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  • Are the Wild's Opening Day Decisions A Long-Term Play?


    Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images
    Tony Abbott

    After spending most of the Bill Guerin Era being cautious with bringing up young players, the Minnesota Wild's roster decisions ahead of Game 1 are a surprising change in direction. The Wild have not one, but two green rookies on the Opening Night roster. Liam Öhgren and Jesper Wallstedt are entering the season with the big club despite having only seven games of NHL experience between them.

    The Wild are doing this, even without a salary cap incentive to keep them down in the AHL. Ohgren and Wallstedt may not play on Opening Night, meaning they cost Minnesota precious wiggle room against the cap as they wear a suit. The Wild don't care, and that's a refreshing change. "They've earned it," declared coach John Hynes to NHL.com's Jessi Pierce. "They've earned the right to be here. They've challenged for some spots."

    And that's not all. After opening training camp with veteran Ryan Hartman centering star winger Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, sophomore Marco Rossi is poised to open the season in that top-line center role. While that line spent 315 5-on-5 minutes together last season, it's still surprising that they didn't defer to the veteran Hartman.

    No one's complaining. But you have to wonder, what's the reason for the change?

    Part of it might be that John Hynes is more willing to coach younger players than Dean Evason or perhaps more ready to move away from relying on veterans. Michael Russo reported on his "Worst Seats In the House" podcast's October 3 episode that "the [Wild's] staff wants these guys to play this year, and Marcus Johansson is in the spot they'd like to have Öhgren in."

    That tidbit makes it look like Hynes' desire to get Öhgren in the lineup is part of the equation, but it feels like there's another piece to this puzzle. 

    Here's where it feels like the dots connect. Listening to Elliotte Friedman's "32 Thoughts" podcast from October 7, one of the first stories they addressed was Kirill Kaprizov's situation in Minnesota and Mr. Craig Leipold's declaration that "Nobody will offer more money than us." In particular, Friedman spoke on what should happen for Kaprizov to stay. 

    "Nobody needs to tell [Minnesota] that with Kirill Kaprizov, they're gonna have to show him that they're worth staying with," explained Friedman. "They're on notice by their own words, and everyone else is on notice, too. ... The thing I noticed is, it looks some of their kids like Öhgren and Rossi, they had good camps. It's still early, but... they're gonna need those kids to convince  Kaprizov that the Wild is where he wants to stay." (Emphasis mine.)

    And suddenly, the puzzle falls into place. The timeline lines up almost perfectly. Kaprizov made his preseason debut on September 27 with Hartman centering him, as planned. Just two days prior, an ill-phrased rumor about Kaprizov took the internet by storm. The Wild's superstar next appeared on October 1 -- the same day Mr. Leipold spoke on his future. By the end of that game, Rossi was centering the top line and appears set to keep it for Game 1 of the season.

    The top line struggled with Hartman in their 4:43 together on October 1. But that's a quick, quick hook to give Hartman after Kaprizov scored two goals in his debut, one of which came off Hartman's assist.

    It makes a lot more sense if it comes from a long-term lens. Say Hartman centering Kaprizov got the former back to a 25 or even 30-goal form again. Those are solid numbers, but Hartman is a known quantity who will be 30 next season and 31 in the first year of any Kaprizov extension. Zero disrespect to Hartman, but is that an attractive sell when jumping to another team could get him centered by, say, Connor Bedard?

    Or is it a better sell if Rossi, whom Guerin believes can be a 60-point player, takes that spot for the year and puts up a season in the 25-goal, 60-point neighborhood? If Rossi can show off his two-way game and put up points alongside Kaprizov -- the way Joel Eriksson Ek did last year -- it becomes very easy for Kaprizov to think he'll continue to grow into that role. Having just celebrated his 23rd birthday, Rossi is on the upward part of his career trajectory. He could make it easy for Kaprizov to envision taking passes from him well into an eight-year contract.

    The same goes for Öhgren and Wallstedt, even if they don't have as direct an impact on Kaprizov as Rossi would as his center. Is it better for Kaprizov's buy-in for the future if Johansson is toiling in a top-six role or if Öhgren is flashing potential and growing his game alongside Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy? Even if Wallstedt gets 15-to-20 starts in the NHL this year, if he shows well, you can sell Kaprizov on having your Goalie of the Future in place for the long haul, and that's a huge part of the winning puzzle.

