Article: Will Gustavsson's Extension Become An Albatross Like Devan Dubynk's?

[Justin Hein]

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[Dean]

The Gus contract is fine. They can deal with that if things go south. Fair market value. Kappy is the joke contract that won’t age well. Billy set his own market and the rest of the  nhl set there’s . We are a joke for over paying an often injured winger . Kappy has never looked the same since injuries. We got the greedy superstar and the rest of the nhl has superstars that want to win. Kappy loves minny so much he robs them.they can PR it all they want but he’s selfish. So much for team culture or it’s about winning. It’s about Craig not losing his jersey seller . This idea that we had to sign kappy is ridiculous   They said same with Zach and Ryan . It would make us  relevant . Didn’t work.  If we didn’t sign kappy someone else would have at that price. That’s ridiculous. If so it would have been a loser team that would then try to build around a 17 mil winger. They should have hard balled kappy . No contender was going to pay him 17. That was his agent driving up his value. The real market is taking shape and we are so far off it’s funny. Then to hear we can never do anything else but what Billy does is ridiculous.  They should have asked for his trade list after the 16 mil. If he didn’t give a good trade list than they should have put him in press box for a season. . Billy isn’t tough or smart he’s  weak as hell  when it comes to contracts or trade value. Bozo Billy got ripped off . Spin it how you want. When another wasted decade goes by with kappy still the highest paid player, haha , an on perpetual IR OR LTIR , Billy will be to blame. 

[Pewterschmidt]

19 minutes ago, Dean said:

The Gus contract is fine. They can deal with that if things go south. Fair market value. Kappy is the joke contract that won’t age well. Billy set his own market and the rest of the  nhl set there’s . We are a joke for over paying an often injured winger . Kappy has never looked the same since injuries. We got the greedy superstar and the rest of the nhl has superstars that want to win. Kappy loves minny so much he robs them.they can PR it all they want but he’s selfish. So much for team culture or it’s about winning. It’s about Craig not losing his jersey seller . This idea that we had to sign kappy is ridiculous   They said same with Zach and Ryan . It would make us  relevant . Didn’t work.  If we didn’t sign kappy someone else would have at that price. That’s ridiculous. If so it would have been a loser team that would then try to build around a 17 mil winger. They should have hard balled kappy . No contender was going to pay him 17. That was his agent driving up his value. The real market is taking shape and we are so far off it’s funny. Then to hear we can never do anything else but what Billy does is ridiculous.  They should have asked for his trade list after the 16 mil. If he didn’t give a good trade list than they should have put him in press box for a season. . Billy isn’t tough or smart he’s  weak as hell  when it comes to contracts or trade value. Bozo Billy got ripped off . Spin it how you want. When another wasted decade goes by with kappy still the highest paid player, haha , an on perpetual IR OR LTIR , Billy will be to blame. 

While I am very happy we kept 97 with the Wild I don’t believe there’s a single person who’d say bill effectively managed his finite resources.  If this group can get into second round it’ll be in spite of bill not because of bill

[FredJohnson]

Will Gustavsson's Extension Become An Albatross Like Devan Dubynk's?
 

Umm…no.

[MNCountryLife]

I think Gus will be fine as long as we don't run the guy into the ground with use.  Don't put him in on back to backs and give him some rest once in a while.

[MNCountryLife]

1 hour ago, Dean said:

We got the greedy superstar and the rest of the nhl has superstars that want to win. Kappy loves minny so much he robs them.they can PR it all they want but he’s selfish. So much for team culture or it’s about winning. It’s about Craig not losing his jersey seller . This idea that we had to sign kappy is ridiculous   They said same with Zach and Ryan . It would make us  relevant . Didn’t work.  If we didn’t sign kappy someone else would have at that price. That’s ridiculous. If so it would have been a loser team that would then try to build around a 17 mil winger. They should have hard balled kappy . No contender was going to pay him 17. That was his agent driving up his value. The real market is taking shape and we are so far off it’s funny. Then to hear we can never do anything else but what Billy does is ridiculous.  They should have asked for his trade list after the 16 mil. If he didn’t give a good trade list than they should have put him in press box for a season. . Billy isn’t tough or smart he’s  weak as hell  when it comes to contracts or trade value. Bozo Billy got ripped off

Ouch!!!    I've been vocal on these boards as well.  Not to quite your extent though.  🤔   Not all things can be controlled by a GM. I do agree on two things.

