Article: Analyst Predicts Potential Intense Bidding War for Kirill Kaprizov

[Thomas Williams]

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[FredJohnson]

Are there any teams better than us with cap space to go after Kap? Pretty sure the usual cup contenders (Florida, Edmonton, Carolina, Dallas 🤮, Jets, Avenots, Knights) are all tight to the cap and would have to dump players to fit Kap under the cap. (Or fake a couple injuries like LV did.)

[0 Stanley Cups]

9 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

Are there any teams better than us with cap space to go after Kap? Pretty sure the usual cup contenders (Florida, Edmonton, Carolina, Dallas 🤮, Jets, Avenots, Knights) are all tight to the cap and would have to dump players to fit Kap under the cap. (Or fake a couple injuries like LV did.)

I'll modify your question, are there any teams with better GM's that could create cap space to go after Kaprizov?  Yes! 

I'm most leery of Tampa Bay, if we end of having to trade him to TBL, they would have to dump Hagel's $6.5M to the Wild to start.  If Kirill totally screws the Wild like Gaborik and hits UFA, the cap jumps approx. $9M next season, then a lot of teams can go after but he likely isn't getting an $16-18M offer the Wild can offer from a contending team.

[0 Stanley Cups]

1 minute ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

I'll modify your question, are there any teams with better GM's that could create cap space to go after Kaprizov?  Yes! 

I'm most leery of Tampa Bay, if we end of having to trade him to TBL, they would have to dump Hagel's $6.5M to the Wild to start.  If Kirill totally screws the Wild like Gaborik and hits UFA, the cap jumps approx. $9M next season, then a lot of teams can go after but he likely isn't getting an $16-18M offer the Wild can offer from a contending team.

Unless NYR dumps Panarin (same KK agent) for a haul at the trade deadline, then signs KK to a massive number, but their roster is getting older, the Wild have a better roster of young talent.

[mnfaninnc]

I think we're going to have to come to grips with a 20% of the cap player if we want to keep Kaprizov. I didn't think he was all about the money, but we do know that his agent is all about the money. 

So, I've been thinking a bit. Let's just say that the cap goes to $170m during Kaprizov's contract. When he signed his $9m deal what was the cap? It was $81.1m. Is Kaprizov better than when he signed that deal? Yes. At the time, that put him at around 11-12% of the cap. 

When does anyone think that we will get the 2nd superstar? Unless that player comes through internally, and if what most are saying here, MN is not a destination franchise, will we be able to catch the big fish? I would have to say unlikely to that answer. Could Boldy be that 2nd guy? Yes, I think that is possible and even better than 50/50. 

Does Kaprizov want to handcuff us from acquiring another superstar, maybe a center for him? I don't think he does, but I also don't think his agent cares. His agent is in this to get Kaprizov the very best deal he can, and also to have other players see that he does this and perhaps switch over to his representation. His history suggests that he couldn't care less about a team's salary structure and will push for the most cash. Ultimately, Kaprizov is his boss in this negotiation, and will have a say as to whether or not he really wants to be here. My hope is that he chooses us.

Some say Guerin is intimidating and a bit arrogant. Yet, with an agent such as this, he has met his match. This guy will not be intimidated, and while Guerin held the cards in the Rossi negotiation, a reshuffling of the deck has produced him with a pair of deuces, and the agent looking at a full house. Even if the agent knows that Kaprizov wants to stay in MN, he hasn't let Guerin or the public in on that. Kaprizov has said all the right things but is letting his agent be his agent. 

Now, who knows, perhaps Guerin was preparing for this reality when he squeezed Rossi, since he had to find money from some place, especially early on in these contract years. But, it's not the Rossi negotiation next time that will make us top heavy, it is the Boldy negotiation that is going to do it. 

Buium should get a good piece, Jiricek should get a decent piece, and so should The Wall. We've got some great cap room now and should we resign Kaprizov for a close to max deal, we'll have some space for a little while, but that will change in about 4 seasons. But, then again, so will the other 31 teams' cap.

 

[Scalptrash]

His rejection pretty much says he doesn't believe the Wild can contend anytime soon. The Wild will have to significantly overpay to keep him, and what choice do they really have. Leipold wants butts in seats and w/o 97 there will start being a lot of empty ones.

