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  • Bill Guerin's Future Is Rooted In the Present


    Image courtesy of Bob Frid-Imagn Images
    Chris Schad

    Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin addressed reporters last Friday afternoon. The NHL trade deadline had passed, and all the big deals seemed to come within the Central Division. The Dallas Stars got Mikko Rantanen. The Colorado Avalanche landed Brock Nelson. Draft picks flew through the air while Guerin and the Wild stood idle.

    It wasn’t shocking, considering Guerin had traded his 2025 first-round pick to land David Jiricek. The Wild are also still dealing with the final year of massive cap penalties from the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts, meaning the Wild would have had to place Joel Eriksson Ek or Kirill Kaprizov on long-term injury reserve (aka “The Mark Stone Loophole”) to add a significant salary.

    It led Guerin to admit the Wild “didn’t even try” to add a big name. But that came with a caveat.

    “It’s not our time. We’ll have our time,” Guerin said. “We’ve got a plan going for four years, and I’m not going to screw it up being short-sighted.”

    Guerin is referring to the five-year plan that Russo reported at the beginning of the season.

    As part of the plan, Guerin said he wanted to sign Kaprizov long-term and treat this summer like Christmas. Wild fans anxiously awaited this part of the plan, anticipating the extension and free-agent spending like buried lost treasure at the end of a Disney movie.

    But while Guerin has an eye on the future, he must have one eye focused on the present.

    PuckPedia projects the Wild will have roughly $22 million in salary cap this offseason. However, we must factor in Kaprizov's eight-figure extension. Therefore, Minnesota will still have $10 to $12 million to spend, leaving Guering to fill in the pieces of a roster that has been one of the worst teams in hockey since the start of the calendar year.

    It’s a wonderful fantasy, but Guerin hasn’t been effective when he’s had money to spend. It started in the days leading up to the 2023-24 season when he signed Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman, and Mats Zuccarello to contract extensions. Since putting pen to paper, Foligno and Zuccarello have been fine relative to their salaries. However, Hartman has had troubles on and off the ice that could lead to his departure next summer.

    There’s also the Jake Middleton deal that was signed last summer. Middleton looked like a bargain when he put up 13 points and a plus-22 rating in his first 29 games. However, his production has fallen off since returning from a finger injury. He has five points and a minus-10 rating in his past 24 games. At $4.35 million, you could do worse for a top-four defenseman. Still, there are too many skilled but flawed players like Middleton on this roster.

    Yakov Trenin was the next player in this group when he signed a four-year, $14 million contract in free agency last summer. The Wild didn't sign to be a scorer, but his lumbering presence hasn’t added much else, with 13 points and a plus-1 rating in 58 games.

    Minnesota's recent signings have created a predicament, leaving Guerin scrambling to save his team at this year’s trade deadline. He coughed up a 2026 second-round pick to acquire Gustav Nyquist from the Nashville Predators. However, the 35-year-old won’t make up for the loss of Eriksson Ek and isn’t likely to be part of their long-term plans.

    There’s also the Justin Brazeau trade, which cost the Wild Jakub Lauko and Marat Khusnutdinov. Lauko’s injuries somewhat validated the deal, but Khusnutdinov is only 22 years old. Although he was set to become a restricted free agent next summer, bringing him back on a bridge deal wouldn't cost much. The Wild should have been targeting young players with upside like him the past few years.

    Even the Jiricek trade looks like it’s for the future. Still, it's rooted in the present because the 21-year-old sits in the press box and watches Zach Bogosian and Jon Merrill flounder on the third defensive pairing. If the Wild trade Bogosian or Jared Spurgeon this offseason, you could see a path for Jiricek to get playing time. Still, as hockey's Santa Claus, it’s more likely Guerin will seek another 30-year-old to fill his spot in free agency.

    Even if you’re (rightfully) excited about Zeev Buium and Danila Yurov, they could be stuck in the black hole that has become the Iowa Wild if Guerin continues prioritizing veterans in free agency. Is spending a bunch of money on John Tavares (34), Jamie Benn (35), and Claude Giroux (37) worth it? Or would the Wild be better off getting younger and building a core to compete in hockey’s toughest division?

