Article: Filip Gustavsson's Extension Is A Perfect Balancing Act

[Tony Abbott]

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[WildFan777]

As much as I hate to say it. I think this is a pretty good contact. Very fair price, I kinda thought it would be higher. Honestly this could be viewed as a win/win contract. 

[mnfaninnc]

Quote

The other advantage is the sheer affordability of Gustavsson's deal. That doesn't appear to be the case right away, but with the cap rising, we have to recalibrate what "$6.8 million" means. Gustavsson is set to be the 10th-highest-paid goalie next season, and his contract will only represent 6.5% of the salary cap -- roughly the equivalent of $5.8 million last year. If there's a time when Minnesota has to pay Wallstedt like a 1B goalie, they can do that without spending too much of their resources on the goalie position.

This is the part that I find very interesting. Capflation is difficult to get used to, but Tony put it in pretty good terms. So, in the year after, when the cap goes up again, I suspect that $6.8m is the new $5m in '27. It's a bit of an overpay in year 1, but after that, it appears that Goose will give us some real value in the position. 

Thanks, Tony, I've changed my stance on the contract. 

[0 Stanley Cups]

Good signing at a good price!  Helps take some of the pressure off of Wally's development.

[mnfaninnc]

One thing that is going to be interesting to watch is how the salary cap predicter algorithms change with the new rising cap. 

I also think this makes the bridge deals more important, to get value out of that younger player and then give him his big contract. I can see the wonderkids pushing for a big deal out of their ELC, but, resisting it and bridging seems like the best way of getting value. 

While bridging may become more teams' policy, this makes being able to defend against an offersheet more important. This is going to be a real battle between GMs and agents. As the GMs try to real in the salaries, the agents will be pushing for that big deal after the ELC. 

For the Wild, the real test, I think, will be Buium. The rest I think we'll be able to bridge with little problems. I'm really hoping that Yurov becomes like that too, which would mean that he's playing really well. 

[M_Nels]

35 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

For the Wild, the real test, I think, will be Buium.

Bill's going to have to pull off the wizardry he used to sign Boldy, Faber, Ek & Gus to the deals they're on.

Disclaimer: I am in no way saying Zeev will make it to Makar's level at this point & time.

Caps going up which is good but if he starts looking like Makar-lite then his ask is going to be really high.

[MNCountryLife]

I think this signing was premature.  Wally is only 22 yo and is coming into his own.  Wally is an inch taller and 30 pounds heavier than Gus.  I would bet that is 30 extra pounds of muscle.  Given a bit of time for Wally to get acclimated to the N I think he will out perform Gus.  If Wally fell short BG could have signed Gus later in the season.  If Wally did step up and perform better BG could have signed Wally for 5 to 8 years at a lower value.

A little patience could have paid a lot of dividends.  I think BG jumped too quickly.  If they had both played well this year one of them would have been really good trade bait.  Now that trade bait is limited to Wally.

I get the cap is going up.  But that doesn't mean the Wild should be foolish with the cap and the signing could still have happened in the next 6 months.  

[Citizen Strife]

Waiting to sign Gus could have meant the price went up past what would have made sense.  This isn't a Rossi situation where the Wild lucked out and no one overpaid early to snatch him away.  There are no shortage of suitors for goaltending.  Every team wants or needs someone somewhere. 

Wally could be a piece to a huge haul, but he is under team control.  Wally could be the next Swayman, but if he is just another Georgie, well fuck that.  2/3rds of the time, Gus has shown Top 10-15 goalie skill with this roster, while we have nothing but hope that Wally follows suit.

Gus will likely fall off way faster than Wallstedt will, but it's not like Gus is immovable.  Guerin got those 15-team years fur just this kind of safety valve.  Wallstedt stays under team.control regardless.

Nothing premature about signing low on someone who has #1 chops.  If this was higher years or term, I'd get it, but this is flexible thinking by a team that hasn't had much.  Knowing the team could develop in many different ways is kinda exciting.

 

[MNCountryLife]

3 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

Waiting to sign Gus could have meant the price went up past what would have made sense.  This isn't a Rossi situation where the Wild lucked out and no one overpaid early to snatch him away.  There are no shortage of suitors for goaltending.  Every team wants or needs someone somewhere. 

