What are the odds that Wallstedt has a good career?

[SkolWild73]

Since the Wild's inception back in 2001, it feels like we have been looking for that number goaltender to help lead us not only to playoff success, but also to the Stanely Cup.  The only goalie of the 22 goalies that have played in a game that has played longer than 6 years for us is Niklas Backstrom from 2017-2015.  Backstrom and Devan Dubnyk are the only goalies that have played more than 300 games for the Wild.  Gus and Fleury rank 6th and 7th in games played. 

Since it is a slow time for hockey, I decided to look back at all goaltenders that have been taken in the first 32 picks (corresponding to a first round pick now that there are 32 teams) since the 2000 draft and see what type of success they have had in the NHL to see what the odds are that Wallstedt will be that long term solution. From 2000-2012 there were 32 goalies selected in the top 32.  Of these 32 goalies, only 13 played in more than 300 games or 40.6%.  15 played in less than 100 games, or 47%.  Of those 15, 8 played in less than 10 games in their career or 25%.  Based off of these goaltenders, it would seem the odds are better that Wallstedt will become a bust than a long term solution as a number 1 goaltender.  But there is hope.

Since 2012, only 5 goalies were taken in the first round prior to Wallstedt getting selected in 2021.  Of those 5, 4 are projected to be their teams starter next year, Oettinger (2017) for Dallas, Knight (2019) for the Chicago, Askarov (2020) for San Jose, and Cossa (2021) for Detroit.

Hopefully Wallstedt will become one of the franchise goalies that were taken in the first round like Fleury, Price, Rask and Vasilevsky and not one of the 15 that doesn't even play in 100 games.  

Edited 1 hour ago by SkolWild73