sum of $3.5M.

    Thank goodness we've got Trenin signed for another three years at only $3.5M per. The confidence that his below sub-par performance this past season instills in Wild Nation is truly intoxicating. And thank goodness we can finally say good riddance to Marco Rossi and the performance that he gave on his ELC. He really screwed us over, didn't he, ODC? Thank you for showing me and hopefully others the light!

    OK, I'm calling bullsh.. on this one. A complete double standard for you, JH and BG. Thank you for defining what a sub-par showing is and what level of performance it takes to lose the coach's confidence as it helps illustrate the point. No problem

    Yakov Trenin had one point, an assist, while averaging 13:35 minutes per game in his first twenty five games in a Wild sweater. He went the entire month of November, 15 games, without a single point. He really ramped it up in December, scoring 2G/2A in nine of the fourteen games that he played in bringing his season total to five points in 33 games. Wow, all of that (using your words) sub-par performance for only $3.5M per season. That had to really give Hynes a lot of confidence in him. You know there is more than points to evaluate a player worth? Trenin looked bad to you this PO? I think he was one of the best Wild players out there during R1

    But wait, it gets even better. January through April, he went on a heater and scored 5G/4A, 9 whole points, in just 43 games. You are a bit too obsessed with stats and compare different type of players to each other to fit your narrative 

    Maybe Hynes' confidence in Rossi would have been higher if he would have scored 9 in 43 rather than 9 in 22? And imagine that, all for the paltry sum of $3.5M. Maybe it would be higher if he could trust him to stand up against a tough competition 

    Thank goodness we've got Trenin signed for another three years at only $3.5M per. The confidence that his below sub-par performance this past season instills in Wild Nation is truly intoxicating. And thank goodness we can finally say good riddance to Marco Rossi and the performance that he gave on his ELC. He really screwed us over, didn't he, ODC? Thank you for showing me and hopefully others the light! Anytime!

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    6 hours ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

    You are correct on one thing, ODC, Kaprizov is the best player on the Wild roster. You claim in earlier posts that the Wild don't have a coaching problem but a lack of skill problem. Thank you once again for allowing me to prove my point.

    I would assume that you do not feel that Kaprizov is part of the lack of skill problem? Yet in games 4, 5 and 6 the Wild lost three games in a row after jumping out to a 2-1 series lead. In games 4 through 6, Vegas scored ten goals and Kaprizov was on the ice for six of them. In the three consecutive losses, Kaprizov scored one goal and had one assist and was a combined -4.

    I think he scored three of his five goals in the series on the PP, one at even strength and one empty netter (correct me if I'm wrong which you certainly will). He did that on the top line while getting top line minutes with top line players while Rossi scored his two goals at 5 on 5 on the fourth line with a couple of boat anchors for wingers in limited minutes.

    Did KK suddenly become an unskilled player following the game 3 win at home? Of course not! Cassidy and the Golden Knights made adjustments, the correct adjustments, and Hynes (via Guerin) and the Wild didn't. Vegas didn't magically become more skilled, they figured out a way to use their skills better.

    What did JH and BG do following game 3? They buried their heads in the sand so they didn't have to heed the warnings of the ghosts of first round playoff series losses hovering around them. They whispered to each other, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it, right?". "We just won two in a row. Their netminder is struggling, ours is hot and we've got 'em on the ropes.Stay the course." "How can we screw with Rossi even more?"

    Well that course led to another first round exit after leading the series 2-1 and gaining home ice advantage heading into game 4. and Kaprizov didn't lose his skills, instead poor coaching didn't put him in a position to use his skills effectively. And as much as you are sick and tired of reading this, poor coaching and management also did the same to Marco Rossi.

    You are correct on one thing, ODC, Kaprizov is the best player on the Wild roster. You claim in earlier posts that the Wild don't have a coaching problem but a lack of skill problem. Thank you once again for allowing me to prove my point.

    Which was? 

    I would assume that you do not feel that Kaprizov is part of the lack of skill problem? Yet in games 4, 5 and 6 the Wild lost three games in a row after jumping out to a 2-1 series lead. In games 4 through 6, Vegas scored ten goals and Kaprizov was on the ice for six of them. In the three consecutive losses, Kaprizov scored one goal and had one assist and was a combined -4. 

    Stats again - there are more ways to judge players worth….Kaprizov is heart and soul of our team, is difficult to play against and works the boards extremely well. Too many intangibles to list besides scoring! 

     

    I think he scored three of his five goals in the series on the PP, one at even strength and one empty netter (correct me if I'm wrong which you certainly will). I trust you

     

    He did that on the top line while getting top line minutes with top line players while Rossi scored his two goals at 5 on 5 on the fourth line with a couple of boat anchors for wingers in limited minutes.  Rossi benefited from playing with a more grizzly pair, Trenin did a ton more work than the other 2 on his line, and line produced ok. 

