Article: NHL Insider Confident No One Will Offer Sheet Marco Rossi

[Thomas Williams]

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[Imyourhuckleberry]

Frank Seravalli saying what a number of us here have been saying for weeks. Edmonton losing a couple of guys last year doesn't change the fact that it's rare for offer sheets to get signed. That was a unique situation where they were really up against the cap and the St. Louis GM didn't care for the Edmonton GM, so felt inclined to take advantage of the situation. Also, the NHL does not seem to place the market for Rossi at $7M+, which is where teams would need to go in order for the Wild to consider not matching the offer.

[Pewterschmidt]

So far bill seems to be managing this situation perfectly.  Hasn't overpaid Rossi and apparently has a good sense for his market value around the league.  If we can get Rossi on a reasonable, short term bridge deal that keeps him tradeable down the road, then bill is managing the asset correctly.

#rarebillcompliment

[Scalptrash]

The teams that would normally be interested will be tanking for a chance of getting McKenna (i.e. Chicago). They don't want to get better and they want to hold onto their assets for flexibility. Just a bad year in general to be Rossi.

He should hold out and demand a trade for the way the Wild have treated him.

[mnfaninnc]

17 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

He should hold out and demand a trade for the way the Wild have treated him.

What good would this do him? There are 31 other GMs around the league. Most, and by most I mean heavily skewed to this opinion, GMs are already skeptical of paying a short guy a lot of money. They equate short with small and that is not the case with Rossi. 

Shooter let it be known that Rossi could be had. Last season and this season, no serious offers have come in matching his talent. Shooter has done well to not bite on an inferior offer and just play him again. 

Demanding a trade, even publicly, could fall on deaf ears. Holding out is something that seals the deal for the other GMs (we don't want that attitude in our locker room). The biggest issue here is that Rossi has no other avenue in which to leverage the negotiating table. It's offersheet or bust. Perhaps other GMs have a number and are waiting for the Wild to have less cap space than that number. I believe that number is closer to $5m than $7m. It will be matched immediately here unless we acquire, say, a Panarin in the offseason and have no money to defend against an offersheet. 

Seravalli's number of a successful offersheet for Rossi was $9.5-10m. That's a serious overpay, and Rossi might hit that value in year 4 of a 5 year deal. This is not good for him. I suspect that number is $7.03m, or, Mason McTavish. 

Apparently, McTavish's beef is role. He doesn't see the Ducks keeping him in the top 6 center role. He'd be perfect here in that role. So we've got 1 player worried about his role, and another player worried more about the size and length of his next contract. The Ducks have plenty of cap. Would they be willing to pay Rossi? I think the actual fit of a deal between these 2 clubs is probably a win-win for both teams. I also think Verbeek and Guerin have a relationship since their playing days and could easily do this. 

[0 Stanley Cups]

We shouldn't want to trade Rossi down the road, we should want to keep him on the team, otherwise why did BG draft him at 9th knowing his size, draft someone else, especially a center.  Yurov is our only other legit center prospect and he's a total question mark right now.

Seven years and BG still can't address the lack of center depth.  Patience and confidence is running thin with BG.  Rossi shouldn't sign more than a 2 year deal.

[MrCheatachu]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

So far bill seems to be managing this situation perfectly.

Hey Pea-Shooter, it appears that someone has hacked your account...

[Scalptrash]

8 minutes ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

We shouldn't want to trade Rossi down the road, we should want to keep him on the team, otherwise why did BG draft him at 9th knowing his size, draft someone else, especially a center.  Yurov is our only other legit center prospect and he's a total question mark right now.

Seven years and BG still can't address the lack of center depth.  Patience and confidence is running thin with BG.  Rossi shouldn't sign more than a 2 year deal.

They draft best available with every pick, if for nothing else than trade assets. They are still drafting small players every draft. The size argument has gotten completely blown out of proportion. Kirill and Zuccarello are the same size as Rossi and nobody says they are too small. Granted, you want your centers to be bigger than smaller, but there have been several successful centers in the NHL that are Rossi's size.

You could argue that weight and strength are more important than height. A lower center of gravity is a benefit. These are not quarterbacks that can't see over their linemen!

[Pewterschmidt]

20 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

Hey Pea-Shooter, it appears that someone has hacked your account...

It was a moment of weakness. It won't happen again. 

[Rutters91]

4 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

The teams that would normally be interested will be tanking for a chance of getting McKenna (i.e. Chicago). They don't want to get better and they want to hold onto their assets for flexibility. Just a bad year in general to be Rossi.

He should hold out and demand a trade for the way the Wild have treated him.

Id be very surprised if Rossi holds out. For starters thats not his character and a hold out would be just as bad for him as it would be the team.

[Pablo]

Rossi has an issue. All GMs are close to the cap and they wont be held hostage to one player that is pigeonholed early in his career. Rossi’s problem is of his own making. 

