Article: What Can We Learn From Minnesota's Most Hyped Prospects Who Didn't Pan Out?

[Luke Sims]

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[Patrick]

All organizations hype their prospects.  Its part of the marketing.  Even when they don't deserve hype.  Like everyone of the guys on this list. 

When people outside of the organization hype the prospects then you may have something.  

[0 Stanley Cups]

I know it's the dog days of summer for hockey fans, but just one or two typos in this article😁

Kaprizov’s defensive metrics were solid with the Wild, but he was one of the worst offensive players in the NHL.

At 6’6”, 321 lbs., Greenway is a massive addition to any forward group.

[MrCheatachu]

Gonna need a proofreader on this article:

Quote

Kaprizov’s defensive metrics were solid with the Wild, but he was one of the worst offensive players in the NHL.

Quote

At 6’6”, 321 lbs., Greenway is a massive addition to any forward group.

 

[Scalptrash]

I think Khusnutdinov  was handled very poorly by the Wild. They threw him to the wolves when he should have been sent to Iowa for at least a year to get acclimated to North American hockey. Plus they buried him on the fourth line. It was like sending a Ferrari to Home Depot to pick up plywood. He has shown promise in Boston when elevated.

I think the jury is still out on this one and the Wild may regret giving him away for nothing. That was another head scratcher by Guerin. I do get what he was trying to accomplish, but he either should've listened to his scouts or done more homework. Billy got fleeced again.

Edited August 7 by Scalptrash

[SkolWild73]

Maybe I look at draft picks in the NHL differently than most, but I wouldn't consider any of these guys "busts", besides maybe Kunin.

Kunin was picked 15th.  He has played 434 games and has 142 points.  Definitely not great.  But of the 60 15th overall picks through 2023, only 20 have played in 300+ games and 22 reached 100+ points.  Kunin will probably get to 500 games this year, and only 16 have done that.  Granted he didn't turn into Joe Sakic, Al McInnis or Mike Bossy, who were all 15th picks, but he did better than the majority.

Greenway and Khusnutdinov were both selected in the second round.  Greenway has played 435 games and has 159 points, and Khus has played in 91 games already.  Of players drafted in the second round, only 27% play in 300+ games and only 17% play in 500+.  As far as points go, 21% get to 100+ and 10% get to 300+.

Third round picks like Beckham have even longer odds.  About half even play in 1 game, 28% play in 100+ and 17% play in 300+.

I could be wrong, but I don't think the expectation for any of these guys amongst the "prospect pool experts", besides maybe Kunin, was to be anything more than bottom 6 players.

I think the main problem that we have as fans is we expect every one of our prospects to hit and it just isn't reality.  With the 4 skaters we have this year, I would be happy if 2 of them become top pair players, and the other two become bottom pair players and the Wall becomes a capable NHL goalie.  Anything more than that would be a huge win.

 

[MrCheatachu]

47 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

Greenway and Khusnutdinov were both selected in the second round.  Greenway has played 435 games and has 159 points, and Khus has played in 91 games already.  Of players drafted in the second round, only 27% play in 300+ games and only 17% play in 500+.  As far as points go, 21% get to 100+ and 10% get to 300+.

While Greener got flack here for being a lazy slob who only ate pizza, he seems to be doing well out in Buffalo, might not have figured out his offensive side of the puck, but has been a key guy on the penalty kill:

Sounds like he was injured for a stretch last season, but also is a well liked player in their locker room.

https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/buffalo-sabres-jordan-greenway-season-recap-season-in-review-injury

It's odd to see him mentioned along side guys like Addison, who have failed to stick in the NHL. 

 

[bisopher]

For Addison, the lesson is if you can't play defense well enough in the AHL to be in the first or second pairing, you're not going to be able to handle NHL forwards.

[1Brotherbill]

Marat is fast, that is about all he showed in a majority of the season.  When in Boston he showed he could score two goals in two games and everyone lost their minds.  Didn't do anything else the rest of the season and is probably going to be a career AHL player.  But the fans in Minnesota will always say that Guerin gave him away for garbage.  