1.  Kirill was overpaid.   

2.  The optics of it make Kirill look quite greedy.  

It was reported that Kirill was very unhappy about missing the playoffs in 2024.  I don't believe he would sign here if he felt this team couldn't win.  Kirill is better than Parise and even Madano. He is the best player we have ever had. He is a winner and a game changer. We needed to keep him.  I may not like the $17M... but I would rather pay that then watch him walk.  We have a better chance at winning with him.  I do think his value was closer to $14.5.  But ensuring that we have him for 8 years and he will attract the attention of other good players helps the stomach when I stare at that $17M.  

I also question blaming BG on this signing.  Leipold showed his hand and made negotiating very difficult for BG.  Leipold messed up.  At least that is my opinion.  

 

[MNCountryLife]

Good Luck to the Wild tonight and for the season!!  Hockey is back!!

[mnfaninnc]

Quote

Will the Gustavsson contract age as poorly as Devan Dubnyk’s?

I did the same thing as Fred did. No is the correct answer. 

Justin, I didn't get the charts with the blue and red. What exactly are they showing? I assume the top numbers were saves above expected?

We still don't know if Goose's trend stays at playing well every other year. I thought MacKenzie Blackwood's contract would have been a good starting point, but as Tony pointed out, this one was pretty solid, especially with capflation. 

I believe the comparison in the 2 goalies is hard to do. Dubnyk was a reclamation project as Mr. Darcy couldn't hold down the fort. Dubnyk's confidence was shot after Edmonton, and I'm not sure if he fully regained it here. What I do remember is that he'd put in a solid season of work, go to the allstar game, get lit up, and suffer the rest of the way. He should have conveniently pulled a hammy right before the allstar break every year. 

Goose, on the other hand, had been rescued from Ottawa who played defense about the same, but didn't seem to have the same mental issues as Dubnyk did. Dubnyk had plateaued, and even gone down hill a bit before he got here. Goose is on the upswing still, and I don't think he's reached his peak. 

Dubnyk was 6'6", while Goose is 6'2". I think a lot of Dubnyk's game was squaring up and letting the puck hit him. Goose plays a little different but is also susceptible to the top corners. Dubnyk's glove hand slowed down a lot in those final years Goose's hasn't. Dubnyk, I think, was used too often and wore down by playoff time. Goose did not seem worn down in the playoffs, but his teammates did. 

Tread on the tires may have said that Dubnyk had done a lot before this deal, Goose on the other hand, has not. I mention that because going down and butterflying a lot, like Dubnyk did may have an adverse affect on his knees. I'm pretty surprised that Dubnyk wasn't solid for longer, but I don't think Goose is on that same age track. 

[mnfaninnc]

5 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

Kirill is better than Parise and even Madano. He is the best player we have ever had. He is a winner and a game changer. We needed to keep him. 

I like the way this is put, but I'm not ready to put him ahead of Modano.  He's got to play a few more years for that to happen. 

I was selfish in thinking that my reverse retro 97 jersey will age well the next 9 years too. 

[Justin Hein]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

Will Gustavsson's Extension Become An Albatross Like Devan Dubynk's?
 

Umm…no.

That is the correct answer, the conclusion to which I arrived

[Justin Hein]

17 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Justin, I didn't get the charts with the blue and red. What exactly are they showing? I assume the top numbers were saves above expected?

