Article: A Kaprizov Exit Would Signal Minnesota Isn't A Destination For Big-Name Players

[Justin Wiggins]

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[Pewterschmidt]

We aren't ready for this conversation yet.  If 97 bails, then we'll have a full-on intervention.  It's too soon for this conversation though.  We're all a little on edge right now.

[SkolWild73]

I will remind everyone that Florida went to the cup finals in 1996, then did not make it out of the first round until 2022, which was only their 7th playoff appearance since 96. As far as I know, taxes have been the same there, so what changed that somehow they are now a destination that players want to go there and stay there?  Pretty simple to me, they started winning.  

[Justin Wiggins]

21 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I will remind everyone that Florida went to the cup finals in 1996, then did not make it out of the first round until 2022, which was only their 7th playoff appearance since 96. As far as I know, taxes have been the same there, so what changed that somehow they are now a destination that players want to go there and stay there?  Pretty simple to me, they started winning.  

I love the Florida comparison. I think it is a great playbook for Wild fans. The big difference? They had a superstar in Barkov, and then traded for another one in Tkachuck. Include Bobrovksy in net, and they put together a team that made them desirable for other players to want to be there. Superstars come first, then the wins.

[SkolWild73]

6 minutes ago, Justin Wiggins said:

I love the Florida comparison. I think it is a great playbook for Wild fans. The big difference? They had a superstar in Barkov, and then traded for another one in Tkachuck. Include Bobrovksy in net, and they put together a team that made them desirable for other players to want to be there. Superstars come first, then the wins.

True, and if Kap stays, we are pretty close to that.  Off to the woods for some hunting this weekend and will be out of service.  Would love to come back Sunday night to some sort of resolution

Edited September 12 by SkolWild73

[Kato AK]

32 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I will remind everyone that Florida went to the cup finals in 1996, then did not make it out of the first round until 2022, which was only their 7th playoff appearance since 96. As far as I know, taxes have been the same there, so what changed that somehow they are now a destination that players want to go there and stay there?  Pretty simple to me, they started winning.  

The salary cap as we know it (Max and Floor) started in 2005-2006, so thats what changed. Prior to that, teams generally spent 75% of their revenue on players salaries and when a team is in a small market (florida at the time) they couldn't pay players as much.

The initial salary cap was $30.9MM with a max single contract of 20% or $7.8MM. With a 23 man roster, there wouldn't be a huge pay gap between players on a competitive roster, so players focused more on being on competitive teams than the payday. 

[Dean]

Lou Nanne had been talking this summer about how krill’s agent was a tough negotiator and was going to stick it to the wild for a pay day because he was so valuable to franchise. So if krill is holding out for more money , when is it to much? Is krill worth 18-19 mil for a franchise that can’t get talent to come here? A left winger making as much as or more than the # 1 center in league. Could the wild even build around that?  It’s hard to to see how having the highest priced player on a middling team gets us anywhere. Middle to Late round picks aren’t going to fill In the holes or buy what we need. Free agents won’t come here when the rest of the nhl  has a pocket full of cash to spend due to cap rising.  It’s starting to seem like turning down the offer has put the wild in a dammed if ya do or dammed if you don’t scenario . Lose kappy for peanuts or blow your salary cap to keep him.  If kappy leaves , it’s about winning.  If kappy stays it’s only about money. Craig running around saying he’ll spend whatever to sign kappy was a joke. Now kappy knows you’ll do anything.  Well played Craig.

i don’t see how this plays out without it being an embarrassment to the franchise. Kappy gone or kappy here with no money to fill in around him. Not great planning for future. 

[MNCountryLife]

Barkov has been in the league for 12 years and is still only 30yo.  Wow.  What a fantastic career.... and he will add to it.  Players sure do like playing with winners.. and Barkov is a winner.  He was doing well before the panthers started enticing people like Tkachuk.  But no player wins it on their own.  I hope Kirill understands that before he asks for a $17M/AAV contract.

[SkolWild73]

1 hour ago, Kato AK said:

The salary cap as we know it (Max and Floor) started in 2005-2006, so thats what changed. Prior to that, teams generally spent 75% of their revenue on players salaries and when a team is in a small market (florida at the time) they couldn't pay players as much.

The initial salary cap was $30.9MM with a max single contract of 20% or $7.8MM. With a 23 man roster, there wouldn't be a huge pay gap between players on a competitive roster, so players focused more on being on competitive teams than the payday. 