[Citizen Strife]

He and his agent probably have to deal with it.  Marco is a good player but not yet the irreplaceable piece the team cannot live without.  Those players are Kap, Ek, Boldy, Faber, and Brodin/Spurgeon (for a couple more years anyway).  I'm also starting to lean towards keeping Gus over Rossi if money gets tight.

There is reason to be annoyed for both sides: Rossi has proven a lot, but he is at best a complementary star on a good team who gets opportunistic offense.

There's no shame in that, but until he either gets 70-80 points like Boldy or finds an Ek level gear defensively, there's reasons to quib Le about handing out star money to a fringe star.

 

Edited 19 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[MrCheatachu]

7 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I'm also starting to lean towards keeping Gus over Rossi if money gets tight.

Imagine traveling back in time to last summer and making that statement.

[Willy the poor boy]

25 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

He and his agent probably have to deal with it.  Marco is a good player but not yet the irreplaceable piece the team cannot live without.  Those players are Kap, Ek, Boldy, Faber, and Brodin/Spurgeon (for a couple more years anyway).  I'm also starting to lean towards keeping Gus over Rossi if money gets tight.

There is reason to be annoyed for both sides: Rossi has proven a lot, but he is at best a complementary star on a good team who gets opportunistic offense.

There's no shame in that, but until he either gets 70-80 points like Boldy or finds an Ek level gear defensively, there's reasons to quib Le about handing out star money to a fringe star.

 

 

18 minutes ago, MrCheatachu said:

Imagine traveling back in time to last summer and making that statement.

Until last year or two most everyone wanted to trade Boldy also... Fans get entirely to antsy. They wanted to get rid Sturm then, and now it's great to have him back on the team, and 1 or 2 months into the season they'll want to trade him for one of the  Tkachuck's.

[mnfaninnc]

More national news on the Rossi front:

Quote

The Wild and Rossi’s camp haven’t had talks since early June, per league sources... With no offer sheets coming, at least for now, this might be a waiting game until the next pressure point in negotiations — the start of training camp in mid-September.

An offer sheet, in fact, is likely not coming at all, according to a report we shared recently from insider Frank Seravalli. 

"It’s almost like Guerin, who vowed to match any offer sheet, was playing a game of chicken to show Rossi’s camp that he didn’t buy that this threat was a real threat. And to this juncture, at least, he’s been right," write Smith & Russo.

AFP Analytics has projected the 5'9" center to command a seven-year deal on his next contract with a $7.4M AAV. That might be a little high, and the Wild have no intentions of going there. A short-term bridge deal, suggests the analytics firm, would likely run two years at $4.5M per. 

Here's the thing, Rossi has demands, Shooter has demands. Shooter played this right by not doing anything. He doesn't need to do anything. He hasn't spoken since June because there's nothing to talk about. He doesn't believe Rossi is worth 7 x $7m at this time, and so far, the offersheets are proving him right. 

There also is no incentive for Shooter to budge. Without an offersheet, Rossi has 1% leverage (holding out) which would torpedo his NHL career. The very best thing that Rossi can do is also wait until right before training camp, bulk up to the point where Shooter can trust him, and come back into negotiations willing to take the 2 year bridge which will be south of $5m. 

From Shooter's perspective, he can try to convince Verbeek to trade McTavish for Rossi or just wait for camp. But, the puck is in Rossi's corner for a deal now.

[Pewterschmidt]

22 minutes ago, Willy the poor boy said:

Until last year or two most everyone wanted to trade Boldy also... Fans get entirely to antsy. They wanted to get rid Sturm then

The trade Boldy chatter a year ago was re-donk-u-lous.  

Re: Sturm - absence has made the heart grow fonder.  By January all the usual suspects will be wishing Fred "passenger with a check'd bag" Gudjro was back after watching a few months of Nico "(Nick Bjugstad light * Tyler Enis) / Chuck Kobasew" Sturmdazzle

But P-Snuffleufagus, what about his FO% with the Sharks.  I'll predict he's at 50.5% this upcoming season.

I'm so sick of watching bill march out the same warmed-over group of 1-and-done noodles.

#Dogdays

[Scalptrash]

I think these teams would/should be interested in Rossi. They have the cap space and could all benefit by adding a 60 point player. They aren't going to have high draft picks, so the compensation might be worth it. They could offer $6-7M x 4 or 5 years and force the Wild's hand. Especially Calgary, who almost bumped the Wild from the playoffs last season (by 20.9 seconds). Either stealing Rossi or forcing the Wild to pay more than they want to is a win win for them.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

17 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

There also is no incentive for Shooter to budge.

The only incentive I can see there is to keep Rossi after his RFA period. I think we can agree the 5X5 was a bit of a low ball offer compared to what other players his size have got around the league, with less points (see Stankoven 6M and Coronato 6.5M). If Guerin had any wiggle room in his offer to compromise it might give Rossi the warm and fuzzies about playing here past his RFA period. I would hate for his to develop further in the RFA period to an 80pt guy steady and then give us the middle finger as soon as he hits UFA. 