    The Stars and Avalanche took the opposite approach, building the foundation and supplementing it with big free-agent moves. But while Guerin hypes up his future, it’s all about the present, satisfying this franchise’s desperation to get out of the first round.

    It makes pointing to the future seem like a crutch for a front office that should have built a foundation two or three years ago. And it could make a summer that’s supposed to be filled with excitement feel significantly underwhelming.

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    Time will tell on Khusnutdinov (and Ohgren still).  But Khusnutdinov was nowhere close to beating out Gaudreau on the depth chart. If Ohgren or Yurov are anything, they will beat out 7 pts in 55-60 games.  I don't like keeping Hartman over Khusnutdinov to open a Yurov slot, but such is life.

    Jiricek just has to be patient.  Merrill will be gone, so there is Buium's slot.  The decision over Chisholm is what decides Jiricek's fate. Chisholm has been a good soldier, but you don't give up all that stuff to ride the bench.

     

     

     

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    It makes pointing to the future seem like a crutch for a front office that should have built a foundation two or three years ago.

    • agree.  I'm going to give Guerin a grade of C.  All his moves add up to a net neutral for me.
    • Re: Nyquist - while I was optimistic at the signing because i thought we were getting Spring 2023 Nyquist.  Now I'm voting for us to let him walk this summer.  He's an upgrade over some of our other players who've auditioned in the middle 6 but he's pretty much a nothing burger at this point
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    1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    It makes pointing to the future seem like a crutch for a front office that should have built a foundation two or three years ago.

    • agree.  I'm going to give Guerin a grade of C.  All his moves add up to a net neutral for me.
    • Re: Nyquist - while I was optimistic at the signing because i thought we were getting Spring 2023 Nyquist.  Now I'm voting for us to let him walk this summer.  He's an upgrade over some of our other players who've auditioned in the middle 6 but he's pretty much a nothing burger at this point

    I grade him a D - only because Kap is still on our roster and maybe kap loves minny misery as much as rest of us and will sign?

    Bill does not deserve any grade higher

    we are in the worse position imaginable right now and he had 6 years to prep

    there is no plan, and likely no way out

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    1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

    But Khusnutdinov was nowhere close to beating out Gaudreau on the depth chart. If Ohgren or Yurov are anything, they will beat out 7 pts in 55-60 games.  I don't like keeping Hartman over Khusnutdinov to open a Yurov slot, but such is life.

    Jiricek just has to be patient.  Merrill will be gone, so there is Buium's slot.  The decision over Chisholm is what decides Jiricek's fate. Chisholm has been a good soldier, but you don't give up all that stuff to ride the bench.

    Hartman is a more complete player than Khusnutdinov, so I certainly don't mind keeping him around over Marat.

    Agree with the rest. Nyquist hasn't produced yet, but still hoping he finds chemistry with someone on the Wild like he did the last time he was around.

    If the Wild collect just half of the remaining points available to them in 17 games, which would be disappointing, they would finish with 95 points. For Calgary, or any team behind them, they would need to earn more than 63% of available standings points in order to reach 94 points. There are only 7 teams in the NHL who are currently over 63% in points% on the season.

    As such, last night's win increased the chances of the postseason quite a bit. Hopefully the Wild do better than simply .500 play to close the season as it would be nice to get back to 100+ points as they did the 2 seasons prior to last year, a points pace they also exceeded in the 20-21 shortened season.

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    I also give Guerin a d-.  Why for example do you trade for Jiricek and send him to Iowa to play then call him up to sit in the press box.  It's a joke.  Then we trade two players and a draft pick for a guy who hardly plays and was benched for the third period the other day.  We have traded away a lot of draft picks.  There isn't even a guarantee they make the playoffs but it's possible.  I don't really dislike guerin but he hasn't done much to build the team.  We are still a bottom feeder in the playoffs team that seems destined to be ousted in the first round again.

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    I'm not as pessimistic on BG.  I think he was dealing with a toxic locker room with  Suter in addition to two really bad contracts.  He has managed to keep the team in the playoffs while navigating cap hell.  When you are down 14M in cap you are missing at minimum 2 top 6 players.  That can be the difference between being a cup contender or not.  I would giver BG a flat "C" grade.  He has tread water.  Now he has cap room.  Spend it on true top 6 players.  Don't overpay for bottom 6.  If the player isn't available hold onto the cash until one does become available. Use your assets wisely.  Next season he will be out of excuses.  Fans will expect to be competitive in later rounds in a very good division.

