Article: Wild Prepared to Match Marco Rossi Offer Sheet

[Thomas Williams]

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[Pewterschmidt]

Is announcing we’ll match any offer a strategy to tell the league to not bother?

[B1GKappa97]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Is announcing we’ll match any offer a strategy to tell the league to not bother?

100% 

Which means we likely get Rossi on a somewhat bargain cap-hit for his 5-year deal. Which, ironically, makes him easier to trade in the future! 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

It's different than the media narrative up to this point, but Wild prepared to match offer sheets is expected for those really considering all factors in the situation. Guerin has been consistent in saying he likes Rossi, they are just looking at different contract values right now.

The only chance the Wild would consider letting Rossi go for no players being returned is if the price gets well above the $7M mark and is delivering more than 2 picks in return, but if other teams valued Rossi at that price point, then I imagine the Wild would have received genuinely strong trade offers from interested teams prior to July 1st.

Chances aren't bad that Rossi will eventually return to center some skilled forwards for the Wild in the top 6. Hard to say which combinations Hynes will like best with him between Zuccarello, Tarasenko, Boldy or Kaprizov.

I could see Yurov between Foligno and Hartman with Sturm centering Ohgren and Trenin. Johansson in the ProssBox. Looks like they also added Tyler Pitlick to play in Iowa and help with depth.

[Pewterschmidt]

23 minutes ago, B1GKappa97 said:

100% 

Which means we likely get Rossi on a somewhat bargain cap-hit for his 5-year deal. Which, ironically, makes him easier to trade in the future! 

if this happens (shortish term with trade optionality) that will at least feel like a stocking stuffer

#thatswhatshesaid

[B1GKappa97]

19 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Looks like they also added Tyler Pitlick to play in Iowa and help with depth.

yeah but can he get a hatty in his debut NHL game???

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

yeah but can he get a hatty in his debut NHL game???

Perhaps if they team him up on a line with Ryan Hartman, who assisted on every goal in Rem Pitlick's natural hattrick against Seattle 11.13.21.

Interesting side note, Marcus Johansson actually scored against the Wild that game in the one season he played a portion of the year for Seattle.

[MrCheatachu]

2 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

100% 

Which means we likely get Rossi on a somewhat bargain cap-hit for his 5-year deal. Which, ironically, makes him easier to trade in the future! 

3 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Is announcing we’ll match any offer a strategy to tell the league to not bother?

I think it's probably a warning shot to Rossi's agent too.

Basically, telling them that the proposed returns when they were shopping Rossi werent a whole lot of teams looking to give up assets let a lone the the 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick in the deeper 2026 draft that would be the return for the $7M number that Rossi's side is rumored to want.

It's basically telling Rossi's team that what other teams are willing to give up for him is significantly less than what they'd have to give up on an offersheet situation.

Whatever tactic from the Flyers side to say MN was asking for Forrester OR a 1st round pick (and PHI said no) suggests that the market aint looking to go anywhere near $7M on Rossi, even the $4.6-$7M bucket (1st & 3rd) seems to be a stretch.

[mnhockeyfan03]

I am going to call BS on what Billy said.  I don’t think they match an offer sheet.  If they do they can’t trade Rossi for a year.  I think Billy’s plan is to do a short term bridge for Rossi and trade him this offseason or play him in top 2 lines to prop up his stats and move him at the trade deadline next year.  I think an off sheet scares Billy as this screws up his plan. Rossi is not in the Wilds long term plans.  I just think Billy has put himself in a corner and overvalued a player and now being caught with his pants down so now he is scrambling to think of a new creative way to move him.  I think an offer sheet is good.  Take the pics and use them with the extra cap space to get a 1C at the deadline.  Also get Kuznetsov on the team now.  Have Kap make a call. 

[MNCountryLife]

18 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

play him in top 2 lines to prop up his stats and move him at the trade deadline next year.

I think Hynes is in charge of the lineup card and he will ice whatever players he feels gives him the best chance to win.  Any other way to put a team on the ice would cause the coach to lose the respect from the players.  

[goenzoy]

4 hours ago, B1GKappa97 said:

100% 

Which means we likely get Rossi on a somewhat bargain cap-hit for his 5-year deal. Which, ironically, makes him easier to trade in the future! 

No there is no way Rossi will  sign a 5 year deal . Also offer sheet even they happen will come in late.So it is very unlikely that we will see any contract before Ausgust 

[MrCheatachu]

49 minutes ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

I am going to call BS on what Billy said.  I don’t think they match an offer sheet.  If they do they can’t trade Rossi for a year.

