Article: Guerin Ignored the Noise and Had A Smart Offseason

[Luke Sims]

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[B1GKappa97]

THANKS FOR RUINING CHRISTMAS CRAIG!!! 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Rather than Christmas season, it felt more like tax return season. Suddenly Guerin has some money to play with and I'm fine with him waiting for a great deal rather than blowing it all right away on a shiny new toy at full price.

[Dean]

I’m happy Fred is gone. Vlad hasn’t played good hockey in years. We were told top six center and scoring winger. .kappy isn’t signed and who knows what’s up with Rossi .Its hard to see how this was a smart offseason when Billy devalued his top prospect and can’t get squat for him 

is Billy really going to match any offer sheet ? No. Like Russo said there could  be a number to high for Billy to match  so that gives  Judd a chance to draft 2-3 more undersized players the rest of leauge won’t trade for. If Billy does match an offer sheet, the way I understand it he can’t trade Rossi for a year. There’s your trade deadline big deal out the window. If a team is smart they could sign Rossi to one year deal. We could match but wouldn’t be able to trade . Rossi would then walk into free agency the next year. Like Russo said Rossi s agent isn’t interested in a cheap deal so Billy can then trade him on a good contract. 
    Billy still hasn’t addressed top 6 center or a real scoring winger for years to come. He bought time. He tells a bunch of lies then makes excuses. He’s got a pocket full of money and a bunch of excuses. Next year free agency will be the same. We are not a destination. So to believe another year is what we need is ridiculous.  We need a draft team to draft better and a gm that knows how to make trades because no one wants to come here via free agency. 
    Billy and smart shouldn’t be in same sentence. 

[SkolWild73]

10 minutes ago, Dean said:

I’m happy Fred is gone. Vlad hasn’t played good hockey in years. We were told top six center and scoring winger. .kappy isn’t signed and who knows what’s up with Rossi .Its hard to see how this was a smart offseason when Billy devalued his top prospect and can’t get squat for him 

is Billy really going to match any offer sheet ? No. Like Russo said there could  be a number to high for Billy to match  so that gives  Judd a chance to draft 2-3 more undersized players the rest of leauge won’t trade for. If Billy does match an offer sheet, the way I understand it he can’t trade Rossi for a year. There’s your trade deadline big deal out the window. If a team is smart they could sign Rossi to one year deal. We could match but wouldn’t be able to trade . Rossi would then walk into free agency the next year. Like Russo said Rossi s agent isn’t interested in a cheap deal so Billy can then trade him on a good contract. 
    Billy still hasn’t addressed top 6 center or a real scoring winger for years to come. He bought time. He tells a bunch of lies then makes excuses. He’s got a pocket full of money and a bunch of excuses. Next year free agency will be the same. We are not a destination. So to believe another year is what we need is ridiculous.  We need a draft team to draft better and a gm that knows how to make trades because no one wants to come here via free agency. 
    Billy and smart shouldn’t be in same sentence. 

So, what top 6 center, or real scoring winger was available?  No legitimate top 6 centers were available, Boeser was offered his contract before free agency opened, and Ehlers wants to play in a warmer climate.  

Also, even if Rossi were to sign a one-year deal, he would still be a RFA next year with us still controlling his rights.

[Citizen Strife]

Maybe just maybe, they want to save money for their own guys (Jiricek's ELC is up in a year), and have money left over.  Weird concept for a Wild team.

I do not expect any major trade or free agent to WANT to sign here (Boeser was the only one it seems).  The Wild has to win something or show promise in the regular season before anyone will bother.  No sense spending money no one wants expect our own players.

 

[mnfaninnc]

Maybe Christmas morning wasn't referring to free agents. Maybe Christmas morning was referring to shiny new ELC guys! Possibly having 5 rookies on the roster would certainly change up the team. That's between 20-25% of the roster. That's a lot of change. Factor in Sturm and Tarasenko and we've got a lot of turnover. 

It just doesn't seem like we've let that many guys go, though.

[IllicitFive]

The free agency class was weak, most of who we dreamt of getting were off the market before the opening bell. Where are people getting the idea we were promised a top 6 winger and a scoring center? I think those were the lies we told ourselves but I could be wrong. Going into the season with cap flexibility will be a big change for them this year, opens up the chances to make trades in season for someone worth while.

As far as no deal for Kap or Rossi yet, its summer, these things take time, plus Vlad has said Kap was the one who convinced him to waive his NTC to come here, that should mean something. When it comes to Rossi, who knows what he is asking, maybe its a 7 year 8+ mil contract which would give me pause. If it is known that he is available and they aren't getting decent offers then for sure hold onto him and see if anyone changes their mind, or he earns a larger new contract from the wild. I get its already July 3rd and no Kap or Rossi moves which is wild, I mean its been 2 whole days. Do we know where Kap is today? I am guessing that kind of signing would want to be done in person.

