Article: Wild Have Massive Advantage to Re-Sign Kirill Kaprizov, Thanks To New CBA

[RazWild]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

This would be absolute best case scenario.  Protects us from 8 years of abdomen/groin triage and gives 97 an out if this thing continues to slide sideways

Maybe, but it's hardly the smart option for him.

Signing long-term now, would give him greater financial security if his injury concerns remain throughout. And also to maximize the total amount earned possible that he could make right now.

Signing short-term now, would only guarantee to leave future money on the table if he decided to go that route.

Because, while the AAV might well end up the same. The term length will be much reduced, bringing the total amount he could earn on a new contract way down.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, RazWild said:

Signing short-term now, would only guarantee to leave future money on the table if he decided to go that route.

We'll agree to disagree.  Think what Boldy's AAV would be if he signed his contract this off-season.  Well above $7M (see: Peterka who isn't as good).  As the cap continues to stair step up over future years the relative contract value (ie Players AAV as % of team cap) of players locked into long term 8yr deals decreases and those players (Ek, Boldy, and maybe Faber someday) get underpaid relative to lower caliber players who were lucky enough to re-sign during a cap increase period.  That's why 97 would want a short term deal.  Allows him to see what bill is really building (not just promises, but results) and allows him to go get a new contract while still at prime years and peak market value while the cap is stair stepping again.  

[RazWild]

1 minute ago, Pewterschmidt said:

We'll agree to disagree.  Think what Boldy's AAV would be if he signed his contract this off-season.  Well above $7M (see: Peterka who isn't as good).  As the cap continues to stair step up over future years the relative contract value (ie Players AAV as % of team cap) of players locked into long term 8yr deals decreases and those players (Ek, Boldy, and maybe Faber someday) get underpaid relative to lower caliber players who were lucky enough to re-sign during a cap increase period.  That's why 97 would want a short term deal.  Allows him to see what bill is really building (not just promises, but results) and allows him to go get a new contract while still at prime years and peak market value while the cap is stair stepping again.  

This is ENTIRELY my point.

While player's will be making more in earned AAV. They're LOSING total earned contract amounts. Which is why the newly agreed to CBA is reducing contract terms, in order to offset higher earned contracts.

This is the LAST YEAR that a player can sign for 8 years. The new CBA takes effect starting next offseason. Which is the 2026-27 calander year.

The MAXIMUM a player can sign for next offseason is 7 years. Or 6 as an UFA.

 

Example:

$15Mx8=$120M

$15Mx7=$105M

$15M×6=$90M

$16Mx7=$112M

$16Mx6=$96M

$17Mx7=$119M

$17Mx6=$102M

 

Again, while it's true that player's will make more per year and earlier contracts looking like greater steals. Signing a $9-10M level player like Boldy to $7M of particular note. Kaprizov's comparable's have all signed for around $12M on long-term contracts. He could very likely still sign for $15M now and get $120M on a 8 year term. Or. Have to sign for $17M+ in three plus years time to come close to what he could make now.

 

Now, again, I can't see Kaprizov getting $17M+ in AAV, even in three years time.

[Pewterschmidt]

3 minutes ago, RazWild said:

This is ENTIRELY my point.

While player's will be making more in earned AAV. They're LOSING total earned contract amounts. Which is why the newly agreed to CBA is reducing contract terms, in order to offset higher earned contracts.

This is the LAST YEAR that a player can sign for 8 years. The new CBA takes effect starting next offseason. Which is the 2026-27 calander year.

The MAXIMUM a player can sign for next offseason is 7 years. Or 6 as an UFA.

 

Example:

$15Mx8=$120M

$15Mx7=$105M

$15M×6=$90M

$16Mx7=$112M

$16Mx6=$96M

$17Mx7=$119M

$17Mx6=$102M

 

Again, while it's true that player's will make more per year and earlier contracts looking like greater steals. Signing a $9-10M level player like Boldy to $7M of particular note. Kaprizov's comparable's have all signed for around $12M on long-term contracts. He could very likely still sign for $15M now and get $120M on a 8 year term. Or. Have to sign for $17M+ in three plus years time to come close to what he could make now.

 

Now, again, I can't see Kaprizov getting $17M+ in AAV, even in three years time.

While i didn't realize the max length contract goes from 8 - 7 in new CBA we'll still agree to disagree on the math.  If i'm Kap I'll bet on myself and my wonky abdomen to ring the contract bell in 3 years (or 4 if counting next year under contract).  3 years @ $14M AAV.  Then 4 years from now signs for 5 years with NYR at $18M AAV.  How is that not better than 8X$14?

[Pewterschmidt]

7 minutes ago, RazWild said:

Now, again, I can't see Kaprizov getting $17M+ in AAV, even in three years time.

I guess this is where we differ.  Assuming no career ending injuries, he will stay in that top 10-15 in the league and will always be paid accordingly.  

[RazWild]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I guess this is where we differ.  Assuming no career ending injuries, he will stay in that top 10-15 in the league and will always be paid accordingly.  

Problem I have with that is that only McDavid is considered to be $20M per player right now. If that's where he's at, what are the AAV's of other player's going to be at if that's the bar.

McDavid currently sits at $12.6M, at least until he either resigns or forces his way out of Edmonton.

Draisaitl is at $14M until 2030.

Mackinnon is $12.6M until 2030.

Matthews is at $13.25M, and is the only one that will be an UFA in the next 3 years.

Rantanen just signed for $12M until 2030.

Marner also just signed for $12M until 2030 with the sign and trade to Vegas.

 

That's the current market value and prices for these upper echelon level players. According to these prices, Kaprizov should've likely slot in around the $12-13M mark on his next contract. Given that's where his two biggest comparables, Rantanen and Marner, just signed at. But all reasonable reports suggest he could become the highest paid player in the league. Which likely puts him between $14-15M. At least until McDavid gets his next contract.

The only three that could likely come close to a $20M McDavid is Draisaitl, Mackinnon, and Matthews. And all three are likely to be $17M or more. I don't see Rantanen, Marner, or Kaprizov getting to $17M if that's their likely ballpark. $15-16M, absolutely. But $17M or more seems like a stretch. Given that's very likely trending to top 5 1C territory. The only difference is that we're seemingly willing to go to the $15-16M range now, rather than wait for the market to rise in the next 3 years. Instead, we're setting the market.

By giving him future market value early, he's leaving money on the table with the reduced terms allowed in the coming seasons. In three years he's likely looking at similar potential AAV on the open market to what he's going to get with us now, despite the cap going up.

Edited 13 hours ago by RazWild

[Willy the poor boy]

Hey! I was told there would be no math here!

[mnfaninnc]

I'm expecting to see a Kaprizov extension soon, but I'm not expecting it today. Patience people!