Article: The Price For Kirill Kaprizov Doesn't Matter

[M_Nels]

40 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

so I'm not clear as to why bill and judd deserve any praise.

Just doing 1st rounders here back to Judd's 1st year.

Going back to 2020 Rossi #9 only 5 players after him have more points than he does but with more games played (some by a lot). After Rossi really the only superstar is Jarvis w/213pts in 304gp. 

2021 Wally #20 & Lambos #26..Great argument can be made here. Johnston was available 3 picks after Wally. Kids a stud so you could definitely say Johnston should've been picked and Wally snagged if he was still available at pick 26. Knies was available before Peart in the 2nd round, probably a miss there. After him there is a pretty big dropoff on GP. Lambos trending up however.

2022 Ohgren #19 & Yurov #24..Ohgren bust? After Yurov the phenom Hutson was available 2nd round. Other than him the 1st rounders outside of Yurov have 93gp 34pts across 8 players.

2023 Stramel #21 huge TBD on him, could very well be a miss. The guys after him in the 1st have a combined 15gp 2pts.

2024 Zeev #12. The guys after him have a total of 4gp 1pt.

Point being, you can't say that Bill/Judd have struck out looking on these picks and it's not like other teams are finding hidden superstars in later rounds that are NHL ready from the jump or being developed quickly in the AHL. Mid-late 1st round picks aren't a lock for stardom and rounds 2-3 are rarely filled with star talent (outside Hutson which every teams scouting dept. should be chided).

[MNCountryLife]

2 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

My original point is that our drafting is sub par so it wouldn’t matter if we gold plated the locker room in Iowa or brought in the 80’s Oilers for player development the on ice product would still blow. 

yep.. I was way off.  🤔

[NoJoSux]

13 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Agree, 3rd or beyond are crap shoots.  BUT 1st and 2nds should have a higher probability of making the NHL roster.  2020 was Brackett's first draft.  And please fight the urge to say "it's too early to tell"

2020: Khuz, O'Rourke, Hunt - GONG!

Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2020 Entry	9	1	Marco Rossi	C	Ottawa 67's [OHL]	185	45	56	101	85
2020 Entry	37	2	Marat Khusnutdinov	C	SKA Juniors (Russia)	91	6	10	16	26
2020 Entry	39	2	Ryan O'Rourke	D	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]
2020 Entry	65	3	Daemon Hunt	D	Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]	13	0	1	1	0

2021: Peart, Bankier - GONG!

Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2021 Entry	20	1	Jesper Wallstedt	G	Lulea HF [SweHL]	5	0	0	0	2
2021 Entry	26	1	Carson Lambos	D	Winnipeg Ice [WHL]
2021 Entry	54	2	Jack Peart	D	Grand Rapids [Minn. H.S.]
2021 Entry	86	3	Caedan Bankier	C	Kamloops Blazers [WHL]

2022: Haight is the great hope of this draft.  I'm not holding my breath on any of the other 21 years olds

Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2022 Entry	19	1	Liam Ohgren	L	Djurgardens Jr. [Swe-Jr]	28	3	4	7	2
2022 Entry	24	1	Danila Yurov	R	Magnitogorsk Metallurg [KHL]
2022 Entry	47	2	Hunter Haight	C	Barrie Colts [OHL]
2022 Entry	56	2	Rieger Lorenz	L	Okotoks Oilers [AJHL]
2022 Entry	89	3	Michael Milne	L	Winnipeg Ice [WHL]

2023: This group is especially dicey

Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2023 Entry	21	1	Charlie Stramel	C	U. of Wisconsin [Big-10]
2023 Entry	53	2	Rasmus Kumpulainen	C	Pelicans (Finland Jrs.)
2023 Entry	64	2	Riley Heidt	C	Prince George Cougars [WHL]

The overall is propped up right now based on the group of Wallstedt, Yurov, Ogie, Jcek, and Buium although he's a more recent pick. It's not nothing, but the prospect pool on paper is just one thing. The development and reality of where these guys languish or arrive is not the sidebar. Stories and hype-pieces are less weighty than what we'll watch happen. 

Haight being having a North American, OHL-Champ pedigree is promising. That might qualify as a little extra but the Brackett guruisms are few and far between if you asked me. Let's recall the Beckmans or Khovanovs of the past who scored a hundred points in major junior. Benak is a buzzsaw out there but let's be patient. Certainly, no reason not to like his goals and root for him. We liked Mason Shaw.  Benak is kinda a Euro version. 