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    Just a couple of thughts about this article.

    PuckPedia projects the Wild will have roughly $22 million in salary cap this offseason. However, we must factor in Kaprizov's eight-figure extension. Therefore, Minnesota will still have $10 to $12 million to spend, leaving Guering to fill in the pieces of a roster that has been one of the worst teams in hockey since the start of the calendar year.

    Kap is signed through next year.  His extension has no bearing on our cap space this offseason.  Rossi's extension would, and if they decide to resign someone else (hopefully not). The number of $10 to $12M might be correct if they make some moves, I guess.

    The Stars and Avalanche took the opposite approach, building the foundation and supplementing it with big free-agent moves. But while Guerin hypes up his future, it’s all about the present, satisfying this franchise’s desperation to get out of the first round.

    What big free agent moves did the Stars make?  Of their top 15 scorers, they signed Mason Marchment Sam Steel and Matt Duchene as FA's.  Duchene was a huge pickup, after getting bought out by Nashville in 2023.  He was in such high demand that Dallas had to fork out a one year $3M contract.  Results were great but would not call him a big FA signing at the time. The rest of their team was through the draft and trades.

    How about Colorado?  Same thing as Dallas, 3 FA signings among their top 15 scorers. First, Nichushkin all the way back after the 2019 season, a season where he scored 0G and 10A in 57 games for Dallas.  Second, Kirvanta, signed in 2023 after lighting it up with the Stars with 8G and 1 A in 70 games.  The last "Big" FA signing they had was Parker Kelly who they signed this year after 8G and 10 A in 80 games with Ottawa last year.  

    Neither one of these teams went out and signed a big FA.  They signed small deals to players and filled in their gaps with players from their system and trades in Dallas case, or made a ton of trades like Colorado did.  Out of their top 15 scorers this year, only MacKinnon and Makar were drafted by the Avs.

    The players we signed as FA's are Zucc, Hartman, Freddy G and Trenin. The rest are through the draft or via trade.  I would say we are building or have built the foundation with Kap, Boldy, Faber, Brodin, and Rossi with hopefully some young guns coming in next year.  I will have to wait and see what is done this offseason to add to the roster, but I would say the foundation is there.  

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    25 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

    I'm not as pessimistic on BG.  I think he was dealing with a toxic locker room with  Suter in addition to two really bad contracts.  He has managed to keep the team in the playoffs while navigating cap hell.  When you are down 14M in cap you are missing at minimum 2 top 6 players.  That can be the difference between being a cup contender or not.  I would giver BG a flat "C" grade.  He has tread water.  Now he has cap room.  Spend it on true top 6 players.  Don't overpay for bottom 6.  If the player isn't available hold onto the cash until one does become available. Use your assets wisely.  Next season he will be out of excuses.  Fans will expect to be competitive in later rounds in a very good division.

    When you are down 14M in cap you are missing at minimum 2 top 6 players. 
     

    Small correction- the buy outs were tied solely to ZP and RS so it wasn’t an option for us to re-use the money. So minimum of 2 top 6 players only applies if you believe ZP and RS to be such. So the root issue is not the money but the players. 

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    F - Trading first round picks for question marks is not how you build a team for the future. First round picks are for getting proven NHL players that can contribute immediately. The Wild got absolutely fleeced in the Brazeau trade. He is worth a third at best, with no other players involved. If you need to make room, then Marat straight up (still lopsided, he was a 2nd round pick), but he's more valuable to the future. Brazeau has no upside, he isn't going to get better, Marat will. Marat should have spent a full season in Iowa, minimum, he was thrown to the wolves.

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    8 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

    Small correction- the buy outs were tied solely to ZP and RS so it wasn’t an option for us to re-use the money. So minimum of 2 top 6 players only applies if you believe ZP and RS to be such. So the root issue is not the money but the players. 

    I think I get what you are saying.  I was valuing ZP and RS as being worth the $14M and top 6 players.  It's the idea of what you pay does not equate to performance or ROI.  

    The will be an intriguing summer with BG having more money.  Will he actually be able to bring in top 6 talent or will he overspend.  He will make or break his reputation this summer.

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