Thanks for asking -- these are saves above expected in the different seasons.

The first table (included below) is all chances, the second table is high-danger chances only.  

The game state and player name is in the left hand column, season is along the top row of each column. The sum in the right-hand column is goals saved above expected in the three season sample. 

For example, you can compare Gustavsson's 16.94 5v5 GSAx in 2024-25 to Dubnyk's 13.47 5v5 GSAx in 2014-15. Or, at the far right, you can compare Dubnyk's all-situations 10.46 GSAx for seasons 2012-13 through 2014-15 against Gustavsson's all-situations 34.64 GSAx for seasons 2022-23 through 2024-25. 

The formatting is admittedly not my best work. Thanks for the question! 

[1Brotherbill]

Gus should be better over the contract than Dubynk was.  The reason he should be better is because he has Wallstedt behind him.

 

[1Brotherbill]

5 hours ago, Dean said:

That was his agent driving up his value. The real market is taking shape and we are so far off it’s funny. 

Disagree, Jacxson Lacombe got 9 million for being a mediocre defenseman.  Connor, McDavid, Eichel went the route of giving home town discounts for the ability to sign better players.  Next year there are two elite free agents available after those two the list gets very thin and old really fast.  Remember Brock Nelson he would be one of the top free agents next summer if he was a free agent next summer.  Signing Kirill opens the door for the Wild to sign one of those two Elite players next summer.  Since the agent is the same for both Kirill and Panarin it is possible that a deal can be made for Panarin to come to Minnesota and play with his buddy.  And in the end it will be the same price tag for those two that Edmonton pays for their two stars. 

[Fezig]

As the common saying goes, “Money is the root of all evil.”

The actual quote is:

“the love of money is the root of all evil.” a—1 Timothy 6:10,

 

 

 

[Pablo]

Exactly 1 yr before the extension kicks in, Gus shuts out the blues 5-0. It’s already a bargain! Gus is in his prime and underpaid this season. 
The only similarity is team and 5 yr term. Everything else is different. 
Kirill was also underpaid last night. No one wants to play against him and that won’t change that in the next decade. He and his contract will attract additional talented players. 

[Pewterschmidt]

42 minutes ago, Pablo said:

Exactly 1 yr before the extension kicks in, Gus shuts out the blues 5-0. It’s already a bargain! Gus is in his prime and underpaid this season. 
The only similarity is team and 5 yr term. Everything else is different. 
Kirill was also underpaid last night. No one wants to play against him and that won’t change that in the next decade. He and his contract will attract additional talented players. 

💗 There’s alot of love in the room right now ❤️ 

💕 

[FredJohnson]

2 hours ago, Fezig said:

As the common saying goes, “Money is the root of all evil.”

The actual quote is:

“the love of money is the root of all evil.” a—1 Timothy 6:10,

 

 

 

Money money money money moooney…MONEY! 🎶
 

 

[FredJohnson]

11 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

Connor, McDavid, Eichel went the route of giving home town discounts for the ability to sign better players

Shorter deals have lower AAVs, too.

[raithis]

19 hours ago, Justin Hein said:

Thanks for asking -- these are saves above expected in the different seasons.

The first table (included below) is all chances, the second table is high-danger chances only.  

The game state and player name is in the left hand column, season is along the top row of each column. The sum in the right-hand column is goals saved above expected in the three season sample. 

For example, you can compare Gustavsson's 16.94 5v5 GSAx in 2024-25 to Dubnyk's 13.47 5v5 GSAx in 2014-15. Or, at the far right, you can compare Dubnyk's all-situations 10.46 GSAx for seasons 2012-13 through 2014-15 against Gustavsson's all-situations 34.64 GSAx for seasons 2022-23 through 2024-25. 

The formatting is admittedly not my best work. Thanks for the question! 

One huge thing to consider is the main reason Dubnyk was so bad in 2018-19 and 2019-20.  It was reported around that time that his wife had cancer and was not doing well.

