Article: The Mikael Granlund Contract Should Have Ended the Marco Rossi Debate

[SkolWild73]

On 7/8/2025 at 8:25 PM, mnhockeyfan03 said:

Looks at his stats against playoff teams in the west.  That tells the whole story.  He disappears

In the regular season, the entire Wild team was bad against playoff opponents from the West, getting outscored 83-50 in 24 games.  We had 41 ES goals in those games.  I only looked at out top three scorers for the year.  Rossi had 6 ES points and was a -8.  Boldy had 9 ES points and was -16.  Kap played in 11 games and had 7 ES points and was -6.  Pretty small sample size, but not that great for any of these guys, not just Rossi.

[TheGoosesAreLooses]

3 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I think most folks believe Rossi should have played more shifts, but he did help the Wild by centering the 4th line and keeping them level in the even strength scoring column.

I think this is going to continue to be an issue with Hynes in the playoffs. If you watch, LV rolled 4 lines all throughout that series while we rolled 2 with the bottom lines receiving about half the ice time of the top 2. It never surprises me when the Wild go up in the series and flame out. You can't be loading minutes on your top guys or they get depleted. Once they are depleted, then Vegas takes over. 

Until Hynes has guys he trusts up and down the lineup, this is going to be perpetual. Vegas in that series had 15 skaters over 80 min TOI, we had 11. You can't be sheltering 40% of your guys. That will have you out in the first round 100% of the time. 

I'm excited to see what this team becomes in the next couple years, but I would caution that our PS this year is going to be a learning year for 5 guys all on ELC. It would unreasonable to expect those guys to all elevate in playoffs, and I expect some saber rattling when we go out in the first again, trying to shelter guys in playoffs. Not implying they shouldn't be played in PS, I am advocating for the opposite, but it will come at a price. That price is an investment in two and three years from now.

[Will D. Ness]

Just now, SkolWild73 said:

In the regular season, the entire Wild team was bad against playoff opponents from the West, getting outscored 83-50 in 24 games.  We had 41 ES goals in those games.  I only looked at out top three scorers for the year.  Rossi had 6 ES points and was a -8.  Boldy had 9 ES points and was -16.  Kap played in 11 games and had 7 ES points and was -6.  Pretty small sample size, but not that great for any of these guys, not just Rossi.

Woah... that's ugly.

[SkolWild73]

16 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

Woah... that's ugly.

Yea, after looking at those three I really did not want to look at it anymore.  Kind of depressing.  

[mnhockeyfan03]

2 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

In the regular season, the entire Wild team was bad against playoff opponents from the West, getting outscored 83-50 in 24 games.  We had 41 ES goals in those games.  I only looked at out top three scorers for the year.  Rossi had 6 ES points and was a -8.  Boldy had 9 ES points and was -16.  Kap played in 11 games and had 7 ES points and was -6.  Pretty small sample size, but not that great for any of these guys, not just Rossi.

Thanks for looking that all up.  Just shows how far off this team is from being a contender and why some big changes are needed. So far we are getting nothing and trying to run it back and will have the same outcome 

[SkolWild73]

21 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

Thanks for looking that all up.  Just shows how far off this team is from being a contender and why some big changes are needed. So far we are getting nothing and trying to run it back and will have the same outcome 

I would note that I think we played with a full top 6 and top 4 D in 3 games.

[mnhockeyfan03]

4 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I would note that I think we played with a full top 6 and top 4 D in 3 games.

Our top 6 fwds and top 4 D are no where near good enough.  Need more size on D to clear front of net and need more size abd speed in top 6 fwds.  

[mnfaninnc]

On 7/9/2025 at 9:33 AM, ArizonaWildFan said:

Rossi played all 82 games last season and had 24 goals and 36 assists for a total of 60 points and .73 points per game.

Rossi played 21 games between 2/25 and 4/6 when both Kaprizov and Ek were out with injuries (there were other games during the season where one or both were out of the lineup with injuries) scored 4 goals, had 5 assists, 9 total points and .43 points per game.

The other 61 games that Rossi played he had 20 goals, 31 assists, 51 total points and .84 points per game.