The prospect pool is deep and full of players that will never play in St. Paul.  If you look at the list of prospect rankings the teams around Minnesota are all teams that will be in line for the 1st overall pick this year and the coming years.  What that tells me is the Wild drafts well for a playoff team.  Yet if you have assets that sit on the shelf and are never used do you actually have a wealth?

Everyone is all in on Hiedt, reality is that he is Rossi 2.0.  Under sized center.  People will say, yes Rossi is great he scored 60 points last year.  Yep great numbers, but he is a career 45% face off guy.  Pretty much his number one job he is not very good at it.  Also, he is supposed to be net front presence.  When the goalie can easily look over and around you it isn't ideal.  Hiedt is exactly the same.  

Carson Lambos drafted in the first round 26th overall.  Seems like he has been in the system for a decade.  Has not played in St. Paul.  Has struggled to be a 0 in the plus minus category in Iowa and has shown little to no offensive skill.  Showed so little in Iowa that the Wild traded a lot to get Jiricek.  

The list goes on.  Reality is that the Wild need to trade a few of these prospects for established NHL players before the league sees how bad the prospect pool Minnesota has. 

[Citizen Strife]

That picture makes it look like Addison shit himself.

[mnhockeyfan03]

Lesson of these prospects are use these guys as trade chips to better the team and also trading off some of our old deadweight on the team.  Spurgeon, Brodin, Hartman, Zucc, Trenin, Foligno, Rossi.  Need a shakeup to be contenders so let’s start it.  These guys won’t get it done.  Pretty soon will be taken over by Utah, St. Louis if things don’t change

[Sam]

It looks like Calen Addison has pubic hair on his face. I think we let go of Marat too soon, I think he has more scoring than what he has shown so far. I’m excited to see the newcomers this year.

[SkolWild73]

11 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

Lesson of these prospects are use these guys as trade chips to better the team and also trading off some of our old deadweight on the team.  Spurgeon, Brodin, Hartman, Zucc, Trenin, Foligno, Rossi.  Need a shakeup to be contenders so let’s start it.  These guys won’t get it done.  Pretty soon will be taken over by Utah, St. Louis if things don’t change

I get you want to trade some players and shake it up, but over the last year you have pretty said we should trade every single member of this team.  The only two I do not remember you wanting to trade are Ek and Middleton.  

[mnhockeyfan03]

23 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I get you want to trade some players and shake it up, but over the last year you have pretty said we should trade every single member of this team.  The only two I do not remember you wanting to trade are Ek and Middleton.  

Yes this team needs help and every member of the team should be made available for the right price to make the team better.  Sick of the 25 years of mediocrity.  Start taking chances to get better.  If they don’t work I can deal with that as you tried.  If not we are always going to be stuck in the middle and that sucks.  Go big or stay home. 

[FredJohnson]

6 hours ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

At 6’6”, 321 lbs., Greenway is a massive addition to any forward 

 

[Scalptrash]

11 hours ago, FredJohnson said:

 

I sat behind Jordan's brother J.D. on a flight from Buffalo to Minneapolis last October. I thought it was Jordan at first, but then I thought WTH is he doing on this flight? (honestly, my very first thought was, did the Wild just trade to bring him back?) Super nice, humble guy, and he didn't even recline his seat! 6'6" 212 lbs. I could tell he was very uncomfortable the whole flight because he didn't fit.

[Scalptrash]

12 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

Marat is fast, that is about all he showed in a majority of the season.  When in Boston he showed he could score two goals in two games and everyone lost their minds.  Didn't do anything else the rest of the season and is probably going to be a career AHL player.  But the fans in Minnesota will always say that Guerin gave him away for garbage.

He was 22 years old when traded, and that was after one year of being forced into a role and a system he's never played before. It will be a couple of years to find out what his real potential is. He should still spend a year in the AHL, in an elevated role.

Considering Billy gave him, Lauko and a 6th round draft pick away for Brazeau, he/they were traded for garbage.

[Citizen Strife]

Khusnutdinov was fast, Lauko was fast.  Did either of them do anything else to stand out?  There's a lot of depth that needs to be shipped out to get people to improve.

Even if you got rid of Mojo and didn't get Sturm or Tarasenko, you still have to contend with Ohgren and Yurov fighting for 3rd/4th line duty.  At least Mojo potted 30 points.  Khusnutdinov offered squat for offense. 

