Article: Kirill Kaprizov's Contract Comes With A Hidden Risk

[Chris Schad]

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[Citizen Strife]

Are the Wild a better team now than the previous regime?  I would say yes, because they have a higher ceiling with Kap and Boldy than Parise and Suter.  The "young core" back then had bright spots like Granlund and Brodin/Dumba, but I can't say any of them elevated the team by themselves.  

I think Guerin has work to do.  He gave up a few high draft picks for Jiricek and Nyquist, but he hasn't thrown them ALL away.  He still gave the team several first rounders now and later to either backfill the depth or send away IF things are available.  Top line guys and even pure 2nd line scorers don't grow on trees.

Fletcher was convinced the Parise/Suter team was ready.  All he ever did was send away high draft picks for 4th liners.  Guerin is hedging his bets that they are, while keeping options open.  With Kap, they have a much better chance to at least draw other players to play here.

Kap leaving or even getting a 2nd liner in return would have been a death knell to any options.

Edited October 2 by Citizen Strife

[B1GKappa97]

I think we've got the first half of the contract before he starts to really decline, assuming he doesn't develop any chronic issues before then. But by the point his stats start going down, the cap should be considerably higher too so a $17M AAV likely won't be as big of a shock then as it is right now. 

Also, we are technically in year 3 of Guerin's 5-year plan 2.0, so the team clearly plans to turn themselves into Cup contenders over the next couple seasons. I'd expect some big moves in the coming months to help them try to do that, whether they're one-year rentals for this season or more long-term additions for the remainder of the plan. 

[Pewterschmidt]

One 35 yr old 97 is more valuable than three peak Charlie Coyle’s grinding out middle six minutes getting second assists. 

Think current day Slap Nutz * 200%.  

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Kaprizov should be on a scoring pace that allows for 100+ points.

Can he stay healthy and top 110?

His previous high is 108. That was with a 20 year old Boldy on the roster, but that season also had strong years from Zuccarello and Fiala, and a career year from Hartman.

Could be a really fun year if Kaprizov can set a new career high in points.

[BeanPole Harvester]

I would not be surprised if they try a run at Panarin. The Rangers seem to be hisitant on resignining him. Panarin and Kaprizov share the same agent and there has been some speculation prior to Kaprizov signing that perhaps Panarin would talk him into joining the Rangers. Perhaps the reverse is at play and Kaprizov can talk Panarin into joining the Wild? 

Though he's getting up there in age at 33 over the last 4 years he's averaged just under 80 gp with 34g and 65a. He's been good in the playoffs as well with 43 gp, 11g/22a/33pts.

[FredJohnson]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

He gave up a few high draft picks for Jiricek and Nyquist

Jiricek is looking like he needs a ton of development still.

[FredJohnson]

9 minutes ago, BeanPole Harvester said:

I would not be surprised if they try a run at Panarin. The Rangers seem to be hisitant on resignining him. Panarin and Kaprizov share the same agent and there has been some speculation prior to Kaprizov signing that perhaps Panarin would talk him into joining the Rangers. Perhaps the reverse is at play and Kaprizov can talk Panarin into joining the Wild? 

Though he's getting up there in age at 33 over the last 4 years he's averaged just under 80 gp with 34g and 65a. He's been good in the playoffs as well with 43 gp, 11g/22a/33pts.

Now watch US get punished for tampering. 😳

[0 Stanley Cups]

3 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

Jiricek is looking like he needs a ton of development still.

I thought he looked pretty good the other night against the Jets, other than the blooper turn over the led to a goal.  Now if that's happening every game, then I'm concerned and he should be sent down to Iowa, but we have to give these kids a longer leash to play through mistakes and learn.  Offensively he made some nice pinches and plays to keep the offense alive, if he's paired with a defensive defenseman like Brodin, just like Spurg and Buium will likely be paired together, that's a great complimentary partner.  Would also help Brodin stay healthy playing less minutes, and balance all three pairs time on ice.

[Pewterschmidt]

4 minutes ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

I thought he looked pretty good the other night against the Jets, other than the blooper turn over the led to a goal.  Now if that's happening every game, then I'm concerned and he should be sent down to Iowa, but we have to give these kids a longer leash to play through mistakes and learn.  Offensively he made some nice pinches and plays to keep the offense alive, if he's paired with a defensive defenseman like Brodin, just like Spurg and Buium will likely be paired together, that's a great complimentary partner.  Would also help Brodin stay healthy playing less minutes, and balance all three pairs time on ice.

I’ve also liked what I’ve seen from jiri.  He’s making his fair share of Declan Chisolm blunders but his size +dawg+offensive instincts make the growing pains easier to endure.  He could become a big nasty offensive dman someday

[M_Nels]

5 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I’ve also liked what I’ve seen from jiri.  He’s making his fair share of Declan Chisolm blunders but his size +dawg+offensive instincts make the growing pains easier to endure.  He could become a big nasty offensive dman someday

Oh man, giving me some bad flashbacks thinking of some of his d-zone giveaways right in front of the net. Kid could skate and stick handle but boy was he a liability in the d-zone.

