Article: Guerin Isn't Really Following His Five-Year Plan

[Tom Schreier]

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[Citizen Strife]

We can't assume anything about this team until we know Rossi is staying and/or some as of yet savior TDL is available.

Guerin HAD a plan (a kinda silly one), but nearly every free agent said nope and stayed out.

[Will D. Ness]

The FA market was soft this year.  I'm happy we didn't reach, but we do have to pull the trigger soon.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

2 Years ago, Tarasenko had 55 points and was +13 for the season, then won the cup while tallying 9 points in 24 playoff games. At that time, if you would have told me the Wild would add him for less than $5M and giving up no assets, it might have sounded too good to be true.

I'm not saying that they are delivering on Christmas, but I know it's been a long wait to see some of the youth in prominent roles, so there are reasons to be excited about the upcoming season.

Getting Yurov, Ohgren, Buium, and Jiricek into lineups for the Minnesota Wild on a nightly basis might be more exciting than future disappointment from 7 years of the defensively limited and below average speed of Brock Boeser. I recall some initial excitement in adding Thomas Vanek, but that didn't last and I wonder if Boeser will age with similar fall off in his game.

[Dis-allowed display name]

Instead, they must build a foundation of developmental success stories like Faber to elevate the team.

 

This just sort of jumped out at me.  We did not develop this guy, he just sort of was ready to go when we got him.  Our farm system has supposedly had talent but I am not sure that Iowa has been much more than a holding pen where we just hope players will improve through the aging process.

 

"Skate around guys.  Go faster.  Try harder."  You know, solid coaching like that.

 

 

Edited July 7 by Dis-allowed display name

[Dis-allowed display name]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

 

Getting Yurov, Ohgren, Buium, and Jiricek into lineups for the Minnesota Wild on a nightly basis might be more exciting than future disappointment from 7 years of the defensively limited and below average speed of Brock Boeser.

As a recent former ticket holder, I would rather miss the playoffs entirely, give those young guys some time and see if they improve and are the real deal than watch another one-and-out  with NoJosey, and Treninsy, or Reavesy, or some other collections of arthritic Stiffsies they want to fool me into thinking we have a shot with.  If Yurov, Ohgren, and Buium are flying around making mistakes, at least they are flying around.  

[OldDutchChip]

we are not winning if we cannot trade up from this top 6 and beef it up. this year TDL is going to be vital for us and all signs pointing to Billy agreeing, since he kept that door open. Kap, Ek, Boldy are the only sure thing in that group. And they need help. Yurov and Rossi are not big and strong. Ohgren hasn't really shown to be top 6 material (yet) but maybe he comes in and impresses.

I think 2 out of 6 in your top 6 will be changed. One internal and one external change. Likely Rossi and Ohgren out or bumped down.

• First line: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Danila Yurov
• Second line: Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi, and Liam Ohgren

but the good thing is that Billy does actually have a plan. he hasn't signed (overpaid) Nelly, Boeser, Bjugstad or Ehlers. they are not part of the plan.

[mnfaninnc]

Somewhere in this plan, there had to be the transitioning of the kids, the draft picks from '20-'23 getting into the lineup. I am in favor of this happening in a large quantity, like 5 rookies this season. I feel like that is more like year 2 though, not year 3. 

In the offseason so far, we haven't really gotten any needle changers. If the rumor I read earlier today is true, a package for Mason McTavish is a must, and, yes, we will need to overpay for him on paper. 

My hope is that he despises his role and totally wants out. A package with Rossi + could get that done. That would solidify the top 2 centers.

We needed a guy like Kreider. Perhaps there is another guy in that same vein, Alex Tuch, who to my knowledge, has not re-signed yet either. If we can't get that done now, perhaps December or January are a good time, before the TDL. 

How we start this season is not how we will end it with the roster. There's a lot of time and some teams out of the picture that will allow us to grab a couple of guys. Just keep some cap space to include them. 

Also, if this happens, don't be surprised if some of our current bottom 6 vets also get sent out. This needs to happen. 

And, on an interesting note, as I popped up McTavish's picture from elite prospects, both he and Rossi conveniently wear 23. Seems like a seamless change!

[Patrick]

No way KK is worth 17 million a year after Rantanen and Marner signed for 12 million a year.  Its debatable whether KK is a better player than either of those guys, let alone worth close to 50% more annually.  If that is his demand let him walk. 

