By Chris Schad -
When the Vegas Golden Knights eliminated the Minnesota Wild from the Stanley Cup playoffs, everyone's attention immediately turned to this summer. Wild players said the usual things you would hear at the end of another first-round defeat, and fans wondered what the next level could be for a team with a young core, with Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Zeev Buium, and some gritty veterans.
But while everyone can speculate who will take a step forward next year, the real spotlight shone on Bill Guerin. Guerin’s tenure has been relatively successful but polarizing. He’s navigated the bulk of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyout penalties. However, his real test will come this summer, and it’s an opportunity for him to get everyone to buy in.
A large group of Wild fans has already bought into Guerin’s plan. The Parise and Suter penalties were supposed to be a death sentence for the Wild, with $14.7 million in dead money added to their payroll in each of the past three seasons. With limited cap space, it may have been time to bottom out, get some players, and be ready to add the missing pieces in free agency. But Guerin was able to take a different approach.
The Wild made the playoffs in two of the three years they faced a giant cap penalty, and they did it by finding talent. His decision to extend Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno looked rocky at this time a year ago, but they were key reasons why the Wild took Vegas to six games.
A Mats Zuccarello extension also looks wise as he ages into his late 30s. The Wild also found a key piece in Jake Middleton, acquiring him from the San Jose Sharks and extending him to a four-year deal last summer.
Guerin’s biggest move was making the most out of the Kevin Fiala situation, getting a franchise cornerstone in Brock Faber and a top prospect (Liam Ohgren) for a player he would never sign.
It should also be noted how Guerin has installed his culture in St. Paul. Dean Evason was the first to install a “gritty” culture, but he fell on the sword when the Wild got off to a slow start in the 2023-24 season. John Hynes took over and was a calming force, focusing his group and producing a fast start that helped them make the playoffs this season.
The Wild’s business-like approach in the playoffs has many excited about the future. Guerin’s young finds have also contributed to that optimism with Buium joining the lineup late this season and other prospects, including Ohgren, Danila Yurov, and David Jiricek, likely to gain regular playing time next season.
But while Wild fans can highlight the positives of the Guerin era, there are also some negatives. While Guerin had one hand tied behind his back with the cap penalties, he was fully aware of the consequences when he bought out Parise and Suter. Making the playoffs feels a little easier when half the league makes the field. The real miracle would have been bringing this team to the second round for the first time since 2015.
There’s also some pushback as to how Guerin has constructed this roster. While Foligno was a wrecking ball during the playoffs, he was one year removed from comparing himself to a rusted-out Chevrolet. Hartman also may be a case of fool’s gold based on his history of competent play followed by a rage-fueled lack of discipline.
Guerin hasn’t fared well with the money he’s had, either. Yakov Trenin was a free-agent bust after signing a four-year, $14 million contract last summer. Guerin's tendency to hand out no-movement clauses like Halloween candy turned him into Harry Houdini diving into a shark tank with a straightjacket when he tried to improve the roster.
Like Houdini, Guerin survived. But the question is how long he can pull it off.
The summer should help Guerin’s case. While the Wild will have more money, Faber and Middleton's extensions will kick in. Puckpedia estimates Minnesota could have $20.5 million in cap space. The $49 million in cap space for the 2026-27 season also looks enticing, but is watered down when you realize a Kaprizov extension could take $12-$15 million of that space.
That leaves plenty of room to improve, but Guerin must find the right guys. Brock Nelson has been a popular target, but he could be looking for a long-term deal after turning down a three-year contract with a $7.5 AAV with the New York Islanders last spring.
Adding Matt Duchene and John Tavares also carries name recognition, but both players are 34. While younger players such as Mitch Marner, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Sam Bennett are on the market, all three have lemon potential.
There’s also the Marco Rossi situation. The Wild may feel like they’re heading toward a divorce, but opposing teams know they can wait to sign him to an offer sheet rather than offer a haul in a trade. Guerin could always choose to keep Rossi, but it could be at the price of a player he really wants.
It creates plenty of landmines in an offseason he has to nail. But if he’s successful, it could be the chance to make everyone buy in and believe that he can build a true Stanley Cup contender.
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