Article: Will Kaprizov's Injury History Turn His New Contract Into An Albatross?

[Bekki Antonelli]

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[ArizonaWildFan]

Nice article, Bekki. 

[Scalptrash]

I firmly believe that the injury he sustained from Logan Stanley squishing him did permanent damage. He is now very injury prone and has only played in about 50% of games since. A huge, long term contract is risky for the Wild. Is he as good or better than Draisaitl or McDavid? Hard to know when he misses significant time every season due to injury. He is also at the age where most NHL players peak, so he's not going to get better, you can only hope that he sustains his output. If he can play 75+ games he will obviously have more points, but that doesn't mean he's gotten better.

I have a very unpopular opinion around here about the Wild trading him (cue CS's confusion). He will never be worth more than right now and the Wild could potentially obtain two top six forwards who are younger, bigger, cheaper, and could easily replace Kaprizov's lost points. Remember, he only scored 56 points last season, which two top six forwards could easily surpass. Heck, Rossi did by himself. It would make the team much deeper and less dependant on one player. It will also set them up better for a deeper run in the playoffs.

Of course he is capable of much more and, when healthy, he is top 10 in the NHL. The problem is, he can't stay healthy anymore. If the Wild gamble on him and lose, it will set them back for years....again.

[Patrick]

Three considerations

1) Is the Wild medical staff incompetent or are they being pressured by BG to let players play hurt? He is grossly infatuated with grit.  I think its BG since the Wild didn't have these issues prior to him.  The amount of games missed to injury is absolutely insane the last three years.

2) Hynes needs to go.  He overplayed Faber and KK(before he got hurt) last year. I don't think its coincidence that Faber's play declined and KK got injured. The workload was too high.

3) Will the Wild really pay KK 15 million? It seems insane.  He isn't even close to Draisaitl and plays wing.  Marner and Rantanen are at the same level and both signed for 12....

-Don't bother cherry picking KK's most productive games and claiming he is 2nd only to McDavid.  He isn't. There are YEARS of stats showing what he is. He is a top 5 WING in the NHL. Nothing more, nothing less.

[MNCountryLife]

Kirill is one of the best in the league.  His value to the team is arguably one of the highest in the league.  You try and keep him.  If the cap keeps jumping the contract should be fine.  

[Pewterschmidt]

24 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

Wild could potentially obtain two top six forwards who are younger, bigger, cheaper

Think Charlie Coyle +Nino niedereiter 

can’t replace 97 with volume

[Scalptrash]

4 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Think Charlie Coyle +Nino niedereiter 

can’t replace 97 with volume

Um, no. Hopefully Billy could get more than that, but you never know with Billy. I was thinking something more like Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. Obviously that's a stretch, but a blockbuster like that.

[SkolWild73]

51 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

I firmly believe that the injury he sustained from Logan Stanley squishing him did permanent damage. He is now very injury prone and has only played in about 50% of games since. A huge, long term contract is risky for the Wild

Very valid concern I think a lot of us share.  Prior to Stanley landing on him, he had played in 201 out of 203 games.  He did only miss 7 games in 2023/24.  It would be a risk sure, but there are players that have had significant injuries that have come back to be relatively healthy.

Nikita Kucherov missed an entire regular season in 20/21 and almost half of 21/22 and has only missed 5 games in the last 3 years total.

Crosby missed 41 games in 2010/2011 and 61 in 2011/2012 due to concussion issues.  He also had a hernia in 19/20 where he missed two months.  He has only missed 15 games in the last 5 years since.

Let's hope Kap is more like these players. 

Edited 23 hours ago by SkolWild73

[SkolWild73]

35 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Will the Wild really pay KK 15 million? It seems insane.  He isn't even close to Draisaitl and plays wing.  Marner and Rantanen are at the same level and both signed for 12....

I agree it is a lot to pay but I think it comes down to if Kap stays healthy.  If he does, his career number in points per game played is up there with the best in the game.  This is where the top 10 active players land in points per game with at least 500 career points and where they rank all time.

McDavid: 1.520 (3rd)

Crosby: 1.248 (9th)

Kucherov: 1.238 (12th)

Draisaitl: 1.210 (13th)

Kap: 1.210 (Kap has 386 points in 319 games)

MacKinnon: 1.167 (18th)

Panarin: 1.157 (20th)

Matthews: 1.156 (21st)

Marner: 1.128 (24th)

Malkin: 1.110 (30th)

The next 5 are Malkin, Pastrnak, Ovechkin, Rantanen and Kane

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, Scalptrash said:

Of course he is capable of much more and, when healthy, he is top 10 in the NHL. The problem is, he can't stay healthy anymore. If the Wild gamble on him and lose, it will set them back for years....again.