I think Kirill would accept less money from a contender. Probably in the $14M range. The Wild will probably have to pony up $18Mx8 if they want to keep him (or something like $16x3, if term is the issue). Is he worth that? Even in the high cap era the NHL is entering into, two $9M players could outperform him and provide much more stability and security.

Is it about having and watching a superstar or building a cup contender? It's very difficult to have both. The Panthers are the new blueprint.

[MNCountryLife]

Players have value.  If their pay exceeds the on ice value they provide they become detrimental to the team.  Draisaitl just signed for $14M.  McDavid will likely sign the largest contract ever... and both those guys have a higher on ice value than Kirill.  They have proven it the last few years by taking the Oilers to the cup finals... but have not taken home the cup ... yet.  

Don't get me wrong.  I want to sign Kirill and hope it comes in at or less than $16M.  But Scalptrash makes a good point that two guys providing $9M on ice value could have more value than Kirill.  There is a limit to this madness.  Kirill has been fighting injuries the last 2 years.  Last 3 years his points have been 75,96,56.  A 75 point average.  Rossi and Boldy are not far behind.

Kirills demands could prevent the Wild from becoming a contender as easily as helping.  Especially if injuries continue.  There comes a point where you let him walk... and we are dangerously close to that level.

[0 Stanley Cups]

The Wild should pause for the moment, and wait to see if McDavid or Eichel sign in the interim.  If McDavid re-signs at $17-18M, because he realizes with EDM situation he can't consume 20% of the current cap, well that kind of destroys Kaprizov's (or more likely his agents) leverage.  A lot of other superstars around the league have accomplished much more than Kaprizov has at the moment, I hope he has a Hart or Rocket Richard caliber season this year, but it hasn't materialized yet.

[FredJohnson]

4 hours ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

then a lot of teams can go after but he likely isn't getting an $16-18M offer the Wild can offer from a contending team.

That's my point. He's probably after more money but will he sacrifice being on a bad team to get a bigger paycheck.

If it's not about the money, then sign here first less and let us get some free agents.

[FredJohnson]

1 hour ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

The Wild should pause for the moment, and wait to see if McDavid or Eichel sign in the interim.

This^^^
KK97's agent has famously taken contracts negotiations to the edge many times.  Both of KK's contracts to date were a challenge coming down to the wire.

[FredJohnson]

8 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

If it's not about the money, then sign here first less and let us get some free agents.

* then sign FOR less *

[Dean]

I like kappy , amazing player. But he’s not worth 17-19 mil. That’s just ridiculous. He has a hard nosed agent but krill is in control. Craig saying he’d pay whatever was a joke and krill is holding him to it. If he signs long term I can’t see him be worth the money in the back half of contract. Sign him to short deal and deal with this headache in a few years. He’ll have a Nmc and stick up the wild for another bs contract or walk . He can’t be about winning if he wants everyone else’s money. To think if they sign him for more and every year he’s on IR half the season what’s the point. Basically we’re asking Billy to build a contender in a new way. With the highest paid player that’s not worth the money,  , can’t stay healthy  and only cares about money. What a teammate. The talk about minny being a different market that kappy has more value in because they don’t have a superstar is ridiculous. He’s just an over paid star , often injured on a shit team that gets bounced in first round every year. 
    IMO it’s time for this franchise to lay down the law on this. Stop negotiating against yourself. You offered 2 mil more then a better player signed for a year ago. Enough. Shorten deal at that number or get a list of teams to trade him to. Then trade him . If he doesn’t want to be traded. Stick him in the flipping press box for a season. Let him sit there game after game for a year. They have a young core,  so if you could get something for kappy and try to move on in the window there  in, that would be best for the organization   Better than a broken overpaid Russian. Kappy can’t be counted on to be healthy or here due to his crazy demands. Just be done with him. 

[B1GKappa97]

4 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

His rejection pretty much says he doesn't believe the Wild can contend anytime soon. The Wild will have to significantly overpay to keep him, and what choice do they really have.

Or it says that he recognizes the payday he could get if he hit UFA and knows that $16M isn't close to what he'd get on an open market. 

Unlike Rossi, Kirill Kaprizov has the leverage to demand he get paid fairly relative to his market value. So yeah, the Wild will have to overpay, because other teams would overpay to get him and Craig Leipold so wisely admitted that nobody would be paying him more than us. 

Kaprizov's agent is making the owner put his money where his mouth is.