Please don't try to get yourself or anyone else to believe that Rossi would not have had higher point totals last season if Kaprizov and Ek would not have missed those 21 games. Stats and facts don't lie. Rossi was a .84 PPG player with one or both Kaprizov and Ek in the lineup and a .43 PPG player without both of them.

Some dumbass or dumbasses are going to make a dumbass reply to this post. Waiting to see who gets crowned the King of Dumbasses.

Sorry AZ, I've been away for awhile. For the 1st 3/4 of the season, Rossi was flirting with ppg numbers. However, when the injuries happened, especially from both Ek and Kaprizov, his numbers fell off a cliff. I think it was worse than what you are stating here, it's not the ppg number you want, but the number of games with 0.

Here's my logic: When the Wild were at full strength, Rossi played on PP2 and sometimes played up with Kaprizov and sometimes down with Boldy. But here's what we don't know, does Hynes put the Boldy-Ek-Kaprizov line together forcing Rossi to be 2nd line C with Zuccarello and whoever?  With one of Ek or Kaprizov hurt, Rossi was the beneficiary of PP1 time, and he capitalized. With both out, though, the PP1 unit went cold. 

It is very true that teams would have honed in on Kaprizov had they both been healthy. I don't think you can conclude that Rossi has a wing that can run with him if both are healthy. He would get less icetime, and may or may not have had quality wings with him. 

So, when I say I don't really know, nobody does. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have been banished to the 4th line, but I'm not so sure he gets favorable deployments either. I will admit that it looked a lot like he was on pace for 70+ points and then the last 1/4 of the season happened and he wasn't delivering.

Was he overplayed? That can happen to a young guy, we all know Nino couldn't handle heavy minutes. Was the pressure too much for him? I don't know. I do know that putting Rossi and Boldy on line 1 wasn't working out. 

This unknown is something where we need some more data. Rossi has played every game the past 2 seasons, and that's commendable. However, does Rossi wear down to a point where he is not effective? Did he also fade in '23-24? One conclusion I can come to is that Rossi is very effective playing with talented wingers. He's a great complimentary piece there, but he is not a line driver...yet. 

[mnfaninnc]

On 7/9/2025 at 6:20 AM, Jakub K. said:

khl.ru lists him as 185cm 80kg, that's 6'0.8" 176.4 lbs. If that's correct, he absolutely needs to add weight.

If this is how he comes into this league, I will be sadly disappointed. Seems odd that this is his same weight and height at the combine.

[mnfaninnc]

On 7/8/2025 at 7:40 PM, SkolWild73 said:

I am not going to debate what type of player I think Rossi will be.  All I know is he improved in every aspect of his game from year one to year two.

I think this is where we have the problem. Let's review, and I do understand health issues, but the team doesn't need to pay for that.

We drafted Rossi and he was supposed to be one of the top 3 ready players to make the jump to the N. He was going to play at the world juniors for Austria and then come here and make the jump. He couldn't.

Draft year +1, again he could not make the team, his contract slid as he went to Iowa and did pretty well there. 

Draft year +2 he made the team out of camp with a nice preseason, and.....flopped. Back to the A where a year on his ELC got burned.

Draft year +3 Rossi has a great offseason by bulking up. It makes him competitive and he puts up 40 points finishing in the top 5 for the Calder trophy. 

Draft year +4 Rossi doesn't look particularly stronger or faster, but he gets better opportunities and puts up 60 points, quite an improvement. However, with about 20 games left to play, he goes cold on points when the team needed them. He could not carry a line or a team. In the playoffs, for whatever reason, he has wings of Trenin and Breezers and manages to score 2 goals. 

Rossi had a terrible start to his career that was not his fault, nor the team's. He has 2 nhl seasons played. He showed vast improvement from his rookie year to his 2nd year in points. But, one has to wonder, if he's given a big contract now, even though he could improve on points again this coming season, will he put in the summer work necessary to make himself bigger and stronger which he needs? This will also help him not run out of gas at the end of the year. 

With Kaprizov, you could see it on the ice, pay him now. With Boldy, the same was true. With Ek, he took far less, but he really only had 1 season where he was a true offensive weapon. And, as you said, we still don't know about Faber, though we can see the talent there. 