It was still 15 years after the cap changed before they advanced past the first round

[1Brotherbill]

6 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

I will remind everyone that Florida went to the cup finals in 1996, then did not make it out of the first round until 2022, which was only their 7th playoff appearance since 96. As far as I know, taxes have been the same there, so what changed that somehow they are now a destination that players want to go there and stay there?  Pretty simple to me, they started winning.  

You kind of answered your own question.  The Panthers have tanked or been really bad often since they joined the league.  Since 2015 they have drafted in the top 10 a lot.  If you toss in 2011 when they drafted Huberdeau who they traded to for Tkachuck they have a lot of top end talent on the roster.  In that same time frame Minnesota has drafted lower in each draft and once in the top 10 with Marcon Rossi.  Rossi is great and all but you can't compare him to Tkachuck, Barkov, Lundell, and Ekbald.  They even drafted a first round goalie in that time at number 12 and they traded him away for an elite defenseman.  Add in a organization from top to bottom that wants to win a cup and keep Tampa out of the finals and you have the reason why Florida is the destination now. 

[1Brotherbill]

Honestly if Kirill goes they should push the five year plan to a ten year plan and just tank for four years and draft the generational talents that come out every year it seems now.

The rumor is that Kirill has given names to a team he wants to go to.  If one of those teams is a team that could finish in the top 3 in the draft trade him to that team and get that pick.  Kirill, even though he is special, I doubt he makes a tangible difference in lets say Chicago or Buffalo or San Jose.  Next year sure this year not. Then as the future rolls on keep signing players like NoJo to ensure you get three or four top ten players on this team and then get rid of the GM and Coach and go from there. 

[mnfaninnc]

19 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

so what changed that somehow they are now a destination that players want to go there and stay there?

Easy answer: Matthew Tkachuk was traded for. That specific move changed the whole organization. It isn't just about his physical play, but about the intangibles that he brought with him. They started winning because he put them on his back and drug them through playoff series. 

Florida made several fine moves to get to a competitive level, even upper competitive level, but were always seen as Tampa's little brothers. Tkachuk changed that. His brother plays a similar game which is why I've been banging the drumbeat to try and trade for him (something that is off the table now). He would have done the same for this franchise. 

This is exactly the type of player we need. A strong physical player who does not accept losing and is talented enough to play on the top line and produce a PPG even though he might be in the penalty box for significant time. This player needs to be in his low to mid 20s as his shelf life will not be long into his 30s. 

[mnfaninnc]

18 hours ago, Kato AK said:

The salary cap as we know it (Max and Floor) started in 2005-2006, so thats what changed. Prior to that, teams generally spent 75% of their revenue on players salaries and when a team is in a small market (florida at the time) they couldn't pay players as much.

The initial salary cap was $30.9MM with a max single contract of 20% or $7.8MM. With a 23 man roster, there wouldn't be a huge pay gap between players on a competitive roster, so players focused more on being on competitive teams than the payday. 

Let's just add that a couple of years before Tkachuk came Florida started to attract fans. For many years, they were a bottom 5 team in attendance. There was little interest for the team, until they won. Even then, sometimes in playoff games there were empty seats. 

Also, and I'm not sure if this matters, but an awful lot of wealthy New Yorkers moved to south Florida (Miami area) during the Covid pandemic. In fact, Miami is now a rival to Wall Street and is the Wall Street of the south. Those New Yorkers who moved down with intentions of it being temporary stayed, because Florida stayed open and New York did not. 

Let me be clear, this is not about politics, this is about human migration. The business climate was essentially closed in New York as they chose to shut down most things. The people migrated to where things were open. This can be verified by real estate prices that took off in south Florida (even though it was a hot market before). Whether or not New York or Florida were right to do what they did, the people went to where things were open and they could support their families, and the kids could attend school and do extracurriculars. 

Why would this even be important? Because northerners were more likely to attend hockey games. While they may have been NYG, NYI, NJD or even BUF fans, they may have been converted into Panther fans, especially the kids. I also think ticket prices were more reasonable for them to see the above teams when they came to town. Regardless of how Florida filled their arena, they parlayed that money into building a "favored" team to win the Stanley Cup, likely converting many casual fans into real hockey fans. And don't underestimate the kids who moved down from north influencing the other kids about liking hockey. 

[mnfaninnc]

18 hours ago, Dean said:

Lou Nanne had been talking this summer about how krill’s agent was a tough negotiator and was going to stick it to the wild for a pay day because he was so valuable to franchise. So if krill is holding out for more money , when is it to much? Is krill worth 18-19 mil for a franchise that can’t get talent to come here?