[mnfaninnc]

6 hours ago, Patrick said:

You have obviously never negotiated a contract. 

What leverage did Kaprizov have? None. He isn't a free agent yet. They were equals at the table. 

Pretty simple stuff. When two parties have equal leverage (none in this case) and one walks away with a historic deal...the other got fleeced!

I have negotiated plenty of contracts. What you have shared, in a vacuum is absolutely accurate. And if you are using the free agent date as the final deadline your logic is sound.....except, that deadline isn't it.

In a perfect world, we would be able to make a reasonable deal where 2 parties of equal footing sit down and hammer out a deal, however this is not what has happened here.

Guerin was put behind the 8 ball by his owner earlier in the year. I'll give you that and with that advantage Theo. 

Kaprizov isn't a free agent, but if he isn't signed to an extension before he becomes one, the Wild seriously have to consider trading off his rights. Advantage Theo.

There is a bunch of fear around the Twin Cities that they are not a destination place for stars. They watched Gaborik walk away after an injury plagued last season and were very afraid this would happen again. Perhaps the owner was too since the prior happened just after he bought the team. Advantage Theo. 

Salary cap has gone up. Advantage Theo. The interesting thing here is that this should have been an advantage for OCL since he would have inside information on how much the owners think the cap will go up. However, he comes out ignorant of this, and clearly blows the advantage. This isn't getting fleeced, this is just downright stupidity on this point. 

While I alluded to it earlier, the Wild timeline before everyone including a fanbase got terrified was opening night. Since Theo could have just waited it out, but Guerin really couldn't or he'd risk losing a huge asset, he needed his timeline, not Kaprizov's or Theo's. Advantage Theo.

In theory, a regular negotiation happens between 2 arms lengthed parties agreeing. In this case, one party is under duress, and is more forced into the deal, much like the foreclosures and short sales of 2008-11. Banks were generally unwilling to work with a potential buyer when the advertised price was below what was owed. I ran into this plenty during that time. And that is the leverage that Kaprizov/Theofanus had in this negotiation. 

Now let's talk a little about getting fleeced. Because Kaprizov is a top of the market kind of guy, his comparable now resets the market for top of the market guys. So while selling the penthouses of the NHL will now require something over $15m, what we haven't seen is the next tier reset. Kaprizov's contract is now a leader where other players will try to get into that neighborhood. The dynamic is far more complex than a fleecing. 

If you are a negotiator, you know very well when you have someone over the barrel. While there was plenty of time on the player's side, Guerin was over the barrel and for his job, and the value of the franchise, he needed a deal way more than the player did. Fleecing is what happened when Herschel Walker came to town. This was not that.

[Lovehockey]

One thing not to forget- Kaprisov bring money to the team. National TV, sold out arena (yes we were sold out before him but for how long), merchandise sell and everything else around. I agree contract is huge and if u look at what top level players getting paid now - definitely overpaid. Money wise Wild can get Sasha Barkov or Tkachuk plus Bennett for same amount. And if this would be offered of course Wild will trade him right the way. The problem is this trade (or similar with other teams where money would be equal) would never be offered. And also ot is today money not tomorrow. So Wild did best they can and if Kaprisov healthy enough this is a good sign 

[Quebec1648]

Now that Kaprizov is signed, figure out a way to get Brady Tkachuk from Ottowa as Kaprizov`s new line partner. Trade Spurgeon to free the cap space. 

A combo of Kaprizov and Tkachuk would be great fun to watch.

[Patrick]

4 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

For players with 10+ games played last year, here are the top 10 in points per game:

1. Kucherov (1.55)

2. Draisaitl (1.49)

3. McDavid (1.49)

4. MacKinnon (1.47)

5. Kaprizov (1.37)

6. Pastrnak (1.29)

7. Marner (1.26)

8. Eichel (1.22)

9. Kyle Connor (1.18)

10. Auston Matthews (1.16)

Kaprizov seems to score like some top 10 players...

His scoring rate is definitely up there. Unfortunately he has averaged around 80 points a season for his career.  It's hard to score when you are not on the ice.

[Patrick]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I have negotiated plenty of contracts. What you have shared, in a vacuum is absolutely accurate. And if you are using the free agent date as the final deadline your logic is sound.....except, that deadline isn't it.

In a perfect world, we would be able to make a reasonable deal where 2 parties of equal footing sit down and hammer out a deal, however this is not what has happened here.

Guerin was put behind the 8 ball by his owner earlier in the year. I'll give you that and with that advantage Theo. 