    Rossi did not deserve top line minutes - it’s that simple 

     

    Did KK suddenly become an unskilled player following the game 3 win at home? Of course not! Cassidy and the Golden Knights made adjustments, the correct adjustments, and Hynes (via Guerin) and the Wild didn't. Vegas didn't magically become more skilled, they figured out a way to use their skills better. Kap does not equate Rossi. Rossi could not survive tough minutes and rightfully was where he should have been - hidden out of sight from Top 6 of heavy Vegas elite 

    What did JH and BG do following game 3? They buried their heads in the sand so they didn't have to heed the warnings of the ghosts of first round playoff series losses hovering around them. They whispered to each other, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it, right?". "We just won two in a row. Their netminder is struggling, ours is hot and we've got 'em on the ropes.Stay the course." "How can we screw with Rossi even more?" You think they were thinking about Rossi? Believe it or not - wild world may mot revolve around Rossi

     

    Well that course led to another first round exit after leading the series 2-1 and gaining home ice advantage heading into game 4. Right we lost because we didn’t allow Rossi to go up against Eichel, Stone and Dorofeev - that would have shaken them !

    and Kaprizov didn't lose his skills, instead poor coaching didn't put him in a position to use his skills effectively. And as much as you are sick and tired of reading this, poor coaching and management also did the same to Marco Rossi.

    Poor coaching made Rossi timid and scared? One dimensional finesse player? Unable to defend or win board battles to save his life? Yeap - that’s on Hynes!

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    4 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    You know there is more than points to evaluate a player worth?

    But still you do that with Rossi and 9 in 22? Everyone is entitled to their opinions and I respect that. But be consistent in how you arrive at them and don't apply double standards.

    I would understand if you said that Rossi's role is to be a scorer and he wasn't scoring. Hard to argue with numbers and my rebuttal opinion would be that he wasn't put in a position to be a scorer. Both opinions could be valid to a certain extent and not worth arguing any further.

    But you rely on 9 in 22 and complain when someone rebuts you with 51 in 60. You can't have it both ways and have your opinions be valid.

    Don't worry, ODC, I'll still respect you in the morning. Mostly because you appear to be a fellow long-suffering Wild fan.

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    1 hour ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

    But still you do that with Rossi and 9 in 22? Everyone is entitled to their opinions and I respect that. But be consistent in how you arrive at them and don't apply double standards.

    I would understand if you said that Rossi's role is to be a scorer and he wasn't scoring. Hard to argue with numbers and my rebuttal opinion would be that he wasn't put in a position to be a scorer. Both opinions could be valid to a certain extent and not worth arguing any further.

    But you rely on 9 in 22 and complain when someone rebuts you with 51 in 60. You can't have it both ways and have your opinions be valid.

    Don't worry, ODC, I'll still respect you in the morning. Mostly because you appear to be a fellow long-suffering Wild fan.

    Where was the double standard applied? I stood by my point saying that Rossi’s play regressed towards the end of the year and it got abysmal in the first two games of the playoffs, forcing Hynes to make the switch and promote Harty.
     

    I don’t rely solely on stats but offer them to support my claims. Rossi stats took a dive, which is not uncommon - players can go thru ups and downs, but they provide other value to the team to stay relevant and valuable - but Rossi did not. If he is not scoring - he is a waste of space. This was very visible in R1.  

    Yes he scored two goals, but overall he was still timid and lacked the drive. He was a liability out on the ice. He could not hold his own against Top players for Vegas (and that is who lined up against our best) so Hynes did the right thing and played/hid him against easier matchups.  
    I bet if you asked the team of who came thru this PO - Rossi’s name would be towards the bottom of a list, just above Nyquil. Harty, Foligno and Trenin brought more - don’t worry looking for points on them - it’s not always points. 
    cheers

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    3 hours ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

    But still you do that with Rossi and 9 in 22? Everyone is entitled to their opinions and I respect that. But be consistent in how you arrive at them and don't apply double standards.

    9 in 22 isn't awful, it's almost .5/gm. If players were demoted for slumps, Boldy would be in Iowa occasionally. Several other players wouldn't even be on the team, their entire career is a slump.

    Rossi's decline in performance may coincide with his low ball offer from Billy. He is human after all, and it was a slap in the face after everything Rossi has done for this team.

    No other team in the NHL would bury their season's second leading scorer on the 4th line in the playoffs. Sorry, argue all you want ODC, it just wouldn't happen. There is more to this story and it's pretty easy to figure out what Billy was up to. This was not a Hynes decision either, 100% Billy. Hynes is a puppet that Billy has total control over, he's just a proxy coach.