I dont think that comes into play here...

1. I think SillyG has shopped Rossi around and realized that nobody is willing to give up a significant number of assets given his contract demands.

2. Rossi’s camp have rejected (rumored) $5Mx5 and $6Mx2 and in both cases have suggested they want significantly more, guessing $7x7.  Remember, with an offer sheet, the AAV for contracts is based on a 5 year mark.  Meaning for purpose of offer sheet compensation, a $7x7 looks like a $49M/5yrs = $9.8M aav which pushes into the 2x 1st round picks, 1x 2nd round pick, and a 3rd round pick.  

3. There are currently only 12 teams that could offersheet Rossi at above $7M aav, 14 teams above $9.36M Aav
4. $4.6-$7M is still a 1st and a 3rd, but I don't Rossi takes a 1 year term at this level, and I do think SillyG would match here.

So the most likely offersheet for Rossi would be <5 years and <$7M aav, which (see point 2) are really close to what the Wild have already offered...

[B1GKappa97]

19 minutes ago, goenzoy said:

No there is no way Rossi will  sign a 5 year deal . Also offer sheet even they happen will come in late.So it is very unlikely that we will see any contract before Ausgust 

Why wouldn't he? He's not eligble for UFA for 5 more years anyway. 

It makes more sense for him to sign for 5 years than anything less where the team still controls his contractual rights. 

[OldDutchChip]

6 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Is announcing we’ll match any offer a strategy to tell the league to not bother?

most of the league - Yes .... but not all

please take note - CHI or SJ or BOS or NASH - we do want your offer. Please send asap. We will not match. but gladly take your top 5 pick.

[FredJohnson]

That feels like a completely different narrative than the one we have heard of Rossi being in endless trade rumors, but maybe things have changed. The likely happenings up to this point is that the Wild are not getting the right players back they want in a Rossi trade, and all the potential upgrades at the position, are gone.

I wonder if playing Marco on the 4th line had an effect? (Sarcasm)

[goenzoy]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

Why wouldn't he? He's not eligble for UFA for 5 more years anyway. 

It makes more sense for him to sign for 5 years than anything less where the team still controls his contractual rights

Because the best way forward for Rossi would be a one or two year deal 

One year with 7 million or 2 with 6.5 . Even Boldy deal(7x7) is outdated now because this years UFA signing did show that latest next season 2026/27 6.5 or above as market rate for a 3rd line center . And Rossi is a 2nd center even with potential for a 1C. And with Yurov,Sturm,Tarasenko and a hopefully healthier Kaprisov he clearly can improve his point total somewhere between 70 and point per game . And that is 8 million AAV potential what will be normal 2C market rate 

[FredJohnson]

6 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Johansson in the ProssBox.

I’m not holding my breath. Dude is a stud. Look at this caterpillar on his throat!

[Imyourhuckleberry]

3 hours ago, goenzoy said:

One year with 7 million or 2 with 6.5 . Even Boldy deal(7x7) is outdated now because this years UFA signing did show that latest next season 2026/27 6.5 or above as market rate for a 3rd line center . And Rossi is a 2nd center even with potential for a 1C. And with Yurov,Sturm,Tarasenko and a hopefully healthier Kaprisov he clearly can improve his point total somewhere between 70 and point per game . And that is 8 million AAV potential what will be normal 2C market rate 

1 year would be more like $5M. He's not getting more than that if he's only wanting to sign for a single season. Then he'll just be restricted again next year.

I believe 4 years is the contract he would need to reach unrestricted free agency.

He won't get close to $7M without signing long-term, but they might consider exceeding $6M per year if he does get to a 4 or 5 year deal.

[B1GKappa97]

16 hours ago, goenzoy said:

Because the best way forward for Rossi would be a one or two year deal 

One year with 7 million or 2 with 6.5 . Even Boldy deal(7x7) is outdated now because this years UFA signing did show that latest next season 2026/27 6.5 or above as market rate for a 3rd line center . And Rossi is a 2nd center even with potential for a 1C. And with Yurov,Sturm,Tarasenko and a hopefully healthier Kaprisov he clearly can improve his point total somewhere between 70 and point per game . And that is 8 million AAV potential what will be normal 2C market rate 

Then he's still an RFA and under team control, who will just take him to arbitration another few seasons before finally trading him off. 

I mean if he wants to go through that process, I guess he could get an extra $500K to $1M from an arbitrator maybe? It'd be a pain in the ass to go through every offseason though. 