[B1GKappa97]

3 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

There is a limit to this madness.  Kirill has been fighting injuries the last 2 years.  Last 3 years his points have been 75,96,56.  A 75 point average.  Rossi and Boldy are not far behind.

Rossi had 4 points in all of March without Kaprizov. And despite missing half the games last year, Kirill finished all of 2 goals behind Matt Boldy for the team lead. They are absolutely far behind. 

56 points in 41 games makes Kirill a 100-pt player and neither Rossi or Boldy are anywhere near that pace. 

If we want to win a Cup anytime soon, we need Kaprizov. And if that means paying him $20M or so, then so be it.

We go no where without him, we have a shot with him. The good news is that if you look at the ledger over the next few seasons (during Kap's prime) the GM has done a good job to leave a lot of cap space for us to fit in #97 AND add other pieces. 

Edited September 16 by B1GKappa97

[Willy the poor boy]

36 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Rossi had 4 points in all of March without Kaprizov. And despite missing half the games last year, Kirill finished all of 2 goals behind Matt Boldy for the team lead. They are absolutely far behind. 

56 points in 41 games makes Kirill a 100-pt player and neither Rossi or Boldy are anywhere near that pace. 

If we want to win a Cup anytime soon, we need Kaprizov. And if that means paying him $20M or so, then so be it.

We go no where without him, we have a shot with him. The good news is that if you look at the ledger over the next few seasons (during Kap's prime) the GM has done a good job to leave a lot of cap space for us to fit in #97 AND add other pieces. 

I believe 20% of the cap would mean he'd max out at 19.1 million clams per...

[MNCountryLife]

16 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

We go no where without him, we have a shot with him. The good news is that if you look at the ledger over the next few seasons (during Kap's prime) the GM has done a good job to leave a lot of cap space for us to fit in #97 AND add other pieces. 

How many teams went further in the playoffs than the Wild and Kirill was playing.  To make the statement that we go nowhere without Kirill simply isn't true.  You also have to consider injury history.  Some guys just find ways to play while others miss games. 

There is an argument to be made that having two $9M/AAV players would be better than having one $18M/AAV player.  I won't pretend to know which way is better... I don't.  I would imagine on which players are being paid that as well.  

I want Kirill to be signed.  The guy is a lot of fun to watch and obviously the best player the Wild have ever had on the roster.  I hope we sign him.  But there has to be a max.  You can't pay the guy 50% of the cap.  Are we hurting our ability to compete if we pay him 20%?  I think that is debatable. 

[raithis]

4 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

How many teams went further in the playoffs than the Wild and Kirill was playing.  To make the statement that we go nowhere without Kirill simply isn't true.  You also have to consider injury history.  Some guys just find ways to play while others miss games. 

There is an argument to be made that having two $9M/AAV players would be better than having one $18M/AAV player.  I won't pretend to know which way is better... I don't.  I would imagine on which players are being paid that as well.  

I want Kirill to be signed.  The guy is a lot of fun to watch and obviously the best player the Wild have ever had on the roster.  I hope we sign him.  But there has to be a max.  You can't pay the guy 50% of the cap.  Are we hurting our ability to compete if we pay him 20%?  I think that is debatable. 

Where are you going to get two $9M players? 

No team is going to trade the Wild two $9M players in their primes.  They might trade them if they are older and no longer producing at that level.

With the cap going up, teams don't have to let those kinds of players go.  They can keep them.  And even if they don't, the Wild don't have a history of being able to attract those types of players.  With Kaprizov maybe.  Without him, doubtful unless Boldy, Rossi, etc start producing a lot more than they do now.  I like both of them, but they are a huge step down from Kaprizov.

There's no way the Wild are able to get two $9M production players unless a) they develop them, or b) they overpay for them, meaning we probably pay $11M for both of them and we are quickly in a Parise/Suter situation again.

This talk of getting of being able to get two players better than anyone else on our roster besides Kaprizov when we've struggled to get anyone besides Kaprizov for YEARS is complete fantasy.

[raithis]

On 9/16/2025 at 8:28 AM, FredJohnson said:

Are there any teams better than us with cap space to go after Kap? Pretty sure the usual cup contenders (Florida, Edmonton, Carolina, Dallas 🤮, Jets, Avenots, Knights) are all tight to the cap and would have to dump players to fit Kap under the cap. (Or fake a couple injuries like LV did.)