I'm glad Guerin didn't spend in free agency.  Outside of Marner, it was a bunch of overrated guys.

[LarryOg]

Whatever Bill's plan is, it obviously needs to have nojo involved. 🙄

[TCMooch]

2 hours ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

Instead, they must build a foundation of developmental success stories like Faber to elevate the team.

 

This just sort of jumped out at me.  We did not develop this guy, he just sort of was ready to go when we got him.  Our farm system has supposedly had talent but I am not sure that Iowa has been much more than a holding pen where we just hope players will improve through the aging process.

 

"Skate around guys.  Go faster.  Try harder."  You know, solid coaching like that.

 

 

Agree. Our track record on developing NHL talent is terrible. With the cap it’s almost a necessary skill a successful organization needs to compete. The closest we’ve come developing a bona fide star is…Boldy? Is that right? Did I miss somebody? Did Boldy even play much in the AHL? Maybe it’s Rossi instead.

[SkolWild73]

20 minutes ago, TCMooch said:

Agree. Our track record on developing NHL talent is terrible. With the cap it’s almost a necessary skill a successful organization needs to compete. The closest we’ve come developing a bona fide star is…Boldy? Is that right? Did I miss somebody? Did Boldy even play much in the AHL? Maybe it’s Rossi instead.

How many stars have actually played a lot in the AHL though?  Of the top 50 scorers in the NHL this year, only two, Adrian Kempe and JT Miller, played more than 100 games in the AHL.  

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, Patrick said:

I'm glad Guerin didn't spend in free agency.  Outside of Marner, it was a bunch of overrated guys.

Get ready for this to be the short term norm. With the cap going up considerably each year, every team is getting bailed out of higher contracts. 

So, now we have to go to the trade market. 

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, TCMooch said:

Agree. Our track record on developing NHL talent is terrible. With the cap it’s almost a necessary skill a successful organization needs to compete. The closest we’ve come developing a bona fide star is…Boldy? Is that right? Did I miss somebody? Did Boldy even play much in the AHL? Maybe it’s Rossi instead.

Almost every draft pick that has come onto the team spent most of their development in different places besides the A. The guy with the most time there is The Wall. 

It would be nice if we could see something from him, Milne, Lambos, Spacek this season. Personally, I think the #1 detriment is not insisting that the kids come in and build an NHL frame. To many skipped leg day....and then skip upper body day....and then just did cardio with some straps. That's not the way to do it. Guys need to get bigger and meaner.

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, SkolWild73 said:

How many stars have actually played a lot in the AHL though?  Of the top 50 scorers in the NHL this year, only two, Adrian Kempe and JT Miller, played more than 100 games in the AHL.

If this is true, that's a very telling stat. Maybe the new rules for NA players getting to play college hockey will help?

[SkolWild73]

48 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

If this is true, that's a very telling stat. Maybe the new rules for NA players getting to play college hockey will help?

It is possible I missed one or two, but I think I got them all.  I actually looked at all 85 players that scored 60 or more points last year and besides Kempe and Miller, the only other players with more than 100 AHL games were Fiala, Kadri, Batherson and Rossi.  

[1Brotherbill]

I think Kirill is going to get 14 maybe 15 a year.  Anything more and the Wild would have to seriously cut payroll. 

As far as the five year plan.... It is cute to say things like this and then say well last year wasn't what we expected.  So we are still on year 2 of the 5.  That is fine as long as the team progresses.  Did they progress?  Rossi showed he is legit a NHL player.  Gus showed he is a number one goalie.  Kirill showed that he is a MVP caliber player when not hurt.  Boldy progressing to a 100 point player. Faber had a regression, that could be a sophomore slump or something to be concerned about.  Everyone else just got a year older.  

So, where does that leave the team.  Well the team is going to look very similar to last year going into October.  The team will have a lot of flexibility for adding pieces at the trade deadline.  More so if Rossi leaves on a RFA deal.  With Hynes system and what they have with the Defense they will win a lot of games this year and be one of the top teams in the west.  As long as they don't get hurt that is.  The team has little depth outside of the starters, lose one guy and they are in trouble and it just snowballs from there. 

So, how do they get deeper.  Well the prospects need to be addressed.  This idea that you won't trade your future and then not use those players in a future plan is getting old.  The longer they sit in Iowa the less likely someone is going to say sure we will take Lambos in a trade or name random elite prospect.  