Wally could be a piece to a huge haul, but he is under team control.  Wally could be the next Swayman, but if he is just another Georgie, well fuck that.  2/3rds of the time, Gus has shown Top 10-15 goalie skill with this roster, while we have nothing but hope that Wally follows suit.

Gus will likely fall off way faster than Wallstedt will, but it's not like Gus is immovable.  Guerin got those 15-team years fur just this kind of safety valve.  Wallstedt stays under team.control regardless.

Nothing premature about signing low on someone who has #1 chops.  If this was higher years or term, I'd get it, but this is flexible thinking by a team that hasn't had much.  Knowing the team could develop in many different ways is kinda exciting.

It isn't a bad signing.   Gus is a known commodity... and I agree with you... Wally is currently just a hopeful player for us at this time.

I think BG should have exercised some patience to see what Wally can do.   We know what we have in Gus.  A little patience may have shown us who the better goalie actually is.... That is an unanswered question.  We have 3 seasons with Gus now before the 15 team no trade list kicks in.  The odds of us keeping Wally if he plays well is slim.  Even if Wally plays better than Gus it will be difficult to keep Wally.

A little patience may have revealed a better solution...or not.

[Citizen Strife]

If Wallstedt is still RFA, there's little to nothing he can do except play better than Gus and force the issue.  Same with any of the rookies.  If they don't take strides, the ability to send them out for TDL players is finally a lever Guerin can play.

I do not want that.  Rather than pay a 33 year old Panarin or give out a ransom for Larkin or Thompson, I'd like all players in the system to do that instead and pay them to do it for a decade.

But the team needs to improve in many areas. Knowing Gus gives you a known chance to steal games is probably worth paying. Wallstedt MAY be that, better, or worse.

Such is life of competition.  What have you done for me lately?

 

 

 

[MNCountryLife]

15 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

If Wallstedt is still RFA, there's little to nothing he can do except play better than Gus and force the issue.  Same with any of the rookies.  If they don't take strides, the ability to send them out for TDL players is finally a lever Guerin can play.

I do not want that.  Rather than pay a 33 year old Panarin or give out a ransom for Larkin or Thompson, I'd like all players in the system to do that instead and pay them to do it for a decade.

But the team needs to improve in many areas. Knowing Gus gives you a known chance to steal games is probably worth paying. Wallstedt MAY be that, better, or worse.

Such is life of competition.  What have you done for me lately?

The nice thing is we still have Wally for this year and the next before we need to worry about it.  The Gus signing will certainly remove any nervous feelings about needing to find a #1 role.  I'm nit picking a bit in my prior comments.  I would just have been a bit more patient in the signing.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

I think BG should have exercised some patience to see what Wally can do.   We know what we have in Gus.  A little patience may have shown us who the better goalie actually is.... That is an unanswered question.  We have 3 seasons with Gus now before the 15 team no trade list kicks in.  The odds of us keeping Wally if he plays well is slim.  Even if Wally plays better than Gus it will be difficult to keep Wally.

Gustavsson is clearly better than Wallstedt right now based upon team Sweden decisions and last season's performances. Guerin isn't making the decisions blind. The goalie coaches and his full staff have a pretty good idea of where Gus is at and where Wallstedt is at.

Best case scenario is that Wallstedt makes it a true battle for the top spot a couple years down the road, but if they waited to sign Gus as an unrestricted free agent, they might have been forced into an $8M per year deal.

There is certainly downside risk of injury or a drop in play, but the Wild saw how Gustavsson showed up to camp this year, and if they are confident in giving him the long-term deal, I suspect he's looking quite good to them.

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

We have 3 seasons with Gus now before the 15 team no trade list kicks in.  The odds of us keeping Wally if he plays well is slim.  Even if Wally plays better than Gus it will be difficult to keep Wally.

Why? 

Barring injury, The Wall's opportunities will be as a backup goaltender this year and likely next. He won't be due a tremendous raise unless he somehow is the playoff goalie and takes us to the SCF which I would guess is a remote chance. 

The most likely plan is that we bridge The Wall at around $3m for a couple of years and by then he should have grown into 1b. That's when, if he is as advertised, he gets a large contract, the Wild bring in another cheap backup and someone gets Goose on a reasonable deal. 

So, really here what we are doing is guarding against a Goose injury where The Wall takes the net and doesn't give it back. If that were to happen, Goose is still on a reasonable contract and can waive his NMC if he'd rather be #1 somewhere else. 

