Article: McDavid's Contract Doesn't Change the Kaprizov Calculus

[Tony Abbott]

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[Citizen Strife]

The Wild didn't just buy Kap's on-ice contributions. They bought the aura that brings.  They bought, "hey, MAYBE another star can win here.". Without him, forget any of that.

They also bought into everything afterwards.  His legacy is tied to Minnesota, and pretty much cements him as the face of the franchise until the (highly unlikely) scenario of someone better coming along.  Anything he did before or since record wise will be shattered.  He pretty much IS the Minnesota Wild in face and name as long as any of us are still alive.  That is a marketing coup.  He and the Wild both will make ungodly amounts off his likeness, barring some weird PR collapse.

A cup would be nice, but so is not being a complete laughingstock franchise.  Minnesota IS allowed nice things sometimes.

Edited 7 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[Patrick]

The McDavid and Kaprizov contracts are nearly perfect inversions of each other. One is a fantastic deal for the franchise, showing negotiating skill and a player committed to winning. The other is a massive overpay, showing a panicked amateur negotiation and a player who only cares about money. 

Edmonton fans are absolutely overjoyed by this deal. They aren't panicking about what might happen in 3 years. 

 

[0 Stanley Cups]

I like the way the Wild's defense and goaltending is built better than EDM or TOR, now we need a big UFA, hopefully a center, to come here and give Kaprizov some help on offense, which will be easier said than done now that we know MIN is not a coveted destination even for homegrown UFAs (Boeser, Nelson, etc.).

[Imyourhuckleberry]

I'm not at all surprised that McDavid took less money than Kaprizov, but I was quite shocked to see it was below $14M, keeping him as only the 2nd highest paid on his own team.

McDavid's team has been close though, and he has to believe that he can win there in the next few years, particularly with Florida(and Vegas) now having to adhere to a more reasonable postseason salary cap.

The other aspect is the endorsement money that he makes as the premier player in Canada, which is likely a lot more than Kaprizov has available to this point of his career. And if McDavid does hoist the cup for Edmonton, those dollars would likely jump up substantially.

It's been over 30 years since any Canadian team won the Stanley cup. If McDavid can bring the cup back to Canada, where hockey is their #1 sport, his status will elevate to a level he couldn't reach by doing it for a US team, and his endorsement deals will likely be far greater than his salary.

[Pewterschmidt]

40 minutes ago, Patrick said:

The other is a massive overpay, showing a panicked amateur negotiation

This is the part of this post I'll agree with.  I'm sure Leo & bill wish they'd begun their offer at $13M and worked their way up to $14-$15M.  Still making him highest paid player in league.  Starting at $16M looks dumb now.

[MNCountryLife]

Sorry guys..  The cold truth is that this signing makes Kirill look greedy.   

Smart move by McDavid.  His endorsements will jump.  All of Canada will love him for this...and he increased his odds of putting his name on the Cup. 

[Patrick]

22 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

It's been over 30 years since any Canadian team won the Stanley cup. If McDavid can bring the cup back to Canada, where hockey is their #1 sport, his status will elevate to a level he couldn't reach by doing it for a US team, and his endorsement deals will likely be far greater than his salary.

Canada has a population of 41 million. 14 million of them are foreign born and follow cricket not hockey.  There is a zero percent chance his endorsements exceed his salary.

[MNCountryLife]

McDavid is the best player in the league.  Leon is arguably in the top 4.

Kirill and Boldy are awesome.  But neither is top 5 in the league....  BG needs to find a way to build a team that can beat Edmonton....That is a tall order.  Especially for the next 3 seasons. 

[MNCountryLife]

4 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Canada has a population of 41 million. 14 million of them are foreign born and follow cricket not hockey.  There is a zero percent chance his endorsements exceed his salary.

McDavid is estimated to have made $6M in endorsements last year.  While they may not grow to exceed his salary I could see him matching it.  Brilliant signing by McDavid.

[Will D. Ness]

2 years in Edmonton, then what?

I don't think the best player in the NHL should be hedging bets this young.  I would hate to see McDavid turn into Lebron... "I'm taking my talents to Toronto"  

Superteams destroyed the NBA (amongst other things).

[Tony Abbott]

2 hours ago, Patrick said:

The McDavid and Kaprizov contracts are nearly perfect inversions of each other. One is a fantastic deal for the franchise, showing negotiating skill and a player committed to winning. The other is a massive overpay, showing a panicked amateur negotiation and a player who only cares about money. 

Edmonton fans are absolutely overjoyed by this deal. They aren't panicking about what might happen in 3 years. 

 

Very kindly, I ask: What negotiating skill?

[Scalptrash]

2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

The Wild didn't just buy Kap's on-ice contributions. They bought the aura that brings.  They bought, "hey, MAYBE another star can win here.". Without him, forget any of that.

They also bought into everything afterwards.  His legacy is tied to Minnesota, and pretty much cements him as the face of the franchise until the (highly unlikely) scenario of someone better coming along.  Anything he did before or since record wise will be shattered.  He pretty much IS the Minnesota Wild in face and name as long as any of us are still alive.  That is a marketing coup.  He and the Wild both will make ungodly amounts off his likeness, barring some weird PR collapse.

A cup would be nice, but so is not being a complete laughingstock franchise.  Minnesota IS allowed nice things sometimes.

....until he gets hurt...again.

[Scalptrash]

Team friendly is the term that was missing from this article and by not signing a team friendly contract, it could be argued that Kirill doesn't believe in this team winning a championship. He's a low maintenance guy, and now he can just play out his career here without pressure and super high expectations. It was, by far, the safest choice.

Whether it was Kirill or his agent, it quickly became apparent that it was more about the money, and financial security, than winning. McDavid wants his name on the cup and he wants the cup back in Canada. Once he accomplishes those goals, he'll follow Gretzky's path to the south and the dollars.

