Article: The Age Of Tanking Is Over Just In Time To Ruin the Wild's Championship Window

[Justin Hein]

View full article

[Citizen Strife]

Would a tank have set well with Kaprizov or Boldy?  We saw a lot of the young talent they had to offer was...bleh.  Even going first or second overall doesn't guarantee you get "the right guy."

Benoit Pouliot: need I say more?

 

[Dis-allowed display name]

There has been a ton of mis-management of this team, but I would put the lack of success on this decade on two major points,  first the refusal to tank when it was clear they had NO SHOT at the cup and were going to be a one-and-out playoff team.  You don't need to try to be the worst in the league, but realize when you need to be active sellers. When you concede to being a seller at the deadline, often you can be overpaid for an asset by a team trying to win a cup.

I would imagine their is pressure from the ownership group that is afraid of losing season ticket holders when they miss the playoffs, and they want the revenue from a couple home sellouts at playoff prices, but there have been four or five years they should have been shedding dead weight, clearing cap, and gaining prospects or picks.  The refusal to do so has made them buyers of more dead weight, unable to clear cap, and losers of picks or prospects.

The second giant mistake was the management of the Parise/Suter situation.  I was fine with the idea of brining them in and giving it a shot.  Several years down the road it was clear that they were not going to bring a ton of success and you had to make a change.  When  that was CRYSTAL FREAKING CLEAR, there was a trade offer from was it the Islanders or the Rangers? for Parise.  His returns were diminishing, his attitude was poor, and the  team was not improving.  His contract was going to provide less and less value with each passing year.  They should have unloaded him for anything they could get because the value of ditching the contract and decreasing performance was more valuable that whatever lousy package we were offered in return.  They declined to make the deal.

Then you have the buyouts.  I heard they were going to buyout both deals.  I thought that was a mistake given te situation it created.  I would have bought out Parise and kept Suter.  Suter was not great, and his attitude was poor as well, but he still had some value as a defenseman who ate minutes.  You could have kept him another year, and then tried to find some similar deal from an interested party to ditch his contract, or kept playing him as long as you could.  He might not have played up to the salary, but the fact that he could even be a second pairing defenseman at a high salary was much better than getting NOTHING for that high salary.  We had to pay to make him leave, then pay again for someone to play that slot which costs your ability to fill other holes.  You still might be keeping a whiner on the roster, but you are getting some level of utility, instead we got none unless you buy the addition by subtraction, but he proved he could still play.

Those two things have doomed us to mediocrity.

Edited 4 hours ago by Dis-allowed display name

[mnfaninnc]

53 minutes ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

The second giant mistake was the management of the Parise/Suter situation.  I was fine with the idea of brining them in and giving it a shot.  Several years down the road it was clear that they were not going to bring a ton of success and you had to make a change.  When  that was CRYSTAL FREAKING CLEAR, there was a trade offer from was it the Islanders or the Rangers? for Parise.  His returns were diminishing, his attitude was poor, and the  team was not improving.  His contract was going to provide less and less value with each passing year.  They should have unloaded him for anything they could get because the value of ditching the contract and decreasing performance was more valuable that whatever lousy package we were offered in return.  They declined to make the deal.

Then you have the buyouts.  I heard they were going to buyout both deals.  I thought that was a mistake given te situation it created.  I would have bought out Parise and kept Suter.  Suter was not great, and his attitude was poor as well, but he still had some value as a defenseman who ate minutes.  You could have kept him another year, and then tried to find some similar deal from an interested party to ditch his contract, or kept playing him as long as you could.  He might not have played up to the salary, but the fact that he could even be a second pairing defenseman at a high salary was much better than getting NOTHING for that high salary.  We had to pay to make him leave, then pay again for someone to play that slot which costs your ability to fill other holes.  You still might be keeping a whiner on the roster, but you are getting some level of utility, instead we got none unless you buy the addition by subtraction, but he proved he could still play.

This is the plan I think I would have gone with, except if IIRC Guerin had a deal and Lou pulled a bait and switch type of thing on him. Some may say Guerin's ego might have gotten in the way, but I think it's worse than that. Had Guerin taken the switch, word would have gotten out that you could do that to him. This would have been bad for future deals. I'm glad Guerin didn't give in and he had a TDL to work with so he had limited time to decide. Lou tried to put him on the clock to make a poor decision.

Still, had we gotten something, it may have been worse than nothing, it might have been some schlub taking up a roster spot in the A that has no business being in the organization. Or, it could have been a pick?

With Suter, I think asking him to waive his NMC was a necessity. Uncomfortable as it would have been, it would have given Suter a chance to do something for the organization, or not. Guerin would have then known how committed he was to this team. He could have asked and bought him out later instead of playing a power play on Suter and just straight buying him out. 

Which brings us to the area which wasn't discussed: the Expansion Draft. Let's just say that Suter had not been bought out and declined to waive (his right). Does Guerin then buy him out, or does he lose another defender? It was suggested that he could have lost Dumba, though, when you look at the defenders Francis liked, they were all tall and heavy. 

At this point, Guerin is new, and he's got to make these decisions without his guys in place. Judd would have been newly hired. I think it was pretty obvious that Dumba's game was deteriorating at the time, so I think I might have rolled the dice with that and kept Suter. But, Suter definitely was no longer worthy of the top pairing and needed to be moved down and had minutes diminished. Could Evason have humbled Suter? 

So, I do think DADN has some valid points here. 20/20 hindsight is great. Were they mistakes with a new GM? Or, when Guerin walked through the locker room, did he notice something that needed a quick swift change? All letter guys and substitute letter guys were gone within a year of each other. That's like cutting off the head of leadership. This part we will never truly know unless after Guerin is fired, he turns author. On that topic, let's look at where OCL comes from, Nashville. How long, exactly, did they keep David Poile as a GM? I think that is the mentality going on here too.

