Article: Offer Sheeting Marco Rossi Would Be A Win-Win For Minnesota's Central Division Rivals

[Scalptrash]

1 minute ago, SkolWild73 said:

I am sure they would.  But considering Marner had full control over where he went, and they settled on Roy, kind of shows Marner rally only wanted to go to Vegas, otherwise Toronto would have gotten a lot more in return from someone else

Yep, you can speculate too. Nobody knows but Marner and his agent. 

BTW, not sure why you're confused about what Tarasenko said, here it is:

 

[fikifuka]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Sure it will work. If no GM decides to offersheet Rossi, then Guerin has complete control over what he wants Rossi to play for next season. The QO is likely somewhere around $1.2m. Guerin can reach out for a 2 year bridge deal, or he can once again present 5 x $5m. 

With an offersheet, it is all about compensation for Guerin. If someone wants to give Rossi a 5 x $7m offersheet with some clauses, Guerin merely has to match it. I think for Rossi, if I'm in Guerin's shoes, a 1, 3 in next year's draft is too low, so, since I have the money, I simply match.

What got Edmonton into trouble last season was they didn't have match money on either of their candidates. St. Louis took advantage of a GM turnover, never really liked Stan Bowman in the first place, and took advantage of their situation. 

When Montreal tried to do it to Carolina, Waddell said thank you very much to Montreal, matched, and went on summer vacation. He then remembered it and crafted a 2 year deal outside of Montreal's range on Kotkaniemi and got him, later signing him for less long term. 

So, if 5 x $7m is market value for Rossi, why can't Guerin match that? He talks about salary structure, and then he's got a market oriented offer. He can go back, re-evaluate, and match no problem. 

Now, let's say that the team interested in Rossi goes to 5 x $7.5m which isn't that much of a boost. Now you're talking about a 1, 2,  3 in next year's draft. If I'm in Guerin's shoes, now you've got my attention. I will look up and down your roster and see what you have. I will have my analytics guys run simulations of us with and without Rossi, and the opposing team with him to project where they'll be in the standings. If I believe that's a top 10 selection coming my way in a deep draft where I can find someone decent in the 2nd round too, then I've got another 5 days to ponder what I want to do. 

Any team hoping to get Rossi must know that it's going to take $7.5mish to get Rossi over. If it's, say, Chicago, I take the compensation, probably in less than a week. If it's Utah, I'm looking at something middling around the mid teens. If it's Dallas, I'm thinking of matching,  as we're looking at a 1st somewhere around the late 20s. 

The thing is that nobody really gave Guerin much of a deal to move him. I think Guerin's expectation was going to a 1, 2, 3 scenario as a baseline for a deal, since he knows he can get that with an offersheet. It appears that nobody was willing to give him that compensation in a trade and I think he feels fairly secure that nobody will offersheet at that level. 

Of course it is a realistic scenario you're describing. It could pan out exactly like you said - or the complete opposite. Guerin, and Rossi too, are in the middle of a big gamble that could last the whole summer. So nothing is for sure, in my opinion. And G will sell his decision, whatever it will be, as the greatest thing he ever did anyway.

My bet still is that R gets an offer around 7 M/5 y and G will not match it - just because his ego doesn't allow it. Would be too difficult to explain after all the stuff he declared - to the team, Leipold, other GMs, the public in general. 

[SkolWild73]

10 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

Yep, you can speculate too. Nobody knows but Marner and his agent. 

BTW, not sure why you're confused about what Tarasenko said, here it is:

 

I listened to it.  No where did I hear him say he only talked to Kap after he signed. Every report says he talked to Kap before the trade and that helped him to waive his no trade clause.

 

and I am not really speculating on where Marner wanted to play.  It was out there for a week that is where he was going.  

Edited yesterday at 06:15 PM by SkolWild73

[Pewterschmidt]

30 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

I wonder if McDavid and Kaprizov are waiting for the other to sign first to see how high the money goes. 