    These decisions could just be "hockey decisions," which aren't influenced by the question of Kaprizov's future. If they are simply "hockey decisions," then credit Hynes and the front office for wanting to go with a more youth-oriented, upside-focused approach for the roster. And if these moves are being made with an eye on maximizing Kaprizov's happiness with the future outlook of the team, then again, credit to Hynes and the front office. Nothing is more important than keeping Kaprizov in Minnesota, and emphasizing and showcasing their youth movement is their best shot at doing that.

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    19 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

    help me understand what Guerin was doing the first 4 years here.

    Pewter, I think what happened was the 1st year was a wash. Really, he came on at the end of the summer and pretty much just watched and learned the organization and players.

    Years 2-4 were about accumulating more top round draft picks which would be the core of the new team. These became The Wall, Lambos, Ohgren, Yurov, and hopefully some 2nd and 3rd rounders who could help contribute. 

    So, what it looks like is that Leipold was on board with the buyouts, and the rebuild/retool/reload on the fly where Judd would get value picks from people who were good value at the draft (had fallen from where they were supposed to). Then, we would need to develop them. So, from 2020, we have iced/debuted Rossi, Hunt, Faber (traded for). 2021 debuted The Wall, 2022 debuted Ohgren and Yurov could have made the roster too had we signed him. 

    So, from the beginning of the 2020-21 season when Shooter 1st drafted to the end of 2022-23, those were free years and Leipold was happy since we made the playoffs all 3 years. Then, last year, when Rossi actually was useful, that started the slow march of the new players. This year we've got 3 more rookies. 

    Now, one problem that we, as an organization have is that we've got nothing to show for the '16-18 drafts. That's a pretty big whole. But now, Shooter has refused to trade away our young guns for help with the current squad. He managed to gain picks and traded away mid to late rounders keeping the 1st and 2nd rounders in house. He has already drafted his upcoming team, and Buium was a huge bonus pick. 

    Now we see if it works. It won't be overnight success, but the young guys will be getting better. According to my grandkids report cards, we'll call it "progressing" but not yet "mastery." My hope is that Heinzy treats the kids this way and is patient with their progression. Each one of the kids needs to have a 1 on 1 video session after each game teaching them what went wrong, how to read the play, and show them how to do it right. They will make mistakes. We will see them. We need to not get frustrated unless they keep doing it over and over again. 

    At least, that's my explanation of what he meant. 

    Also, signing journeyman vets: Shooter has to ice a team, and he realizes that the kids have to learn and develop. He has done an excellent job of shielding the kids from pressure while they grow, and not demanding them before they're ready. This has been the downfall of the past and we especially saw it with Fletcher who brought up his contingent about a year too soon, but, we had just gotten Suter and Parise. He was not patient and is directly responsible for our '16-'18 whole right now. 

    With capfriendly gone, we now have to get used to puckpedia. But, if you look, Shooter handed out NMC and NTC clauses, but the NMCs turn into M-NTCs real soon. It's not as dire as those designations look. These guys are tradable and he took care of them with fair contracts. I'm sure each player knows that when their spot is taken, they could be playing elsewhere. The only guy who's here to stay is Zuccarello, but it's very short term.

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    10 hours ago, Enforceror said:

    On another note...I'm thinking we're going to need to watch out for Utah. That feels weird to say.

    Utah can not be successful until they have decided on a nickname. I have decreed it!

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    21 hours ago, MrCheatachu said:

    I've heard that if you're on chrome you can bypass the paywall by right-clicking and selecting 'open reading mode' and that you can do the same thing on an iphone by clicking the two A's next to the address bar and going to reader mode also.

    also OCL re: Kaprizov-

    Also OCL:

     

    And, honestly, I don’t think our market would like it very much if that’s what we did.”

    Your market wants a SCC after 24 GD years in the 'State of Hockey'. We don't need any more of your one and dones...

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    18 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

    that's very true! i hope i'm wrong! time will tell

    still very excited for the season! 

    crazy prediction - 

    MJ starts strong and has 40 points in the first 50 games earning himself another contract.......

    image.png.4c1383bba4dd51498f76852a39be4f99.png

    Then gets the extension and drops his stick for the next 30.

    • Haha 1
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