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By Robert Brent -
When Kirill Kaprizov finally made the jump to the NHL from Russia, the flashy winger instantly treated Minnesota Wild fans to a true superstar talent. Though he’s played just five seasons in St. Paul, he’s already made his mark as one of the most notable players in the Wild organization’s history.
His quick start has led to speculation about how far he can take his already storied career. That speculation gained some fuel recently when The Athletic published its annual list of where current players stand in their bid to make the Hockey Hall of Fame.
Kirill Kaprizov made his debut on the list in Tier 5, or “Check back in a few years.” That part of the list is reserved for players who have had relatively short careers, but if their pace continues, they’ll be strong contenders for enshrinement.
The future Hall of Fame discussion is classic fodder for the summer news cycle, so let’s jump into speculation about Kirill Kaprizov’s chances.
What Makes a Hall of Famer?
Before diving into Kaprizov’s career outlook, let’s look at what makes a Hall of Fame player. For some, it’s pure accumulation of stats, while others amass careers full of winning and team accomplishments. Remember, it’s the Hockey Hall of Fame, not the NHL Hall of Fame, so international accolades also count towards a player's candidacy.
For an up-to-date look at what makes a player Hall of Fame worthy, let’s analyze the Hall of Fame classes since 2020 and the things they accomplished in their career that got them there. We’ll only be looking at inducted forwards and will look at their career goals, assists, points, individual awards, team accomplishments, and international accolades.
Note that the international achievements encompass Olympic medals, IHF World Championship, World Junior glory, and World Cup of Hockey success. Meanwhile, individual accomplishments include major trophy wins (Hart, Art Ross, etc.) or being named to the NHL's list of the 100 greatest players of all time.
We can gather a few things about making the Hall of Fame based on this list. First, it’s clear that while winning a Stanley Cup is less important than it used to be, you still have to win something. Pierre Turgeon is the only forward from the last few classes who doesn’t have either a Cup or an international medal to his name.
A second key takeaway is that counting stats still matter. Every inductee except Pavel Datsyuk eclipsed 1,000 points, but he was inducted for being one of the greatest defensive players in the history of the game.
You have to have something else truly special if you aren’t going to score 1000. Similarly, every inductee played over 1000 games, or came within one season of doing so, and most eclipsed 400 goals.
Where Kaprizov Stands
Now that we’ve established what it takes to achieve hockey’s ultimate accomplishment, we can talk about where Kaprizov stands in his career. Let’s take a look at his career so far using the same metrics used for the other players.
At first glance, it may seem like Kaprizov would struggle to find himself in Hall of Fame discussions. While it’s true that he has a long way to go in the pure quantity of statistics, he’s well on his way.
Kaprizov is scoring at a 1.21 points-per-game pace, which far outdoes the list of recent Hall of Fame inductees, who scored at a 0.89 points-per-game pace. Because Kaprizov is still in his prime, he hasn’t yet entered the decline phase that often drags down a player’s stats.
Even with that being the case, Kaprizov is giving himself quite the cushion. If he ages gracefully, he should be able to keep himself above .89 points-per-game with relative ease. While a player typically reaches their peak in their late 20s and early 30s, several NHL players, such as Anze Kopitar, Patrick Kane, and Mats Zuccarello, remain productive into their late 30s.
To speculate, Kaprizov could average around 1 point per game over the next seven years, which would take him to his age-35 season. That would put him around 900 points, depending on how many games he plays in those seasons.
However, Kaprizov might face an uphill battle amassing individual and team awards. The team doesn’t seem to be a Stanley Cup contender at the moment. Kaprizov won the Calder Trophy in his rookie season, but has yet to earn another award since then.
Kaprizov has received Hart Trophy votes in four of his five seasons, but he’ll have difficulty winning an award like that if he can’t stay healthy. The winger averages about 64 games per season in his career, and awards generally go to players who play full seasons.
However, Kaprizov’s substantial international accomplishments are one area that could benefit his candidacy. The forward captured a bronze medal in the 2019 World Championships and a silver and a bronze at the 2016 and 2017 World Juniors while representing Russia.
He’s also an Olympic Gold Medalist as an Olympic Athlete from Russia in the 2018 Olympics.
While the 2018 Olympics are a fascinating case because Kaprizov didn’t actually get to represent his country and there was no NHL participation, the record still shows that he’s a gold medalist.
Many of his contemporaries, such as John Tavares or Steven Stamkos, are unlikely to have that opportunity due to the NHL not competing in the Olympic Games during their primes.
Will Kaprizov Be the Wild’s First Hall Of Famer?
Kaprizov has gotten off to a hot start in his NHL career. He has the makings of a potential Hall of Famer, but he’ll need to sustain his excellence over a long period to do so. He has all the talent, and the Wild are committed to making him a centerpiece of the franchise.
The biggest question will be his injury status, but if he can sustain a long run with a clean bill of health, he should have the numbers. A Stanley Cup victory or an individual award, such as the Art Ross or Hart Trophy, would be a significant boon to his chances.
If Kaprizov can continue his pace towards being enshrined in Toronto, he may be the first player to earn the honor who is primarily known for his time with the Minnesota Wild (assuming he re-signs with the team).
The Wild have had several players in their relatively short history who are in the proverbial “Hall of Very Good.” Mikko Koivu, Marian Gaborik, and Ryan Suter are all among the players who played in Minnesota who had notable careers. Still, they probably won’t be hearing their names called.
On the other hand, players like Marc-Andre Fleury and Brent Burns are either shoe-ins or have outstanding cases (both ranked in the top two tiers in the Athletic’s previously mentioned article). Still, they won’t be remembered primarily for their time in St. Paul.
Kaprizov may not be a lock for the Hall of Fame today, but if his trajectory continues, the conversation may shift from 'if' to 'when.' In a franchise still searching for its first true legend, Kaprizov has a chance to become not just the Wild’s most outstanding player but the first to achieve immortality.
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