Article: The Price For Kirill Kaprizov Doesn't Matter

[0 Stanley Cups]

Interesting that Billy G and Russo both confirmed last night on Barreiro's show that Kaprizov's camp countered at an even higher number before settling on the $17AAV.  Leipold didn't do BG any favors in this negotiation, well he's writing the paychecks.  And even though the cap is increasing to $104M, then $113.5M, there's speculation the cap could increase even more than expected in those next two years. 

As long as Gus is playing well this season, if anyone thinks he's going to take a team friendly deal, guess again.  He'll be at least $6.5-8M for a starting goalie, otherwise he'll just hit free agency, and we better be sure Wally can be a No. 1.  Also, didn't realize until last night that Cal Peterson catches righty, you don't see too many of those goalies, it always throws me off a bit.

[Sam]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Nyquist Tarasenko

#rinsed

#rinseandrepeat

[Patrick]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

You just aren't being realistic. Kaprizov's agent had a ton of leverage because if the deal didn't get done this year, he could sign anywhere else next offseason for $15M+, assuming he doesn't get injured. That will be the new reality of salary cap increases. Kaprizov is viewed as a top 10 player, and borderline top 5.

So, the Wild could have played hardball and ended up in the position they were in after Gaborik left for nothing--that eventually led to them overpaying for Parise and Suter. They went into this offseason with lots of cap space, but most of the teams are going to have cap space as the salary cap escalates and they weren't able to win any free agent sweepstakes.  Keeping Kaprizov was their best chance at being a viable contender and filling the stadium every night.

I'm not suggesting the Wild had no chance to sign Kaprizov at a lower number, but they weren't going to finish negotiations below $15M. The agent knew the Wild didn't want to lose Kaprizov given how vital he is to their plans for contention, so he squeezed them because he did have leverage.

The Wild didn't do a great job at negotiating to the lowest cap number, that we can agree on, but they just were never going to sign an 8 year deal below $14M. The extra money that Kaprizov's agent got from them is roughly equal to the dead cap hits that will finally go away a few years into his deal--from Parise and Suter.

In the end all of this could be true.  Unfortunately we will me know because the Wild didn't let the process play out.  

Right now there is no leverage. He isn't a free agent and can't talk to other teams.

What happens if...

1) KK has a sub par season and finishes with 88 points? His value goes down.

2) KK gets injured (please no!) and misses 30 games? His value goes down.

3) McDavid and Eichel each sign for 14,15 ish?  His value goes down.

It's an alternate universe question at this point so we will never know but I can't see why they wouldn't have waited until May or June to offer him this much.  And KK isn't top 5. He isn't top 10 in any rankings I've seen. 

It's crazy. Excluding his rookie year he has averaged 82 points a year and has never gotten out of the first round....

[MNCountryLife]

2 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

Lock up Gus asap and ride the wave.

Gus has been great.  I am hoping that Wallstedt is better.  I would delay this signing for as long as possible.  If Wallstedt plays well the Wild could sign Gus for a lot less or even be willing to let Gus go and let Wallstedt be our #1.  If Wallstedt has a rough go of it then do as you mentioned at try to lock in Gus...and probably have to pay close to $8.

[MNCountryLife]

1 hour ago, Scalptrash said:

Then there is the current state of the Iowa Wild, a neglected wasteland. That needs to be a first class organization if they ever hope to develop players from within. If ownership was serious, Iowa would have the best facilities and coaching in the AHL.

YES!!!  This comment here.  IA Wild needs the best facility, the best coaches, the best trainers, the best everything.  The better they are at their job the better the MN Wild will be.  

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, M_Nels said:

Iowa does have nice facilities, not like they're playing in the old Buccaneers arena or anything.

They used to be somewhat respectable when Army was coaching. Hopefully Cronin can get the ship steered right.

Went to a couple playoff games in 2018-2019 that they made it to the 2nd round. In 2019-2020 they had a great start and then we all know what happened there..2022-2023 they made the qualifying round but lost.

They do need to do a better job of development sure but McLean obviously wasn't doing a good job of that. 

Billy and Judd have done a pretty decent job through the draft with where they draft IMO. Please don't let this derail into a tank thread. Stramel is a huge "we'll see" but you have Buium, Yurov, Haight, Ohgren, Lambos (kinda) vying for opening night roster and Wally cemented as no2 you're doing ok.

Biggest draft pick "peddles" were for Jiricek and he's on the rise.

 

Garbage In Garbage Out

It's not the weight room or dining facilities in Iowa.  It's the product that's being sent there to be developed.  Although I think by now it's consensus opinion that Brett McLean was grossly negligent in every role he held within the Wild Org., so addition by subtraction, I guess.  Rossi #9, Buium #13 and Jiri #6 so can't give to much credit for these players showing promise at young ages.  At least Judd didn't Benoit Poulliot those picks, as far as we know right now.

Yurov, Ogz, Khuz, and Haight are all unproven and at 21 yo, not sure they belong on the big club (not to mention the other 20-25 picks that'll never see the ice in St Paul) so I'm not clear as to why bill and judd deserve any praise.