 

[B1GKappa97]

13 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

1 year would be more like $5M. He's not getting more than that if he's only wanting to sign for a single season. Then he'll just be restricted again next year.

I believe 4 years is the contract he would need to reach unrestricted free agency.

He won't get close to $7M without signing long-term, but they might consider exceeding $6M per year if he does get to a 4 or 5 year deal.

I think its 5 years no matter what, which is why Billy offered that to him.

Its either when they turn 27 as of June 30th or have 7 accrued seasons with 40+ games.

Rossi only has 2 years with 40+ games, so another 5 seasons are necessary there.

And since he has a September birthday, and is only 23 currently, he won't be able to hit the age-cap for UFA until he's about to turn 28, which is in another 5 seasons (counting this one.) 

 

[bean5302]

I'm not understanding why people are so interested in spinning this situation into some sort of Machiavelliann plot and conspiracy. The speculation has been around Guerin being a puppetmaster for the entire NHL. Every quote must have league-wide implications, each and every one of them speculating how it has tanked value in this or that way.

Guerin is on record as having offered Rossi a substantial contract. It's clear Rossi believe's he's worth more than the offer the Wild made; however, it's equally clear Guerin doesn't think Rossi is worth the rumored 7yr $50MM deal being sought.

Guerin has made it clear he would trade Rossi for the right package, but the Wild needed to land a replacement center in free agency before trading Rossi away for "just prospects" because the team is in win-now mode.

All of this makes sense.

There are too many theories which are catch-22's around here.

If Rossi is worth the 7yrs $50MM on the open market, Rossi will get that offer somewhere because teams want to get better. Not bidding because you don't think you will win? That's not a thing. Teams already know the Wild weren't willing to go to 7yrs $50MM so the Wild are not comfortable offering it now, either.

Teams will also not overbid to try and trick the Wild into picking up a bad contract. No GM in the league is competing against the "Minnesota Wild." Every team is competing against 31 other teams, and they're not willing to risk making a colossally bad financial decision just to try and goad Guerin into making the same bad financial decision. We're talking about crippling financial impacts here. What if this conspiracy team offers Rossi 7yrs $140MM? Is Guerin going to match? Obviously not.

All this entire scenario boils down to, in my mind, is Guerin and Rossi disagreeing what fair market value is for the center, and Guerin being willing to let the rest of the league set value because he believes Rossi is overestimating his market while Guerin is also willing to make a trade which makes the team better than it would be after signing Rossi at 7yrs $50MM.

It's just keeping options open and letting the market set value. Nothing so complicated.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, B1GKappa97 said:

And since he has a September birthday, and is only 23 currently, he won't be able to hit the age-cap for UFA until he's about to turn 28, which is in another 5 seasons (counting this one.) 

I think you're off on the math here.  Rossi will be about to turn 28 four years from now. He is about to turn 24 this September. He was born in 2001 and will turn 27 in 2028. He will be 27 in June of 2029, which would be 4 full seasons from now.

He will only have 6 seasons with 40+ games in the summer of 2029, but should be beyond the age limit where restricted free agency can apply.  It certainly seems unlikely he would sign a 3-year deal due to the situation you are indicating regarding his September birthday and the June 30th date they use for the rule.

[Will D. Ness]

Just now, bean5302 said:

I'm not understanding why people are so interested in spinning this situation into some sort of Machiavelliann plot and conspiracy.

This made me chuckle.  

[Imyourhuckleberry]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

If Rossi is worth the 7yrs $50MM on the open market, Rossi will get that offer somewhere because teams want to get better. Not bidding because you don't think you will win? That's not a thing.

It does seem to be a thing in the NHL.

Quote

• Current CBA: Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), only six offer sheets have been signed in the past 12 years.

When teams know the current team will match, it seems they are very unlikely to make the offer.  Since 1986, it's only happened 44 times, so barely more than 1 per season. Given the number of restricted free agents across the NHL each season, that number seems suspiciously low to not be a thing.

Other than that, I agree with the general sentiments of your comment.

[B1GKappa97]

7 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I think you're off on the math here.  Rossi will be about to turn 28 four years from now. He is about to turn 24 this September. He was born in 2001 and will turn 27 in 2028. He will be 27 in June of 2029, which would be 4 full seasons from now.

He will only have 6 seasons with 40+ games in the summer of 2029, but should be beyond the age limit where restricted free agency can apply.  It certainly seems unlikely he would sign a 3-year deal due to the situation you are indicating regarding his September birthday and the June 30th date they use for the rule.

4 years it is then.