Article: Wild Offered Sabres Marco Rossi for JJ Peterka, Were Rejected

[Thomas Williams]

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[Citizen Strife]

Buffalol indeed.

[Pewterschmidt]

The market is doing a good job of telling Rossi and Agent what his market value really is.  

market looks at bill, “did you even say thank you”

[FredJohnson]

I guess we didn’t have any other players that Buffalo wanted similar to Kesselring and Doan. (Or Billy and other GMs think Rossi is worth less than Kesselring and Doan.)

[PNW Wild]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

The market is doing a good job of telling Rossi and Agent what his market value really is.  

market looks at bill, “did you even say thank you”

Not sure this is the way things are looking when Peterka gets traded and immediately signs a deal worth $7.7 per year. If that's the case the market might favor Rossi a lot more than Bill. 

[Enforceror]

19 minutes ago, PNW Wild said:

Not sure this is the way things are looking when Peterka gets traded and immediately signs a deal worth $7.7 per year. If that's the case the market might favor Rossi a lot more than Bill. 

True but I think the math would be $7.7 minus whatever else was offered (player, pick, etc). I still think 6.5 is where it's at...which I would be fine with.

[B1GKappa97]

18 minutes ago, PNW Wild said:

Not sure this is the way things are looking when Peterka gets traded and immediately signs a deal worth $7.7 per year. If that's the case the market might favor Rossi a lot more than Bill. 

Except that Rossi has gotten far less trade attention/offers than what Peterka garnered. 

So if Peterka was $7.7M, it would seem Rossi isn't viewed as being worth that among other GMs.

I mean think about it, there's a dearth of top-6 Cs and still nobody is trying to knock the GMs socks off to try and pry Rossi away. He would've had to throw in other pieces to get a top-6 wing with Rossi as the centerpiece... 

Highly unlikely Rossi's gonna get an offersheet based on how teams are treating him being on the trade block. 

 

[Will D. Ness]

Just now, B1GKappa97 said:

Highly unlikely Rossi's gonna get an offersheet based on how teams are treating him being on the trade block. 

I bet he gets a QO for 6-6.5M and we match.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

37 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

(Or Billy and other GMs think Rossi is worth less than Kesselring and Doan.)

I would assume Wild offered Rossi, Gaudreau, and Spacek. That seems like it might be better than Utah offered in forward value, but Buffalo apparently valued the big 6'5" RHD(Kesselring) from round 6 of the 2018 draft.

Kesselring's average TOI suggests he was a 3rd pairing D when everyone was healthy, but likely played some 2nd pair when injuries required someone to elevate.

Doan certainly has some upside as well as a top 40 pick from the 2021 draft. At 6'2", and 190 pounds, he has solid size along with some scoring potential. He was the top scorer on Utah's AHL affiliate the year prior to last.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

10 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

I bet he gets a QO for 6-6.5M and we match.

As long as the Wild have cap space to match, I don't think anyone is going to try signing him to that deal. Teams will need to be above $7M for Guerin to consider not matching, so it's not worth their time to offer sheet him in a range they know they won't get him.

Unless another GM simply doesn't like Guerin, I don't think it's likely that they would deliver an offer sheet while the Wild have cap space to easily match.

[mnfaninnc]

3 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

I bet he gets a QO for 6-6.5M and we match.

I'm guessing you meant offersheet here. His QO would be somewhere around $1.2m, probably less. That's going to be out there just to maintain our rights with him. Rossi's problem is lack of leverage. I think Enforcer probably has a decent gauge on a longer term deal for Rossi, but with no leverage the thing is, you don't have to pay market value....for 1 year. 

If Rossi's agent continues to be unreasonable with the situation he's in, Guerin could get frustrated (which he's known to do) and just leave the QO out there and nothing more. Perhaps sitting the agent down and explaining this to him is exactly what needs to happen. Essentially, outside of an acceptable offersheet on their side, Guerin has all the leverage. 

