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  • Can Danila Yurov Be An Ace Up the Wild's Sleeve In the Playoffs?


    Image courtesy of Eric Bolte - Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    The KHL playoffs are ongoing, and on Friday, Danila Yurov found himself on the ice for the first time since February 15. Unfortunately for his hopes of winning back-to-back Gagarin Cups, Metallurg Magnitogorsk fell to 0-2 in their best-of-seven first-round series. Of course, an early exit in the KHL might not close the book on Yurov playing in more playoff games.

    The Minnesota Wild have to be hopeful for the possibility of having Yurov at their disposal for the playoffs, which are now less than three weeks away. However, it's not as simple as, say, signing Zeev Buium once his season at Denver is over. When it comes to the Wild and Russia, how could it be any other way?

    Yurov will be in a situation where he's technically under contract until May 31 and unable to sign with Minnesota unless the team agrees to release him. It's possible -- Marat Khusnutdinov was able to exit his contract early -- but Metallurg is under no obligation to accommodate Yurov. Any fan who had to sit through the ordeal of bringing Kirill Kaprizov to North America has earned the right to cast any hope for a smooth, uncomplicated transaction with suspicion.

    Until a definitive answer to this question comes up, you can expect the Will They/Won't They? machine to hit full-steam in the next few weeks. It will be a massive question throughout April, and it'll likely obscure an even more important one.

    Namely, how likely is Yurov to help the Wild in the playoffs, anyway?

    It's easy to draw a one-for-one parallel between Yurov and Kaprizov. By the time Kaprizov got to the Wild, he was a highly-touted forward with 200-plus KHL games and a Gagarin Cup under his belt. Similarly, Yurov is considered a top prospect, has played 200 KHL games, and lifted the Garagin himself. But there's one big difference between the two.

    Kaprizov arrived in the NHL fully formed as a 23-year-old. He was just three months shy of his 24th birthday. His resume came with not one but four playoff runs in the KHL. There was no development left, essentially.

    Meanwhile, Yurov would be thrown into the NHL playoffs at just 21 years and four months. Beyond that, Kaprizov was ruled ineligible for the playoffs during the COVID bubble, meaning he got to log 50-plus NHL games before seeing postseason action. Yurov's season can't end until April 1 and could easily go longer. If you allow for the fastest possible timeline -- an April 1 elimination and 72 hours to negotiate a release, sign a contract, fly halfway across the world, figure out where to live, etc. -- Yurov will get five games, max, before seeing the playoffs.

    That's such a whirlwind that it feels impossible to know what to expect. Especially since we don't have a baseline of what Kaprizov might have done in August 2019 if he had been playoff-eligible.

    But do we have anything to go off of? Looking back since the 2010 Draft, there are few examples of a Russian forward who was a bonafide, top-level prospect and went straight from the end of the KHL season to have a meaningful role in the Stanley Cup playoffs. As far as I can tell, it's happened just once: Last year, Ivan Miroshnichenko played six regular-season games for the Washington Capitals before getting in the playoffs. 

    He played one game, registering zero points and two shots in nine minutes and 31 seconds. So, we don't have much information on KHL prospects going straight from Russia to the playoffs. 

    However, we have more information on what many top Russian prospects, who had the benefit of acclimating to a North American league before the postseason, did in their first trips to the playoffs. Let's take every first-round Russian forward drafted from 2010 to 2019*, plus a couple of bonus prospects, and look at their playoff debut (minimum two games).

    Vladimir Tarasenko, 2012-13 (age 22): 6 GP; 4 goals, 0 assists
    Valeri Nichushkin, 2013-14 (age 18): 6 GP; 1 goal, 1 assist
    Nikita Kucherov, 2013-14 (age 20): 2 GP; 1 goal, 0 assists
    Evgeny Kuznetsov, 2014-15 (age 22): 14 GP; 5 goals, 2 assists
    Vladislav Namestnikov, 2014-15 (age 21): 12 GP; 0 goals, 1 assist
    Pavel Buchnevich, 2016-17 (age 21): 5 GP; 0 goals, 1 assist
    Andrei Svechnikov, 2018-19 (age 18): 9 GP; 3 goals, 2 assists
    Denis Gurianov, 2019-20 (age 22): 27 GP; 9 goals, 8 assists
    Klim Kostin, 2022-23 (age 23): 12 GP; 3 goals, 2 assists
    Vasily Podkolzin, 2023-24 (age 22): 2 GP; 0 goals, 0 assists

    That's 10 players who managed to make it to the NHL and play some kind of role for a playoff team. Combine them all, and we're looking at 26 goals and 17 assists (43 points) in 95 games. For an 82-game pace, that's a fairly solid 22-goal, 37-point season, looking similar to Marco Rossi's rookie year (21 goals, 40 points).

    But of course, we're not looking at the regular season. We'd be talking about a seven-game series, not an 82-game marathon. Compress those paces into a playoff series, and we can expect around two goals and an assist (matching Kaprizov's playoff debut) for a full seven-game affair -- with a ton of variance. That's not a perfect guess. We don't know how big a disadvantage it is to have zero to five regular-season games of NHL experience. Still, it's probably the best guess we've got.