The way Billy is going about this will get him locked in for a good AAV, hopefully that low AAV is worth the possible rift in the relationship and doesn't turn into another Fiala situation. We may not make it out so cleanly next time.

In other news, Boldy just got put on the top ten contracts in the NHL right now. His market value (based on Dom's model) is 12.3M. That should give some perspective on why Rossi is asking what he is instead of comparing him to Boldy to see if he is worth that, knowing that Boldy is far more valuable than what he got paid.

[mnfaninnc]

23 hours ago, 0 Stanley Cups said:

We shouldn't want to trade Rossi down the road, we should want to keep him on the team, otherwise why did BG draft him at 9th knowing his size, draft someone else, especially a center.  Yurov is our only other legit center prospect and he's a total question mark right now.

Seven years and BG still can't address the lack of center depth.  Patience and confidence is running thin with BG.  Rossi shouldn't sign more than a 2 year deal.

I still would have drafted Lundell in that position. But, I believe that Guerin is not much of a draft guy. He was able to hire Judd late in the process in 2020 and we don't know how many notes Judd actually had on players (how much did he have to relinquish when leaving the Canucks?)

I do believe that Guerin pretty much stayed out of the 2020 draft and let Judd run the table. I really don't think he got involved much until 2023 when I believe he took over the table for Stramel and Kumpulainen before handing it back to Judd who took Heidt. 

Judd was known for taking undersized guys. He also seemed to like droppers and at the time Rossi seemed like a dropper. However, nobody planned on Rossi having the health issues which set him back at least 2 seasons. Judd drafted a 5'9" kid who was a very good player in jrs. He was also 185. If Guerin even signed off on it, he's looking at a kid who will fill out another 10-15 lbs. with age, picturing a stocky kid who's hard to knock off the puck. 

The health challenge changed this. It changed it really big. It was no fault of the team and no fault of the player. I still would have chosen Lundell just based upon size and style of play, I think he would have fit in here better. However, the expectations for Rossi shifted the moment he dealt with myocarditis. 

What would be interesting is to see what would have happened had that never happened to Rossi. What kind of player would he be now if he didn't lose that time?

[B1GKappa97]

33 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

I think these teams would/should be interested in Rossi. They have the cap space and could all benefit by adding a 60 point player. They aren't going to have high draft picks, so the compensation might be worth it. They could offer $6-7M x 4 or 5 years and force the Wild's hand. Especially Calgary, who almost bumped the Wild from the playoffs last season (by 20.9 seconds). Either stealing Rossi or forcing the Wild to pay more than they want to is a win win for them.

So why haven't they yet? 

Reality is that I very much doubt they want to overpay Rossi to the point where the Wild won't match. I don't see any benefit to waiting on it at this stage of the offseason when the UFA signings are pretty much over.

Sucks for Rossi but either way he's about to make multi-millions of dollars so don't feel too bad for him...

[mnfaninnc]

23 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

The size argument has gotten completely blown out of proportion. Kirill and Zuccarello are the same size as Rossi and nobody says they are too small.

I need an exception on this comment. 1) Kaprizov is a far larger player than Rossi, his thickness is much more. 2) I point out Zuccarello, Freddy, and Spurgeon all the time as being too small. 

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, Willy the poor boy said:

They wanted to get rid Sturm then,

I don't remember anyone wanting to get rid of Sturm. Some suggested getting something for him since his contract demands were higher than the team could pay, but nobody wanted him gone.

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

But P-Snuffleufagus, what about his FO% with the Sharks.  I'll predict he's at 50.5% this upcoming season.

I'm so sick of watching bill march out the same warmed-over group of 1-and-done noodles.

This may be, but he is a quality 4th line center who played adequately on the 3rd line for the Sharks. I thought he'd make a good depth signing before it happened and recommended we go with Sturm and if Duchene became available. 

We've had issues with the 4th line since Sturm was traded. It's not just his FO%, it's his size and speed too. 

[mnfaninnc]

46 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

They could offer $6-7M x 4 or 5 years and force the Wild's hand.

That would most certainly be matched by Guerin. If a team really wants him and doesn't just want to waste time, that number must be $7.03m or higher.

I would list the Ducks on that list too, but as for an offersheet, I'd take of CBJ. CBJ has got plenty of other assets to trade with besides using a '26 1, 2, 3. They've also got strength down their middle.

[Pewterschmidt]

25 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

So why haven't they yet? 

Reality is that I very much doubt they want to overpay Rossi to the point where the Wild won't match.

While I agree the Rossi camp is getting a reality check on his market value, I think GM’s are waiting for bill to shoot his load on 97 contract, then interested GM’s can sharpen the pencil on Rossi offer sheet knowing the #’s on bill’s financial bind.  
i now believe Rossi gets an offer sheet this summer.