Starting next year, contracts start to fall off opening a lot more money, yes new contracts for Kap and others. Lets say Kap gets 15/year, thats only 6mil more a year, that is offset by losing Zucc, Vlad, NoJo and Bogo, which opens up 11+ mil. 2 years, Hartman, Spurge, and Sturm for another 13.5 mil opened. The hope is a couple young guys step up on cheep contracts to take spots then fill in with big spending on high end guys. Maybe get a few good new contracts like Boldy for 7/yr or Ek for 5.25/year. Craig had poor marketing calling this Christmas, because that wasn't possible, BUT, it does open up the window to shake the team up and make real changes. Pie in the sky, a lot of prospects hit and we have massive trade ammo to go get a Brady Tkachuk or Rantanen style player. Perhaps its a slow burn Christmas.

[LarryOg]

With the absolute bottom of the barrel options available in FA, Im glad Guerin chose to sit on his hands. Overpaying for a guy like Boeser would have been a huge disappointment. Especially since he doesnt really put up much more points than rossi, and is worse in the defensive end. 

Im usually critical of Billy, but its not his fault that there were no good players going into FA this year.

[ArizonaWildFan]

Now that most of the decent FA's are signed, teams will stop looking at their wish lists and moving on to their reality lists.

Teams like the Penguins, who have too many forwards under contract now, are going to have to make some moves. Rust and Rakell have been talked about getting moved but the right deal hasn't materialized.

This is the time that I hope Silly G. doesn't do something stupid just because there's a potential deal to be had. I hope he sticks to the priorities and gets Kaprizov signed first and foremost.

[Beast]

How is it noise if the “Christmas” crap was coming from people within the organization?

He wanted it to be Christmas.  He just bungled it.

What will the excuse be next year when he can’t offload players that he devalued for top trade capital, and no high end free agents want to play in this endless purgatory.

Can we stop pretending the salary cap is the real limitation?  Because every time I look up Vegas is bringing on another $10M+ contract, among others.  There’s ways of Billy was smart enough to know how to use them.

The thing that irritates people is that clearly this wasn’t the plan.  They wanted to rebuild this team, but couldn’t execute it.  If they couldn’t make something happen this year, after telling fans for 5 years to wait for this summer (they had years to plan), then can they ever make anything happen?

If they would’ve kept their mouths shut and not promised their fan base the world, it wouldn’t sting as much for many.  Now, we have to watch another year of garbage hockey while listening to their promises for the future.

[greg]

The moves thus far are very vanilla and don't make us any better than last year.  Imagine that a pro team in minnesota making promises to fans to build championship teams.  And here we sit again.  Wild are going to be telling us to be patient again.  It's the same old story year after year yet teams in the "hockey hotbeds" of Tampa Bay,  Florida, Dallas are able to get quality players.  I too am glad he didn't just throw money at players and get junk.  He's already done that with many of his previous signings.

[B1GKappa97]

4 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

Maybe just maybe, they want to save money for their own guys (Jiricek's ELC is up in a year), and have money left over.  Weird concept for a Wild team.

I do not expect any major trade or free agent to WANT to sign here (Boeser was the only one it seems).  The Wild has to win something or show promise in the regular season before anyone will bother.  No sense spending money no one wants expect our own players.

 

I don't think that's it. They have structured the veteran contracts in a way that the ELC guys can easily have the vet cap-hits rolled into their extension without disrupting much. 

[Citizen Strife]

Some people in chat proving yet again they won't be happy with anything 😏

[mnfaninnc]

I'm reading nationally how Detroit is trying to upgrade their defense. They're looking for a top 4 guy, hopefully with an RHS. They've got $12m to spend. 

For me, this looks like a great opportunity and fit for Jared Spurgeon. He plays behind Seider on the 2nd pairing, and, the Red Wings would backfill the future with some RHS guys not ready yet. 

Nate Danielson is the guy I'd be targeting, who could be an important piece in Detroit's future lineup. However, the fans are growing restless in Detroit, and Spurgeon is just the guy whose steady play and leadership can get that team there. 

And, who would we backfill with? Jiricek. Toss him in there. Danielson can help the forward group as he's a center but may need another year in the A. 

For me, it's time for new leadership, new jerseys and the new young puppies to start playing. I'd prefer Ek to take over, but could see Kaprizov wearing the K.  

[MacGyver]

By the time the "Christmas in July" announcement was made most teams front office had most likely projected a weak UFA market already. The only noise Guerin ignored was his own and that of his owner. The fans got played again. 

Hockey is now mostly analytics and projections. Is there no one left in the front office paying attention to these things or has Guerin bullied them all out because only he can be the smartest guy in the room. 

