Are the Minnesota Wild Regression Proof?

After Thursday’s 7-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers, the Minnesota Wild are tied for second in the NHL with 42 points and two games in hand over the league-leading Winnipeg Jets. 

It’s fun to see the Wild find early success, but Wild fans have seen this movie before. Minnesota has been among the league's best during the holiday season, only to plummet to the bottom of the standings and miss the playoffs, as it did in the 2011 season.

How sustainable is the Wild’s success after the Oilers blew them out last night and with more injuries piling up? 

The Wild have faced injuries to crucial players. The Wild are missing significant star power with Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Brodin, and Jake Middleton out. 

Minnesota survived without Brodin. However, without Middleton, the left side of the defense was suddenly barren. That forced guys like Jon Merrill up in the lineup and made Jared Spurgeon play on his offside. 

“Mids is a big part of shutting down guys, playing big down there, just holding on to pucks and just kind of making a lot of lines get one-and-dones in our zone,” winger Marcus Foligno said. “So, yeah, it’s tough.”

However, the Wild can’t rush any of these guys back. While Brodin and Zuccarello are close to returning, Erikkson Ek and Middleton could be out for longer. 

“You have to do what’s right for the player,” Hynes said. “You have to do what’s right for the team. Is he really ready to play? I don’t have that answer tonight. I’ll probably know more (Friday). 

“Same thing with Zuccy. I don’t know. Ultimately there is a medical procedure they have to go through to make sure that they’re ready to play and not force them in there because you’re banged up and you feel like you have needs.”

Despite the injuries and the recent setback against Edmonton, the Wild still earn points almost nightly. Sitting at second in the NHL without your top-line winger, top-line center, and two first-pairing defenders is impressive. They don’t appear to be slowing down, either. 

With the backbone of their superstar Kirill Kaprizov, who has 43 points in 28 games, the Wild have him to fall back on when things get rocky. Throw in winger Matt Boldy as a complimentary star and a sound defensive structure, and the Wild are built to avoid the basement. 

The stats also back it up on all ends of the ice.

Starting on the offensive side of the ice, the Wild hold the league’s best xGF% (53.91). That means that the Wild are controlling play and expected to score more goals than they allow at the fifth-best rate in the league. 

The Wild also are 13th in the league in shooting percentage. While that may not seem positive, the fact that the Wild are not at an incredibly high shooting percentage speaks volumes about their quality of scoring chances. They are not reliant on individual efforts or incredibly high shooting percentages for the success of their offense. 

Meanwhile, the Wild’s defensive structure has launched them into the best defensive team in the league. Statistically, Minnesota’s 1.64 goals against is tops in the league. All this without Brodin for a good nine-game chunk of the season. 

The Wild generate shots. However, they allow the ninth least shots in the league at 26.35 but allow the third lowest high danger shots against with only 41 total this season. 

Filip Gustavsson’s stellar goaltending has also helped. Gus has cleaned up any mistakes the Wild make within their defensive structure. Gustavsson is fourth in the league in Goals Saved Above Expected, at 10.7, and ranks third in the NHL in SV%, at .922. If he keeps this up, he’ll undoubtedly be in the Vezina conversation for the league's best goaltender at the end of the season. 

Kaprizov and Boldy’s superstar ability and the defensive structure Hynes has established to support Gus’s strengths give the team a solid foundation to continue its success despite the mounting injuries. The Wild will have some tough games, like Edmonton on Thursday, but the foundation is in place for this team to continue its success. 

All stats and data via Evolving Hockey, The Athletic, and HockeyDB unless otherwise noted.