While that's the reality, it does make for poor employee relations. The thing is, if you've got a kid who has put in 2 years of above average service and he expects a huge raise for the next year, like, say, elevated from the sales floor to assistant store manager, it just doesn't happen like that. You have to take steps to get there, not just skip a whole flight of stairs, which is what some teams have been doing with their young kids these days. 

When they wrote Rossi's name on the draft card, I have to wonder what Guerin was thinking and if he thought it would get to this? Was he expecting a late growth spurt? Was he expecting a really stocky player? How was a guy who was 5'9" at the draft going to be a #1c? Why not take the larger body in Lundell who would probably eventually get to a #2c? Ek and Lundell would have been a very good tandem (and when taken, Ek was not a 1C). 

And, I'm also going to challenge the narrative that Rossi has done everything asked of him. Obviously, he can't just grow vertically overnight, but has he really built up his body as he was asked? Is he still 182 when it was rumored 2 years ago he was passing the 190 mark? Or, is it that he plays small too and Guerin wants him to play bigger? 

IMO, Rossi needs more strength all over, and must have elite edges, don't much care about the front line speed. He's got to be able to battle in the corners and come up with pucks, and none of his skill can diminish. Is it a tough ask? Yes, but it is an expectation if he wants to get paid. According to the Buffalo GM who passed over him in the draft, he thinks the same way. We may see if every other GM in the league thinks like this too. 

[FredJohnson]

7 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I would assume Wild offered Rossi, Gaudreau, and Spacek. That seems like it might be better than Utah offered in forward value, but Buffalo apparently valued the big 6'5" RHD(Kesselring) from round 6 of the 2018 draft.

Kesselring's average TOI suggests he was a 3rd pairing D when everyone was healthy, but likely played some 2nd pair when injuries required someone to elevate.

Doan certainly has some upside as well as a top 40 pick from the 2021 draft. At 6'2", and 190 pounds, he has solid size along with some scoring potential. He was the top scorer on Utah's AHL affiliate the year prior to last.

Kesselring and Doan are probably cheaper than what Rossi wants, too.

[Pewterschmidt]

44 minutes ago, PNW Wild said:

Not sure this is the way things are looking when Peterka gets traded and immediately signs a deal worth $7.7 per year. If that's the case the market might favor Rossi a lot more than Bill. 

Fair point.  Rossi's market value is likely closer to 7M than 5M.  But Rossi ain't Peterka (even though their age and stat lines are similar) as evidenced by BUF's thanks but no thanks.  Best case scenrio is a 2X$6+ where Rossi continues up and to the right as the Wild have an appreciating asset it can trade (if it want's) at future TDL's.  

[FredJohnson]

9 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'm guessing you meant offersheet here. His QO would be somewhere around $1.2m, probably less. That's going to be out there just to maintain our rights with him. Rossi's problem is lack of leverage. I think Enforcer probably has a decent gauge on a longer term deal for Rossi, but with no leverage the thing is, you don't have to pay market value....for 1 year. 

If Rossi's agent continues to be unreasonable with the situation he's in, Guerin could get frustrated (which he's known to do) and just leave the QO out there and nothing more. Perhaps sitting the agent down and explaining this to him is exactly what needs to happen. Essentially, outside of an acceptable offersheet on their side, Guerin has all the leverage. 

While that's the reality, it does make for poor employee relations. The thing is, if you've got a kid who has put in 2 years of above average service and he expects a huge raise for the next year, like, say, elevated from the sales floor to assistant store manager, it just doesn't happen like that. You have to take steps to get there, not just skip a whole flight of stairs, which is what some teams have been doing with their young kids these days. 

When they wrote Rossi's name on the draft card, I have to wonder what Guerin was thinking and if he thought it would get to this? Was he expecting a late growth spurt? Was he expecting a really stocky player? How was a guy who was 5'9" at the draft going to be a #1c? Why not take the larger body in Lundell who would probably eventually get to a #2c? Ek and Lundell would have been a very good tandem (and when taken, Ek was not a 1C). 

