Article: The Price For Kirill Kaprizov Doesn't Matter

[Pewterschmidt]

Z Boo took a step last night.  Kid has a chance to be our Duncan Keith.

[mnfaninnc]

39 minutes ago, hydguy75 said:

That is exactly what I am thinking too.  Wild didn't add much size or significant skill for this season, so last years' teams already know to shut down the Wild by shutting down KK.  If that's via more physical play directed at KK, we will need that threat of an enforcer, an insurance policy. 

One thing I've noticed about the Wild is that the big guys like Trenin or Foligno tend to hit but not consistently in the regular season. They save themselves for the playoffs. I think this is a trend I've seen league wide too. While I wouldn't have any problems with Foligno taking an occasional shift on line 1, I do think that it's not just protecting Kaprizov. This team needs to have the mentality if you go after Kaprizov and so much as sneeze in his direction, we will kneecap your 2 best players. 

Yes, you need a meathead probably who can perform this, but at the same time, you've got to act on it. You can't have a Boldy slapping a 4th liner for sticking his knee out. You don't win going after the perpetrator. You win by dumping McDavid head first into the post and then pouncing on him.

Honestly, everyone was up in arms about Hartman piledriving Stutzle into the ground. While that may have been less called for, that's exactly what needs to happen to another teams' star if Kaprizov is handled. Something dirty and cheap that will cost a player suspension games. And it needs to be done by a replaceable guy.

Let's revisit our reputation. Morrissey blatantly crosschecks Staal in the neck on the PK and gets no penalty. The Wild bench is told by their captain to calm down. Series over. The following year Eric Staal, leading scorer is ushered head first into the boards, a commotion ensues but there is not payback as captains again decided no retaliation. In these cases, you needed a guy like Bogosian to cheap shot horribly their best player and injure him, knocking him out of the series. It's brutal but necessary. At this point in time, we still have the above reputation. Referees know it, other teams know it. The league will not protect this franchise. They must do it themselves, and doing it generally means a meltdown.

[M_Nels]

6 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Haight = Marco 2.0?  Of the three, this is the kid with the best chance to help the team the most this season.  kid needs to be prepared to play bottom six minutes (4C) so don't expect much help from your wingers but I'm betting on this kid for this season.

Kid has shown out in the preseason, making a strong case for himself to be a starter. Think Sturm coming back relegates him to the pressbox unfortunately. 

Could do some fanagle'n to make a spot but would require Hartman to play back on wing and one of Ohgren, Tarasenko, Yurov or Trenin to be in the pressbox and/or in Iowa.

[mnfaninnc]

47 minutes ago, Patrick said:

They shouldn't have opened with "nobody is going to pay more"

When you sign the largest contract in NHL history for a wing, with injury history, who has never been considered a top 5 player.  You got played.

I have to disagree with this take. I agree that OCL should have kept his mouth shut. But, nobody was signing for $13m, that ship had sailed about midseason last year when the new cap numbers came out. There was hope that we could get $15m, but that also had sailed when we found about about Paul T.'s reputation as an agent. 

We didn't get played, we were in a position where we couldn't not sign him. Everyone knew that and the more panic that was setting in over the Gaborik 2.0 possibility just had the money clicking up like getting gas at the gas station. Paul T. definitely took advantage of every narrative going on but that's not getting played, that's leverage. He had it. The thing that we will be struggling with, all of us, is what capflation looks like. 

I'm one of the most conservative salary guys in the comment section. I've been on the low side of almost every negotiation. I'd hoped that Kaprizov would take a hometown discount to try and build a team around him. But, that was a fluttering hope. And, Paul T. owed it to Kaprizov to negotiate the best deal for him, and for the players coming up. He likely will have more business representing guys in the future. 

But let's face it, and this is the honest truth, it was far more important for the Wild to have Kaprizov extended NOW, than it was for Kaprizov to sign now. And that is where 8 x $17m comes in. Paul T. relented, he could have gone for more, and we would have paid more. I'm thinking Kaprizov may have told him enough.