[BillieGismylover]

8 hours ago, Dean said:

I’m happy Fred is gone. Vlad hasn’t played good hockey in years. We were told top six center and scoring winger. .kappy isn’t signed and who knows what’s up with Rossi .Its hard to see how this was a smart offseason when Billy devalued his top prospect and can’t get squat for him 

is Billy really going to match any offer sheet ? No. Like Russo said there could  be a number to high for Billy to match  so that gives  Judd a chance to draft 2-3 more undersized players the rest of leauge won’t trade for. If Billy does match an offer sheet, the way I understand it he can’t trade Rossi for a year. There’s your trade deadline big deal out the window. If a team is smart they could sign Rossi to one year deal. We could match but wouldn’t be able to trade . Rossi would then walk into free agency the next year. Like Russo said Rossi s agent isn’t interested in a cheap deal so Billy can then trade him on a good contract. 
    Billy still hasn’t addressed top 6 center or a real scoring winger for years to come. He bought time. He tells a bunch of lies then makes excuses. He’s got a pocket full of money and a bunch of excuses. Next year free agency will be the same. We are not a destination. So to believe another year is what we need is ridiculous.  We need a draft team to draft better and a gm that knows how to make trades because no one wants to come here via free agency. 
    Billy and smart shouldn’t be in same sentence. 

I agree with your take on the Rossi situation. But what top 6 center would you have liked Bill to sign??? 

[mnhockeyfan03]

4 minutes ago, BillieGismylover said:

I agree with your take on the Rossi situation. But what top 6 center would you have liked Bill to sign??? 

Would feel a lot better about things if Billy got jack roslovic for $4mm and also signed Kuznetsov for $3mm then we would be deep at center and have options.  Then would trade Rossi and Spurgeon to Detroit for Danielson and a Pick. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

22 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

So, what top 6 center, or real scoring winger was available?  No legitimate top 6 centers were available, Boeser was offered his contract before free agency opened, and Ehlers wants to play in a warmer climate.  

Looks like Ehlers went to Carolina for $8.5M. Might be okay for Carolina, but that's more than most wanted to give him.

Brent Burns to Colorado for $1M? That's a bit surprising, but I'm not upset he's not joining the Wild. He's 40 years old and the Wild need their young defensemen to get playing time.

Also looks like Winnipeg replaced Ehlers with Nyquist at $3.25M...

Edited 4 hours ago by Imyourhuckleberry

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Also thought this was interesting:

Marat Khusnutdinov has signed a 2 year, $1,850,000 contract with a cap hit of $925,000 per season, playing for the Boston Bruins.

Justin Brazeau has signed a 2 year, $3,000,000 contract with a cap hit of $1,500,000 per season, playing for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

[TCMooch]

I’m not a fan of Billy G but I think he’s played it smart and didn’t spend money just to spend money. Good on him

[FredJohnson]

Good article, Luke.

Guerin Ignored the Noise

But GMBG and OCL stoked the flames.

[mnfaninnc]

On 7/3/2025 at 12:23 PM, Dean said:

is Billy really going to match any offer sheet ? No. Like Russo said there could  be a number to high for Billy to match  so that gives  Judd a chance to draft 2-3 more undersized players the rest of leauge won’t trade for. If Billy does match an offer sheet, the way I understand it he can’t trade Rossi for a year. There’s your trade deadline big deal out the window. If a team is smart they could sign Rossi to one year deal. We could match but wouldn’t be able to trade . Rossi would then walk into free agency the next year.

Will Guerin match any offer? No, he'll likely match any offer up to a 1, 2, 3 from weak teams. 

If another team offersheets Rossi to a 1 year deal, that number had better be pretty high, or Guerin just matches. Then, we are right back to now, where Rossi is an RFA (not a UFA as inferred). 

If you're trying the 1 year deal, like the Canes tried with Kotkaniemi, and then sign the player longterm to a more reasonable deal, you're still looking at compensation being 1, 2, 3 in 2026 or even higher. I just don't think that Rossi is good enough to garner such an offer. 

In Guerinspeak, we will match any offer really means that the Wild will match any offer unless you're giving up a lot of compensation. If you want to give me your next to 1st rounders, you've got my attention. If you want to give me next seasons 1, 2, 3, you've also got my attention. If you're going to give me your next year's 1, 3, well, I'll most likely match. 

So, what Guerin is really saying to those other GMs out there is you're offer had better be pretty high or you just wasted your time and pissed me off. There will be NO soup for you!

Precedence? See Montreal's offer for Aho. Aho signed a medium sized offersheet from Montreal only to have Waddell simply match and target Montreal later. He did this with a short term high dollar deal when Montreal couldn't financially match it. He got the player and Montreal also lost another center in UFA. 

The Oilers traded out GMs last season and were hard against the cap. St. Louis swooped in and stole 2 of their players, mainly because Army didn't like Bowman. Bowman couldn't get things accomplished in a week and had to let both guys go. 

The Wild are in the position of the Canes right now. They've got plenty of money to match. This is why I don't think other GMs will take the chance to piss off Guerin and not accomplish anything. Even within divisions, GMs try not to piss off their division rival GMs because then it becomes personal. While 5 teams in the central might have the ammo to come get Rossi, they might get matched and have only accomplished pissing the other guy off.