Kaprizov isn't a free agent, but if he isn't signed to an extension before he becomes one, the Wild seriously have to consider trading off his rights. Advantage Theo.

There is a bunch of fear around the Twin Cities that they are not a destination place for stars. They watched Gaborik walk away after an injury plagued last season and were very afraid this would happen again. Perhaps the owner was too since the prior happened just after he bought the team. Advantage Theo. 

Salary cap has gone up. Advantage Theo. The interesting thing here is that this should have been an advantage for OCL since he would have inside information on how much the owners think the cap will go up. However, he comes out ignorant of this, and clearly blows the advantage. This isn't getting fleeced, this is just downright stupidity on this point. 

While I alluded to it earlier, the Wild timeline before everyone including a fanbase got terrified was opening night. Since Theo could have just waited it out, but Guerin really couldn't or he'd risk losing a huge asset, he needed his timeline, not Kaprizov's or Theo's. Advantage Theo.

In theory, a regular negotiation happens between 2 arms lengthed parties agreeing. In this case, one party is under duress, and is more forced into the deal, much like the foreclosures and short sales of 2008-11. Banks were generally unwilling to work with a potential buyer when the advertised price was below what was owed. I ran into this plenty during that time. And that is the leverage that Kaprizov/Theofanus had in this negotiation. 

Now let's talk a little about getting fleeced. Because Kaprizov is a top of the market kind of guy, his comparable now resets the market for top of the market guys. So while selling the penthouses of the NHL will now require something over $15m, what we haven't seen is the next tier reset. Kaprizov's contract is now a leader where other players will try to get into that neighborhood. The dynamic is far more complex than a fleecing. 

If you are a negotiator, you know very well when you have someone over the barrel. While there was plenty of time on the player's side, Guerin was over the barrel and for his job, and the value of the franchise, he needed a deal way more than the player did. Fleecing is what happened when Herschel Walker came to town. This was not that.

A good negotiator uses objective data, nearly everything you mentioned is subjective. If BG allowed such flimsy metrics to justify the signing he really proves the saying "a fool and his money are soon parted".

Its possible the Wild have internal data that gave leverage to KK but that seems unlikely.

I think this is simply a former athlete against a professional negotiator and the expected outcome. 

BG can't negotiate without obvious leverage.

Occam's Razor.

[Sam]

12 minutes ago, Patrick said:

His scoring rate is definitely up there. Unfortunately he has averaged around 80 points a season for his career.  It's hard to score when you are not on the ice.

Kucherov and MacKinnon both average around 83, I really don’t think he’s that far off. If it wasn’t for that behemoth (Stanley) landing on top of him and giving him a hernia or whatever it is, he would probably play more. 

[Patrick]

2 minutes ago, Sam said:

Kucherov and MacKinnon both average around 83, I really don’t think he’s that far off. If it wasn’t for that behemoth (Stanley) landing on top of him and giving him a hernia or whatever it is, he would probably play more. 

In the last three years KK has averaged 76 points per year.  Mac 122 and Kuch 126. 

Not even remotely close. When accounting for injuries Kap is very mid

I agree on Stanley. In fact it's 100% of the reason I don't like this signing. He hasn't looked the same since and I don't believe he ever will. That was a career altering injury.

[hydguy75]

11 hours ago, M_Nels said:

Moose, Trenin? Lesser extent Hartman, Middleton and Jiricek?

People complain about their contracts and blocking young guys but you're suggesting adding another 4th line plug??

Expecting something different than the past 3 seasons without a significantly different team is the definition of insanity.  We have a negligible different roster in a couple of new guys and 3 or 4 rookies since last year.  The Christmas in July never materialized.  How are we ever going to field KK for 82 games + playoffs healthy without a goon?  The entire NHL has our number.  Trust me, I'd love to see the Wild finally get some NHL respect too.  But the reality is not much has changed, so we shouldn't expect much different results.  Now, IF the additions and rookies gel and we get fantastic team play, and mustangs running 3+ lines deep, that will be a different story.  The Wild were decimated last year with the injury bug.  Some just a part of the game, some maybe more nefarious.  Either way, it gutted our momentum, and we need to avoid that.  So for $1-2M you wouldn't want provide padding? 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

14 minutes ago, hydguy75 said:

Expecting something different than the past 3 seasons without a significantly different team is the definition of insanity.  We have a negligible different roster in a couple of new guys and 3 or 4 rookies since last year. 

2-3 new defensemen. New backup goalie. Minimum of 4 new forwards.