And, I'm also going to challenge the narrative that Rossi has done everything asked of him. Obviously, he can't just grow vertically overnight, but has he really built up his body as he was asked? Is he still 182 when it was rumored 2 years ago he was passing the 190 mark? Or, is it that he plays small too and Guerin wants him to play bigger? 

IMO, Rossi needs more strength all over, and must have elite edges, don't much care about the front line speed. He's got to be able to battle in the corners and come up with pucks, and none of his skill can diminish. Is it a tough ask? Yes, but it is an expectation if he wants to get paid. According to the Buffalo GM who passed over him in the draft, he thinks the same way. We may see if every other GM in the league thinks like this too. 

After drafting Rossi: “I love everything about you…now change everything about you.” - GMBG

[Will D. Ness]

Just now, Imyourhuckleberry said:

As long as the Wild have cap space to match, I don't think anyone is going to try signing him to that deal. Teams will need to be above $7M for Guerin to consider not matching, so it's not worth their time to offer sheet him in a range they know they won't get him.

Unless another GM simply doesn't like Guerin, I don't think it's likely that they would deliver an offer sheet while the Wild have cap space to easily match.

I think getting a signed QO at 6M would make BG's life pretty easy, but you are right it would be a waste of time and effort for the other guy.

[Will D. Ness]

Just now, mnfaninnc said:

IMO, Rossi needs more strength all over, and must have elite edges, don't much care about the front line speed. He's got to be able to battle in the corners and come up with pucks, and none of his skill can diminish. Is it a tough ask? Yes, but it is an expectation if he wants to get paid. According to the Buffalo GM who passed over him in the draft, he thinks the same way. We may see if every other GM in the league thinks like this too. 

I think it's between the ears for Rossi.  He has shown he is capable and effective when he fights and battles.  He has also shown that has a habit of being passive out there and coasting like he did throughout the playoffs when everyone else took it up a notch.

It's hard to commit to an undersized player with a sputtering motor at times.  I believe his value is diminished because of this.  

I personally think Rossi is still a work in progress and is a late bloomer, and hopefully a more consistent attitude and drive will come with maturity.   We should keep him.

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Best case scenrio is a 2X$6+ where Rossi continues up and to the right as the Wild have an appreciating asset it can trade (if it want's) at future TDL's.  

Pewter, how is this best case scenario? Best case for the Wild or best case for Rossi? Because for the Wild, they can pretty much pay him what they want and he has, really, no leverage.

I'd say best case scenario is the Wild sign him at a very team friendly deal. He gets a decent raise but realizes his game is not yet complete for upper tier money.

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

After drafting Rossi: “I love everything about you…now change everything about you.” - GMBG

I'll go back to an other thread. Rossi was listed at 5'9" 185. I'm not exactly sure if that was his combine weight. Guerin thought he was drafting a short, stocky kid who could at least fill out another 10 lbs. of strength, and for a 17 year old, that's almost a given. Rossi is now listed at 5'9" 182. Is it unreasonable to see that Guerin's expectations have not been met?

Those 13 lbs. of muscle make a huge difference in Rossi's ability to tie a guy up behind the net, go through the home plate area and not get knocked around when you stay there, win puck battles and shield pucks. 

It's not about changing everything you do, it's now about progressing. Guerin also felt like he was getting a very healthy young man. It is now a known fact that the covid vaccine in some cases have a side effect of myocarditis. A few highly trained athletes in Europe have dropped dead after taking the vaccine (not right after). This is not a conspiracy theory, it is a side effect. According to contracts, Rossi likely took the Astra-Zeneca or Pfizer vaccination. He was likely one of the few to have this side effect. It's not his fault he got it, it's not Guerin's fault he got it, but if Rossi is not yet the player that he was envisioned to be at this point in his career, the Wild simply do not have to pay that price. 