[mnfaninnc]

52 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Rantanen signed 3 months ago. Theu knew the cap situation.

It's not signing another Trenon. It's the difference between signing a guy who can play first line and score 35 and signing a guy who plays 2rd line and scores 25. 

It's being able to retain Fiala v having to trade him.

Largest overpay in NHL history.  Go read national forums for an unbiased take. The front office got fleeced.

Rantanen did sign for less, you're right. He signed on a team that already had youth making large money with more having to be resigned. Were you paying attention to Dallas' offseason where Robertson was being dangled since they didn't have money to resign him? 

Dallas is in a different place than the Wild. Ranty will get the benefit financially of no state income tax, so his net does go up. But he is also surrounded by guys who are a couple years ahead of the Wild players. 

The front office did not get fleeced. They were backed into a wall and the circumstances dictated pay up. So, Carolina is also a good team and wanted to give Ranty a similar deal, maybe even higher. He didn't sign there. He liked the Dallas system as it was closer to what he played in 'Rado. Carolina is a final 4 team and could have used Ranty against FL. They're a really good team. But, he went where he wanted to and they probably had this deal in place as a trade condition. In this case, Ranty didn't hold all the cards being a member of the Hurricanes. Very different situation.

[mnfaninnc]

23 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Pewter's Prospect Comp's:

Ogz = playoff Trenin.  Lot's of energy.  lot's of chasing.  outstretched stick attempting to cut off lanes.  very low hockey IQ.  

Yurov = Johan Larsson.  At 21 yo after KHL experience i expected more.  very tepid play.  Have yet to see the kid make a hockey play in 5 games.  Breakout passes, or shooting a one timer is not a hockey play.  hockey play = creating offense

Haight = Marco 2.0?  Of the three, this is the kid with the best chance to help the team the most this season.  kid needs to be prepared to play bottom six minutes (4C) so don't expect much help from your wingers but I'm betting on this kid for this season

I tried to watch last night but not on ESPN+. So, I watched a bit of the Chicago game keeping my eyes on Jiricek, Lambos, Yurov and Spacek. Buium looked fine and will improve.

I thought that Lambos was ready, and am hoping today we hear that Johnson has been let go of his PTO. Spacek, I thought looked pretty good. Both Lambos and Spacek look like they've added significant strength in the offseason.

Jiricek looks like he hangs around too long at the offensive blue line and needs to learn when to back off. I didn't like him QBing the 2nd PP, I think he's better at shooting from Ovechkin's office. 

Yurov looked bigger than I thought he would be, and he was very visible on the ice and in position. I'm not sure what you're seeing but I thought he played well. He didn't look out of place. 

Haight I think will start in the A, but he is improving still and is an RHS. His goal was nice. 

Bottom line is that our kids are developing and I think all of them got bigger this summer. That's good news.

[Patrick]

40 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I am severely doubting this statement is true based upon the track record of Kaprizov's agent. Just as Rossi had little to no leverage in his situation, Guerin had little to none in Kaprizov's negotiation.

You have obviously never negotiated a contract. 

What leverage did Kaprizov have? None. He isn't a free agent yet. They were equals at the table. 

Pretty simple stuff. When two parties have equal leverage (none in this case) and one walks away with a historic deal...the other got fleeced!

[Patrick]

52 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

 rather that we didn't sign him at all? Oh no, they 'overpaid' a superstar by $3M!! How will they ever recover?! 

8x4 is 32 million. That's the biggest overpay in NHL history. 

With a decent front office it isn't a matter of sign him at 17 or not at all.  

[0 Stanley Cups]

35 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

But let's face it, and this is the honest truth, it was far more important for the Wild to have Kaprizov extended NOW, than it was for Kaprizov to sign now. And that is where 8 x $17m comes in. Paul T. relented, he could have gone for more, and we would have paid more. I'm thinking Kaprizov may have told him enough.