I think Gustavsson is a more talented goalie that Dubnyk, but a lot of the reason Dubnyk's contract aged poorly had little to do with hockey or his ability.  It had a lot more to do with events in his personal life.

I remember watching him and seeing a goalie whose head wasn't even in the arena.  He obviously wanted to be with his family and hockey stopped being as important.

Because of this, it really doesn't even make sense to compare to two to begin with.

[1Brotherbill]

11 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

Shorter deals have lower AAVs, too.

What?  17 million for 3 years is the same as 17 million for 8 years.  AAV is the value of the contract divided by the term.  Kirill basically makes 19 million the first year of the deal with 18 of that being a bonus.  Actually he has a base salary of 1 million per year for the entire contract.  The rest of it is bonus's that can't be bought out.  Even if the Wild buyout the contract they would still have an AAV of 17 million penalties.  So let's say that they buy the contract out for the last 3 years.  They would pay Kirill the 3 million in base salary.  But they league would penalize them 17 million on the cap.  That is how AAV works. And Kirill still gets the bonus's even with the buyout. 

[FredJohnson]

22 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

What?  17 million for 3 years is the same as 17 million for 8 years.  AAV is the value of the contract divided by the term.  Kirill basically makes 19 million the first year of the deal with 18 of that being a bonus.  Actually he has a base salary of 1 million per year for the entire contract.  The rest of it is bonus's that can't be bought out.  Even if the Wild buyout the contract they would still have an AAV of 17 million penalties.  So let's say that they buy the contract out for the last 3 years.  They would pay Kirill the 3 million in base salary.  But they league would penalize them 17 million on the cap.  That is how AAV works. And Kirill still gets the bonus's even with the buyout. 

Teams give a higher AAV for longer  contracts (for superstars) because they have control of the player longer. McDavid did however take even less than expected even on a shorter deal.

[goenzoy]

On 10/9/2025 at 10:41 PM, MNCountryLife said:

Leipold messed up.  At least that is my opinion.

I guess it is not a crime to mess  with your own money and if KK is greedy we might only know in 2 to 3 years 

[Forrest Gump Worsley]

The two best things going for the Gustavsson contract are both optics...it won't look bad because it was preceded by a terrible deal (Doobie), and it runs parallel to another terrible deal (Kap).

So for a year or two, the overpay of Gus will look ok thanks Doob's deal, and just about the time his contract starts to feel like ancient history the Guerin regime's collapse under the weight of the Kaprisov contract will draw attention away from the smaller problem of an aging and expensive Gus.

In the end this deal will have fit the franchise identity perfectly...stay profitable by drawing fans with a few good and popular but overpaid players while failing to assemble a roster that's competitive in the playoffs.

Edited October 12 by Forrest Gump Worsley

[1Brotherbill]

On 10/11/2025 at 6:08 PM, FredJohnson said:

Teams give a higher AAV for longer  contracts (for superstars) because they have control of the player longer. McDavid did however take even less than expected even on a shorter deal.

AAV's are based on the length of the contract.  Total dollar value divided by the years on the contract.  That is how AAV works.  Teams don't give more or less based on the length of the contract.  Like Kirill's contract they might pay the bulk up front but at the end of the deal the AAV is the total price of the contract divided by years. 

[FredJohnson]

12 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

AAV's are based on the length of the contract.  Total dollar value divided by the years on the contract.  That is how AAV works.  Teams don't give more or less based on the length of the contract.  Like Kirill's contract they might pay the bulk up front but at the end of the deal the AAV is the total price of the contract divided by years. 

Thanks, I know how the math works. I'm referring to negotiations.

Teams offer more AAV for longer contracts to keep the player on a known, cost controlled contract longer.

Players might want a shorter deal in order to take advantage of the cap rising and being able to cash in on an even bigger contract after the short one ends. (Often referred to as "betting on themselves".)