And it the Wild gamble on 2 players of lesser talent, and at least one of them can't stay healthy, then the Wild are also losing. It's a gamble either way, but not a lot of top teams try to trade their #1 players in their 20s.

The Wild's record when Kaprizov is healthy tends to be quite good. Would something like Seth Jarvis and Svechnikov drive more winning?

I imagine if the Wild thought the injuries were chronic in nature, they might consider that path, but I don't think there's much chance of a trade as long as Kaprizov is willing to sign an extension with the Wild.

[SkolWild73]

Couldn’t edit last post.  Supposed to say last 4 and exclude malkin since he was 10th

[raithis]

1 hour ago, Patrick said:

Three considerations

1) Is the Wild medical staff incompetent or are they being pressured by BG to let players play hurt? He is grossly infatuated with grit.  I think its BG since the Wild didn't have these issues prior to him.  The amount of games missed to injury is absolutely insane the last three years.

2) Hynes needs to go.  He overplayed Faber and KK(before he got hurt) last year. I don't think its coincidence that Faber's play declined and KK got injured. The workload was too high.

3) Will the Wild really pay KK 15 million? It seems insane.  He isn't even close to Draisaitl and plays wing.  Marner and Rantanen are at the same level and both signed for 12....

-Don't bother cherry picking KK's most productive games and claiming he is 2nd only to McDavid.  He isn't. There are YEARS of stats showing what he is. He is a top 5 WING in the NHL. Nothing more, nothing less.

Regarding #1:  it may also be that the players wanted to come back too soon.  Ek really did seem to think he could make a go of it, but then came back to reality real quick.  This year, when players tried to push to come back earlier, they weren't allowed to.  They held multiple players back until they were close to 100%.

Regarding 2:  Most of that was due to injuries to other players and not having a very deep team due to the cap penalties.  No way Faber plays that much if Spurgeon and Brodin were healthy all year.  A deeper team helps both players.

 

[Citizen Strife]

It's a risk the Wild have no choice but to take.

[Dean]

I tend to agree with scalptrash . I love kappy . He’s makes the wild worth watching along with ek. However  with the age an injuries scalptrash might be on to something. I want to win the cup not reg season games. It seems by the time playoffs roll around kappy and ek can only last a few games before injuries  or the abuse of playoffs take a toll . We don’t have the depth to replace them or are we Florida/ Vegas . Teams that can put a 15 mil player on IR and go get a replacement till playoffs. Then playoffs time they are 15 mil over cap. Minnesota can’t do that. We can’t get anyone to come here . So maybe trading kappy to get controlled players that combine to produce his points is a good thing.  Kappy is what 28. The wild haven’t surrounded with anything . They aren’t close to beating a team like Florida. The kids haven’t proven anything and are years away from actually doing anything playoff wise. By that time kappys age , injuries and salary will probably hold us back . For Billy that’s a good thing. He’s got a new excuse for 8 years. Well if only it wasn’t for injuries we’d be great. Kappy was hart candidate for 1st week of season isn’t that great even though he sat out rest of season with injuries. Lots of moral victories and fantasies about what if kappy was healthy. 
   I don’t want to trade hm but Billy hasn’t built anything around him that’s going to come to fruition any time soon.  This team can’t win a playoff round because they are gassed out an Injured along with not talented enough. To think kappy an Ek could actually make it 4 rounds to win a cup is a fantasy because there history says otherwise. Scalptrash is probably right going with depth for Minnesota might be better than broken stars on IR 

[Up North Guy]

4 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

I firmly believe that the injury he sustained from Logan Stanley squishing him did permanent damage. He is now very injury prone and has only played in about 50% of games since. A huge, long term contract is risky for the Wild. Is he as good or better than Draisaitl or McDavid? Hard to know when he misses significant time every season due to injury. He is also at the age where most NHL players peak, so he's not going to get better, you can only hope that he sustains his output. If he can play 75+ games he will obviously have more points, but that doesn't mean he's gotten better.

I have a very unpopular opinion around here about the Wild trading him (cue CS's confusion). He will never be worth more than right now and the Wild could potentially obtain two top six forwards who are younger, bigger, cheaper, and could easily replace Kaprizov's lost points. Remember, he only scored 56 points last season, which two top six forwards could easily surpass. Heck, Rossi did by himself. It would make the team much deeper and less dependant on one player. It will also set them up better for a deeper run in the playoffs.