Doesn't sound like the same old team to me. Rossi also worked out a ton in the offseason and might have more to offer. Trenin is likely faster and has a better understanding of his role.

Health will be key, but the Wild have a chance to be better than last year.

The guys gone are Fleury, Merrill, Chisholm, Gaudreau, Brazeau/Khusnutdinov, and Nyquist. There are reasons to believe that Wallstedt, Buium, Jiricek, Tarasenko, Sturm, Yurov, and Ohgren might be able to deliver more than the guys they are replacing. Johansson is likely replaced in the lineup by Tarasenko, but will probably have a role until Zuccarello returns.

Haight & Hinostroza could prove to be solid fill-ins for guys who miss time, and same could be said for Lambos.

If they have multiple top line forwards missing time again, I would agree that they will struggle, that's the key to your concern about doing things the same...the Wild were leading the league in points in December when they were healthy. That doesn't sound awful to me, so hopefully they can have better health once Brodin and Zuccarello are back from their injuries.

Boldy and Rossi could take steps forward in their development, and maybe Buium and Jiricek can prove to be better than Merrill and Chisholm by the time 2026 rolls around. I know they'll have some rookie moments, but if we can see growth from the youth, maybe their compete level for the playoffs jumps to new levels.

[hydguy75]

1 minute ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

2-3 new defensemen. New backup goalie. Minimum of 4 new forwards.

Doesn't sound like the same old team to me. Rossi also worked out a ton in the offseason and might have more to offer. Trenin is likely faster and has a better understanding of his role.

Health will be key, but the Wild have a chance to be better than last year.

The guys gone are Fleury, Merrill, Chisholm, Gaudreau, Brazeau/Khusnutdinov, and Nyquist. There are reasons to believe that Wallstedt, Buium, Jiricek, Tarasenko, Sturm, Yurov, and Ohgren might be able to deliver more than the guys they are replacing. Johansson is likely replaced in the lineup by Tarasenko, but will probably have a role until Zuccarello returns.

Haight & Hinostroza could prove to be solid fill-ins for guys who miss time, and same could be said for Lambos.

If they have multiple top line forwards missing time again, I would agree that they will struggle, that's the key to your concern about doing things the same...the Wild were leading the league in points in December when they were healthy. That doesn't sound awful to me, so hopefully they can have better health once Brodin and Zuccarello are back from their injuries.

Boldy and Rossi could take steps forward in their development, and maybe Buium and Jiricek can prove to be better than Merrill and Chisholm by the time 2026 rolls around. I know they'll have some rookie moments, but if we can see growth from the youth, maybe their compete level for the playoffs jumps to new levels.

Many unknown variables still, but trust me, I do share your optimism.  Most of us here do wish the Wild to be successful.  

[greg]

The Wild had little choice but to sign him.  It is a big risk for the team.  Over the past three years he has missed 25% of his teams games due to injury.  The pressure is on Kirill now to prove hes worth that much.    

[M_Nels]

10 hours ago, hydguy75 said:

Expecting something different than the past 3 seasons without a significantly different team is the definition of insanity.  We have a negligible different roster in a couple of new guys and 3 or 4 rookies since last year.  The Christmas in July never materialized.  How are we ever going to field KK for 82 games + playoffs healthy without a goon?  The entire NHL has our number.  Trust me, I'd love to see the Wild finally get some NHL respect too.  But the reality is not much has changed, so we shouldn't expect much different results.  Now, IF the additions and rookies gel and we get fantastic team play, and mustangs running 3+ lines deep, that will be a different story.  The Wild were decimated last year with the injury bug.  Some just a part of the game, some maybe more nefarious.  Either way, it gutted our momentum, and we need to avoid that.  So for $1-2M you wouldn't want provide padding? 

Christmas in July didn't happen because it was extremely weak and there really wasn't any big fish to go after and we didn't have a ton of money. Nelson? Boeser? Would the Wild be any better off with them? I'd say not really.

You really want a Reaves, DLo, Maroon, Sundqvist (kinda) type plug again? The team would be worse off, those guys added very, very little to the roster. 

The padding we have are much more skilled than those goons. Moose, Trenin, Mids, Hartman are way more valuable. If we want "old time hockey" doesn't Hartman fill the void of dirty plays? Doesn't Foglino run guys almost every game? C'mon man.

Edited Thursday at 12:10 PM by M_Nels

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, M_Nels said:

Sundqvist

Forgot about this dolt 

[0 Stanley Cups]

11 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

2-3 new defensemen. New backup goalie. Minimum of 4 new forwards.