    Rossi still performed in his first ever playoffs, on the fourth line, with minimal minutes. To argue that it's because of Trenin's play is ludacris. If Rossi was on the second line, with two other top 6 forwards and twice the minutes, he would have produced even more.

    This team is MORE of a business than most people know. From the top down it only exists to generate revenue for the owner and the NHL. They don't care about the fans or even winning a Stanley Cup, just butts in seats. They know the people here better than the people know themselves. They'll keep spending their hard earned money on just good enough.....indefinitely.

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    1 hour ago, Scalptrash said:

    From the top down it only exists to generate revenue for the owner and the NHL.

    You are exactly right and I've watched this business side play out with much sadness and disappointment the past three seasons in Arizona. I'm retired and spend winters in Phoenix. As a hockey fan, up until this season, I got to watch a lot of games at the best venue in the NHL, Mullet Arena.

    I got to watch the Wild there twice a season and always sat front row behind the benches, ramp parking, unlimited food and drinks included in that section and never paid more than $250. When the Florida teams came to town I could get the same deal for under $100. An absolute steal and in a 4,800 seat arena. When the Wild were playing it was like a home game with all the snowbirds and vacationers wearing their green and red and yelling at the top of their lungs.

    And then Gary Bettman and the Board of Governors stepped in and pulled the plug. It wasn't that the franchise was losing money, they just weren't making enough money for the league. Coyote players loved living and playing there, opposing teams and their fans loved getting out of the cold and playing golf for a day or two and watching some hockey. It was great for everyone, except for the bottom line of the league's books.

     
     
     

    I still get my Wild live game fixes by driving to LA, Anaheim and Vegas, all four or five hours away, but they are just not as fun and a heck of a lot more expensive. It is a business more than a game and that is truly sad.

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    1 hour ago, Scalptrash said:

    9 in 22 isn't awful, it's almost .5/gm. If players were demoted for slumps, Boldy would be in Iowa occasionally. Several other players wouldn't even be on the team, their entire career is a slump.

    Rossi's decline in performance may coincide with his low ball offer from Billy. He is human after all, and it was a slap in the face after everything Rossi has done for this team.

    No other team in the NHL would bury their season's second leading scorer on the 4th line in the playoffs. Sorry, argue all you want ODC, it just wouldn't happen. There is more to this story and it's pretty easy to figure out what Billy was up to. This was not a Hynes decision either, 100% Billy. Hynes is a puppet that Billy has total control over, he's just a proxy coach.

    Rossi still performed in his first ever playoffs, on the fourth line, with minimal minutes. To argue that it's because of Trenin's play is ludacris. If Rossi was on the second line, with two other top 6 forwards and twice the minutes, he would have produced even more.

    This team is MORE of a business than most people know. From the top down it only exists to generate revenue for the owner and the NHL. They don't care about the fans or even winning a Stanley Cup, just butts in seats. They know the people here better than the people know themselves. They'll keep spending their hard earned money on just good enough.....indefinitely.

    Well my view point is shared by coach and GM so I think I’ll take that 

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    40 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Well my view point is shared by coach and GM so I think I’ll take that

     

    Wow, I didn't see that one coming! Aligning yourself with the failed GM and his ventriloquist dummy HC and hypnotically repeating their spin and rhetoric in zombie-like fashion. How much are they paying you? Are you getting Trenin money? I hope so.

    Keep this up and you'll be centering the Beasts, Brazeau and Trenin, on the fourth line next year. Doesn't matter how old you are or what your skill set is, heck, you probably don't even have to know how to skate. Just remember to tell Billy that you are one of his guys and he'll probably give you term and a NMC.

    Good luck, ODC!

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    10 minutes ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

    Wow, I didn't see that one coming! Aligning yourself with the failed GM and his ventriloquist dummy HC and hypnotically repeating their spin and rhetoric in zombie-like fashion. How much are they paying you? Are you getting Trenin money? I hope so.

    Keep this up and you'll be centering the Beasts, Brazeau and Trenin, on the fourth line next year. Doesn't matter how old you are or what your skill set is, heck, you probably don't even have to know how to skate. Just remember to tell Billy that you are one of his guys and he'll probably give you term and a NMC.

    Good luck, ODC!

    he will only fail if Kaprizov does not resign, the rest is no biggie. i can live with braz and nyquist trades somewhat (although those were horrible). But - the signing (or failure to sign) Kap is what will decide Bill's worth (not Rossi). 

    and no sadly, i am not making Trenin money 😞 

     

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    51 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    no sadly, i am not making Trenin money

    Neither am I, Buddy! Have to take off for a couple weeks. Take care and keep the rest of the yahoos on their toes.

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