I have high hopes for Jiri and think he has a bright future, kids only 21 and is on an upward trajectory. For a lumbering giraffe he's made some slick moves near the point that have deked defenders and created offense for himself. Think he's only going to get better, want to see him in the opening night lineup over BOGO. 

Edit: Agree with you on the dawg too, plus he has a huge reach advantage that he's used to break up passes and entries.

Edited October 2 by M_Nels

[Citizen Strife]

Merrill and Chisholm gave the team zero offense.  What I am curious to see is whether or not Buium and Jiricek can provide that offensive punch without being Addison level lazy or unprepared for the defense and giving up just as many.

I get the Wild's in distance on defensive responsibility, but I don't think Hynes's system is so devoid of pressure like Lemaire's was.  Players either have the offensive skill set, or they don't.

 

Edited October 2 by Citizen Strife

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

Jiricek is looking like he needs a ton of development still.

Since I haven't watched much preseason, is it your opinion that he needs the development in the N, or in the A?

[mnfaninnc]

Any time you sign a superstar to a big contract, there is hidden risk. Most of it is injury risk. The Vikings had a lot of risk signing Jefferson, the Twins Mauer and Buxton. But, with that risk, you also have reward. 

I'm ok with the deal, and I think we can swallow it, especially after the Rossi numbers came back favorably. I had really thought he would only sign a 2 year deal and then look for his big one. 3 years helped. 

Next, we need to remember not to overspend on Goose. His numbers say he's a $7-8m goalie. The eye test says differently, that he's a $5m goalie. Guerin, I think, trusts the eye test more. I would throw out 5 x $5m, just like Rossi to see if his agent bites. If not, leave it on the table and let's see how this season goes. I do not believe that The Wall will be due a big raise at the end of his deal. We could keep stable goaltending in house for less than $10m for quite awhile. 

Looking ahead at the kids, I believe most will go the bridge route. Jiricek is not due a big raise at the end of the year. Lambos will be under $1m. OgZ likely doesn't get much his 2nd contract as he's still developing. Yurov might grow into something, and I do think Buium might get a big deal or a mid range bridge. With the cap going up, the subtraction of some of our vets, this is a very team friendly cap roster. 

Now the question is, what can Guerin bring in to help? 

[Dean]

Listening to both sides of the kappy deal , it’s kinda hard to be upset kappy is here 8 more years. However this is about winning a cup not being a cute small market team with the highest paid but not the best player  getting  first round bounced  year after year. Due to no money to fill out team. I get it’s a new era with cap going up but it’s still about % of the cap. No team has won a cup with any player making near kappys  % of cap. To hear he wanted 18 took the shine off kappy in my eyes. Greedy. He didn’t sign because he loves Minnesota or thinks we can win. He strong armed robbed Billy. 5 mil more than the last 2 high end wingers to sign. Marner, mikko . Just seems like a big jump for a dinged up winger.  
    I get not wanting to lose kappy and go backwards but I also think of teams have won the cup without a superstar(st Louis )  and the fact no team has won with someone making close to 20% of cap . Maybe this is a new era and things will be different with cap going up. Idk. 
    I do know this whole kappy signing sure seems like history repeating itself. Same flipping talking points. We need to stay relevant. It will get others to come here.  That’s the same b.s. they used during parise suter days. It never happened! Just like IMO it’s not going to happen during the kappy years. There no money for anything nice.  Once again they are saying the can do something they can’t. Just like x-mas or kappy signing the contract in Craig’s pocket.  IMO it’s going to be another decade of not getting to the conference finals or cup finals. It’s going to be a decade of moral victories of overcoming injuries to sneak into playoffs an embarrass yourself.  I hope I’m wrong and Billy pulls a rabbit out of his arse but I have no faith in Billy 

imo they should have traded him and started to build a blue collar team like st louis has done. Hardworking guys that want to be here on fair good contracts. Working as a team to win cup. No prima Donna’s with there big cap hit sitting on IR.  Rossi kappy Boldy line won’t make it through the year . They will get run every game. We still have no secondary scoring so once they get kappy dinged up, the season or playoff round  will be over year after year.  It’s still the same team but now with new cap restraints. 

[Willy the poor boy]

2 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

Now watch US get punished for tampering. 😳

[FredJohnson]

3 hours ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

Now if that's happening every game, then I'm concerned and he should be sent down to Iowa

It hasn't always been THAT egregious but he flubs a lot. IMHO he needs time in Iowa now that we have a competent HC in Dezy Moinz. 

[Patrick]

Thank you for writing this article!  17 million for a guy averaging 78 points a year is an insane gamble. IF he stays healthy and IF he plays every year like his career high the Wild would only break even on the value.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire. 