Great point and now i can lower my blood pressure due to 97 not signing on July 1.  I think they're letting the market shake itself out first.

Edited yesterday at 06:15 PM by Pewterschmidt

[ArizonaWildFan]

1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

Click bait or reported fact who knows?

Watched the interview that local sports guys did via Zoom with Tarasenko from his home in Florida. He's saying all the right things. Hopefully his body can back then up this season.

[ArizonaWildFan]

1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

My question to  you guys is can the Wild over pay for Kaprizov?

I agree with you that the answer is yes. I would really like to see an extension in the four or five year range. Injuries should be considered by the Wild and the inability to become a contender should be considered by Kaprizov. Shorter term could be a win for both sides.

[Pewterschmidt]

14 minutes ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

Hopefully his body can back then up this season.

Hopefully his body can cash the checks his mouth be writin’

[mnfaninnc]

On 7/2/2025 at 2:07 PM, fikifuka said:

My bet still is that R gets an offer around 7 M/5 y and G will not match it - just because his ego doesn't allow it. Would be too difficult to explain after all the stuff he declared - to the team, Leipold, other GMs, the public in general. 

This is where we differ in our opinions. The 5 x $7m may indeed happen, but I believe for it to happen, it has to be at least the minimum of a 1, 2, 3 in 2026. That's strong enough compensation for Guerin to let him go. I simply don't think he can take a 1, 3. 

At this point, it is something about his ego to. He doesn't want to pay $7m, but he also doesn't want to be seen as a buffoon who gave Rossi away, and he really doesn't want to go backwards in his timeline. 

So, here's where I see it: 2/3 of these have Rossi going at $7.2m, 2/3 of these have him staying at $7m assuming that the $7.2m isn't coming from a team giving you picks in the 20s of a round (projected). So, what team will put in this offer where they aren't concerned about their 1, 2, 3 picks next year possibly being lottery picks? 

I do not see some team magically willing to commit to this. Rossi simply isn't good enough for that type of compensation. He is good enough for a 1, 3 compensation, but Guerin is likely to match that and grumble while doing it. 

But, if this is the route another team wants to go, they are most likely already calling Guerin for a trade that is less than the 1, 2, 3 compensation. I'm betting that the other teams did not like the contract demands of Rossi's agent either, and I do think he's a bit outside the ballpark with the offer. I think if Rossi has 1 more good year where he stays healthy and improves 7 x $7m is not out of reach.

[fikifuka]

The pretty fair solution could be: Trade or offer sheet 6,5/4 years (Rossis is eligible as an UFA not before 2029) with NTC, so that R is in control of his fate and BG can't play games if he matches. One other important point is that MIN needs one more good Center if R leaves but the Center-market is thin. They just can't plan the season with only EE, Hartman, Yurov, Sturm at C. Too risky. 

[SkolWild73]

9 minutes ago, fikifuka said:

The pretty fair solution could be: Trade or offer sheet 6,5/4 years (Rossis is eligible as an UFA not before 2029) with NTC, so that R is in control of his fate and BG can't play games if he matches. One other important point is that MIN needs one more good Center if R leaves but the Center-market is thin. They just can't plan the season with only EE, Hartman, Yurov, Sturm at C. Too risky. 

I don’t think players that are not eligible to be UFA’s can get a NTC.  

Edited 2 hours ago by SkolWild73

[SkolWild73]

14 minutes ago, fikifuka said:

The pretty fair solution could be: Trade or offer sheet 6,5/4 years (Rossis is eligible as an UFA not before 2029) with NTC, so that R is in control of his fate and BG can't play games if he matches. One other important point is that MIN needs one more good Center if R leaves but the Center-market is thin. They just can't plan the season with only EE, Hartman, Yurov, Sturm at C. Too risky. 

My wording in the last reply was kind of rough and I could not edit.  Players are not eligible for NTC's in their contracts until they are UFA's, so Rossi would not be able to have a NTC until he is eligible.