I do not argue that Rossi hasn't worked hard but in this sport you do not get participation pay to what you want, you have to earn it, and that scale is far more complex than points accumulated. I would agree that Rossi is a fine improving talent, but he's not yet in the 7x $7m tier. He's really in the Lundell tier of 5 x $5m. I stand by what I proposed a few days ago: 2 yrs. $9m with a payout of $3.5m in '25 and $5.5m in '26. For Rossi, it's an incremental raise with a $6.xm QO next time around. He has more tape on him, the Wild can feel more comfortable with a bigger salary or have time to trade him.

[Enforceror]

In other news, Tavares gets a $4.38 x 4

I wouldn't have liked the term but would have been pleased with the aav.

[Pewterschmidt]

41 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Pewter, how is this best case scenario? Best case for the Wild or best case for Rossi? Because for the Wild, they can pretty much pay him what they want and he has, really, no leverage.

I'd say best case scenario is the Wild sign him at a very team friendly deal. He gets a decent raise but realizes his game is not yet complete for upper tier money.

Fair point.  I'm calling it a best case scenario within the spectrum of likely scenario's.  (ie - he won't sign for $4MAAV.  I guess he'd sit out if he doesn't like the offer, but bill won't force that IMO.  Cooler heads will prevail).  So at $6M for 2 yrs, Rossi joins team not feeling like he's being exploited by the Wild because he got a fair AAV and he shows up with a chip on shoulder and ready to work for his next contract.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

49 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

It's not about changing everything you do, it's now about progressing. Guerin also felt like he was getting a very healthy young man. It is now a known fact that the covid vaccine in some cases have a side effect of myocarditis. A few highly trained athletes in Europe have dropped dead after taking the vaccine (not right after). This is not a conspiracy theory, it is a side effect. According to contracts, Rossi likely took the Astra-Zeneca or Pfizer vaccination. He was likely one of the few to have this side effect. It's not his fault he got it, it's not Guerin's fault he got it, but if Rossi is not yet the player that he was envisioned to be at this point in his career, the Wild simply do not have to pay that price. 

Also a known fact that myocarditis is caused by Covid and other viruses of a similar nature. There are known cases of people dying from exertion following COVID that did not get vaccinated and there wasn't anything I've found that suggested he was vaccinated prior to his health situation.

What was reported is that Rossi was diagnosed with COVID-19 in November of 2020, and continued to feel fatigued for several months. Vaccines were not available until at least December.

You are correct that it was not Guerin's fault that Rossi had myocarditis or that he lost a bunch of weight and strength, and delayed his hockey development for at least a year. There are plenty of other health concerns that delay or derail prospects entirely. Rossi still has plenty of development potential and may become a much better player than he has shown to date.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

37 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

So at $6M for 2 yrs, Rossi joins team not feeling like he's being exploited by the Wild because he got a fair AAV and he shows up with a chip on shoulder and ready to work for his next contract.

My guess is that it would need to be at least 3 in order to get near $6M.

At 2 years, it could be closer to $5M per year.

Tavares just signed for less than $4.4M.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 minute ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

At 2 years, it could be closer to $5M per year.

2 yrs @ 5M would make me happy.  I hope Rossi's willing to go to 5.  I'll guess he get's offer sheet'd for more than 5 forcing bill's hand.  see: Peterka's 7.7M

[Imyourhuckleberry]

14 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

2 yrs @ 5M would make me happy.  I hope Rossi's willing to go to 5.  I'll guess he get's offer sheet'd for more than 5 forcing bill's hand.  see: Peterka's 7.7M

I think the $7.7M was surprisingly high by about 5-10%, but the cap is anticipated to be jumping around 9% for that 3rd season, and expected to climb from there. I know Peterka only got 5 years, but the long-term deals are going to raise the average significantly due to that cap escalation.

I did say closer to $5M, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's up around $5.5.  I just don't think we'll get near $6M unless it's at least 3+ seasons, but I'm guessing here, partly from what we know was already offered.