Article: What Does A Potential Marco Rossi Offer Sheet Look Like?

[Kalisha Turnipseed]

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[OldDutchChip]

wasn't Aho drafted by Canes.....so why would they send out draft pick comp to Canadiens? 🤔

 

[SkolWild73]

Nobody is offering Rossi $7M or more PLUS 7 years.  If they do that, the compensation goes up since the compensation is based off of 5 years.  A 7x7 contract would be 49/5 for compensation purposes, or $9.8M a year. That would bump teams up to two firsts, a second and a third

[mnfaninnc]

14 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

A 7x7 contract would be 49/5 for compensation purposes, or $9.8M a year. That would bump teams up to two firsts, a second and a third

It would be nice if you got a GM to do that who wasn't aware of the rule and we can say thank you very much!

[mnfaninnc]

Kalisha has got some editing to do. She blew the Aho compensation and the Broberg/Holloway compensation. Aho got nothing changed since it was matched. It was the Blues sending the Oilers picks, not the other way around. 

Quote

The Wild should sign Rossi to avoid an offer sheet. They can't let Rossi go for compensation picks and end up with a hole at center to start the season. Aho, Kotkaniemi, and Holloway signed their offer sheets in August. Guerin has less than a month to take action on extending Rossi; otherwise, a team will offer him a qualifying offer sheet by the beginning of August. 

Guerin is prepared for the unexpected, but is he willing to pay the price? 

This is the part where I think Kalisha is dead wrong. Honestly, I think Guerin is welcoming an offersheet. I think he has already taken 1 shot across the bow saying he will match, in Guerinspeak it meant, if you want him, it had better be a really good offer.

I believe Guerin will match anything up to $7,020,113 aav, and will start thinking about compensation if it goes higher. I believe Guerin has already gauged the league in what they will offer, and has concluded that Rossi is not getting offersheeted. I think he's ready to play the long game here. 

To get to this conclusion, I've got to make a couple of assumptions: 1) that Rossi has actually been shopped this offseason, and 2) that Guerin believes that nothing is coming in over the above amount. He may not want to give $7 aav, but he is prepared to do it if necessary because a 1, 3 in next year's draft is simply not enough compensation. 

We saw how Carolina was willing to offersheet Miller and Bouchard, so much so that the Oilers took Bouchard out of the equation. Instead of offersheeting Miller, Tlusky and Drury came to a trade that was pretty close to what an offersheet compensation would be. 

We also saw in the Aho/Kotkaniemi saga that Waddell remembered what Montreal had done to him with Aho, and really stuck it to them with Kotkaniemi. Carolina's 1st was in the high 20s. 

The key thing we can take from all of these offersheets was, to be successful in obtaining the player, the team you are offersheeting must be in cap trouble. Carolina wasn't and quickly matched. Aho was also a much more established player at the time than Rossi is now. 

If Chicago is offering over $7,020,113, I'm simply taking the compensation and each game I play Chicago, I'm hitting their stars like it's a playoff game. Send Bedard out for some games with a heavy hit and Chicago's season tanks. As things stand now, neither Bedard nor Rossi are big enough to absorb the big hits. And, please, I'm not advocating something like Hartman did to Stutzle, I'm saying heavy clean hits, like the one Reeves put on Hronek a few years back.

Even with Rossi, I would not expect Chicago to get out of the bottom 10 teams in the league this coming season. Having that pick could change the direction of this franchise. 

[goenzoy]

2 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

Nobody is offering Rossi $7M or more PLUS 7 years.  If they do that, the compensation goes up since the compensation is based off of 5 years.  A 7x7 contract would be 49/5 for compensation purposes, or $9.8M a year. That would bump teams up to two firsts, a second and a third

Totally agree there is no way we will see 7 year offersheet .But it is possible that we will see a 3 year or one year sheet similar to Kotkaniemi but with 7.0AAV instead of 6.1 like in the past 

But also a trade particuarly a 3 way deal is still a suitable option 

[Burnt Toast]

With the lack of  available players in FA this year we can take solace in the Wild having enough cap room to respond to potential poachers gunning for Rossi. Personally I don’t think an offer sheet is incoming but it never hurts to be prepared. I do have to add if said offer sheet does hit the Wild FO I do expect fireworks. 

[fikifuka]

I really think BG is in a bad position:

1. If we all agree that MIN needs an additional top 2 C to EE, Hartman, Yurov and Sturm if they want to compete for the POs then its Rossi or an ever better = more expensive guy. And every GM knows that. 