With Rossi there are outstanding questions. Will he revert back to the guy who had to go back down to the A? Will his cold streak continue at the start of '25-26? Is he a sure fire hit with a lengthy extension? I certainly hope so, but do I really know in my gut that this will be so? I do not. Why would we reward someone for a job that's not finished yet? 

Many very good players have had to take the bridge and then the long term extension. That's not a knock on the player, it's just the team protecting itself against a mistake. Bridge deals as an RFA are typically a value signing, not a $6.5m or $7m signing. Granny got $3m for 2 years. I would think that this is sufficient for Rossi too, except for adjusting for the cap increase. Also, Granny got 2 years at $3m without the constraints of the buyouts.

[SkolWild73]

20 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I think this is where we have the problem. Let's review, and I do understand health issues, but the team doesn't need to pay for that.

We drafted Rossi and he was supposed to be one of the top 3 ready players to make the jump to the N. He was going to play at the world juniors for Austria and then come here and make the jump. He couldn't.

Draft year +1, again he could not make the team, his contract slid as he went to Iowa and did pretty well there. 

Draft year +2 he made the team out of camp with a nice preseason, and.....flopped. Back to the A where a year on his ELC got burned.

Draft year +3 Rossi has a great offseason by bulking up. It makes him competitive and he puts up 40 points finishing in the top 5 for the Calder trophy. 

Draft year +4 Rossi doesn't look particularly stronger or faster, but he gets better opportunities and puts up 60 points, quite an improvement. However, with about 20 games left to play, he goes cold on points when the team needed them. He could not carry a line or a team. In the playoffs, for whatever reason, he has wings of Trenin and Breezers and manages to score 2 goals. 

Rossi had a terrible start to his career that was not his fault, nor the team's. He has 2 nhl seasons played. He showed vast improvement from his rookie year to his 2nd year in points. But, one has to wonder, if he's given a big contract now, even though he could improve on points again this coming season, will he put in the summer work necessary to make himself bigger and stronger which he needs? This will also help him not run out of gas at the end of the year. 

With Kaprizov, you could see it on the ice, pay him now. With Boldy, the same was true. With Ek, he took far less, but he really only had 1 season where he was a true offensive weapon. And, as you said, we still don't know about Faber, though we can see the talent there. 

With Rossi there are outstanding questions. Will he revert back to the guy who had to go back down to the A? Will his cold streak continue at the start of '25-26? Is he a sure fire hit with a lengthy extension? I certainly hope so, but do I really know in my gut that this will be so? I do not. Why would we reward someone for a job that's not finished yet? 

Many very good players have had to take the bridge and then the long term extension. That's not a knock on the player, it's just the team protecting itself against a mistake. Bridge deals as an RFA are typically a value signing, not a $6.5m or $7m signing. Granny got $3m for 2 years. I would think that this is sufficient for Rossi too, except for adjusting for the cap increase. Also, Granny got 2 years at $3m without the constraints of the buyouts.

Granlund's $3M for 2 years was after 2 seasons of scoring 8 goals in each season.  The only comparable to Granlund for that contract is time spent with the Wild.  His next two seasons are comparable point wise and age wise to Rossi and he received 4 years at $5.75 AAV at the age of 25 which is very comparable to what my original post, which is what I thought would get a deal done, 4 years at $6M AAV.  Again, my original post is not what I think Rossi will get or should get, just what I believe would get a deal done.

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

Granlund's $3M for 2 years was after 2 seasons of scoring 8 goals in each season.  The only comparable to Granlund for that contract is time spent with the Wild.  His next two seasons are comparable point wise and age wise to Rossi and he received 4 years at $5.75 AAV at the age of 25 which is very comparable to what my original post, which is what I thought would get a deal done, 4 years at $6M AAV.  Again, my original post is not what I think Rossi will get or should get, just what I believe would get a deal done.

If Guerin has questions about which Rossi he has, the 3/4 of a season Rossi or the last 1/4 of a season Rossi, why would he hand out a 4 x $6m contract? Especially when he doesn't have to!

Do you honestly believe that Marco Rossi is going to hold out? That he will abandon his teammates? That he will pull a Nylander? 

