Article: The Mikael Granlund Contract Should Have Ended the Marco Rossi Debate

[Tony Abbott]

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[Citizen Strife]

Granlund being a 50-60 pt player for years would have helped.  This is Guerin or the agent playing chicken when there's no guarantee a Fiala-esque return is waiting.

Maybe there is or maybe someone better trade wise is waiting (doubtful), but $1-2m or an extra year can't seriously mean this much to either side...so frustrating.

[MNCountryLife]

Every dollar of every contract matters.  We can say: "Pay the Man, he is worth it"... and he probably is.... but it won't change the fact that if we can get Rossi at $5M instead of $7M that leaves $2M more that can go to another player and make this team deeper.  So we play the money game. 

[SkolWild73]

It seems easy to me being a math guy.  One side offered 5x5, the other asked for 7x7, middle ground would say 6x6.  Use that as a new starting point and it shouldn’t take long.  If I am Rossi, I would want a 4 year deal to bring me to UFA status.  4x6-7 seems fair

[OldDutchChip]

we shouldn't rush to sign him to 7 or higher LT deal until he proves that he belongs in the top 6. we have leverage on him, and we are using it.

it is also in Rossi's best interest (financially speaking) to bet on himself (if he believes in himself). sign a short term deal - come in and deliver - and it will pay off. 

i think billy is handling this surprisingly well (i was wrong about him), not just Rossi but the team construct part.

i do believe he understands that top 6 needs more physically imposing and skilled players. those are hard to get but he is banking on one being available this TDL. perhaps Tage or Tuch or Brady or Larkin or Pasta or Panarin (not tough but super skill). you have to have flexibility to get them and you'd loose that if you pay up for Rossi now. 

there is also Rossi's replacement - Yurov. i get it that he is an unknown, but it does seem like top 6 is a spot for him sooner or later. So having two undersized players (centers too) added to an already "soft" list of players in the top 6 is just not a good strategy.

so it's simple - Rossi is a good player - but he doesn't fit our Top 6. 

[SkolWild73]

I will say this.  Every time that I refresh the Puckpedia page, I am hoping to see the players signed number go up and then see Rossi's name.  Then I scroll down and check the trades.  Just can't wait until this is over.  I am patient on the KK97 signing.  None of the other big names of 2026 have signed yet and I am assuming we will hear something when Kap gets back from Russia.

[Sam]

39 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

we shouldn't rush to sign him to 7 or higher LT deal until he proves that he belongs in the top 6.
Rossi is a good player - but he doesn't fit our Top 6. 

I thought he proved himself pretty clearly this past season. If he doesn’t belong in the top 6 then who do you suggest? Hartman? Or some unproven player with little experience like Ohgren or Yurov?

[Burnt Toast]

39 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

me being a math guy.

I like to start with this equation when solving team construction problems. 1C>2C. As ODC stated it’s all about priorities in how BG wants to build the Wild moving forward. You mentioned Rossi 4*$6, makes sense to me until equation 1 can be solved. 

[OldDutchChip]

3 minutes ago, Sam said:

I thought he proved himself pretty clearly this past season. If he doesn’t belong in the top 6 then who do you suggest? Hartman? Or some unproven player with little experience like Ohgren or Yurov?

i disagree - i don't think he proved it

none of the above

the top 6 help will likely be external unless Yurov is a fireball

[SkolWild73]

4 minutes ago, Burnt Toast said:

I like to start with this equation when solving team construction problems. 1C>2C. As ODC stated it’s all about priorities in how BG wants to build the Wild moving forward. You mentioned Rossi 4*$6, makes sense to me until equation 1 can be solved. 

Agreed, and a 4x6-7 contract should be easily moved in a trade if we want to do that in the future.

[mnfaninnc]

58 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

4x6-7 seems fair

This is the issue, though. Within the CBA, "fair" doesn't play a part in it. For the 1st 6 years of a player's career, he is under team control essentially meaning that he will be a value signing. The player has 2 options, but Rossi has just qualified for 1, offersheet or arbitration. 

And, I think this is exactly where we are in this debate. It is up to the GM to keep the players relatively happy while getting the best deal he can for the team. It is up to the player's agent to get as much for the player (and ultimately himself) as he can. 

What ends up happening should be that Guerin wins this battle...but, if it's a 1 or 2 year deal, he may or may not win that one.

