Article: What Would Spending $16 Million On Kirill Kaprizov Mean?

[Tony Abbott]

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[0 Stanley Cups]

I agree, I don't have a problem with him at $16M, even if it's seen as an overpay, the Wild cannot afford to lose him.  I'm sure Kirill, just like the rest of us, was annoyed having $12.7, $14.7, and $14.7M of dead cap space, three out of the five seasons he's been here.  In retrospect, it's too bad we didn't sign him to an 8x$10M four years ago, but the Parise/Suter scars were too fresh at the time.

[Scalptrash]

He's played in 74% of games over the last three seasons and only 50% last season. Is he worth $16M at 75% games played? The Wild get zero points from him when injured and that cap space is lost for depth/security.

I do understand how good he is and how much the Wild depend on him (w/o him, they're bottom tier). But this feels more like a butts in seats move rather than championship team building. Gotta drive those ticket sales!

Kaprizov knows he can get just as much, or more, from another team that is more likely to hoist a cup in the near future. He could also benefit greatly from advertising revenue that he can't get in MN. The only advantage the Wild can offer is term and I don't think they are going to get him for eight years anyway. I'm guessing 3-4, if he truly wants to cash in on the significant cap increases coming.

Still 50/50.

[MrCheatachu]

20 minutes ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

I agree, I don't have a problem with him at $16M, even if it's seen as an overpay, the Wild cannot afford to lose him.  I'm sure Kirill, just like the rest of us, was annoyed having $12.7, $14.7, and $14.7M of dead cap space, three out of the five seasons he's been here.  In retrospect, it's too bad we didn't sign him to an 8x$10M four years ago, but the Parise/Suter scars were too fresh at the time.

I thought the story was the wild wanted to lock him down longer, but coming out the covid flat-cap/escrow situation, Kaprizov's team strategically wanted a 5 year term?

That said, giving a player a $9Mx5 years was also seen as a risk on his 55 games played.   That contract wasn't a slam dunk when signed (Drew Doughty's 'Overpaid' comment).

 

[bisopher]

Just like when Kirby Puckett was the highest paid player in MLB (and the first to get >$3MM/yr ) for a short time back in 1989. He was worth the $$$, and his contract was surpassed shortly thereafter.

I expect the same for Kaprizov. He'll be the highest-paid player in hockey (for a while) once he signs, but McDavid (and eventually others) will get higher AAVs soon enough.

And he'll be worth every penny...

[Burnt Toast]

$16M AAV sounds like a solid number. Next, develop your younger players and add available scoring skill at the trade deadline. Gus is next contract up, his quality of play this season is extremely important. Can’t wait for this season to get started! 

[Citizen Strife]

The Wild have been forced to build the team around cheap, defense first, "nothing flashy" players since the buyouts.  The one time a superstar player seems willing and able to sign long-term (or even mid-term through his prime), you want to quibble over money?

One depth player at $3-4m in savings won't make a lick of difference. The only way this means anything is the "chance" any of the young guys are in the Boldy/Faber/Rossi tier.  That or the "chance" a Larkin, Thompson, etc may get pissy and leave their post and the "chance" they'd sign with the Wild.

I'll take my chances on the best player in franchise history instead, thanks.  The "chance" he gets injured again is worth the risk.

 

[Dean]

Sounds like the same old Fletcher strategy. Overpay to get high end players to come here or overpay to stay here. Having the highest paid player doesn’t win cups. Just like Fletcher Billy has no plan on surrounding kappy with the talent needed to be a winner. It’s seems like history repeating itself. A high end player on a mediocre team with bad management. Another wasted decade. 

[Kato AK]

The whole situation feels like the media is driving the negotiations for KK. At the end of last season the rumors were he could get $14mil, mid summer it went up to $15mil and now we're are at $16mil and haven't heard any actual news from either side.

If he wants to be the highest paid player then offer 14.25 or 14.5, you don't need to beat Drai by 2mil for an injury prone WINGER. If he gets signed to something over $14mil, I would take that to mean him and the team don't actually care about winning a cup.

[Burnt Toast]

1 hour ago, Dean said:

Billy has no plan on surrounding kappy with the talent needed to be a winner

I think the Wild are planning already. I’d be shocked if they haven’t been making it known league wide they are serious buyers. It’s not going to be a a second round pick for a player having a down year. It will be a big swing. That’s of course just my opinion but it’s based off of how the Wild have positioned themselves to this point. 

[Scalptrash]

2 hours ago, Dean said:

Sounds like the same old Fletcher strategy. Overpay to get high end players to come here or overpay to stay here. Having the highest paid player doesn’t win cups. Just like Fletcher Billy has no plan on surrounding kappy with the talent needed to be a winner. It’s seems like history repeating itself. A high end player on a mediocre team with bad management. Another wasted decade. 

The owner is the one driving the price up...in the media, no less.

[1Brotherbill]

4 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

He's played in 74% of games over the last three seasons and only 50% last season. Is he worth $16M at 75% games played? The Wild get zero points from him when injured and that cap space is lost for depth/security.

I do understand how good he is and how much the Wild depend on him (w/o him, they're bottom tier).

The Wild had 97 points last year with him playing 50% of the season.  Without him the Wild are not bottom tier.  With him they are a cup contender.  Before he got hurt they were a President Trophy level team.  

[Need4speed99]

3 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

The Wild have been forced to build the team around cheap, defense first, "nothing flashy" players since the buyouts.  The one time a superstar player seems willing and able to sign long-term (or even mid-term through his prime), you want to quibble over money?

