Article: The Wild Should Benefit From Positive Regression Soon

[Luke Sims]

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[Citizen Strife]

The NHL is still in a weird holding pattern of points.  Dallas and LA are only a couple games up on the Wild despite the Wild being so far down the league standings.  Any wins against Carolina, New York, or Calgary changes the tone of things quite a bit.  I think there needs to be a clear 8-10 point gap from complete bottom ring teams to Wild Card before I am guessing they completely punt things or do anything drastic.

[Patrick]

The Wild have been bad this year and the numbers show it.  It's not bad luck. 

They need to play with a lot more urgency.

[0 Stanley Cups]

A lot of defensive mistakes so far this year, will the ship right itself is the question.  If not, then it points to either coaching or personnel that needs to be changed.  Defense used to be our hallmark, the way they're currently playing is not sustainable to even make playoffs.  If the vets on our team aren't pulling their weight this year, then we can't assume it would be any different next year, and changes need to be made because our roster is simply not good enough to remain in its current holding pattern.

[Scalptrash]

The team is getting old and probably tired of killing themselves for nothing every year. I still think there is some animosity over Kirill's record contract.

[FredJohnson]

Is pregression a word? The squiggly lines on my screen tell me "no".

[mnfaninnc]

This is an interesting concept to go over. I think what it mainly shows is the the Wild have been ice cold at scoring 5 on 5. The eye test confirms this theory. 

So, while we are putting up a .909 sv%, our shooters just aren't scoring. There are several players who have not even contributed to the scoring and haven't even been close. 

I am not picking so much on the vets right now, they are who they are. I am suggesting we might reunite the top line of Boldy-Ek/Rossi/Kaprizov, and go with Zuccy-Ek/Rossi-Tarasenko on 2. Johansson has earned a spot in the lineup, but he'll need to drop off the top 6. 

I'm not sure which center would be the best for either line here, I'm suggesting they rotate a bit. 

But, herein lies the main issue: the playing of the kids and the integrating of them in the lineup. It is obvious to me that the kids are in a "break glass in case of emergency" setting as Hynes simply does not trust them. He has to. Yurov needs ice time as do Buium and Jiricek. Even though they can be scary, they need to be integrated with large TOI. If not, Hynes will burn out the legs of the vets by the end of this year (not season). 

The Wall needs more games too, and Guus does need some interim rest. So, to me the evidence shows that this team is being mishandled by the coaching staff. 

Step 1 is typically a shock to the vets trade. I think the #1 candidate here is Hartman who would be a big loss. However, if you really want to shock the locker room, Spurgy would be the guy to go. I'm still set on Spurgy to Detroit for Danielson.

Step 2 is a coaching change. In season coaching changes are difficult. You can put an interim title on a guy, let Guerin head down to the bench as has been suggested, or find one of the few available guys who are resting at home with their feet up in the lazyboy. 

Step 3 if none of this works is to sell off vets near the trade deadline and get the kids experience. Find out who can play at this level. One thing we did find out is that Haight can elevate his play. Give the kids important minutes as we hone in on a useful draft pick in the single digits. Transition the team and bring in those '20-22 draft picks that are supposed to be good enough. See who can play and who can't. 

I do not have a problem with making the playoffs or not this season. I do have a problem with not integrating the kids, specifically the 5 rookies who were supposed to make the roster this season. Yes, we need to play the long game, not the short game.

As for the numbers, the hope is to score at league average which I assume is more like 9%. There's always streakiness that goes into this. It usually evens out during a full year, but, sometimes it does not. I assume to get to over 100, we have counted on being a stingy team giving up goals. Therefore, to me, a .920 sv% is my expected return for the goalies. Heavily structured teams should expect this, and this is how this team is built to win. 

[Up North Guy]

6 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

This is an interesting concept to go over. I think what it mainly shows is the the Wild have been ice cold at scoring 5 on 5. The eye test confirms this theory. 

So, while we are putting up a .909 sv%, our shooters just aren't scoring. There are several players who have not even contributed to the scoring and haven't even been close. 

I am not picking so much on the vets right now, they are who they are. I am suggesting we might reunite the top line of Boldy-Ek/Rossi/Kaprizov, and go with Zuccy-Ek/Rossi-Tarasenko on 2. Johansson has earned a spot in the lineup, but he'll need to drop off the top 6. 

I'm not sure which center would be the best for either line here, I'm suggesting they rotate a bit. 

But, herein lies the main issue: the playing of the kids and the integrating of them in the lineup. It is obvious to me that the kids are in a "break glass in case of emergency" setting as Hynes simply does not trust them. He has to. Yurov needs ice time as do Buium and Jiricek. Even though they can be scary, they need to be integrated with large TOI. If not, Hynes will burn out the legs of the vets by the end of this year (not season). 

The Wall needs more games too, and Guus does need some interim rest. So, to me the evidence shows that this team is being mishandled by the coaching staff. 

Step 1 is typically a shock to the vets trade. I think the #1 candidate here is Hartman who would be a big loss. However, if you really want to shock the locker room, Spurgy would be the guy to go. I'm still set on Spurgy to Detroit for Danielson.

Step 2 is a coaching change. In season coaching changes are difficult. You can put an interim title on a guy, let Guerin head down to the bench as has been suggested, or find one of the few available guys who are resting at home with their feet up in the lazyboy. 

Step 3 if none of this works is to sell off vets near the trade deadline and get the kids experience. Find out who can play at this level. One thing we did find out is that Haight can elevate his play. Give the kids important minutes as we hone in on a useful draft pick in the single digits. Transition the team and bring in those '20-22 draft picks that are supposed to be good enough. See who can play and who can't. 

I do not have a problem with making the playoffs or not this season. I do have a problem with not integrating the kids, specifically the 5 rookies who were supposed to make the roster this season. Yes, we need to play the long game, not the short game.

As for the numbers, the hope is to score at league average which I assume is more like 9%. There's always streakiness that goes into this. It usually evens out during a full year, but, sometimes it does not. I assume to get to over 100, we have counted on being a stingy team giving up goals. Therefore, to me, a .920 sv% is my expected return for the goalies. Heavily structured teams should expect this, and this is how this team is built to win. 

I generally agree with this, but there will be pain on the short and long term. They have to be willing to endure that or it would not work. Some vets will be ok with it to a degree but others will not and they have to be jettisoned.