Doesn't sound like the same old team to me. Rossi also worked out a ton in the offseason and might have more to offer. Trenin is likely faster and has a better understanding of his role.

Health will be key, but the Wild have a chance to be better than last year.

The guys gone are Fleury, Merrill, Chisholm, Gaudreau, Brazeau/Khusnutdinov, and Nyquist. There are reasons to believe that Wallstedt, Buium, Jiricek, Tarasenko, Sturm, Yurov, and Ohgren might be able to deliver more than the guys they are replacing. Johansson is likely replaced in the lineup by Tarasenko, but will probably have a role until Zuccarello returns.

Haight & Hinostroza could prove to be solid fill-ins for guys who miss time, and same could be said for Lambos.

If they have multiple top line forwards missing time again, I would agree that they will struggle, that's the key to your concern about doing things the same...the Wild were leading the league in points in December when they were healthy. That doesn't sound awful to me, so hopefully they can have better health once Brodin and Zuccarello are back from their injuries.

Boldy and Rossi could take steps forward in their development, and maybe Buium and Jiricek can prove to be better than Merrill and Chisholm by the time 2026 rolls around. I know they'll have some rookie moments, but if we can see growth from the youth, maybe their compete level for the playoffs jumps to new levels.

Agree with everything said here, but also add that this year the Wild will also have the added flexibility of cap space that hamstrung them with the Par/Sut buyouts, so the Wild could only go dumpster diving for cheaper depth pieces like Nyquist, etc. in previous seasons as opposed to adding a better player like Brock Nelson or Marchand at the TDL.

[mnfaninnc]

14 hours ago, Patrick said:

A good negotiator uses objective data, nearly everything you mentioned is subjective. If BG allowed such flimsy metrics to justify the signing he really proves the saying "a fool and his money are soon parted".

It very well could be that OCL wanted this done sooner rather than later having woken up with hot and cold sweats dreaming about the Gaborik fiasco. Guerin said pretty little about the negotiations, more or less denying what was being reported. 

OCL was the one who said Christmas morning. OCL was the one who said we can pay Kaprizov more than anyone else. OCL said that the deal was almost done when Kaprizov was jetting back into town. Yet, GMBG was the negotiator. 

After the Rossi negotiations finally drew down to a signing on what can be considered a team friendly deal, I wrote that the leverage that Guerin had in the Rossi deal would be reversed in the Kaprizov negotiations. This is precisely what has happened.

There were a couple of advantages Wild that I forgot to mention, but they are minor. The first is that Kaprizov said he likes it here. I would suggest that one of the things he likes about here is the moderate media coverage where he can kind of disappear from the public eye rather easily. The second is that he reportedly convinced Tarasenko to waive his NMC and come here. A third may have been, and this is pure speculation, that in the negotiations once he arrived, he may have told Guerin that he wants to be here. He still has broken English, and his communication is probably more straight forward than most. 

But, all of those do not outweigh the vast advantage Theofanus had on Guerin and his negotiating team. We also do not know the extent of nervousness and anxiety that the owner had in the background. We do know that from time to time, OCL has meddled. It would also be a severe team distraction having their star negotiating an extension while the season was going on, and this also is advantage Theo. 

But, for the sake of conversation, let's just say that this negotiation carried on into the regular season. 41 games are played through December 31st, still a long way from March 6th. Kaprizov is Kaprizov on the ice and is putting up numbers close to last season and has remained healthy. At what point, then, do you have to ask him where he wants to go, because you cannot, as an organization, let him walk for nothing? Even if this happens, the Wild deadline is before the player's. Heck, the player doesn't even need a July 1 deadline, especially if his intension was to re-sign. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

On 10/1/2025 at 9:25 AM, Patrick said:

You have obviously never negotiated a contract. 

What leverage did Kaprizov have? None. He isn't a free agent yet. They were equals at the table. 

Pretty simple stuff. When two parties have equal leverage (none in this case) and one walks away with a historic deal...the other got fleeced!

Anonymous agents commenting on this deal, as quoted in The Athletic

Agent 3: “Sometimes it’s just luck and circumstance. Kaprizov had all of the right leverage — a rising cap, a team that had a bunch of guys already signed. The other reality is the cap’s set too low this year. I think you’re going to find that the cap is not just going to be at $104 (million) next year, and I think that $113.5 (million in 2026-27) is going to end up being like $120 (million). So the cap is going to go much higher, and sometimes it’s timing and situation, and I think that’s what happened here.”