Article: The Wild May Regret Not Playing the Long Game With Marco Rossi

[Tony Abbott]

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[Will D. Ness]

I'm not so sure I would put Rossi up there with Ek, Boldy and Faber.  

The gamble is higher and the payout just isn't as certain.  The tools aren't quite there.

I do think he will get better though and this could be the perfect contract for him to prove it.  

[Citizen Strife]

The issue is what kind of "star" Rossi becomes.  If he improves even more, (70-75+ pt player, or even PPG), Guerin should be doing cartwheels to get him for $9-10m per year.  I don't know why Guerin hasn't been utterly convinced, but Rossi isn't a Boldy level slam dunk star yet.  He's the next step down.

I am just happy they got SOMETHING done.  It gives the team time for three different things:

1. See if Rossi, Yurov, etc is that elusive elite centerman the system has never had.

2. Wait and see if some team is dumb enough to part with theirs, or at least an elite winger.

3. Save money for Kap, plus a Gus extension or huge payday for Buium if he is anywhere close to his hype describes.  Same holds true if any of the prospects somehow explode.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

A few notes from a long article in The Athletic:

Quote

Rossi had no interest in a contract dispute that would keep him from arriving to training camp on time. If you’ve paid attention to his social media, he has bulked up significantly this offseason with countless hours in the gym and climbing the mountains of Austria. He also has been working on his faceoffs, at one point training with recently elected Hall of Famer Joe Thornton.

Quote

Last winter, he rejected a five-year, $25 million extension offer from the Wild, according to league sources. The comparables were centers like Dylan Strome, who signed for five years and $25 million in 2023, and Anton Lundell. who signed for six years and $30 million in 2024.

Quote

As for how this got across the finish line, Guerin indicated Friday that Rossi’s camp re-engaged with them a month ago, with the player showing his willingness to get a deal done.

The GM said he agrees with Rossi’s belief that he’s a top-six player and indicated he appreciates when a player bets on himself.

“I think he’s just scratching the surface,” Guerin said. “And I think this three-year contract gives him a good runway to turn into the player he can eventually become.”

As for Rossi...

Quote

When asked whether he’s happy where things are right now — considering the summer trade rumblings and his desire to be in a top-six role — Rossi said, “100 percent.”

“I’m excited now that a deal is done,” he said. “I can’t wait to get back on the ice with the guys.”

 

[ArizonaWildFan]

Good article, Tony. Glad to see a deal get done. Time will tell if this was good or bad.

Now what are you and your cohorts going to be writing about?

[SkolWild73]

Good article Tony.  I was one of them that was hoping for a longer term deal around 6.5-7, mainly because of what you mentioned in the article, that it could become a bargain in 4 years.  Time will tell, but at least it is done.

[Scalptrash]

He should have gotten 4x$6M, IMO. What he actually got is less valuable than the original 5x5 offer. He gets 4, then 5, then 6. That only favors the Wild as the cap increases each year, but it limits Rossi's purchasing power and investment opportunities. Some of you may laugh, but that extra million up front could make a huge difference when your career only lasts around 15 years.

He'll be making bottom six money this year so they can easily demote him and will be justified. This is exactly what Rossi didn't want. If he can repeat last year's performance, he'll be in the top 20 bargains of the NHL and easily tradeable, which is Billy's ultimate plan.

[Patrick]

It's a nice contract for the Wild for sure BUT...

Rossi's floor is likely around 50-60 points while playing solid defense. At 7x7 that's fair value and probably good value by the end

Rossi's ceiling is completely unknown. He is a hard worker, coachable and student of the game.  I think he will end up as a 70 point guy while playing excellent defense.  At 7x7 that is INSANE value. 

I'm going to be sad when he is gone in 2.5 years. (Unless BG is fired he will be traded because he isn't resigning here)

[WildNotMild]

I am glad it is done.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rossi traded to a team who saw his value before this contract as being higher, but either couldn’t do an offer sheet because of lack of picks or didn’t want the double whammy of picks and money.  Billy is going to have a difficult time convincing another team that Rossi’s value is 7M+ when he just signed him for 5M AAV.  If he is traded, he will likely be part of a multiple player deal with the Wild not getting his full value.

[Tony Abbott]

6 hours ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

Good article, Tony. Glad to see a deal get done. Time will tell if this was good or bad.

Now what are you and your cohorts going to be writing about?

We don't have to write about anything else. We *get* to write about anything else.

[Tony Abbott]

5 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

He should have gotten 4x$6M, IMO. What he actually got is less valuable than the original 5x5 offer. He gets 4, then 5, then 6. That only favors the Wild as the cap increases each year, but it limits Rossi's purchasing power and investment opportunities. Some of you may laugh, but that extra million up front could make a huge difference when your career only lasts around 15 years.

This is because of qualifying offers. The QO is set based on the player's salary in their last season of their contract.