Carolina has over $10M in cap space now AND most of their team is already signed for next year when the cap goes up ~$9M more.

[MNCountryLife]

52 minutes ago, raithis said:

Where are you going to get two $9M players? 

The what if game.  How big of a salary is Buium going to demand if he transitions into a Makar type player?  What happens if Yurov ends up being your next Sam Bennett or Barkov.  Who is our next Fiala?  Boldy is only 24 and still getting better.  His contract will come due when he is 29.  What will we pay for it?

Almost all teams spend premium dollars to bring in free agents with a few exceptions like the Panthers, Vegas and Dallas. 

There is always ways to spend money.  It's BGs job to get a ROI.  Which I've taken to mean that the players AAV is at or lower than the on Ice value.

Are you okay paying Kirill $22M/AAV?  Where is your limit?  I'm okay at $16M/AAV.  Maybe $17M/AAV.  But $18... nope... I don't go there.  Of course my opinion means nothing.  It only matters what Leipold thinks his value is and what Kirill thinks he can get.  Some players need to be humbled.  

[mnhockeyfan03]

16mm is already an overpay that will handcuff the team.  Don’t budge and get his trade list.  Trade him to Carolina for svechnikov, kotkeniemi and a 1st round pick

[NoJoSux]

I have always doubted OCL's judgment. He goofed up bad hiring Fenton, and getting Guerin was fortunate timing for him as an owner. He got some of Fletcher's best years and those weren't too great either. He certainly hasn't done much good with his recent statements about Kirill.  

Just a few months ago we were talking about his value being around 13M. Then, between OCL, the cap increase, and all this nonsense in the last couple of weeks, it is now up to 16M+. Crazy.

The Wild were just liberated from huge cap penalties and here they are looking to spend huge, according to OCL. Guerin needs to just be patient. Kirill needs to start the season like he did last and stay healthy. He's a top player in the league no question, but I don't think he's the best player in the NHL. Not the most durable, dominant, or defensively sound. That's what you want in an elite 1C like Barkov. 

The Wild can't lose him like a Gaborik scenario, but they also can't trade him away for just anyone. If forced to trade Kaprizov, GBMG has to get a quality return. 

Based on what OCL has said and the superstar status, best ever for the organization, the leverage is really on Kirill's side. Tampa has nothing much to offer. Other teams who are in the top of their divisions in favorable locations also lack the kinds of assets that could make ya feel good coming back if Kaprizov left. 

Just thinking out loud, but I don't believe much of the rumors about this and that. Mainly, OCL gums-up the works and the Wild have some serious yet vague issues that remain undefined without consensus related to attracting or retaining star players. The way this plays out will offer evidence one way or the other. I hope Kirill signs and Guerin can persuade him to stay for less than the max. The Guerin era has built up to now. The next 6 months are a crossroads IMO. Prospects, cap, superstar, regular season, all critical elements in the equation to get ultimate results. Probably better odds it goes wrong than right, when you add the media BS and OCL fueling speculation and cultivating confusion. 

[B1GKappa97]

10 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

How many teams went further in the playoffs than the Wild and Kirill was playing.  To make the statement that we go nowhere without Kirill simply isn't true. 

How many teams were also missing $14M in cap space at the same time? I imagine being able to add some more talent, like we've done this year, might've flipped the VGK series in our favor. And then who knows what happens, because Vegas played the Oilers tighter than the Stars wound up doing. 

We know that a Boldy-Ek-Kaprizov line can be one of the best in the playoffs, so that's a great starting point at the very least. 

Next season, even if he signs for $19M and the Wild re-sign Gus for $6M AAV, they'll still have $13M with only Jiricek as an RFA. Our only other UFAs are Tarasenko, Zuccy, BOGO and Johansson.

If they want to move on from a Trenin or Spurgeon or Hartman (if Yurov is ready to be a C) at that point they could free up even more space to make a bigger splash in the trade market or UFA. 

You miss out on Kap and it becomes much harder to see how they advance in the playoffs instead of just needing up upgrade some middle-6 depth. 

Edited September 17 by B1GKappa97

[MNCountryLife]

14 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

You miss out on Kap and it becomes much harder to see how they advance in the playoffs instead of just needing up upgrade some middle-6 depth.