To get to 4 x $6m, it's got to be offersheeted by another team. The CBA just got extended for another 4 years, so it's not like the players have any problem with this treatment. Rossi's other option if he doesn't get offersheeted is to hold out, and I'm afraid this will not go well for him. 

Guerin has said before that he wants more FU in his game. That's a nice way of saying quit being soft. Can anyone think of a better FU than to be a ppg player and look up at the GMs suite when you score big? Maybe with a little Johnny Manziel and the money sign? 

To do this, Rossi's got to be on the ice to have a chance. And, to have a chance, he needs another monster offseason where he is specifically working on left hand strength, elite edge work and bulking up. The lower left hand will help his shot and probably some faceoffs. The elite edge work will tie up larger defenders in knots, and the bulking up will allow him to shield better and tie someone up against the boards better using his leverage. It will also help him slip bodychecks.

If I am sitting in Guerin's chair, I have no guarantee that Rossi will do these things. But, I do believe if he does them, Guerin should think more about keeping the young player and letting Zuccarello and Spurgeon drop off. 

This is the reality of the situation. Now, what if Guerin see that Rossi has put in the work, has bulked up, has strengthened his lower hand, and has worked hard on elite edges? Would I as GM be willing to go higher? Yes I would. And it might play out exactly that way. Last I heard, the 2 sides have walked away. This is a great time for Rossi to come back a much larger player. 

[SkolWild73]

19 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

If Guerin has questions about which Rossi he has, the 3/4 of a season Rossi or the last 1/4 of a season Rossi, why would he hand out a 4 x $6m contract? Especially when he doesn't have to!

Do you honestly believe that Marco Rossi is going to hold out? That he will abandon his teammates? That he will pull a Nylander? 

To get to 4 x $6m, it's got to be offersheeted by another team. The CBA just got extended for another 4 years, so it's not like the players have any problem with this treatment. Rossi's other option if he doesn't get offersheeted is to hold out, and I'm afraid this will not go well for him. 

Guerin has said before that he wants more FU in his game. That's a nice way of saying quit being soft. Can anyone think of a better FU than to be a ppg player and look up at the GMs suite when you score big? Maybe with a little Johnny Manziel and the money sign? 

To do this, Rossi's got to be on the ice to have a chance. And, to have a chance, he needs another monster offseason where he is specifically working on left hand strength, elite edge work and bulking up. The lower left hand will help his shot and probably some faceoffs. The elite edge work will tie up larger defenders in knots, and the bulking up will allow him to shield better and tie someone up against the boards better using his leverage. It will also help him slip bodychecks.

If I am sitting in Guerin's chair, I have no guarantee that Rossi will do these things. But, I do believe if he does them, Guerin should think more about keeping the young player and letting Zuccarello and Spurgeon drop off. 

This is the reality of the situation. Now, what if Guerin see that Rossi has put in the work, has bulked up, has strengthened his lower hand, and has worked hard on elite edges? Would I as GM be willing to go higher? Yes I would. And it might play out exactly that way. Last I heard, the 2 sides have walked away. This is a great time for Rossi to come back a much larger player. 

Again, I have never said Rossi would hold out or abandon his teammates.  And yes, he can sign a 4x6 if we offer him that.  I will repeat again what I have said multiple times now.  I am not saying what I think Rossi will or should get, just that a 4x6 would get it done.

[mnfaninnc]

10 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

Again, I have never said Rossi would hold out or abandon his teammates.  And yes, he can sign a 4x6 if we offer him that.  I will repeat again what I have said multiple times now.  I am not saying what I think Rossi will or should get, just that a 4x6 would get it done.

I understand the last part, but what you haven't said is why would Guerin cave in? He's got almost all the cards in his hand, and Rossi's only possibly got a joker (offersheet). Why would Guerin bid against himself? There's no reason for Guerin to go this high on him if he has reservations. 

Now if I'm Guerin, I have no problem going on vacation right now and dealing with this when everyone's back in town. Find out Kaprizov's return date, circle that on the calendar as to when to come back and get that piece solidified. Honestly, I'd like to see what Rossi looks like closer to camp. If he's been putting in a lot of hard work, I might change my stance if I'm him. 

Let me try another way, is it in Guerin's best interest to have a deal done now? And if so, why? 