[Burnt Toast]

I think part of the Wild prioritizing a lower AAV for Rossi is the appeal to KK that we’re entering into “win now”. That’s opposed to a likely payoff in 4 years contract/value wise with Rossi. With other key pieces locked up long term I like the flexibility this contract brings to the team. I’m confident Rossi will be bringing it this year. I’m not sure if it’ll be on “Our Ice” or as a supremely affordable trade piece. Rossi is handling a very difficult part of the NHL game with class. 

[fikifuka]

I think Tony is right in his judgement. Guerin won, Rossi & his agent lost the bargaining. Shortterm. R is playing for cheap the next 3 years. There will be suitors in 2028 to pay him around 10 M AAV. If MIN wants to sign him they will have to pay the 6 M extra he lost, otherwise he will sign somewhere else. I'm pretty sure he will proof his true value in the next 3 years. And of course MIN would be silly to trade him before. 

[mnfaninnc]

On 8/22/2025 at 11:09 PM, WildNotMild said:

Billy is going to have a difficult time convincing another team that Rossi’s value is 7M+ when he just signed him for 5M AAV.

This is not true at all. Rossi is an RFA who had negligible leverage on a contract. The other team will do their analysis and determine what they think his value is. Billy won't have to do anything as far as convincing. He's not trying to drop the player. He is trying to use the player to get an even better one. 

Perhaps Rossi is that better player? He bet on himself. Maybe he gets something long in the $10m range with consistent showings of 70+ pts? We can only hope for that.

[mnfaninnc]

I like the deal, think it's fair for both sides. I put little stock in the algorithm the estimate sites put up. I think it was riskier for Guerin to sign Rossi longterm, probably riskier than Faber, Kaprizov, and Boldy. He wants more from Rossi and a bridge deal is the way to get it. 

Which gets us to this point. What was Rossi really worth on a longterm deal? I disagree wholeheartedly with the 7 x $7m. I do think this is a time to let the cap grow and bridge just about everyone we can when the time comes, let the dust settle and find out what the capflation prices are. Is it done off of cap %? Is it done off of analytic estimates? Is it done by throwing darts at a dartboard? I don't know, but I do know that the cap skyrocketing is only part of a cycle and won't keep going up that quickly forever.

What is so great about a bridge deal? If you look at player's age, you get this: 

If a player doesn't take the college route, a normal ELC happens when they're 20, younger if they make the N and stick in their teens. Some players, Europeans can actually start that clock a little later if they stay in their home country until they're ready. 3 years in, they are 23. Depending on NHL time of service, they can get bridged until 27, but you want them coming off at 26. I would assume year 20 is at least in the A.

That's 4 years of bridges. But, you don't want a bridge to expire when they are becoming an UFA, you want a year left so you can negotiate a longterm deal with them, or trade them out. This is the last season we see 8 year deals, but if you take 7 years from age 26, the player is in his age 33 year. Likely that year is a 3 year extension if he's holding up ok. Bridging gives the player 1 huge payday opportunity for the really good players.

As a hockey team, you are not worried about how a player feels about this, or that he didn't get 2 paydays. You worry about your bottom line, and cap management. Some players will plateau during the bridge and not get much better. Others will get injured and not perform as well. It is in the best interest of the Wild to use the bridge regardless of how the rest of the league does it. It also makes sense to present the bridge deal before the player goes home for the summer of his RFA year. 

I projected this bridge deal to be 2 x $4.5m. $3.5m in year 1, $5.5m in year 2. Going $4, 5, 6m is about the same but actually better. As Tony said, the $6m is all about the QO at the end of the deal. Think of the QO as a way to save the rights and the floor of the next negotiation. 

I also recommended bridges for Boldy and Faber. Kaprizov, I thought, was old enough to just go straight to the big deal. Boldy's deal looks like it will work out and I'd say the same for Faber's. But, we all saw what happened with Dumba, and that could happen to any player, and that's why the longterm big deal is a risk. 

Tony started the article off by saying we might wish we had done a longterm deal instead. The only way this works is with 20/20 hindsight. Yes, you may regret if a bit, but at the same time, if you are more risk averse as a GM, that is the path you take. There still isn't much of a risk of getting offersheeted in this league. The only time it works is when a GM is in a cap pickle. The vast majority of the time, it may cause some pain, but it will get matched, and GMs will have prepared a defense for such a thing. How do you stop from the offersheet speculation? You make sure to bridge these guys before July 1. If they don't want to take it, you plan a defense in case there is one, or, with most GMs, they will approach you about a trade before they spring the offersheet on you. 

If anyone was paying attention, this is exactly what happened between Carolina and NYR with K. Miller. Carolina had the offersheet hammer ready to go, but they worked out a deal when NYR caught wind that Carolina was interested in him. The deal was slightly less than an offersheet, but it was a trade 1st. Carolina got to put up a player instead of picks and lottery protect their 1st. 

[1Brotherbill]

I might turn into a bad decision but right now his 5 million contract is exactly what he has earned.  He was a ghost for the last half of the season last year.  It was a difficult season so it might not be him, yet it could be a sign that he can't maintain his effort for 82 plus games.   If he plays well the next contract might be humungous but right now it might just be what he is worth.