Maybe we should investigate this a little deeper. When Parise and Suter were brought in, they had to be overpaid too, but some of that overpay was to make the Wild a destination place, not an at the end of your career place. To some extent, I think they did that. 

Does a Kaprizov overpayment do the same thing? He isn't very vocal in English about such things, but I would think there are some players out there who would love to play with Kaprizov. So, in that aspect, he may make MN more of a destination. Does he have pull with more talented Russian players? That can be seen with his impact on Tarasenko. 

Does $18-19m mean he can have an impact that way and help recruit players we normally couldn't recruit to play here? Maybe, maybe not. While I have a little different take than Dean on the all about money front, I think a larger contract may signal that OCL believes that the cap keeps going up heavily after the 3 year window that we know about.

While not public, I believe the owners/governors of the league have a pretty good handle on where this is going in the next 5-6 years. All good businessmen would. It may seem expensive now, but with the ELCs we could afford it. If we're looking at $113.5m in 3 years, $122m in 4 years, and $131m in 5 years, this could work. Who does this hurt? McDavid's next contract probably goes north of this. Matthews next contract likely does too. Draisaitl looks, suddenly, like a bargain. Eichel may get a boost and it will be seen as a team friendly deal. $18-19m, while expensive now, would, indeed, reset the market.

[ArizonaWildFan]

26 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Let's just add that a couple of years before Tkachuk came Florida started to attract fans.

Great post... mnfaninnc! This is why I really enjoy HW. Thank you!

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

The Panthers have tanked or been really bad often since they joined the league.  Since 2015 they have drafted in the top 10 a lot.  If you toss in 2011 when they drafted Huberdeau who they traded to for Tkachuck they have a lot of top end talent on the roster.

This is very true, but they didn't really take advantage of the high picks. They hit 2 years in a row with Barkov and Ekblad, and they got Huberdeau. Out of all of those picks, Kulikov is the only one to hit 1,000 games....yet. Interesting, too, they kept getting top picks, and tearing it down.

Another observation is that Florida did have to wait for Ekblad and Barkov to mature. They weren't superstars overnight. In other words, results lagged. They really built their team by adding guys off the scrap heap, and then gaining players like Reinhart who fell out of favor with their teams.

One other thing I'd like to point out, the drafts between '20-23 are highly volatile with the Covid shutdowns and their development being stifled. The drafts were more like a crap shoot, and the teams with the best amateur scouting are likely the ones to win this timeframe. 

If we do end up trading Kaprizov, we are now a few years removed from this draft. Getting players more fully developed from these drafts should be a priority. Don't pay attention to where they were drafted, pay attention to their development.

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

Honestly if Kirill goes they should push the five year plan to a ten year plan and just tank for four years and draft the generational talents that come out every year it seems now.

One way you could plan for this is by running the kids out there and prioritizing their development. I think these kids are going to be really good, but as I said above, results lag. Get a couple in the '20-23 drafts that you like + draft picks for Kaprizov and build a really deep, 200' team that can score on 3 lines with a 4th shutdown line. Our D depth is still pretty good.

That would mean, any top draft picks, who should be here earlier in their careers would have competent young players to play with. That could be special.

[Dango]

Im having a hard time believing all good players are going to turn down a piece of the 100 million dollar cap allowance ,  

[Dango]

14 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

Honestly if Kirill goes they should push the five year plan to a ten year plan and just tank for four years and draft the generational talents that come out every year it seems now.

 

But that can also hurt player confidence if they have to accept below average success, nobody wants to suck especially players that are already successful  "  top talent top draft picks "  

[Scalptrash]

20 hours ago, Dean said:

Craig running around saying he’ll spend whatever to sign kappy was a joke. Now kappy knows you’ll do anything.  Well played Craig.

i don’t see how this plays out without it being an embarrassment to the franchise. Kappy gone or kappy here with no money to fill in around him. Not great planning for future. 

Leipold is honestly this teams biggest problem. He needs to keep his big mouth shut, about everything. At least in the media.

[Scalptrash]

The Wild has never been a destination for the leagues better players. The only big names they have ever acquired are usually older and their careers are sloping downward. Parise and Suter were the biggest gets in franchise history and the only reason they signed here was to be closer to home. They both signed to end their careers here.

Buying them out was self inflicted and did a lot of damage to the team's reputation and to the mindset of the players on the roster. It was just horrible timing as far as Kaprizov was concerned. Some of his best years were wasted on a cash strapped, mediocre team (he was also underpaid, bad taste in the mouth).