[SkolWild73]

Just now, mnfaninnc said:

This is the issue, though. Within the CBA, "fair" doesn't play a part in it. For the 1st 6 years of a player's career, he is under team control essentially meaning that he will be a value signing. The player has 2 options, but Rossi has just qualified for 1, offersheet or arbitration. 

And, I think this is exactly where we are in this debate. It is up to the GM to keep the players relatively happy while getting the best deal he can for the team. It is up to the player's agent to get as much for the player (and ultimately himself) as he can. 

What ends up happening should be that Guerin wins this battle...but, if it's a 1 or 2 year deal, he may or may not win that one.

I meant fair for both sides.

[Will D. Ness]

Granlund was overpaid because he was successful in the playoffs.  I chuckled when I heard he got 7M.  Good for him, but comparing a UFA to a RFA in terms of value smells somewhat like a red herring.

[MNCountryLife]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

So having two undersized players (centers too) added to an already "soft" list of players in the top 6 is just not a good strategy

Isn't Yurov 6'1''?  He may need to add some weight/muscle but he won't be undersized for long.  At 21 you still haven't filled your frame.  Between now and age 23 I would expect him to bulk up to roughly 200lbs.

[mnfaninnc]

Let's investigate Tony's argument a little deeper. 

Mikael Granlund came out of his ELC with a 2 year bridge deal at $3m. If Tony's argument is that Rossi is Granlund 2.0, then a bridge deal is probably the route to go. 

Today, that bridge deal is probably closer to the $4.5m mark, maybe $4m. Statistically speaking, though, Granlund didn't hit 60 points until he went to wing in his 5th season. Then he got the $5.75m contract for 3 years, which is probably closer to $7m now. 

So, Rossi's camp wants to jump the bridge deal and go straight for the next contract up. Granlund was then traded in the 2nd year of the $5.75m contract and struggled in Nashville. He had pay cuts ever since that one until now, which probably is on par with what he got in his 3rd contract.

So, how were the others handled? Nino got a 3 year bridge at $2.67m, Coyle immediately got a 6 year deal at $3.2m, which was a pretty good bargain. 

Why is there so much talk about skipping the 2nd bridge deal contract? I know some teams have just caved and gone big after ELCs, typically buying out the beginning of UFA years, but now that the cap has expanded again, why not go back to the team friendly bridge deals? 

In Granlund's case, he had to be moved out of center, and 2nd line C was the best he was getting. Then he had his 69 point season in a contract year and got his $5.75m where he continued to produce close to that level. 

Rossi isn't a $7m player. Remember how Koivu spoke about Granny, glowing that his 200' game had drastically improved and that was what he was most proud of? Granny was getting tossed to the ground by Big Buff during his 2nd contract. Granny was far more solid in his 3rd. 

[0 Stanley Cups]

Granlund vs Rossi is a great comparison, but I definitely prefer the way Rossi plays on the ice, he gets to the dirty areas both behind and in-front of the net kind of like Parise.

The Wild have their line with Rossi, but it doesn't appear to be one that's aligned with the market or reality.

Very true!  the way the Wild has treated his 4th line demotion and lowball offers is unwarranted for a team who can't draft centers, and the Wild definitely wouldn't have made the playoffs without Rossi, while both 97 and 14 were injured much of the season.

[mnfaninnc]

4 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

Isn't Yurov 6'1''?  He may need to add some weight/muscle but he won't be undersized for long.  At 21 you still haven't filled your frame.  Between now and age 23 I would expect him to bulk up to roughly 200lbs.

All we have listed on him is his draft weight. We have no idea the body building he's done in Russia.

[mnfaninnc]

20 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

I meant fair for both sides.

Precisely, the 1st couple of years coming out of an ELC are still meant to be "value" years for the club owning the rights.

[OldDutchChip]

6 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

Isn't Yurov 6'1''?  He may need to add some weight/muscle but he won't be undersized for long.  At 21 you still haven't filled your frame.  Between now and age 23 I would expect him to bulk up to roughly 200lbs.

i definitely hope so! the arrival of yurov - 

[SkolWild73]

4 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Precisely, the 1st couple of years coming out of an ELC are still meant to be "value" years for the club owning the rights.

So you do or don't think 4X6 is fair for both sides?

[mnfaninnc]

A fair question for management to have answered is was the real Rossi the guy who we saw for the first 3/4 of the season, or the guy we saw the last 1/4? 

