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  • 3 Key Takeaways from Wild's Major Game 3 Win to Take Series Lead


    Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
    Thomas Williams

     

    Not a whole lot of people believed the Minnesota Wild would even win multiple games in this first-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights. But after Thursday night's Game 3 had its final whistle blown, the Wild are suddenly owners of a 2-1 series lead over the Pacific Division winners.

    In their first game back home after splitting this series in Nevada, the Wild were able to keep the momentum going from Game 2 and earned a sizeable 5-2 victory over the Golden Knights. But just how did they manage to pull this off? And what should we really take from this win to give them a previously improbable series lead heading into Game 4?

    There are a few things.

    First Line Dominance

    It might be a little dismissive of the rest of the team, but the Wild would be nowhere and could be facing a Vegas sweep if it wasn't for the Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy trio.

    After Kaprizov and Boldy linked up multiple times in Game 2 and really drove a good portion of the offense for that win, they took on even more of the responsibility Thursday night. Kaprizov finished with two goals -- both scored on the power play at key moments of the game -- and Boldy had a goal and an assist. But it wasn't just where their names were on the score sheet; their entire line with Eriksson Ek dominated.

    For the 10 minutes and seven seconds that trio was on the ice at 5-on-5, the Wild had a 15-8 advantage in shot attempts, 13-4 advantage in unblocked shot attempts, an outstanding 9-0 lead in shots, and according to Natural Stat Trick, 77.5 percent of the expected goals share. It was simple, pure, and elegant dominance. No other forward line for the Wild broke even when it came to those underlying metrics.

    Unlike in previous games, when the Wild scored despite being outplayed, this top line for Minnesota didn't even let the Golden Knights get close enough to the puck to see its color.

    Of course, goals and assists are necessary to win a hockey game. However, if the first line continues playing like this, those will be more than guaranteed results. Unfortunately for the Wild overall, they still had to climb a mountain and defy the odds when that line wasn't on the ice.

    Still Defying the Chances

    For the rest of the team, it is the same old story as Game 2. The second the Wild earned a 2-0 lead early in the first period because of their success on the power play, Vegas took over. As we have already mentioned, it was when that trio of Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Boldy were not on the ice, but Vegas just had their way with the rest of the squad.

    image.png

    While in Game 2, Vegas waited until the 25-minute mark to really turn up the volume of their attempts and throw absolutely everything towards Filip Gustavsson, they sensed the danger almost immediately. Whether it was the panic that they really could be facing a series deficit on the road, the Golden Knights put the pedal to the metal in the hopes that something would eventually go in past the goal line.

    As we know, Alex Pietrangelo did manage to cut the Wild's lead in half before the first intermission. Still, despite Vegas's attempt to go quantity over quality, nothing ended up working for them.

    We can see it clearly thanks to our friends at Evolving-Hockey:

    image.png

    The Golden Knights might have had the better shot attempts, but the Wild were still focused on the quality of each chance. During that barrage of attempts in the first third of the game, the visitors made extremely unlikely and low-danger chances. The Wild ended up killing all that momentum with just one power play, which finished with Kaprizov's second goal of the game.

    Maybe it will be a continuing theme for the rest of the series, but the Wild could be playing with fire if they really want to focus on the quality of chances over quantity. Because, what if those high-danger chances don't come and the Golden Knights just lock them out from their own slot? We'll see how it plays out.

    A 2-1 Series Lead Isn't Unfamiliar Territory

    While we are all riding high as Minnesota holds a 2-1 series lead, we need a somewhat stark reminder that the Wild have been here before. Whether it was the 2022 series against the St. Louis Blues or the 2023 series facing the Dallas Stars, they have previously held a 2-1 series lead and had the team come back to end up winning the series.

    It's not the most joyous topic to think about, but going forward, the Wild need to be a little more cautious because it can all just slip through their fingers once more. Leading us to all believe that this team is never ever going to get out of the first round of the playoffs ever again.

    But this Wild team is different. Minnesota is not depending on Matt Dumba to play over 20 minutes a game, looking towards Ryan Hartman as the sole contributor for offensive depth, or having a third of their blue line composed of John Klingberg and Jon Merrill. There are more positives to take from this roster than those years where they squandered a series lead.

    The Wild will have the chance to not squander anything at all in Game 4 at 3:00 p.m. on Saturday.

     

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    We have a chance to do what we have failed to do the last two playoff series, and that is win game 4 and really take advantage of this series.  Will be monitoring Nojo’s status for game 4.  He left the game last night and didn’t return.  If he is healthy, I would fully expect the same line up on Saturday.  If not, I wonder what direction they take with the bottom 3 lines.

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    Why not make 2025 the year they get out of the first round? In the last few playoff series weren't injuries a bit of a problem? This year they have everyone, and maybe some benefit of having fresh legs, or back in Ek's case from getting cross checked daily. There also seems to be a swagger, or maybe a dedication that we haven't seen in the past. Not saying those other teams didn't care but this version just looks different.

    Boldy and Kap looking like the 2 best players right now in the playoffs, Spurge is effective (leading in +/- at +5) in the NHL, faber right behind at +4, while being on different lines. Trenin and Braz, for as much hate as they got throughout the year, have stepped up and I believe playing their role perfectly. Trenin with some good hits, saw Braz throwing them around with a bit more force last night as well. Moose Hartman and Nyquist have been looking good, Moose is throwing his weight around like crazy which is what they need. Would like to see a bit more out of Freddy, Zucc, and JoJo (removing NoJo until further notice as he has been much better as of late) but its a bit nit picky.

    Also, credit to Hynes, so far his game plan and getting everyone to buy in has been huge. Wasn't afraid of moving Hartman to line 3 and Rossi to 4, which has proved to be a good choice thus far. Vegas looks flustered and frustrated. I hope he can keep pushing the right buttons and flipping the proper switches to continue on, but so far so good.

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    Looks like Thomas and I were thinking the same thing this morning!

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    While we are all riding high as our Wild hold a 2-1 series lead, we need a somewhat stark reminder that the Wild have been here before.

     

    Edited by mnfaninnc
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    A couple of brain farts gave the Kuhnigits their goals: Gus obviously took his eye off the first goal against; KK97 pinched down, got burned and left the defenseman all alone to defend two Kuhnigits on the second goal against. They could have been defending a shutout last night.

     

    Edited by FredJohnson
    Grammer
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    21 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

    Looks like Thomas and I were thinking the same thing this morning!

     

    Yeah, the Wild can't get comfortable.  Vegas is struggling to regain their footing and push back.  Keep the pressure on.  Frustration and a bit of panic is already starting to creep it's way into Vegas.  Don't let them feel like they can get back into it.

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