I bring up the Donato thing over and over.  He got good in an elevated role when he got near 30.  I sure as hell wouldn't have kept him the 8 or so years it took to get there.  Khusnutdinov may succeed elsewhere, but he wasn't doing it here.  He wasn't a Rossi replacement and probably will never be.  He wasn't good enough to beat out a motivated Gaudreau.  

Would be nice if people would let it go.

Edited August 8 by Citizen Strife

[Will D. Ness]

53 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

At least Mojo potted 30 points. 

Isn't that actually a negative considering he was on the 2nd line?

[Willy the poor boy]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

Khusnutdinov was fast, Lauko was fast.  Did either of them do anything else to stand out?  There's a lot of depth that needs to be shipped out to get people to improve.

Even if you got rid of Mojo and didn't get Sturm or Tarasenko, you still have to contend with Ohgren and Yurov fighting for 3rd/4th line duty.  At least Mojo potted 30 points.  Khusnutdinov offered squat for offense. 

I bring up the Donato thing over and over.  He got good in an elevated role when he got near 30.  I sure as hell wouldn't have kept him the 8 or so years it took to get there.  Khusnutdinov may succeed elsewhere, but he wasn't doing it here.  He wasn't a Rossi replacement and probably will never be.  He wasn't good enough to beat out a motivated Gaudreau.  

Would be nice if people would let it go.

I agree, they just should have gotten more for him.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

Would be nice if people would let it go.

I agree with your points in your post except this one.  Khuz was the first of the bill/judd prospects.  He arrived and went right into the NHL.  Then after one year at 22 yo he was discarded + assets for a telephone pole that was DOA.  WTF?

I get that you're going to become tired of hearing about it, but the reality is we can now begin judging bill & judd's work.  In any universe we'd have been better off keeping Khuz (and Lauko) and develop the player, than to flush them for literally nothing after one season.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

15 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

Also, he is supposed to be net front presence

Rossi scored all 20 of his goals this year from between the dots and no further out than the edge of the circles. His average range from the net on goals was 13.3ft. I would say that is a net front presence or at the very least a very good person to have in close.

[Citizen Strife]

2 hours ago, Will D. Ness said:

Isn't that actually a negative considering he was on the 2nd line?

Yes, but saying Khusnutdinov should have been there instead over say Hartman, Foligno, etc is also asking for trouble.

[NoJoSux]

I think the more important lesson related to this subject is all the good players that have emerged who Brackett and Guerin didn't pick. In later rounds too. 

To me that's the part that hurts or that has shown where other teams do really well by comparison. Some of it is simply good fortune, but if you asked me, MN has selected guys who later don't fit, develop, or are traded away. To me, that's a bigger issue. 

Building up assets while signing and maintaining a roster of vets is another semi-contradiction during a cap-penalty period because you can't inject youth into a veteran roster because those slots are full. You can't afford to trade assets for players you can't afford to pay. In many ways, the Wild have been stuck between what they can and can't do. They can draft same as other teams but can't move prospects or acquire upgrades. Players they select are so much more important and development too. 

On one hand, I understand the dilemma but being halfway committed to somewhat opposite objectives hasn't paid great dividends so far. Ogie, Yurov, Wallstedt, Jiricek, AND Buium would need to begin contributing for real so the NoJos or Bogos to be relegated. Otherwise, what are we waiting for on so many prospects while others like Knies, Blake, Johnston, and others are highly successful. MN could have had them, but we got Lambos, Peart, Bankier, and others.

It's about time the Wild gets some results or needs to trade some guys. Mitchell Chaffee is a good example of a player MN had and lost to TB where he's having success. Bringing Sturm back is a similar admission of poor decisions.  

[SkolWild73]

I see a few talking about Khus and Lauko here in the trade for Braz.  Although it does not appear to be a great trade, the purpose of it was to get a bigger body for the playoffs and the line Braz was on performed fairly well in their limited time.

Also, Lauko isn't even in the league anymore as he signed a 3-year deal to play in the Czeck Extraliga league.  Khus may end up being something, but was there really room for him this year?  If we hadn't resigned Nojo, he was still probably the 13th forward, and that is not including Vinnie.  I would rather see what Ohgren is able to do with playing time.