
Not a whole lot of people believed the Minnesota Wild would even win multiple games in this first-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights. But after Thursday night's Game 3 had its final whistle blown, the Wild are suddenly owners of a 2-1 series lead over the Pacific Division winners.
In their first game back home after splitting this series in Nevada, the Wild were able to keep the momentum going from Game 2 and earned a sizeable 5-2 victory over the Golden Knights. But just how did they manage to pull this off? And what should we really take from this win to give them a previously improbable series lead heading into Game 4?
There are a few things.
First Line Dominance
It might be a little dismissive of the rest of the team, but the Wild would be nowhere and could be facing a Vegas sweep if it wasn't for the Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy trio.
After Kaprizov and Boldy linked up multiple times in Game 2 and really drove a good portion of the offense for that win, they took on even more of the responsibility Thursday night. Kaprizov finished with two goals -- both scored on the power play at key moments of the game -- and Boldy had a goal and an assist. But it wasn't just where their names were on the score sheet; their entire line with Eriksson Ek dominated.
For the 10 minutes and seven seconds that trio was on the ice at 5-on-5, the Wild had a 15-8 advantage in shot attempts, 13-4 advantage in unblocked shot attempts, an outstanding 9-0 lead in shots, and according to Natural Stat Trick, 77.5 percent of the expected goals share. It was simple, pure, and elegant dominance. No other forward line for the Wild broke even when it came to those underlying metrics.
Unlike in previous games, when the Wild scored despite being outplayed, this top line for Minnesota didn't even let the Golden Knights get close enough to the puck to see its color.
Of course, goals and assists are necessary to win a hockey game. However, if the first line continues playing like this, those will be more than guaranteed results. Unfortunately for the Wild overall, they still had to climb a mountain and defy the odds when that line wasn't on the ice.
Still Defying the Chances
For the rest of the team, it is the same old story as Game 2. The second the Wild earned a 2-0 lead early in the first period because of their success on the power play, Vegas took over. As we have already mentioned, it was when that trio of Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Boldy were not on the ice, but Vegas just had their way with the rest of the squad.
While in Game 2, Vegas waited until the 25-minute mark to really turn up the volume of their attempts and throw absolutely everything towards Filip Gustavsson, they sensed the danger almost immediately. Whether it was the panic that they really could be facing a series deficit on the road, the Golden Knights put the pedal to the metal in the hopes that something would eventually go in past the goal line.
As we know, Alex Pietrangelo did manage to cut the Wild's lead in half before the first intermission. Still, despite Vegas's attempt to go quantity over quality, nothing ended up working for them.
We can see it clearly thanks to our friends at Evolving-Hockey:
The Golden Knights might have had the better shot attempts, but the Wild were still focused on the quality of each chance. During that barrage of attempts in the first third of the game, the visitors made extremely unlikely and low-danger chances. The Wild ended up killing all that momentum with just one power play, which finished with Kaprizov's second goal of the game.
Maybe it will be a continuing theme for the rest of the series, but the Wild could be playing with fire if they really want to focus on the quality of chances over quantity. Because, what if those high-danger chances don't come and the Golden Knights just lock them out from their own slot? We'll see how it plays out.
A 2-1 Series Lead Isn't Unfamiliar Territory
While we are all riding high as Minnesota holds a 2-1 series lead, we need a somewhat stark reminder that the Wild have been here before. Whether it was the 2022 series against the St. Louis Blues or the 2023 series facing the Dallas Stars, they have previously held a 2-1 series lead and had the team come back to end up winning the series.
It's not the most joyous topic to think about, but going forward, the Wild need to be a little more cautious because it can all just slip through their fingers once more. Leading us to all believe that this team is never ever going to get out of the first round of the playoffs ever again.
But this Wild team is different. Minnesota is not depending on Matt Dumba to play over 20 minutes a game, looking towards Ryan Hartman as the sole contributor for offensive depth, or having a third of their blue line composed of John Klingberg and Jon Merrill. There are more positives to take from this roster than those years where they squandered a series lead.
The Wild will have the chance to not squander anything at all in Game 4 at 3:00 p.m. on Saturday.
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