Track record suggests that Goose may, indeed, develop an injury and be out for 2-3 weeks. These usually happen around January where there's a long Olympic break. I would suggest that he may not miss that much Wild time. 

Also, with 41 games through December 31st, the Wild will be splitting time with both goalies, I'd say pretty evenly. I'd be looking at Goose getting about 25 starts. 

[Patrick]

This is a great contract for both Gus and the Wild.  I especially like that we can trade him after year 2 (or is it 3).

The Wilds system creates good goalies. My prediction is that Wallstedt will develop into a premium option and we can trade Gus when Wallstedt is ready to take the net full time. 

By then Gus will be a better than average goalie on a great contract. 

If Wallstedt doesn't develop we still have Gus on a great contract.

[Tony Abbott]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Why? 

Barring injury, The Wall's opportunities will be as a backup goaltender this year and likely next. He won't be due a tremendous raise unless he somehow is the playoff goalie and takes us to the SCF which I would guess is a remote chance. 

The most likely plan is that we bridge The Wall at around $3m for a couple of years and by then he should have grown into 1b. That's when, if he is as advertised, he gets a large contract, the Wild bring in another cheap backup and someone gets Goose on a reasonable deal. 

Even if Wallstedt plays like he deserves a long-term deal, it's not like Guerin is afraid to squeeze young RFAs into taking a bridge. 

[FredJohnson]

Is he +6 foot and +200 lbs.?

[MNCountryLife]

7 minutes ago, Tony Abbott said:

Even if Wallstedt plays like he deserves a long-term deal, it's not like Guerin is afraid to squeeze young RFAs into taking a bridge. 

That's a good point.  BG has done well dealing with RFAs.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

McDavid signing extension for $12.5M AAV over 2 seasons. He wants his name on the cup in the next 3 seasons.

I guess the league didn't force him into a high contract value, as was suggested by others.

[Dean]

The Gus contract is a fair one . Especially with no goalie market now or next year. The kappy contract looks stupid. Conner signs for 12.5. His body has proven it can handle 82 game season and 4 playoff rounds. Kappys body has proven it can do just enough to get paid and lose every 1st round  . One guy wants to win a cup and one wants to help Craig sell jerseys and win moral victories. Who’s going to and when is someone going to match or exceed kappy now? Makar? I doubt it I bet he goes team friendly. We’re celebrating over paying and the rest of the leauge is trying to sign smart contracts like Florida does. History repeats itself 

[FredJohnson]

36 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

McDavid signing extension for $12.5M AAV over 2 seasons. He wants his name on the cup in the next 3 seasons.

I guess the league didn't force him into a high contract value, as was suggested by others.

In other news...Connor McDavid was just kicked out of the NHLPA.

[Pewterschmidt]

From Russo:

“Danila Yurov, Liam Ohgren make Wild opening night roster, but not in second-line spot team hoped”

cue the ogz is getting “robbed of his opportunity Bob loblaw” crowd.  This kid has to start showing signs that he gets it soon.  I’d argue Haight outshined both these first rounders in camp

[Citizen Strife]

1 hour ago, Dean said:

The Gus contract is a fair one . Especially with no goalie market now or next year. The kappy contract looks stupid. Conner signs for 12.5. His body has proven it can handle 82 game season and 4 playoff rounds. Kappys body has proven it can do just enough to get paid and lose every 1st round  . One guy wants to win a cup and one wants to help Craig sell jerseys and win moral victories. Who’s going to and when is someone going to match or exceed kappy now? Makar? I doubt it I bet he goes team friendly. We’re celebrating over paying and the rest of the leauge is trying to sign smart contracts like Florida does. History repeats itself 

Oh the humanity.  Our best player in history signed for the rest of his career for a few extra. Whatever shall the Wild do about it?  

"Sorry, can't hear you.  Too busy selling jerseys, setting up a potential Hall of Fame speech and banner, and maybe a statue in the parking lot in ten years.  We understand your concern, but we may want to make the street name change permanent.". 

Satire aside, what McDavid and Kap did were done for two different reasons and under different circumstances.  Both could play anywhere, but only one team actually has playoff success to draw from.  One team is in Canada, and had Gretzky, Messier, etc and won cups in it's lifetime.  The other....had Gaborik that one time and that uber defensive coach what was really good.

Call me again when a Minnesota team can nope out of a superstar megadeal for the hell of it.

Edited just now by Citizen Strife