[Burnt Toast]

12 hours ago, BeanPole Harvester said:

I would not be surprised if they try a run at Panarin

Definitely 

[Burnt Toast]

10 hours ago, Dean said:

kappy

I agree that a lot of your post could happen. It seems like a worst case scenario but still possible. KK has played his entire NHL career in MN with not a lot of top players on his line. Victor R, Ryan H, Zuc, Rossi etc. With Boldy Ek together they became one of the top lines in the NHL. Problem became the other lines were not adding enough scoring. KK has this team on his back. I’ll take him over Marner or Rant. KK is making $9M this year, we can add a top player that either gives him someone to play with or add the much needed scoring depth we’ve been lacking. There’s room to resign said player and we’ll be dropping a string of aging contracts over the next 3 seasons. Having a top 10 goalie, (Gus), doesn’t hurt either, just ask Florida. The picture I’m painting is very possible. I’m expecting this team to get better over the next three years and hoping for something special in 2027. 

[Will D. Ness]

Comparing the contracts of KK97 to Parise and Suter is apples and oranges at best and intellectually dishonest at worst.

Those contracts were albatrosses that not only topped the list in the NHL but maybe of all sports.  13 years?  For those guys?  That was basically selling out the future for some good, but marginally talented players.  

KK97 is in a different class than Parise and Suter and putting them in the same sentence is hockey sacrilege IMO.  Both in terms of talent, but also championship drive and ethic.  It's a convenient narrative for general consumption for fair weather fans.

The highest risk regarding KK97 was not being able to sign him, and if he wants 8 years, you give him 8 years.  If he wants 17M, you give him 17M.  

It was 1M too much for 1Y too long, but hey that is BG's MO, so the universe is balanced.

[raithis]

On 10/2/2025 at 11:26 AM, Dean said:

Listening to both sides of the kappy deal , it’s kinda hard to be upset kappy is here 8 more years. However this is about winning a cup not being a cute small market team with the highest paid but not the best player  getting  first round bounced  year after year. Due to no money to fill out team. I get it’s a new era with cap going up but it’s still about % of the cap. No team has won a cup with any player making near kappys  % of cap. To hear he wanted 18 took the shine off kappy in my eyes. Greedy. He didn’t sign because he loves Minnesota or thinks we can win. He strong armed robbed Billy. 5 mil more than the last 2 high end wingers to sign. Marner, mikko . Just seems like a big jump for a dinged up winger.  
    I get not wanting to lose kappy and go backwards but I also think of teams have won the cup without a superstar(st Louis )  and the fact no team has won with someone making close to 20% of cap . Maybe this is a new era and things will be different with cap going up. Idk. 
    I do know this whole kappy signing sure seems like history repeating itself. Same flipping talking points. We need to stay relevant. It will get others to come here.  That’s the same b.s. they used during parise suter days. It never happened! Just like IMO it’s not going to happen during the kappy years. There no money for anything nice.  Once again they are saying the can do something they can’t. Just like x-mas or kappy signing the contract in Craig’s pocket.  IMO it’s going to be another decade of not getting to the conference finals or cup finals. It’s going to be a decade of moral victories of overcoming injuries to sneak into playoffs an embarrass yourself.  I hope I’m wrong and Billy pulls a rabbit out of his arse but I have no faith in Billy 

imo they should have traded him and started to build a blue collar team like st louis has done. Hardworking guys that want to be here on fair good contracts. Working as a team to win cup. No prima Donna’s with there big cap hit sitting on IR.  Rossi kappy Boldy line won’t make it through the year . They will get run every game. We still have no secondary scoring so once they get kappy dinged up, the season or playoff round  will be over year after year.  It’s still the same team but now with new cap restraints. 

Do you wake up in the morning and just start complaining right away or do you also grumble in your sleep?

While it may be true that no one has won the Stanley Cup with that high of percentage of the cap going to one player, Pittsburgh won numerous cups with Crosby making $9M a year, even when the salary cap was $56.8M.  And guess what?  Making was also making $9M, so over 30% of the cap was in TWO players.  I'm not saying that paying Kaprizov doesn't make it more challenging to build a cup-winning team, but your assertions that the Wild aren't going to be able get there because of it are based more on your own negativity than anything else.

Also, you can drop the Rantanen and Marner contract comparisons.  Both of those players specifically wanted to play for those teams and took almost all the cap space those teams could offer them.  If they had more cap space available, the amounts would be even higher.  Don't act like that was the going rate.  Players know they can get more with the cap going up.  Even Tuch ist reportedly asking for ~$10M from Buffalo, and he wants to be there.

Anyone suggesting that the Wild could have gotten two skilled $7M players instead of paying Kaprizov that money aren't paying attention and are still stuck in the stagnant cap of the last few years.  Skilled players are going to go for what superstars used to get.  And teams will hold onto their $7M signed star players with a death grip because they won't be able to get anyone else of the same caliber for that cheap.  It's going to be hard to trade for any star players that's not on an expiring contract (unless the player wants out or the team wants to get rid of the player for other reasons) in the coming years, and the players that make it to free agency will be looking for the highest bidder because they finally can after years of not having that option because the cap barely moved each year.

It's going to be a different league, where the teams that can afford to spend to the rapidly rising cap will have a much better chance of winning than those who won't or can't.

Edited October 3 by raithis