I'm super glad that this contract got resolved before the season started.  Maybe another eye opener for Kaprizov to sign now, was the realization that Barkov just blew out his MCL & ACL, which is something that can happen to anyone.  Remember when John Klingberg turned down an $7Mx8 with Dallas, then had significant hip issues, how did that turn out for him, major oops!

[Patrick]

55 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I am severely doubting this statement is true based upon the track record of Kaprizov's agent. Just as Rossi had little to no leverage in his situation, Guerin had little to none in Kaprizov's negotiation. His only duty was to get the amount right and spell his name correctly on the contract. 

You keep talking about leverage like this was free agency. It's not. Kaprizov had none. Guerin had none. 

The truth is (as you said in another post) they panicked and it shows.

Any objective analysis shows the Wild overpaid and by a LOT. 

If this deal happens in free agency I would agree with everything you are saying.

I'm involved with contract negotiations for work. The Wild bungled this badly.

- the said nobody will pay more before it even started.

- they paid maximum well before the deadline (big no no)

- they didn't let the factors that could have helped them play out. (McDavid signing, KK's health or a down season)

It's mind boggling with this sum of money to be so amateurish.  But I guess when you put a professional in the field against a former athlete masquerading as a professional that's the result. I wouldn't expect Theofanous to beat Guerin in a one on one game of hockey.

 

[B1GKappa97]

27 minutes ago, Patrick said:

8x4 is 32 million. That's the biggest overpay in NHL history. 

With a decent front office it isn't a matter of sign him at 17 or not at all.  

lol if you thought they were gonna sign Kaprizov for $13M you were only fooling yourself. That's not how sports economics work.

Especially when the salary cap starts rising.

[0 Stanley Cups]

58 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Z Boo took a step last night.  Kid has a chance to be our Duncan Keith.

Buium can definitely dangle with the puck, he doesn't have blazing speed but he's quick and shifty, but Boldy was unreal last night, his hands are crazy good.

[greg]

Only time will tell if this was a good deal for the Wild.  As of Wednesday the Wild as a team are no better off than last year.  Kaprisov signing an 8 year extension didn't really change much. This team is still not a Stanley Cup contender at this point.  Their winning windows could be short lived.  I really hope it all works out as I love the Wild.  But we've been hearing the same line for 25 years now.  Im beginning to Wonder if the Wild and Twins have the same public relations director..

[BeanPole Harvester]

1 hour ago, Patrick said:

Rantanen signed 3 months ago. Theu knew the cap situation.

It's not signing another Trenon. It's the difference between signing a guy who can play first line and score 35 and signing a guy who plays 2rd line and scores 25. 

It's being able to retain Fiala v having to trade him.

Largest overpay in NHL history.  Go read national forums for an unbiased take. The front office got fleeced.

Let's be honest, every take on every forum is biased.

[Pewterschmidt]

Nyquist Tarasenko

#rinsed

[Burnt Toast]

9 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Draisaitl,

Shouldn’t be used a a benchmark for future  projections. Leon and Rants inked the last of the flat cap era contracts. Things appear to be moving even faster than the player’s agents can keep up with. The next two years are setting up to be quite volatile. Lock up Gus asap and ride the wave. 

[Patrick]

45 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

lol if you thought they were gonna sign Kaprizov for $13M you were only fooling yourself. That's not how sports economics work.

Especially when the salary cap starts rising.

Maybe. Maybe not. If he tears his hamstring and misses another 25 games there isn't a team in the NHL paying him over 12. There was no reason to sign him now.

[Will D. Ness]

18 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Maybe. Maybe not. If

Dying on a hill with "if" on your gravestone isn't all that glorious.

[Patrick]

4 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

Dying on a hill with "if" on your gravestone isn't all that glorious.

I think you missed the point...

[FredJohnson]

10 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

$13M was never in the cards with this agent, but if the Wild started at $14M, and initially tried anchoring on that number, it's possible they may have been able to sign him in the $15M range.