I still suspect that after Kaprizovs' injury at the hands of Stanley, his skating has never been the same and he's more susceptible to injury. Signing a long, guaranteed, front loaded bonuses contract may confirm that. We'll see. Until he plays 70-80 games in a season, where's there's smoke, there's fire.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

The Kaprizov contract is more than I wanted the Wild to pay him, but everyone should stop suggesting Kaprizov looks greedy. These guys have agents and the agents get paid by maximizing the value they can get on contracts.

Kaprizov could have instructed the agent to take less, but most of the players stay out of the discussions and let their agent handle everything until the agent tells them that they are at the offer they think is the best deal they can get them.

Kaprizov's agent is greedy, he believed he could get more, and he was right. McDavid's agent is probably not as excited about the deal McDavid pushed for, but clearly McDavid was already on a $12.5M deal for several years, so he isn't hurting for money. He wants his name on the cup, which several million dollars more in his bank account cannot buy him. A few million dollars more available for the players around him could help him achieve his ultimate goal though.

Edited 4 hours ago by Imyourhuckleberry

[Citizen Strife]

McDavid may never get his cup, so acting like Kaprizov won't cause he took more money isn't a 1:1 comparison either.  If Cups were just given out to the best players, Gretzky would have 15-20.

One player doesn't win on his own.

[Patrick]

42 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

Very kindly, I ask: What negotiating skill?

Exactly. They negotiated so skillfully that McDavid volunteered this to help their goals.

[Dean]

IMO kappy is greedy. He wanted 18 when 16 was good enough. 4.5 mil more than the best player (center), 3 mil more than 2nd best player also can be a center . Those two have gone 4 playoff rounds past few years. Kappy can’t get through a season or a playoff round without getting hurt.  Didn’t they used to criticize Europeans for getting the money and going soft. 
     Who and when is someone going to touch kappys contract? It’s not going to be this year or probably not next year.  Who is up for a contract that’s going to match or exceed him? 
    We had to keep kappy to stay relevant is b.s. it’s the same suter parise none sense. It’ll bring others here b.s. No ones coming here or stays unless you over pay them it’s been proven in kappy contract once again .  St Louis won the cup without a superstar. So to say we couldn’t trade kappy and figured out a different way to win the cup is ridiculous. Billy hasn’t won anything. The GMs that have lately aren’t handing out 17 mil to 60 reg season game wingers . The GMs that win get guys to buy in not rip them off . 
   If kappy gets to Stanley cup finals or wins cup then Billy is God an I’m wrong . It’ll be a great contract . History says otherwise and this will be a long injury riddled contact with the wild trying to maintain mediocrity. 

[Citizen Strife]

Russo says Sturm is on IR, so Haight gets his shot after all.

[MNCountryLife]

36 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

The Kaprizov contract is more than I wanted the Wild to pay him, but everyone should stop suggesting Kaprizov looks greedy. These guys have agents and the agents get paid by maximizing the value they can get on contracts.

It would be a bad agent if he didn't first speak with the player about the requirements of the contract.  Kirill undoubtedly had that conversation.  Obviously we have no idea what that communication looked like... so everything is speculation.  Pay may never have been a part of the conversation.  It could have gone exactly as you stated.

Obviously Kirill wants his name on the cup as well.  I have to believe that Kirill believes the MN Wild can get there or he would not have signed.  I don't for one second believe that Kirill signed for money reasons alone.  But the optics of it does not play well for Kirill.  I'm betting that he is surprised as everyone else that McDavid did this.  He probably dislikes the signing of McDavid more than anyone.

[Pewterschmidt]

32 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Russo says Sturm is on IR, so Haight gets his shot after all.

I have mixed emotions on this one.  Very happy Later Haight'r is getting a shot, and think he'll succeed.  Very discouraged this didn't get sniffed out during Sturm-red-cross's pre-signing physical.  Yes I'm going there.  And no I don't believe he needed IR for a back injury that occurred during day 2 of camp.

[SkolWild73]

Looking at Kap's contract and comparing it to what McDavid just signed seems like an overpay until you look at other factors.

First off, this is not McDavid's first big contract.  When he signed his first big contract for 8 years and $12.5M AAV back in 2017, it was for 15.72% of the cap.  Kap's 8 year, $17M contract is for 16.35% of the cap.  Very close in terms of percentage.  To everyone saying that McDavid just wants to win and that is why he signed this deal, well sure, now after he has been paid a big contract.

Second, the cap did not rise much during the length of McDavid's contract.  In 2018, it was $79.5M and only going up to $88M last year, still 14.2% of the cap.  By year two of Kap's contract he will be at 15% and if the cap goes to $120M by year 3 he will be at 14.17% of the cap, already less than what McDavid's was last year.

Third, Billy had one job this off season and that was to get Kap to resign.  Was it an overpay?  Probably.  But since he was able to save a couple million on the Rossi and Gus extensions, it all kind of evens out.  Not to mention that if we had not resigned Kap and were forced to trade him, the return would have been mediocre at best, probably moving any chance at a cup back a few years.  And maybe, just maybe, if we show we are one of the best teams in hockey, we can attract another player or two to come here and chase a cup.  Would that have happened without Kap?  I would say the chances are greater with him here than not.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

4 hours ago, Patrick said:

Canada has a population of 41 million. 14 million of them are foreign born and follow cricket not hockey.  There is a zero percent chance his endorsements exceed his salary.

Maybe, maybe not. The added endorsements could at least exceed the difference between his salary and Kaprizov's salary. Endorsement deals are not limited to only Canadian products, nor the 3 years of this deal. Winning the cup is a lifelong endorsement opportunity for a player at his level.