One depth player at $3-4m in savings won't make a lick of difference. The only way this means anything is the "chance" any of the young guys are in the Boldy/Faber/Rossi tier.  That or the "chance" a Larkin, Thompson, etc may get pissy and leave their post and the "chance" they'd sign with the Wild.

I'll take my chances on the best player in franchise history instead, thanks.  The "chance" he gets injured again is worth the risk.

 

Except he hasn't been healthy and as you get older that's a big thing. He gets 8 years at 16 that's right back in parise/suter territory and everyone is saying the same thing if he ends up that way. They never had injury history, he does. 

I agree he's elite and they need to make a move but the deal should be 4 or 5 yrs MAX. NOTHING more. He'd be 35/36 at the end of an 8 yr deal and has history of injury... what is taresenko, Stamkos and other elites now aged 35 or older holding up. It's a dumb move to agree to long term. I think 16 is WAY overpay(even for who he is as a player) he isn't McKinnon or McDavid that has completely altered the franchise and taken them to the finals but for 4 yrs they kinda have to, To actually make a move, that I can understand. Longer, it will bite them in the ass.

More is stupid and hamstrings you to mediocrity that really should be synonymous with the wild.

[1Brotherbill]

The Cap is going up every season.  Which means the summer that we just saw will continue for the next few years.  Which also means there is no high price free agent coming to Minnesota without a reason to come to Minnesota.  Top free agents are going to resign with their current clubs for the next few years.  And the ones that leave are going to a team which might have a shot at winning a cup.  Minnesota won't be that destination without Kirill.  

As far as surrounding Kirill with talent.  Four rookies this year will decide the future of the franchise and one much maligned defenseman will also be in that group.  

Wallstedt plays to his potential

Buium plays at a Calder Trophy level

Ohgren shows that he can be a power forward in the league.

Yurov is a Center that could be a top six center going forward.

Jiricek shows that his offensive game over shadows his defensive game.

This team will be a tantalizing free agent destination if a few of the above happen.  If they all happen the 16 million will be forgotten and the Cup will be in Minnesota.  

[Need4speed99]

Also, NOT  SINGLE team would offer him 16 mil for 8 unless they are absolute bottom feeders with no chance. So be realistic in your negotiations. 

[mnfaninnc]

I think the main issue here is what does the salary cap do? 8 x $16m with a rising cap isn't terrible for a superstar. We have the estimates of 113.5m 3 seasons from now. But, what about the 4th? Does it also go up $8-10m? Does the 5th? 

If it does, this will be a good bargain contract when all is said and done. If, however, after the $113.5m year the cap starts going up at a $2-4m pace, then we may have a problem. I suspect the teams' governors know where this is going in 5 years, and have an idea about 8 years. I think a $16m contract is a tell that OCL/Guerin believe the cap is still rising quickly a couple more years out. 

 

[mnfaninnc]

7 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

He's played in 74% of games over the last three seasons and only 50% last season. Is he worth $16M at 75% games played? The Wild get zero points from him when injured and that cap space is lost for depth/security.

Do you think this is a trend, or have the injuries been a little wonky? I think the one last year came from the collision in Edmonton. I think Logan Stanley sitting on him was kind of wonky too.

7 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

He could also benefit greatly from advertising revenue that he can't get in MN.

I really don't think he wants to pursue this. I just think he wants to play hockey and then go chill somewhere outside of media. He's not a player who loves the limelight outside of the rink, IMO. If he was, we would have seen more of him.

[mnfaninnc]

5 hours ago, Dean said:

Sounds like the same old Fletcher strategy. Overpay to get high end players to come here or overpay to stay here. Having the highest paid player doesn’t win cups. Just like Fletcher Billy has no plan on surrounding kappy with the talent needed to be a winner. It’s seems like history repeating itself. A high end player on a mediocre team with bad management. Another wasted decade. 

Dean, you spoke a little truth here but missed the point. The constant here has been OCL being here for both of these plans. In fact, this is the only constant. But, it is his team and he can do what he wants!

[mnfaninnc]

5 hours ago, Kato AK said:

The whole situation feels like the media is driving the negotiations for KK. At the end of last season the rumors were he could get $14mil, mid summer it went up to $15mil and now we're are at $16mil and haven't heard any actual news from either side.

If he wants to be the highest paid player then offer 14.25 or 14.5, you don't need to beat Drai by 2mil for an injury prone WINGER. If he gets signed to something over $14mil, I would take that to mean him and the team don't actually care about winning a cup

This is a good point, but how about this:

Guerin pays the superstar $16m and with capflation this can be explained by these pay models (though I put little stock in them myself). At the current salary pace, and with Rossi locked in for the next 3 years at a very affordable price, we've got some very inexpensive rookies about to join the N in mass. 

If Kaprizov then sets the superstar pay bar, will McDavid then get more? Will Matthews get more? Is his contract an outlier or does every superstar agent use it, and especially use it for a guy who hasn't been completely healthy? Does something like this completely reset contract parameters? I think it might. 

Down the road, we set the parameters, but we can afford this right now with the rookies. Jiricek gets bridged, The Wall has a year left at $2.2m, Yurov starts his ELC, Ohgren has 1 more ELC year left, and Buium has 2 years of ELC left. Lambos, should he make the team gets bridged pretty low. And there could be more coming. 

 

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

Also, NOT  SINGLE team would offer him 16 mil for 8 unless they are absolute bottom feeders with no chance. So be realistic in your negotiations.

I'm pretty certain this time around Shootah wants 8 years. That's the price for 8 years. I'd be very surprised if it were 5 x $16m.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

I think the Wild can get him signed for $15M or less. The contract speculation seems to escalate for each new article, and hopefully we find out the real number soon so the speculation can end.