There is no doubt that Kirill brings a lot to the table.  If he didn't this wouldn't be a discussion about making him the highest paid player in the league.  Losing him would be catastrophic for the season unless we got an extremely good return from him. (doubtful) How it affected future years would depend on who we could get in the future with the extra cap space.

You can overpay for some players if other players are willing to sign for less.  Players tend to be willing to sign for less when a superstar exists on the roster that they wish to play with... or the team is a legitimate contender.  

I kind of thought $16M/AAV (16.75% of cap this year) was already an overpay.  There must be a limit.... and I'll stick to that train of thought.   Paying a single player 20% (1/5th) of the entire cap space you are allotted is a clear overpay for any player in the league....including McDavid.  This year that will be $19.1M.  

You exceed that limit and the difficulty in reaching the cup becomes just as hard as it does without the player.

[raithis]

22 hours ago, MNCountryLife said:

The what if game.  How big of a salary is Buium going to demand if he transitions into a Makar type player?  What happens if Yurov ends up being your next Sam Bennett or Barkov.  Who is our next Fiala?  Boldy is only 24 and still getting better.  His contract will come due when he is 29.  What will we pay for it?

Almost all teams spend premium dollars to bring in free agents with a few exceptions like the Panthers, Vegas and Dallas. 

There is always ways to spend money.  It's BGs job to get a ROI.  Which I've taken to mean that the players AAV is at or lower than the on Ice value.

Are you okay paying Kirill $22M/AAV?  Where is your limit?  I'm okay at $16M/AAV.  Maybe $17M/AAV.  But $18... nope... I don't go there.  Of course my opinion means nothing.  It only matters what Leipold thinks his value is and what Kirill thinks he can get.  Some players need to be humbled.  

If all of those players are THAT good, the Wild will have multiple Finals appearances and there won't be a lot of people complaining (though some still will).

As ELCs run out, veteran contracts also run out, so some will just use that space that opens up.  It isn't like everyone is going to be signed for Boldy or Faber deals.

Again, I'm not advocating Kaprizov get $16M, but to answer your question, no one will be okay with $22M because it would violate the CBA.  The most they could pay him per the CBA for next year would be a little over $20M.  And again, I'm not advocating that.  I'm simply saying that the people who are saying we should get two $9M dollar players to replace him are delusional.  No one is going to give up two $9M players and we will not be able to.attract players who are worth that without Kaprizov.  In order to get players of that caliber without a superstar like Kaprizov already on the roster, we would likely have to overpay them to come here.  Anyone who would normally make $9M is going to have a bidding war for them (cap going up + teams able to retain talent = likely lack of high end players at free agency with a lot of other teams who have $9M more in cap space to work with too), so any free agent would have to want to come here.

I'd prefer Kaprizov signs for $13-14M personally.  I won't deny that if his contract is higher, it makes it harder to have money to pay other elite players.  It won't be impossible, but it will cause some choices to have to be made to depth in 3 years if players currently on ELCs at that time aren't able to be competent NHLers.

[raithis]

21 hours ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

16mm is already an overpay that will handcuff the team.  Don’t budge and get his trade list.  Trade him to Carolina for svechnikov, kotkeniemi and a 1st round pick

Zero chance Carolina offers that much for Kaprizov. 

Kaprizov can list as few teams as he wants.  If Carolina is the only teams he wants to go to, they don't have to move a single contract to get him. They already have more than $10M in cap available so they could just offer prospects and picks.

They would likely offer a good player (but not the ones you listed), a high-to-medium prospect, and a high-ish pick.  They don't have to offer more, because if they want him and he wants to go there, they can just wait until free agency and still have all their top forwards.  The Wild would either have to take it or lose him for nothing at the end of the year.  And then everyone will say that Guerin didn't get enough for Kirill...

If Kaprizov is only interested in going to a team that can't afford him, then the Wild might be able to get a marginally good player if they want him that bad to shake up their roster that much.  It really depends where he would want to go and what kind of contracts that team has.  If it's evident that he only wants to go to one team, that team can put forth as little as they feel like as long as it is something they feel the Wild would accept rather than losing him for nothing.

This is the sort of situation where choosing not to budge leaves fewer options for the party who stops talking.  They are better off to keep talking it over and trying to come to an agreement, or at least staying on good terms.  Both sides need to continue making their case, and I believe that will be better if Kaprizov is in the room sometimes when those things are discussed.  Making ultimatums and not being willing to budge at all won't help the Wild at all.