Are the Wild Overworking Filip Gustavsson?

The Minnesota Wild’s goaltending situation was one of the team’s most talked-about storylines in the offseason and entering training camp. The team’s battery of goaltenders did not perform great last season as Marc-André Fleury aged. Filip Gustavsson followed up an excellent season the year before with a streaky performance that led to countless trade rumors. 

How would the Wild fix their issues? Could they hope for a bounce-back year out of their goalies? Perhaps high-level prospect Jesper Wallstedt would be ready to take some of the responsibility. 

Instead of directly addressing the goaltending position, the Wild hoped that improving their defense would make the goalies' jobs easier. So far, that approach has paid massive dividends for Filip Gustavsson. He’s playing the best hockey of his career, producing many quality starts and highlight-reel saves. 

Gustavsson has been one of the Wild’s best players, producing a season similar to his breakout 2022-23 campaign. In his fifth NHL season, Gustavsson sits atop the league rankings in several key stats and has become a workhorse for the surging Wild. While there are many reasons to celebrate that, it also leads to a question that could loom large as the season continues. 

Are the Wild overworking Gustavsson? 

Riding the Hot Hand

Before discussing Gustavsson’s workload, it’s vital to contextualize why the Wild depend on him so heavily. The Swedish goaltender has started 20 of Minnesota’s 27 games. That’s top ten in the league and puts him on pace for roughly 61 starts, which would be third-most in the NHL last season. 

The Wild are using Gustavsson like an elite goaltender, and he’s played like one. When you look at goaltending metrics, it’s impossible not to notice Gustavsson near the top of every category.

He’s tied for second in the NHL with 13 wins and is leading the league in goals-against average and save percentage. His advanced metrics are just as good. Gustavsson ranks in the top five in goals saved above expected, save% on unblocked shots, save% above expected, and goals against better than expected.

(Source: Moneypuck.com)

Any way you slice it, Gustavsson is playing like an elite NHL goaltender. When you pair his excellent performance with the fact that Jesper Wallstedt is struggling in the AHL (.865 save percentage) and Marc-André Fleury is putting up unspectacular numbers, it’s obvious why the Wild are leaning on Gustavsson so heavily. They don’t have many other options, leading to an increasingly burdensome workload.

The Wild Will Have To Lean On Gustavsson All Season

Gustavsson has played well with extended usage this season, but it’s the first time a team has expected him to handle most of the starts for a team in his NHL career, with a previous career high of 43 starts. Gustavsson is getting plenty of work with the Wild. However, he added more starts to his schedule when he made the Four Nations Faceoff team Sweden roster. If he emerges as Sweden’s starter, he’ll have additional work on top of his NHL duties. 

The Wild have done a good job supporting Gustavsson this year. As mentioned, Minnesota spent resources in the offseason, shoring up their defensive infrastructure. Yakov Trenin, in particular, has been excellent defensively despite a slow offensive start. Minnesota’s defensive system has produced fantastic results, ranking third-best in expected goals against as a team this season. While that has undoubtedly made Gustavsson’s job easier, even that will be getting significantly more difficult in the coming weeks.

Minnesota has been having some injury issues lately, and it will particularly hurt their defensive acumen. The Wild recently classified Joel Eriksson Ek as week to week with a lower-body injury. Eriksson Ek is one of the best defensive forwards in the league, ranking 22nd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, according to naturalstattrick.com. 

If the injury to Eriksson Ek wasn’t enough, the Wild have also lost stalwart defender Jonas Brodin for an undisclosed amount of time. Brodin is an excellent defender, ranking ninth among defensemen in expected goals against per 60 minutes. Injuries played a key role in Minnesota’s disappointing results last year. Gustavsson is responsible for keeping pucks out of the net with two key defenders on the injured list. 

Unfortunately, the Wild don’t have many options to offer Gustavsson a reprieve. Minnesota’s other notable goaltenders, Marc-André Fleury and Jesper Wallstedt, don’t seem equipped at the present moment to take much off their starter’s plate.

Wallstedt has struggled this season in Iowa, posting a .865 save percentage in 11 games. On the other hand, Fleury has played well enough for the Wild but in limited action and usually against weaker competition. Fleury is 5-1-1 but ranks 53rd out of 67 in save% above expected with a -.007 mark. 

Only three of his seven starts came against teams currently on pace to make the playoffs. While it’s necessary and reasonable to worry about Gustavsson’s energy, the Wild don’t seem to have any other options. 

Can Gustavsson Sustain His Excellence?

With injury issues and Gustavsson being the most reliable option in the net, Minnesota must get the most out of the netminder going into the later parts of the season and the playoffs. Unfortunately for Minnesota, getting the most out of goalies isn't effective when giving them this many obligations. 

Looking at past years' top goaltenders by games played and how they performed in the playoffs paints a worrisome picture. Let's examine the top three games played by goaltenders in 2023-24 and 2022-23, how they performed in the regular season, and how they fared in the playoffs.

2023-24 Stats

2022-23 Stats

Every goaltender who played the most games in the regular season was worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. While we should expect that, the falloffs were often drastic, and all but Alexander Georgiev’s 2022-23 playoffs were worse than the NHL average during those playoffs. 

It’s an imperfect science, but there is precedent for overworked goaltenders to decline late in the season and, most importantly, the playoffs. There’s a reason several teams have moved toward deploying a battery of goaltenders instead of relying on a single workhorse. 

Gustavsson could be one of those rare breeds in today’s game that can handle the workload, but right now? We don’t know. The Wild would be wise trying to find a way to get other goalies in games. Whether that means relying more on an aging Marc-André Fleury or attempting to get Jesper Wallstedt to play NHL games, it could pay dividends for Gustavsson.