BG if you want to make the team better make some deals and trade away some prospects in the process. 

[B1GKappa97]

14 hours ago, Patrick said:

No way KK is worth 17 million a year after Rantanen and Marner signed for 12 million a year.  Its debatable whether KK is a better player than either of those guys, let alone worth close to 50% more annually.  If that is his demand let him walk. 

I'm glad Guerin didn't spend in free agency.  Outside of Marner, it was a bunch of overrated guys.

Whoa. No. You don't just let a Kaprizov walk. You trade him at the worst. 

[B1GKappa97]

12 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Personally, I think the #1 detriment is not insisting that the kids come in and build an NHL frame. To many skipped leg day....and then skip upper body day....and then just did cardio with some straps. That's not the way to do it. Guys need to get bigger and meaner.

I think part of it is just the length of the NHL season too. Wild go through the playoffs, their season ends in maybe early May and then by September they're supposed to show back up in shape for training camp. 

That gives them only 4 months to build muscle because I doubt they're going too heavy with lifting in-season when they're trying to keep their bodies fresh for the long season. 

Which means, at most, they're probably looking to be able to add 5 lbs of lean mass in that short offseason IF they're fully locked in. And when you're drafting guys that are only 170 - 180lbs, it'll take them some time to actually get up around 200lbs. 

I think that's part of why you see teams go so crazy for size at the top of the draft all the time. Its just a shorter road to the 200-lbs club for those guys and then they've got a size advantage over other young players.

[B1GKappa97]

Its funny that they flipped this new 5-year plan on us and then told us we were actually in year 2 at the start of last year. Just LOL. What a horrible interview that ended up being for the owner.

He'll never give them again after all this egg on his face! 

But being real, I don't think upgrading the top-6 should be too difficult in the near-future. Kaprizov is obviously the biggest piece of that puzzle, so they've got to get that piece to fall first, but the BEEK line has been consistently among the best in the league, so we've got a legit top-line there. 

The 2nd line could do with a complete overhaul, whether they keep Rossi or not. I don't know that I'd count Ohgren as a future 2nd line contributor. If he ends up in the bottom-6, I think that's fine for the 5-year plan. 

There SHOULD be some other options at wing by the TDL and with the way the contracts are structured it sort of forces Guerin's hands to have to upgrade the 2nd line wingers by the start of the next season since Zuccy and Taranseko will both be UFA. 

[mnfaninnc]

5 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

I think part of it is just the length of the NHL season too. Wild go through the playoffs, their season ends in maybe early May and then by September they're supposed to show back up in shape for training camp. 

I was talking about the A, not the N. In the A, sometimes you get a week off before a bevy of games. Their scheduling is a bit weird, so, they have the time to do the lifting, but aren't taking advantage of it. And, ending in May has not been a problem in Des Moines. 

[Scalptrash]

Quote

Kaprizov’s mounting injuries are concerning.

This is why he isn’t worth more than $14M/season, actually less. But the Wild WILL overpay him to get him to stay. Every million more makes it that much harder to build a complete team. Praise/Suter are STILL costing the Wild nearly $2M per year for three more years. Wouldn’t that be nice to have for Kaprizov?

[B1GKappa97]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I was talking about the A, not the N. In the A, sometimes you get a week off before a bevy of games. Their scheduling is a bit weird, so, they have the time to do the lifting, but aren't taking advantage of it. And, ending in May has not been a problem in Des Moines. 

I mean having a week here or there isn't going to make much of a difference I wouldn't think. You gotta really stack them up to make any noticeable progress. Especially if they've already got a solid base of lifting, which I would assume most do by the time they at least make the A. 

Plus you gotta take into consideration that these are generally all guys in their early 20s who probably care more about maintaining their abs for the offseason than trying to EAT BIG and up their squat numbers, which is part of the struggle too.

 

Edited July 8 by B1GKappa97

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Plus you gotta take into consideration that these are generally all guys in their early 20s who probably care more about maintaining their abs for the offseason than trying to EAT BIG and up their squat numbers, which is part of the struggle too.

You've just made my point for me. There is no insistence that they bulk up. Rossi wasn't effective in the N until he paid attention and did it. Look what happened to Beckman. O'Rourke is the poster child for not doing this.