    Is it worth throwing the kid into the fire if Minnesota's "expected" reward is just two goals and three points? Not to get too depressing, but... have you seen the Wild in the playoffs?

    Look back at Minnesota's 2023 series with the Dallas Stars, and you'll see four players (Freddy Gaudreau, Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Johansson) who had multiple goals for the Wild. Go back another year (2022 vs. the St. Louis Blues), and that number drops to two: Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek. Mind you, both of these series went six games. 

    It's possible, even if Minnesota can get Yurov to the NHL and up-to-speed enough so John Hynes will put him in playoff games, that he won't impress. Better players have disappointed in the playoffs -- look how we're waiting for Matt Boldy's postseason breakout. Yurov could easily languish in limited minutes, get shut out by hot goaltending, or simply not be ready for primetime yet. It's a risk.

    However, in the context of the Wild's recent history, it is not huge. The biggest reason for Minnesota's postseason stagnation has been a lack of goals. The Wild have scored just 2.26 goals per game in the playoffs since 2020-21, which is dead-last among the 23 NHL teams with postseason games. When you're looking up at the Seattle Kraken, Montreal Canadiens, and the New York Islanders, it's safe to say you've got a problem generating offense.

    As is the case with Buium, introducing Yurov to the playoff mix would give Minnesota a level of upside that they simply don't have right now. Even when healthy, Minnesota's struggled to produce offense when Kaprizov's not on the ice. This team is largely identical to the one who couldn't score against St. Louis in 2022 or Dallas in 2023. It will probably be difficult to get him to St. Paul, but once he's here, it will not be hard to find a spot where he can add some desperately needed scoring punch.

    *Not including players who've never played in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, such as Alexander Burmistrov, Nail Yakupov, Kirill Marchenko, et al.

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    The Wild are such a mess I don't think Yurov helps anyway.   Yes injuries to key players obviously hurts.  But what hurts more is most of the team plays with nk soul or emotion.  This team has no depth and very few players that care about winning.  Very discouraging to hear Foligno complain about bad luck and such.  I suspect the Wild will initiate some fisticuffs on Monday trying to flex their muscle and show coach Hynes at least fir one game that they may even care.  This team is not very good and not very deserving of all the sellout.  Stick a fork in them.  They are done!  Even if they slide into the playoffs this team doesn't have the heart and soul to get past the first round again.

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    It's better if Yurov rides into next season looking to make the roster.  The situation is fluid depending on the offseaon, but looking to start at 2nd line wing or 3rd line center should be his goal.  

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    I would get input from Yurov and his agent. If they are pushing for him to come over then start building towards the future NOW. I’m more concerned with getting max buy in from our top forward prospect over the next few years. He’s three years older than Bed, YJ, or Cel. as they entered the league. No better way to motivate your own team than internal competition for spots. Everyone is talking about how worn out the Wild’s roster is, well…..

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    As of the expected playoff standings right now, the Wild are the ONLY team with a negative GF/GA differential.  And the team with the least amount of offense in the PO standings.  

    Do I think the Wild will reach the PO's and with their complete starting roster on the ice?  Yes.  Are they going to make it past the 1st round?  50/50.  Does adding Buium and Yurov move the needle for a deeper PO run this season?  Not a chance. 

    They did this with Faber, and he played well, but we still didn't get very far.  Our core team needs to fully recover and get back in sync.  GMBG be nice GM and give OCL his 24-25 playoff insistence, but play smart and keep your guys healthy.  Don't force it only to be eliminated in the next round.  The Wild lost 1/2 of a season essentially with the top Off line and top Def pairing.  It's costly when you are banged up, and the secondary lines have already shown they are not consistent enough to carry the torch.  Build a dynasty.  

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    37 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    Please don’t burn a year of Yurov or Zeev this year.  We are going no where.  It’s not worth it.  It’s better to keep the cap savings for a extra year 

    Agree on this 100%.  Which means this is exactly what bill will do.  Sign them both so they can play 3 games and burn an ELC year

     #dontbedumbbill

    Edited by Pewterschmidt
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    39 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

    Please don’t burn a year of Yurov

    He’ll be 22 in December. He will definitely be signed for this upcoming season. So if I have this right he’s going to get only a two year ELC. I’m pretty sure the 10 game thing is only for 18-19 year old players. ZB would fall into this category. I could be wrong. 

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    From a business standpoint, keeping 3 years ELC, I think, is important. Yurov is a December birthday, and the ELC rules measure the birthday on a new league year. So, Yurov would have to sign a 3 year one, but likely with incentives.

    From a competition standpoint, I think there is a lot to be learned by participating in the playoffs. I think this would benefit both Yurov and Buium to play this season. But, you've got guys sitting in the locker room who have been there pretty much all year. Will this rock the room? I don't think it will because the placeholders knew this was coming. Who does Yurov replace in the lineup? Zeev likely replaces Chisholm/Merrill. 