He obviously doesn't want to handcuff himself to a team with no winning history. The moves that have been made recently are questionable at best. Was Jiricek really needed? Couldn't those assets and future money have been spent on a complimentary top six forward? The Wild have always prided themselves in defense and goaltending and have neglected scoring depth. Was putting a lot more eggs in the back end basket worth it? I would imagine Kaprizov feels the same.

Faber, Jiricek, Buium, and Wallstedt are great pieces for the future (hopefully!), but what about the offense and helping Kaprizov and Ek out? I'm not surprised at all that Kaprizov doesn't want to commit to this team, especially long term. Just look at the history and how dysfunctional it's been.

[Burnt Toast]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Easy answer: Matthew Tkachuk was traded for.

2019 Blues pick up Ryan O’Reilly and it changed their entire dynamic. Sure they gave up Tage T. , a first, second and 2 other decent players. It’s hard to find these types of players in their prime but they do come around. 

[Pewterschmidt]

52 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

The Wild has never been a destination for the leagues better players. The only big names they have ever acquired are usually older and their careers are sloping downward. Parise and Suter were the biggest gets in franchise history and the only reason they signed here was to be closer to home. They both signed to end their careers here.

Buying them out was self inflicted and did a lot of damage to the team's reputation and to the mindset of the players on the roster. It was just horrible timing as far as Kaprizov was concerned. Some of his best years were wasted on a cash strapped, mediocre team (he was also underpaid, bad taste in the mouth).

He obviously doesn't want to handcuff himself to a team with no winning history. The moves that have been made recently are questionable at best. Was Jiricek really needed? Couldn't those assets and future money have been spent on a complimentary top six forward? The Wild have always prided themselves in defense and goaltending and have neglected scoring depth. Was putting a lot more eggs in the back end basket worth it? I would imagine Kaprizov feels the same.

Faber, Jiricek, Buium, and Wallstedt are great pieces for the future (hopefully!), but what about the offense and helping Kaprizov and Ek out? I'm not surprised at all that Kaprizov doesn't want to commit to this team, especially long term. Just look at the history and how dysfunctional it's been.

Cutting Stall after a great season was pure bonehead by bill.  Most legit #1 C in team history but bill wanted to remake the team with his fingerprints all over it.  Genius. 

[BeanPole Harvester]

4 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Maybe we should investigate this a little deeper. When Parise and Suter were brought in, they had to be overpaid too, but some of that overpay was to make the Wild a destination place, not an at the end of your career place. To some extent, I think they did that. 

Does a Kaprizov overpayment do the same thing? He isn't very vocal in English about such things, but I would think there are some players out there who would love to play with Kaprizov. So, in that aspect, he may make MN more of a destination. Does he have pull with more talented Russian players? That can be seen with his impact on Tarasenko. 

Does $18-19m mean he can have an impact that way and help recruit players we normally couldn't recruit to play here? Maybe, maybe not. While I have a little different take than Dean on the all about money front, I think a larger contract may signal that OCL believes that the cap keeps going up heavily after the 3 year window that we know about.

While not public, I believe the owners/governors of the league have a pretty good handle on where this is going in the next 5-6 years. All good businessmen would. It may seem expensive now, but with the ELCs we could afford it. If we're looking at $113.5m in 3 years, $122m in 4 years, and $131m in 5 years, this could work. Who does this hurt? McDavid's next contract probably goes north of this. Matthews next contract likely does too. Draisaitl looks, suddenly, like a bargain. Eichel may get a boost and it will be seen as a team friendly deal. $18-19m, while expensive now, would, indeed, reset the market.

Mnfan, I always love your posts. Well thought and well written.

I've been seeing some articles over the last 2-3 days indicating that the salary cap is expected to double over the next 10 years possibly peaking out at $170mil.

[WildNotMild]

21 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

You kind of answered your own question.  The Panthers have tanked or been really bad often since they joined the league.  Since 2015 they have drafted in the top 10 a lot.  If you toss in 2011 when they drafted Huberdeau who they traded to for Tkachuck they have a lot of top end talent on the roster.  In that same time frame Minnesota has drafted lower in each draft and once in the top 10 with Marcon Rossi.  Rossi is great and all but you can't compare him to Tkachuck, Barkov, Lundell, and Ekbald.  They even drafted a first round goalie in that time at number 12 and they traded him away for an elite defenseman.  Add in an organization from top to bottom that wants to win a cup and keep Tampa out of the finals and you have the reason why Florida is the destination now. 

Lundell and Rossi are definitely comparable:  same draft, same position, etc.