[SkolWild73]

22 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I understand the last part, but what you haven't said is why would Guerin cave in? He's got almost all the cards in his hand, and Rossi's only possibly got a joker (offersheet). Why would Guerin bid against himself? There's no reason for Guerin to go this high on him if he has reservations. 

Now if I'm Guerin, I have no problem going on vacation right now and dealing with this when everyone's back in town. Find out Kaprizov's return date, circle that on the calendar as to when to come back and get that piece solidified. Honestly, I'd like to see what Rossi looks like closer to camp. If he's been putting in a lot of hard work, I might change my stance if I'm him. 

Let me try another way, is it in Guerin's best interest to have a deal done now? And if so, why? 

Again, I have never said he should cave in or offer what I proposed..  My entire first post was about what would get a deal done now, less than Rossi wants and a more than we first offered.  Yes he can wait, yes he has most of the cards.  Only way it doesn’t work out is if someone comes in with an offer sheet higher than what Billy is hoping to pay.  
 

What do you think the bridge deal should be?  Similar to what Granlund got at 2 years and $3.5M AAV?

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

What do you think the bridge deal should be?  Similar to what Granlund got at 2 years and $3.5M AAV?

2 years, $3.5m 1st year, $5.5m 2nd year. $4.5m aav.

Rossi's QO is then $6.xm in '27, and he gives up the extra year in exchange for the next higher QO. He will still be an RFA, but I think we will have enough data on him to either give him the big deal, or trade him off. We will also have Spurgeon and Zuccarello drop off leaving Rossi as our only undersized player. Of course, this is debatable, because if Rossi does put on the strength weight, he may just be short and not undersized. 

I still believe Brodin is undersized for his height, and I do think he needs to add some strength to his game as he gets older and loses a step. To me, he has either lost a step or the league has caught up with him. As he turns and someone tries to blow by him on the outside he can still bump them off their line, but this is where the extra strength is needed. It will also help him not get walked off the boards. He's been very good at the weight/strength he is now, but he'll need to reinvent his game as he grows in his 30s. I think he can be effective until 40 if he does that. 

[SkolWild73]

21 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

2 years, $3.5m 1st year, $5.5m 2nd year. $4.5m aav.

Rossi's QO is then $6.xm in '27, and he gives up the extra year in exchange for the next higher QO. He will still be an RFA, but I think we will have enough data on him to either give him the big deal, or trade him off. We will also have Spurgeon and Zuccarello drop off leaving Rossi as our only undersized player. Of course, this is debatable, because if Rossi does put on the strength weight, he may just be short and not undersized. 

I still believe Brodin is undersized for his height, and I do think he needs to add some strength to his game as he gets older and loses a step. To me, he has either lost a step or the league has caught up with him. As he turns and someone tries to blow by him on the outside he can still bump them off their line, but this is where the extra strength is needed. It will also help him not get walked off the boards. He's been very good at the weight/strength he is now, but he'll need to reinvent his game as he grows in his 30s. I think he can be effective until 40 if he does that. 

A $4.5 AAV seems a little low to me for what he has done.  Here are a couple of examples of bridge deals to players with similar size and production from the last couple of years.

William Ecklund, LW, 5'11", 180 pounds, signed 3-year, $5.6M AAV (5.4% of cap) on July 1, 2025.  Ecklund was drafted 7th in 2021 and played a handful of games in the N in his first two years.  Similar to Rossi, he played almost exclusively in the A three years ago. Two years ago, he put up 45 points and then 58 points last year.  Very similar to Rossi.  Rossi has scored more goals while Ecklund has more assists.  Rossi has more SOG, a few more hits, more takeaways, and less giveaways, while Ecklund has more blocks.

Trevor Zegras, C, 6'0, 180 pounds, signed a 3-year, $5.75M AAV (6.9% of cap, equivalent to $6.5M today) on Oct. 2, 2023.  Zegras was drafted 9th a year before Rossi.  His two seasons before signing his bridge deal he had 61 and 65 points.  His overall offensive stats were better than Rossi, but he had similar hit totals and less blocks and a much worse FO%.  Would think Rossi would be worth about the same contract since the cap % would be less.

I would think something in the range of these two would be fair for both sides.