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, Sam said:

#rinseandrepeat

Nyquist Tarasenko

#expired

[Pewterschmidt]

43 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

Gus has been great.  I am hoping that Wallstedt is better.  I would delay this signing for as long as possible.  If Wallstedt plays well the Wild could sign Gus for a lot less or even be willing to let Gus go and let Wallstedt be our #1.  If Wallstedt has a rough go of it then do as you mentioned at try to lock in Gus...and probably have to pay close to $8.

Agree 100%.  If we've learned anything about goalies it's that they're mercurial and streaky.  Please do not overpay for GUS now.  Hope Wall-e is competent and then deal GUS for a top 6 forward.  

[Pewterschmidt]

41 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

YES!!!  This comment here.  IA Wild needs the best facility, the best coaches, the best trainers, the best everything.  The better they are at their job the better the MN Wild will be.  

This is the same logic an NFL team owner uses when they say "hey taxpayers, gift me a new $1B stadium and then the on-the-field product won't suck so much".  I understand why the owner asks for it.  I don't understand why taxpayers are so damned gullible. 

[Willy the poor boy]

7 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

so I'm not clear as to why bill and judd deserve any praise.

Minnesota N'ice', don't ya know...

[0 Stanley Cups]

45 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

If Wallstedt plays well the Wild could sign Gus for a lot less or even be willing to let Gus go and let Wallstedt be our #1.  If Wallstedt has a rough go of it then do as you mentioned at try to lock in Gus...and probably have to pay close to $8.

How Gus performs this year will determine his contract value in the future with or without the Wild, regardless of how Wally performs this year.

[MNCountryLife]

5 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

It's not the weight room or dining facilities in Iowa.

How often do we see a 3rd round or later make it?  That is where the IA Wild should be judged.  Are we turning more of those types of players into NHLers than other teams?

[MNCountryLife]

2 minutes ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

How Gus performs this year will determine his contract value in the future with or without the Wild, regardless of how Wally performs this year.

I can't disagree... It certainly could.  Especially if Gus is okay with moving to another team.  MN has been a goalie friendly team and Gus has seen what happens to goalies that leave as well as been one of those goalies on other teams...  smells pretty nice in MN for goalies.   If Wally plays well and Gus wants to stay it may take some team friendly pay to make it happen....

[0 Stanley Cups]

2 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

I can't disagree... It certainly could.  Especially if Gus is okay with moving to another team.  MN has been a goalie friendly team and Gus has seen what happens to goalies that leave as well as been one of those goalies on other teams...  smells pretty nice in MN for goalies.   If Wally plays well and Gus wants to stay it may take some team friendly pay to make it happen....

I'd prefer to spend money wisely having a solid D core than the highest paid goalie in the league, but goalie is a fickle position.  Look at what happened in Pittsburgh after Fleury, Matt Murray took over, then Tristan Jarry both of which looked terrific at first, only to implode later.  I agree we can't lock up too much money in two goalies, but a solid tandem is still necessary.  The fact that Gus worked out for the Wild was the biggest stroke of luck for BG after he canned Talbot.  Gus will be UFA after this season, and Wally RFA in two, so we shouldn't need to pay Wally $8M in two years, he could probably be bridged and eventually trade one in four or five years from now.

[MNCountryLife]

9 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

This is the same logic an NFL team owner uses when they say "hey taxpayers, gift me a new $1B stadium and then the on-the-field product won't suck so much".  I understand why the owner asks for it.  I don't understand why taxpayers are so damned gullible. 

I have to disagree with this take.  If I'm an owner, I want my players healthy.  If a player tweaks his hamstring and I can get an MRI in 30 minutes and know that he will have permenant damage if he keeps playing... that is huge.  Facilities matter.  Having new weight equipment that protects players matters.  Have you seen the new state of the art monitoring equipment and software that actually tracks fatigue and injury and can push a player up to but not over the limit of what the body can handle..  That stuff is amazing.  You should check out Marquette University's HPAC program.  (Human Performance Assessment Core)  Amazing stuff they are doing.  I spent an afternoon talking with the department there and pro teams willing to spend the time and money are seeing huge performance rewards.

Doing it the right way with the latest technology and equipment definitely makes a difference.  

[MNCountryLife]

4 minutes ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

I'd prefer to spend money wisely having a solid D core than the highest paid goalie in the league, but goalie is a fickle position.  Look at what happened in Pittsburgh after Fleury, Matt Murray took over, then Tristan Jarry both of which looked terrific at first, only to implode later.  I agree we can't lock up too much money in two goalies, but a solid tandem is still necessary.  The fact that Gus worked out for the Wild was the biggest stroke of luck for BG after he canned Talbot.  Gus will be UFA after this season, and Wally RFA in two, so we shouldn't need to pay Wally $8M in two years, he could probably be bridged and eventually trade one in four or five years from now.

I agree with everything you just said.  Add in I thought Cal Peterson (30yo) played pretty well this preseason he could make for some interesting choices if BG wants to get creative.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, Patrick said:

It's an alternate universe question at this point so we will never know but I can't see why they wouldn't have waited until May or June to offer him this much.  And KK isn't top 5. He isn't top 10 in any rankings I've seen. 