I think KK’s agent was dug in on what he got for KK based on info he got from other teams tampering. But that’s my opinion…

[Scalptrash]

18 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Minnesota spent decades trying to get a player of his caliber.  They may not get another for another two decades.  Worth the risk.  Build the team around the players you have, not the ones you "hope" may come here instead.

They 100% lucked into Kaprizov. Don't forget he was a 5th round draft pick. This is the only way they are going to get superstars, by scouting the fringes and getting lucky. The owner won't let them tank for top five draft picks and no top 20 free agent is going to sign with Minnesota.

A competent GM would help too. Someone who recognizes true talent and is willing to make big moves. Not someone who piddles away draft picks and prospects to fill roster spots with old, slow, vets. Then there is the current state of the Iowa Wild, a neglected wasteland. That needs to be a first class organization if they ever hope to develop players from within. If ownership was serious, Iowa would have the best facilities and coaching in the AHL.

[FredJohnson]

Last Night’s Game

David Jiricek is not rosterable as a starting D-man.

[B1GKappa97]

59 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Maybe. Maybe not. If he tears his hamstring and misses another 25 games there isn't a team in the NHL paying him over 12. There was no reason to sign him now.

You are flat out wrong on this. Especially about a hammy tear. 

In an open UFA market, he very likely would have gotten even more than $17M as everyone's cap went up by $9M. 

[M_Nels]

16 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

A competent GM would help too. Someone who recognizes true talent and is willing to make big moves. Not someone who piddles away draft picks and prospects to fill roster spots with old, slow, vets. Then there is the current state of the Iowa Wild, a neglected wasteland. That needs to be a first class organization if they ever hope to develop players from within. If ownership was serious, Iowa would have the best facilities and coaching in the AHL.

Iowa does have nice facilities, not like they're playing in the old Buccaneers arena or anything.

They used to be somewhat respectable when Army was coaching. Hopefully Cronin can get the ship steered right.

Went to a couple playoff games in 2018-2019 that they made it to the 2nd round. In 2019-2020 they had a great start and then we all know what happened there..2022-2023 they made the qualifying round but lost.

They do need to do a better job of development sure but McLean obviously wasn't doing a good job of that. 

Billy and Judd have done a pretty decent job through the draft with where they draft IMO. Please don't let this derail into a tank thread. Stramel is a huge "we'll see" but you have Buium, Yurov, Haight, Ohgren, Lambos (kinda) vying for opening night roster and Wally cemented as no2 you're doing ok.

Biggest draft pick "peddles" were for Jiricek and he's on the rise.

 

Edited Wednesday at 04:53 PM by M_Nels

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 hours ago, Patrick said:

You have obviously never negotiated a contract. 

What leverage did Kaprizov have? None. He isn't a free agent yet. They were equals at the table. 

Pretty simple stuff. When two parties have equal leverage (none in this case) and one walks away with a historic deal...the other got fleeced!

You just aren't being realistic. Kaprizov's agent had a ton of leverage because if the deal didn't get done this year, he could sign anywhere else next offseason for $15M+, assuming he doesn't get injured. That will be the new reality of salary cap increases. Kaprizov is viewed as a top 10 player, and borderline top 5.

So, the Wild could have played hardball and ended up in the position they were in after Gaborik left for nothing--that eventually led to them overpaying for Parise and Suter. They went into this offseason with lots of cap space, but most of the teams are going to have cap space as the salary cap escalates and they weren't able to win any free agent sweepstakes.  Keeping Kaprizov was their best chance at being a viable contender and filling the stadium every night.

I'm not suggesting the Wild had no chance to sign Kaprizov at a lower number, but they weren't going to finish negotiations below $15M. The agent knew the Wild didn't want to lose Kaprizov given how vital he is to their plans for contention, so he squeezed them because he did have leverage.

The Wild didn't do a great job at negotiating to the lowest cap number, that we can agree on, but they just were never going to sign an 8 year deal below $14M. The extra money that Kaprizov's agent got from them is roughly equal to the dead cap hits that will finally go away a few years into his deal--from Parise and Suter.