A Neanderthal's Review of Hockey Prospectus' Look at the Wild

I was taught early in life that if I didn't have something nice to say, it was better to just say nothing at all. Of course, that lesson clearly did not stick, leading to the snarky sarcasm you have all come to know and love. The lessons that did stick were things like "keep an open mind," and "help out when you can." I'm fairly open minded on most subjects, and as long as my schedule allows it, I can be a pretty helpful guy.

If you enjoy stats, or just like knowing as much as possible, check it out. It reads well, it is monumentally informative, and does provide some solid analysis. That is, if you can stay awake.

I kid. Make the jump.

Forwards

The team overview is pretty straight forward. Wilson, the author of this portion of the book, does an excellent job of breaking down why the Wild failed last season. He uses quality of competition, CORSI, relative CORSI, and a whole bunch of numbers to explain what it all means. Where they lose me is that I have said all of the exact same things, but without stats, and was told I don't know what I' talking about by other stat folks.

Miettinen liked to shoot the puck, or sorry, direct it at net. The problem was, he couldn't put it on net. Brunette is a great man, and a pretty good hockey player, but he isn't taking 200+ shots a year or wearing a goalie down. He's a garbage goal guy. He needs someone to shoot and create a rebound. Koivu is a play maker with no one to make a play to.

That is why Koivu failed to produce big numbers. However, the CORSI ratings and such say they did a decent job, turning Koivu into an offensive player, etc, etc. I disagree, as Koivu took two third line forwards and made them into first line players. This is a credit to Koivu, not a detraction.

I agree that Koivu should play a two way game. He should play on the PK, the PP, and at even strength. All fo this, just so long as it does not wear him down. This is also how I see Mike Yeo using Koivu this season. Big minutes, all situations. At even strength, however, Koivu's job will be to score. It has to be. At $6.75 million per season, Koivu has to lead in very aspect of the game.

Wilson uses the qualcomp stats to explain why the team suffered with Koivu in an offensive role. Qualcomp is a great stat, but never, ever ask someone to explain how it is derived. That's where you lose friends fast.

Defense

Agreed. 100%. But let me some it up without the numbers. Cam Barker is not a very good defenseman. In fact, he is a terrible defenseman being given far too many chances because of his high draft position. We can only hope that when he fails with the Oilers, NHL GMs will let him walk away.

This next graph is where Wilson loses me:

Goaltending

Wilson notes that Niklas Backstrom's numbers were not good, something everyone who continues to draft him in fantasy hockey agrees with. It is difficult for even the best goalies to perform well when the team in front of you is terrible. There is only so much one guy can do. The bad numbers do not reflect Backstrom's skill any more than Luongo's inflated tires stats explain his ability. Backstrom was an elite goalie on terrible hockey team. Show me the stats that prove that, and we can talk.

The review says Backstrom "went in the toilet" after signing his contract. Well, his numbers went in the toilet. He didn't. His ability is unchanged, but no one can make the third and fourth save every time. Eventually the guy needs some help. Show me a stat that shows how the defensive forwards sucked golf balls through garden hoses and we can begin to discuss the numbers Backstrom put up.

Outlook

As with every other preview we have seen and read this preseason, HP has the Wild picked to finish "near the bottom of the Western Conference." We all know my opinion on that, so we'll just move on.

My Review

This was all supposed to be a review of the product, so I should likely include that. The folks at Hockey Prospectus do excellent work. Even though I disagree with it, it is well reasoned and well written. If you are a "faith in numbers" hockey fan, these guys are tough to beat. Hell, even if you are on the fence, this book will be enjoyable for you.

If you are, however, not a stat based fan, you will not enjoy the book. The numbers will make your eyes gloss over and scream at Billy Beene for ever being born.

So, nearly 1500 words later, here is the final thought. The stats Wilson uses prove exactly what I have been telling you all summer:

Keep in mind, I did so without the benefit of numbers or statistics. Just plain, old fashioned watching hockey.

Go buy the book if you enjoy statistical analysis. If you don't, stick with us. We'll get you through. To Kent and Timo, keep up the good work. I'm sure we'll have plenty of time to debate this further. Thank you both for allowing me the chance to review the Wild portion of your work. I am honored that you would allow this neanderthal to partake.

Now get off my lawn.