For players with 10+ games played last year, here are the top 10 in points per game:

1. Kucherov (1.55)

2. Draisaitl (1.49)

3. McDavid (1.49)

4. MacKinnon (1.47)

5. Kaprizov (1.37)

6. Pastrnak (1.29)

7. Marner (1.26)

8. Eichel (1.22)

9. Kyle Connor (1.18)

10. Auston Matthews (1.16)

Kaprizov seems to score like some top 10 players...

[Pewterschmidt]

31 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

How often do we see a 3rd round or later make it?  That is where the IA Wild should be judged.  Are we turning more of those types of players into NHLers than other teams?

Agree, 3rd or beyond are crap shoots.  BUT 1st and 2nds should have a higher probability of making the NHL roster.  2020 was Brackett's first draft.  And please fight the urge to say "it's too early to tell"

2020: Khuz, O'Rourke, Hunt - GONG!

Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2020 Entry	9	1	Marco Rossi	C	Ottawa 67's [OHL]	185	45	56	101	85
2020 Entry	37	2	Marat Khusnutdinov	C	SKA Juniors (Russia)	91	6	10	16	26
2020 Entry	39	2	Ryan O'Rourke	D	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]
2020 Entry	65	3	Daemon Hunt	D	Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]	13	0	1	1	0

2021: Peart, Bankier - GONG!

Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2021 Entry	20	1	Jesper Wallstedt	G	Lulea HF [SweHL]	5	0	0	0	2
2021 Entry	26	1	Carson Lambos	D	Winnipeg Ice [WHL]
2021 Entry	54	2	Jack Peart	D	Grand Rapids [Minn. H.S.]
2021 Entry	86	3	Caedan Bankier	C	Kamloops Blazers [WHL]

2022: Haight is the great hope of this draft.  I'm not holding my breath on any of the other 21 years olds

Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2022 Entry	19	1	Liam Ohgren	L	Djurgardens Jr. [Swe-Jr]	28	3	4	7	2
2022 Entry	24	1	Danila Yurov	R	Magnitogorsk Metallurg [KHL]
2022 Entry	47	2	Hunter Haight	C	Barrie Colts [OHL]
2022 Entry	56	2	Rieger Lorenz	L	Okotoks Oilers [AJHL]
2022 Entry	89	3	Michael Milne	L	Winnipeg Ice [WHL]

2023: This group is especially dicey

Draft	Num.	Round	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2023 Entry	21	1	Charlie Stramel	C	U. of Wisconsin [Big-10]
2023 Entry	53	2	Rasmus Kumpulainen	C	Pelicans (Finland Jrs.)
2023 Entry	64	2	Riley Heidt	C	Prince George Cougars [WHL]

[Pewterschmidt]

27 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

That stuff is amazing.  You should check out Marquette University's HPAC program.  (Human Performance Assessment Core)  Amazing stuff they are doing.

This makes my point.  The Wild org. having redundant medical facilities (TRIA, Twin Cities Ortho, many hospitals, etc.) would be a bad business decision.

[Pewterschmidt]

3 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

This makes my point.  The Wild org. having redundant medical facilities (TRIA, Twin Cities Ortho, many hospitals, etc.) would be a bad business decision.

And there are plenty of facilities in Iowa.  These org. are feasting on the insurance companies 

[NoJoSux]

45 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

I can't disagree... It certainly could.  Especially if Gus is okay with moving to another team.  MN has been a goalie friendly team and Gus has seen what happens to goalies that leave as well as been one of those goalies on other teams...  smells pretty nice in MN for goalies.   If Wally plays well and Gus wants to stay it may take some team friendly pay to make it happen....

I'm still hoping the Vaj smell gets better. 

[Pewterschmidt]

4 minutes ago, NoJoSux said:

I'm still hoping the Vaj smell gets better. 

Rumor is that he’s a douche

[MNCountryLife]

8 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

This makes my point.  The Wild org. having redundant medical facilities (TRIA, Twin Cities Ortho, many hospitals, etc.) would be a bad business decision.

Maybe I'm not grasping your point.   It sounds like you are stating that the IA Wild either have what they need or can get it down the street.  I feel like my interpretation is just way off here.  I think you lost me. 

[Pewterschmidt]

Just now, MNCountryLife said:

Maybe I'm not grasping your point.   It sounds like you are stating that the IA Wild either have what they need or can get it down the street.  I feel like my interpretation is just way off here.  I think you lost me. 

My original point is that our drafting is sub par so it wouldn’t matter if we gold plated the locker room in Iowa or brought in the 80’s Oilers for player development the on ice product would still blow. 

[MNCountryLife]

20 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Agree, 3rd or beyond are crap shoots.  BUT 1st and 2nds should have a higher probability of making the NHL roster.  2020 was Brackett's first draft.  And please fight the urge to say "it's too early to tell"

Cool to see it laid out like that.  well done!   Puts our drafts into clarity pretty quickly.