    I think you bring them in and practice them and play them. This is the way. Get them experience in the postseason, valuable experience they can build off of. They might not be that effective....or, they might be difference makers! What if Yurov ends up with double the goals, or Zeev gets our PP going? Those are big deals that can be built on over the summer. Perhaps that changes what Shooter is willing to trade?

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    27 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

    Clickbait bullshit trade time: Brodin/Madden for ZIbanejad ($1.5m of $8.5m hit retained)/Parssinen/5th

    https://heavy.com/sports/nhl/new-york-rangers/trade-pitch-zibanejad-brodin-blockbuster/

    Can't say I'm thrilled about a guy going from 90 pts to 75 pts to barely scratching 50-60 pts in two seasons time.

    I always found it strange that people write articles based on user's trade proposals.

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    1 hour ago, SkolWild73 said:

    Off topic, but a little more of an update on Kap and Ek.

    I had read on puckpedia both are expected back for Apr. 6th. It was the 1st time I'd seen a date.

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    10 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    I had read on puckpedia both are expected back for Apr. 6th. It was the 1st time I'd seen a date.

    Nice.  Home game against Dallas, plus 6 games to get into form.

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    So 5 games in the regular season and 4 in the playoffs.  ELC still intact.  If he makes an impact to where he makes a difference with the team and then goes into the second round.  I would be fine with burning that first year of the ELC. 

    There really isn't a scenario where having him sit in Iowa for 5 to 10 games is better than him being in St. Paul. 

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    2 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

    Buium with an assist on the game winner(a redirect on a screened goalie), and added a late empty net goal to end Boston College's comeback bid.

    He also had a goal taken away from replay on an offside.  Not sure we see him this year now.  Championship is April 12th, and our last game is April 14th.  

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    Here's what needs to happen. Stop talking about the playoffs like it's a sure thing. One of the teams trailing us could easily go on a .700 win percentage and as we've seen, piling up several losses over eight games is very achievable with this team.

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    Yurov is a few goals away from leading his team. Overall points are down from that season but he's played nearly fifty games. By the time playoffs end for him, I don't think he's showing up to boost the Wild. Zeev either. 

    Don't get the cart ahead of the horse. MN's off-season is what I'm interested to see. 

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    Stop with hysteria - Wild will be in the playoffs…. So what to do w yurov-

    I think they do need Yurov this year as a sort of wild card - no one really scouts him so maybe he can surprise a few people

    So im all for trying to get him over here, and get him this POs on L2 w Boldy and Rossi (stop worrying about that “future” and live in the now! We may not see such a great team again in some time!) Kap is going to back - let’s roll!

    L3 Harty and MJ can join trenin

    and play foligno nyquist and Freddy on 4th

     

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    Ryder Ritchie with 2 goals and 2 assists for Medicine Hat in their 2nd playoff game. Their top PP with Ritchie, Gavin McKenna, and Oasiz Wiesblatt, scored on 3 of 6 opportunities. Wiesblatt had a natural hattrick in their 1st playoff win.

    Medicine Hat finished the regular season with the most goals scored, 3rd best goals against, and the 2nd most points in the standings for the WHL. They could have a long playoff run ahead.

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    Not just that, but Riley Heidt added an apple in a 5-2 lost to Portland, and Kalem Parker had a goal as Calgary takes a 2-0 lead. 

    Yurov's team is down 3-0 and plays tomorrow in an elimination game. If they are eliminated, then contract termination watch starts. 

    But we can't move on without talking about Zeev. What a game last night, as Zeev picked up 2 goals, 1 assist (for not doing much of anything) where 1 goal was called back due to an offsides call that happened well before the play.

    BC ran at Buium all game to try and throw him off, but it didn't work. Buium gave some back too, especially to Perrault, and afterward they hugged in the line shake. To me, this was more important than the points scored. Buium does not appear to be a people mover, but he is more than willing to compete, shove, and body out people when necessary. He also logs a lot of ice time, even more since DU is down to 5 defenders. 

    I've watched him now for 2 games and this much I can say: He is much more offensively gifted than Faber is, however he is a slight bit below where I saw Faber in his last season with the Gophers in his skating. Up the ice it's very similar, skating backward, his gaps aren't nearly as wide as Faber's were. Faber just took care of more ice. Now, that could be the competency of his partner.

    To me, this game was played at a pretty fast pace, a notch below NHL level, probably above an AHL level. I think Buium can make the jump and immediately be an upgrade on the 3rd pairing. Until he gets his feet under him, though, he will need a bit of sheltered minutes, but those minutes could be pretty good minutes. 

    I also stand by my recommendation to sign Matt Davis. He's a lefty and undrafted. At 23, he can continue playing goal and who knows what we have. It appears to me like he's got a bit of a clutch gene, and those guys are really nice to have. 

    Honestly, I don't really like BC. I'm glad they lost. It was nice to see Perrault and Leonard shut down. I found them to be a cocky bunch and an easy team to root against. I'm certainly hoping the Gophers can retool and develop a powerhouse team. That 1st round elimination has got to really piss them off, though, Motzko has a history of some early exits. 

    Conclusion: Things are going pretty well down on the farm.

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