2. If the actual roster (no Rossi, no nothing) doesn't improve and MIN is going to miss the PO, BG is history in Nov. And he knows.

3. So BG has exactly 3 options with around 11 M capspace available: a) Either manage a Rossi + xyz for a top Center trade ("bigger! taller! grittier!) . Not so easy, because every team wants center-depth and shys away from trading top-centers. And why should they when cap is increasing heavily? I guess this is the reason why no trade happened yet. b) Wait and match. If R is cool, and I would recommend, he waits untill the season starts or even longer and doesn't sign anything below 7 M/5 years. Time is on his side, not Guerins. c) R waits and finally signs 7/5 or above and G doesnt match. Then he'll have no center or make an expensive late panic trade. 

4. That means: In any case he will have to pay more than he wants (5/5) and declared in public. 

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, fikifuka said:

I really think BG is in a bad position:

1. If we all agree that MIN needs an additional top 2 C to EE, Hartman, Yurov and Sturm if they want to compete for the POs then its Rossi or an ever better = more expensive guy. And every GM knows that. 

2. If the actual roster (no Rossi, no nothing) doesn't improve and MIN is going to miss the PO, BG is history in Nov. And he knows.

3. So BG has exactly 3 options with around 11 M capspace available: a) Either manage a Rossi + xyz for a top Center trade ("bigger! taller! grittier!) . Not so easy, because every team wants center-depth and shys away from trading top-centers. And why should they when cap is increasing heavily? I guess this is the reason why no trade happened yet. b) Wait and match. If R is cool, and I would recommend, he waits untill the season starts or even longer and doesn't sign anything below 7 M/5 years. Time is on his side, not Guerins. c) R waits and finally signs 7/5 or above and G doesnt match. Then he'll have no center or make an expensive late panic trade. 

4. That means: In any case he will have to pay more than he wants (5/5) and declared in public. 

on the contrary, i think Billy is doing just fine 

1. We are returning a team that when healthy was #1 team in the league - unless another injury curse hits us - we should be in the top 3 of the central again

2. We have two wild cards in Yurov and Zeev - who are not asked to be stars, but if at least one is who he is promised to be - then look out

3. Gus should be on top of his game from beginning and ready to deliver a Vezina - there is a shit load of $ riding on it for him - so he'll be ready

4. i know we are all sad that we didn't sign Boeser and Nelson and Ehlers, but we were smart at waiting...there will always be someone available and we are positioning ourselves to be main players at the table. Still not a fan of Vlady - but i came around on him and hope he kicks ass!

5. Rossi will be here this year. Likely won't finish the year (but who knows) but it would be foolish for him to just hold out. He'll get his contract, likely a1 year at 5.5 as Bill is a fair guy (most of the time) and he'll play. Like minnyfaninnc said - he waits - his spot is taken by Yurov and he'll be in KHL very soon. He cannot just wait. 

🍻

[Burnt Toast]

2 hours ago, fikifuka said:

In any case he will have to pay more than he wants (5/5)

BG has enough cap space to give a little on this number. The negotiations ongoing with Rossi are happening all over the league. There’s something like 7+ players filing for arbitration right now. I’m thinking the Rossi deal comes in somewhere around $6M. Meanwhile Rossi’s agent is doing normal agent things, shopping his client around the NHL. As a fan it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride with MR from the beginning. I kept hoping for the best as Rossi’s draft plus 1 year slipped by as he battled serious health issues. Next 19 NHL games where he got 1 assist. Then he shows up in Iowa as one of their most consistent and reliable forwards. From there he has a run at the Calder. This whole time he was a player I supported and believed in. I think Rossi is a mid tier 2C at a crossroads in his career. I think he’s earned a 3-5 year contract,  and dare I say, a prove it deal. That might not be fair but as an undersized player that’s the reality of the current NHL environment. I’m still 100% hoping for the best. 

[mnfaninnc]

5 hours ago, goenzoy said:

Totally agree there is no way we will see 7 year offersheet .But it is possible that we will see a 3 year or one year sheet similar to Kotkaniemi but with 7.0AAV instead of 6.1 like in the past 

This is easy, it will be matched. If it is $7,020,113 or higher, the Wild will consider the compensation depending upon which team offers it. 

Montreal was already losing a center because of cap problems. They didn't want to lose Kotkaniemi too. They felt like he was probably worth an extension around $3m for a bridge deal. This would have put them in a terrible position to match the $6.1m. The same thing with the Oilers, they didn't have money, and they had a brand new GM who wasn't familiar with everyone yet. Armstrong didn't like Bowman and he did like Holland. It was a bit personal for him, as it was for the Canes to go after Kotkaniemi. 

