By Luke Sims -
In life, sometimes someone gives you something for free just to get it off their hands. On the surface, it looked like a tremendous deal. A low-risk, high-reward deal that has no real downside.
The Minnesota Wild pulled off such a trade on the eve of free agency, when they accepted a trade with the Detroit Red Wings for forward Vladimir Tarasenko. They took Tarasenko out of Detroit’s hands for future considerations in return. Bill Guerin landed Tarasenko, the former St. Louis Blues star, as a one-year $5 million rental.
On the surface, the trade might not look too bad. Tarasenko has two goals and eight points in 18 games this season, good for sixth on the team. But when you look under the hood of the 33-year-old’s play, it tells another story.
For context, Tarasenko has logged the seventh most time on ice this season among Wild forwards, playing primarily in a top-six role with Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy as his linemates. Only Ryan Hartman has played more minutes than Tarasenko and had worse production.
Tarasenko has also spent most of his time on the top power play. That will change because Mats Zuccarello has returned, and Tarasenko will drop to the second unit. In his time on the top unit, he accounted for seven of his ten points on the season. That means, in his nearly 200 minutes of even-strength play this season, he has a whopping 3 points.
Yakov Trenin and Vinnie Hinostroza could also say the same. Not a good look for the guy known for putting the puck in the back of the net.
Look at the chart below:
It highlights that whoever lines up next to Tarasenko is worse off than they would be if they were not playing with him. All seven of his most common linemates have seen their numbers improve away from him. So, what should the Wild do with him?
Tarasenko has never excelled defensively. Still, he’s been sound defensively this year, giving up 1.52 goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60) when he’s on the ice. That’s good for second on the team behind Yakov Trenin, whom the Wild signed for his defense.
So, does that mean Vlad should play a fourth-line, checking role? Probably not.
Tarasenko still has a heavy shot and can be a threat offensively when the Wild puts him in the right situations. The problem is that it just isn't happening for him or his linemates in five-on-five play this season.
As of now, the difference between his play and the play of a guy like Hinostroza is not all that different, and until Nico Sturm comes back or the inevitable Marcus Johansson regression hits, Tarasenko will have to bide his time and hope that he can start to bury the chances that come his way in a third line, and second power-play role.
There was hope that a change of scenery and some better linemates would bring back the Tarasenko that Wild fans used to fear when he wore a Blues jersey.
Still, it looks a whole lot more like the Wild got the disappointing version of Tarasenko, who played for the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings. Returning Zuccarello to the top-six and the top power play unit offered little hope that Minnesota would spark the one-time 30-goal scorer.
The question, then, is what’s next for him?
All stats and data via HockeyDB and Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.
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