Of course he is capable of much more and, when healthy, he is top 10 in the NHL. The problem is, he can't stay healthy anymore. If the Wild gamble on him and lose, it will set them back for years....again.

KK has a no move clause. Good luck moving him unless he wants to move and he would pick the team. With that the return is not going to be what we want.

[Dis-allowed display name]

The bigger issue is Kaprizov’s injury history, which continues to accumulate. In the 2022-23 season, Logan Stanley fell on Kaprizov, injuring his leg. 

I would never call what he did "falling" on Kaprisov.  "Gooning" perhaps, as it was entirely intentional.  I'd be fine if we took cheap shots at Stanley until Kap's next contract runs out.

[MacGyver]

I'm sure Kaprizov is well aware of his injury status and how it could shorten or end his career.  Could be a reason he may want to go to a team much closer to winning a Cup. He could go to a Eastern no check team like Carolina and be closer to raising the Cup and his career could be longer. The Western conference is much more of a meat grinder.

All the Wild can do is sell him hope like they do to the fans every year. We hope Yurov is what we think he is, we hope Rossi is what we thought he was. Oh wait he is but we still don't like him. The Wild have locked themselves into over paying him and Kaprizov's agent will take every last dime he can if Kaprizov wants to stay. I have said before I see this as being very much like the Twins and Joe Mauer situation. Sign him or else. Mauer never got the Twins anywhere and he was stricken with the terrible leg weakness syndrome and spent a lot of time at home. Twins never got their moneys worth from him.

[TCMooch]

Just a reminder that anybody comparing $15M a year to previous contracts to show KK’s contract is overpaid needs to consider growing cap hit and in a year or two or when top players sign next contact it will show to probably be way more reasonable

[1Brotherbill]

A lot of people are saying that 15 Million is to much for someone like Kirill.  15 Million in a few years will be the league average for someone like Kirill.  That is going to be a fact.  Celebrini, Bedard, McKenna, insert random star, will all be making this or more. Kirill was on pace for 150 points last year.

The fact he was injured in the past should not dictate his future.  He could play the next 8 years at 82 games each season, and he could also miss a handful of games each year do to minor injuries.  He could also be injured and not play much past December next year.  Which would be a very difficult pill to swallow.  

As far as his game play and him being a target.  If he signs this contract he will get calls and be protected by the NHL.  You don't let the top paid player in the NHL get folded over by Logan Stanley without serious repercussions.  He is a good looking dude and is marketed by the NHL.  They will protect him as best as they can.  

 

[mnhockeyfan03]

If you can trade Kirill for Thompson and Tuch the team is better at the same cap hit.  That’s what they should be comparing to.  Anything over 4x$12mm is an overpay.  If he gets $15-16mm this team is in more trouble and Billy is a fool. If he trades him he will have heat but at least he can explain he is making the team better.  Kap has an injury history and not wirth the money. 

[goenzoy]

7 hours ago, TCMooch said:

Just a reminder that anybody comparing $15M a year to previous contracts to show KK’s contract is overpaid needs to consider growing cap hit and in a year or two or when top players sign next contact it will show to probably be way more reasonable

But it is not the contract or money alone 

Kaprisov also need players to play with so I doubt that 8 year extension 

will be signed anytime soon .Rossi not having a contract before 1st of December and pre season injury of Eriksson Ek and he would not even have a center to play with with NHL games .

Yurov with  KHL experience only

[Citizen Strife]

6 hours ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

If you can trade Kirill for Thompson and Tuch the team is better at the same cap hit.  That’s what they should be comparing to.  Anything over 4x$12mm is an overpay.  If he gets $15-16mm this team is in more trouble and Billy is a fool. If he trades him he will have heat but at least he can explain he is making the team better.  Kap has an injury history and not wirth the money. 

1. Kap would never voluntarily go to Buffalo.

2. Even if he did, they would trade near everyone else on the roster, cause Buffalo would load up a Kap and Thompson line.  The Wild would be lucky to get futures and maybe Norris or something dumb.  Talk about injury riddled players.

3. Kap is basically a god on skates in Minnesota.  It would be his and only his team to be built around for a decade (regardless of the injury risk).  Nearly every other team in the league would be like, "Ooh, shiny star for a few years.". Minnesota had Gaborik, Parise, Fiala, and maybe Boldy as a tier below what Kap has done.  Kap probably means just as much to the Wild as a money making business as he does a player.