The successful offersheets happen when the team that has the player offersheeted cannot match right away. They have 1 week to get their affairs in order, and most GMs aren't able to move that quickly when it catches them by surprise. Guerin may grumble a lot if he has to pay Rossi $7m, even if it's short term, but he's prepared to fend off the thieves. He can concentrate on resigning Kaprizov (which I think is orally done right now) and just wait on Rossi. 

If you're looking for evidence as to why no offersheet is coming, it is because the teams interested in Rossi aren't coming up with offers at a baseline of a 2026 1, 2, 3. When Carolina traded for Miller, they came up with something similar. If Rossi were being offersheeted, there already would have been chatter for a 1st rounder, roster player and prospect. Vancouver merely offered #15 in this draft, which was a big loser had we taken it and not nearly enough compensation. 

Maybe, just maybe, Guerin has sent out signals that Rossi's for sale trying to get another GM to take him. Guerin seems to know that Rossi is valuable and he's not trying to sell him off like some counterfeit jewelry. I applaud that he has said no up to this point. 

 

[mnfaninnc]

One other point to make here, is if the Wild match a $7m offersheet from another team, he does become an RFA the year after....but, his QO is somewhere around $7.7m. Then things get interesting.

[mnfaninnc]

3 hours ago, fikifuka said:

2. If the actual roster (no Rossi, no nothing) doesn't improve and MIN is going to miss the PO, BG is history in Nov. And he knows.

If Guerin has Kaprizov inked to a deal he's safe.

3 hours ago, fikifuka said:

b) Wait and match. If R is cool, and I would recommend, he waits untill the season starts or even longer and doesn't sign anything below 7 M/5 years. Time is on his side, not Guerins.

This is a completely false statement. Time is definitely on Guerin's side in this situation because Rossi has no leverage without an offersheet. If you are his agent recommending this you will be very embarrassed when this is over. If there's no offersheet, there's no incentive for Guerin to pay more than his QO which is a little over $1m. It may be more if bonuses count when making the QO. Guerin can wait until the season starts. Guerin can wait past December. Guerin can wait until next year with the same QO as this year and we try all over again. 

 

3 hours ago, fikifuka said:

c) R waits and finally signs 7/5 or above and G doesnt match. Then he'll have no center or make an expensive late panic trade. 

Let's just say Guerin doesn't match, though he would if it was under $7,020,113. He takes the compensation of a 1, 2, 3 in next year's draft. Yurov gets the opportunity of a lifetime, and Guerin doesn't panic, he simply plays the kids. This year is not a guarantee of "competitive." This year is the shift to "contender." It may come with some bumps in the road due to all the rookies on the team. Contender status is not promised for '25-26. 

4 hours ago, fikifuka said:

4. That means: In any case he will have to pay more than he wants (5/5) and declared in public.

Why? Guerin's got a full house and Rossi is sitting across the table from him with a pair of deuces. He really has no leverage outside of an offersheet. If you're agreeing with Enzoy that he head to Switzerland to play, he has done nothing but hurt himself. If he sits out training camp this is the same result. 

Rossi might make more money in the long run going this direction, but he will alienate himself from his teammates. They expect him beefier and on time to camp. A contract squabble for a player without even having arbitration rights is frowned upon by the team. 5 x $5m is what Guerin wanted him to play for. This may be a 1 year deal at <$5m to get him here on time. Next season he can present his case to an arbitrator. I suspect his case will be stronger with another year under his belt. Right now, his case is extremely weak.

[FredJohnson]

18 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

One other point to make here, is if the Wild match a $7m offersheet from another team, he does become an RFA the year after....but, his QO is somewhere around $7.7m. Then things get interesting.

And Rossi has to be retained for the whole season with the offer match…he can’t be traded until next offseason.

Edited 7 hours ago by FredJohnson

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

3. Gus should be on top of his game from beginning and ready to deliver a Vezina - there is a shit load of $ riding on it for him - so he'll be ready

I still have an uneasy feeling about Goose. Goalies are simply weird and there is a case for some goalies to be every other year goalies. Goose is really an average 'tender playing behind a stifling defense. He's not much different from his Ottawa days where they seemed allergic to defense. 

But, he does have hot streaks where he looks really good. So, what happened 2 seasons ago? It could be that Goose had to adapt to his new kid, a 1st born. Or, it could be that he didn't really come back to camp in excellent shape. Or it could be with the buyouts, every player on the team had extra pressure on them to perform. 