To answer this question, more data is needed. In the last 1/4, we can throw out the ppg argument, he was very inconsistent and was invisible against stronger competition many of those games. Therefore a lower 2 year bridge deal is in order. 

And, so far, the market has spoken. He's not worth $7m a year. Perhaps an offersheet comes in the next couple of weeks, but Rossi didn't have adequate trade offers, and it looks very much like nobody is willing to give up 1, 2, 3 next draft. In fact,  it looks like nobody is willing to give up 1, 3 either.

[mnfaninnc]

4 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

So you do or don't think 4X6 is fair for both sides?

Actually, I'm leaning to 2 x $4.5m. $3.5m year 1, $5.5m year 2. That makes a QO at about $6.1m after 2 seasons. I think after 2 more seasons, management should have a good gauge on the player. 

But, I'd also be trying really hard to pick up Mason McTavish and including Rossi in the package to the Ducks. 

But to further answer your question, I don't think it has to be fair for both sides, I think this is mostly a 1 sided negotiation where Guerin has 90% of the power. 

Edited 4 hours ago by mnfaninnc

[WildNotMild]

From my understanding, most offer sheets are done in August.  First, the argument that no one wants him because he hasn’t signed an offer sheet is incorrect.  For all we know, he has been presented with an offer sheet but hasn’t signed it or won’t for that particular team.

Second, the argument that “no other team wants him” is likely incorrect.  If he was an UFA, does anyone really think he wouldn’t get 7M per?  Teams really have to think twice about giving up draft capital in an offer sheet or trade AND still paying the player.  That is a double whammy.  Plus, historically there has been a gentlemen’s agreement to not use the offer sheet route if the other team can easily match.

Other GMs might be waiting for Billy to resign Kaprizov or make more moves to limit what he can match if Rossi does sign an offer sheet.  Likewise, Billy is limited in what he can do if he needs to keep 7M+ set aside just in case.

Finally, I think Rossi is a good player.  I would rather lock him into a deal for 7 years because any deal will look better each year for a younger player as the cap goes up.  I also think Billy wants to trade him and having him signed to a longer contract will likely help.  A team acquiring Rossi would likely give up more if he is under contract for 6-7 years versus looking for a new contract in 1-2 years.  Similar to how more equity is given for players at the TDL who have more term left on their contracts.

[SkolWild73]

4 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Actually, I'm leaning to 2 x $4.5m. $3.5m year 1, $5.5m year 2. That makes a QO at about $6.1m after 2 seasons. I think after 2 more seasons, management should have a good gauge on the player. 

But, I'd also be trying really hard to pick up Mason McTavish and including Rossi in the package to the Ducks. 

But to further answer your question, I don't think it has to be fair for both sides, I think this is mostly a 1 sided negotiation where Guerin has 90% of the power. 

Of course, Billy has all the power, but that doesn't mean you sign him to a 2 x $4.5.  What kind of message does that send to the rest of the players on the team as well as the rest of the league?  We offered him 5 x5M.  To do less years and offer less would be a terrible look.  The CBA wasn't put in place to screw over players coming out of their ELC, it was done to help teams to keep the players that they drafted.  Back to the 5 X 5M we offered.  If we offer 4 years, then the AAV goes up.  4 x6-7 is fair for both sides.  The total contract is close to what we originally offered, and we can still trade him if we want down the road .  Rossi gets close to what he is asking for, just less years, and if he plays well, he will get a larger one at the end of it when he is a UFA

[ArizonaWildFan]

25 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

A fair question for management to have answered is was the real Rossi the guy who we saw for the first 3/4 of the season, or the guy we saw the last 1/4?

This isn't meant to be an argument but rather looking at last season from a different perspective. Would Rossi have been higher than a 60 point player last season if Kaprizov and Ek wouldn't have been out at the same time for an extended period? IMO absolutely.

Guerin is quick to say that Ek needs depth help. Guerin was tight-lipped when Rossi stepped in to Ek's role while he was injured, without having Kaprizov's help as well.

Rossi has been and continues to be held to a higher standard than others on the team and around the league. I wish the Wild management and coaches, along with the Rossi hating fans, would just come out and say they don't like him rather than trying to make lame excuses for not wanting him around. Grow some balls, people, because statistically moving on from Rossi just doesn't make sense.