I'm thinking it might have been adaption to the kid, but I'm looking out for he's an every other year goalie. This is why I would not extend him just yet. This question needs to be answered. 

[mnfaninnc]

2 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

5. Rossi will be here this year. Likely won't finish the year (but who knows) but it would be foolish for him to just hold out. He'll get his contract, likely a1 year at 5.5 as Bill is a fair guy (most of the time) and he'll play. Like minnyfaninnc said - he waits - his spot is taken by Yurov and he'll be in KHL very soon. He cannot just wait. 

I think you're off on the price a little here, but the conclusion is spot on: He cannot just wait. That's the curse for being short, you have to play with a chip on your shoulder. 

He'll have another opportunity to maybe center line 1. Nobody cares how much he gets paid if he's doing that, and if he's successful at it, the money will come. He should be more worried about getting to 195 and having elite edges than the dollars next year. Fact is, I'd kind of like to see what a pissed off Rossi can do in a season. Break that 60 point barrier again and after doing so stare up at the GM and give him the money sign. Personally, I think Guerin would like that.

[OldDutchChip]

10 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I still have an uneasy feeling about Goose. Goalies are simply weird and there is a case for some goalies to be every other year goalies. Goose is really an average 'tender playing behind a stifling defense. He's not much different from his Ottawa days where they seemed allergic to defense. 

But, he does have hot streaks where he looks really good. So, what happened 2 seasons ago? It could be that Goose had to adapt to his new kid, a 1st born. Or, it could be that he didn't really come back to camp in excellent shape. Or it could be with the buyouts, every player on the team had extra pressure on them to perform. 

I'm thinking it might have been adaption to the kid, but I'm looking out for he's an every other year goalie. This is why I would not extend him just yet. This question needs to be answered. 

goalies, as we all know, are weird. if you tell me - (even if the price was the same) - bob vs gus - i'd pick gus. i like his calm demeanor (confidence/structure) play, and this past year he did not crumble much. imagine Gus w FL.....he'd be a vezina winner (not to downplay Bob - but let's be real - he wasn't the reason they won).

i'm happy w Gus, but agree being a bit cautious, but that's the norm with goalies. every goalie out there has now a question mark.....seriously there is no sure goalie anymore. vasy is mortal now and the rest are extremely volatile in the PO when it matters. Gus is just as good as any others 🙂

 

[OldDutchChip]

13 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I think you're off on the price a little here, but the conclusion is spot on: He cannot just wait. That's the curse for being short, you have to play with a chip on your shoulder. 

He'll have another opportunity to maybe center line 1. Nobody cares how much he gets paid if he's doing that, and if he's successful at it, the money will come. He should be more worried about getting to 195 and having elite edges than the dollars next year. Fact is, I'd kind of like to see what a pissed off Rossi can do in a season. Break that 60 point barrier again and after doing so stare up at the GM and give him the money sign. Personally, I think Guerin would like that.

exactly - you sign the short-term, come in ready, play in the top 6 - bank on yourself. if you bring it and play with Kap - you are a shoe in for at least 60 pts and bigger pay off. totally agree with your last thought - make Billy sign you to what you think you are worth. if you deliver and become 10MM player - i think everyone (including Bill) will love that. let's see what you got Rossi.

[Burnt Toast]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

not to downplay Bob - but let's be real - he wasn't the reason they won).

Bob played up. #1 rated 2025 playoff goalie stats wise .914% and I’d throw in the eye test. His close out game against the Oiler’s is a master class. .966 %. The Panthers have a fantastic team but they also had the best playoff goalie in the world this year. Looking towards the future I’m on the Gus Bus too, and I’m looking forward for a ride on a long playoff run. 

[Pablo]

The blackhawks will probs do a 5 yr 40M offer. Guerin will likely match it and trade Rossi to someone else 2 yrs from now when Rossi is a point per game player and $8M AAV is looking like a bargain. Guerin will get a haul in the trade. 

[OldDutchChip]

8 minutes ago, Burnt Toast said:

Bob played up. #1 rated 2025 playoff goalie stats wise .914% and I’d throw in the eye test. His close out game against the Oiler’s is a master class. .966 %. The Panthers have a fantastic team but they also had the best playoff goalie in the world this year. Looking towards the future I’m on the Gus Bus too, and I’m looking forward for a ride on a long playoff run. 

yeah those are great numbers. and b2b2b SC G speaks for itself. but it's nice when you have such a monster of a team in front of you. 

but we are coming! 🍻