[mnfaninnc]

Justin, thanks for the article. In looking up the draft picks that Chicago took and LA took, for the draft capital they had, I would say the return wasn't very good. But when they hit, there were clusters.

If our guys from '20-22 hit, and if we trade Rossi, that might be moved to '21-23, I think we can have the same things happen. Chicago didn't just get top 5 1sts either. They were very frequent at picks 10-14 which weren't that good. The same guy who built the core of Chicago also built the core of Florida. After that, to get to relevance, both teams had to make savvy trades and signings. Chicago's was Marian Hossa. Weirdly, one of LA's was Gaborik. Florida's was Tkachuk, but don't diminish the cheap pickups of Bennett and Forsling. 

I think the main lesson to learn here is finding the right guys. Could Chisholm turn into our version of Forsling? Could our young core turn into a special young core? Do we have the right development and the right coaching staff? Coach Q was a big hire for Chicago, the right guy for that team. Drafting is more of a crap shoot, but trading for the right people where we see value others don't see should be the difference. 

For me, trading for Kreider or Marchement would have been no brainers. Each had trade protection. Was it from MN? Maybe Shooter's got different irons in the fire. Maybe guys like Voronkov or Marchenko are on his list? This is for sure, UFA this year isn't going to get this done, we're going to have to trade or pick up off waivers. 

[OldDutchChip]

Great article! To connect this to my previous thoughts - 

Looking at the Stanley Cup participants from recent years, I just don't think we are that far off. Although, the lack of urgency and complacency from the team (and fans), and poor creative thinking (fair offers and thinking that is more than one step ahead....), is likely going to doom us and cement us in  mediocracy/irrelevancy soon enough. 

But why are we close? Well each recent SC participant had at least one superstar, picked very early on who plays like a superstar in every sense of the word.

Oilers drafted McD (1st pick)and Draisaitl (3rd). Vegas got Eichel (2nd). Colorado drafted MacK (1st). FL drafted Barkov (2nd) and got Matthews (6th). 

We lucked out and have that superstar (let's pretend Kap was 1st pick and not 5th rounder). And he is playing like any of the above (i believe better - but whatever).

Kaprizov will be 29 at the end of his current contract. Let's pretend that he signs off for another 7 years. The reality is that 25-31 is peak level of performance. You can likely stretch that to 34/35. Maybe even defy it a bit more. But the true peak is now for Kap. And for the next 3-5 years (optimistic outlook).

So now we have the player that contenders have. There is no need to bottom out and pray that it works out - it actually worked out already! You have that game changer. The time is now to take the next step and go for it.

But instead we choose to proceed as normal (complacency), and our focus strays to things like development and potential. I don't know maybe it is the MN curse - being afraid of realizing that you are actually this close. No No - we are not ready yet - wait 5 years and see! Wait for what? Kap will age out of his prime by then! 

Snap out of this funk! 3-5 year of dominance is right there for the taking - but there is a price to pay!

Rossi, Ohgren, Yurov, Wally, Faber, Zeev (Jiricek ....)  - any and all of the above should be used to get us players that will help win now. 

We are sitting quiet well in the G dept - i think Gus and hopefully Wally are going to offer us a cost saving duo that you can depend on.  I think Gus played better than both goalies in the SC final....

I'd make Kap, Ek, Boldy, Foligno, Harty untouchable on Offense. Sell high on Zeev (he is talked about as a super producer like Makar and Hughes - you will find buyers) Bring in Tkachuk. Kap and Tkachuk will lay out a new culture and we become the dominant team in the West for the next 5 years. 

Or continue building thru the draft, develop prospects and celebrate small achievements by Rossi and Spurgy. But your chance to win is no more. 

[0 Stanley Cups]

13 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

For me, trading for Kreider or Marchement would have been no brainers. Each had trade protection. Was it from MN? Maybe Shooter's got different irons in the fire. Maybe guys like Voronkov or Marchenko are on his list? This is for sure, UFA this year isn't going to get this done, we're going to have to trade or pick up off waivers. 

Seeing Marchment given away for almost nothing yesterday was a bummer, but Dallas wouldn't have moved him to MIN within the division even for the sake of a salary dump.  Unfortunately, Trenin and his contract is occupying a LW spot anyway, because Kap, Foligno, and Ohgren have the other spots at LW.  Trenin's contract is a prime example of a cautionary tale come July 1. 

Part of BG's problem is he gives everyone term at 3, 4, or 5 yrs and then were stuck.  I can't remember the last time we dealt someone at the TDL for picks or prospects, we never sell off depreciating assets.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

but there have been four or five years they should have been shedding dead weight, clearing cap, and gaining prospects or picks.  The refusal to do so has made them buyers of more dead weight, unable to clear cap, and losers of picks or prospects.

Very well said.  beside losing trades (vs winning a trade) bill’s thick headed asset mismanagement has been very evident at the trade deadline’s.  His justification is usually some version of “we believe in our group Bob loblaw law blog”.  He’s never been able to flip our declining assets for inflated futures at a TDL. 
#Don’t be dumb thin skin bill

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

The refusal to do so has made them buyers of more dead weight, unable to clear cap, and losers of picks or prospects.

But P-Quantum, are there really examples of this?

Here's two from this season's TDL:

see: telephone pole on skates named Brazzo

also see: Nyquil

[Dis-allowed display name]

59 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

 

So now we have the player that contenders have. There is no need to bottom out and pray that it works out - it actually worked out already! You have that game changer. The time is now to take the next step and go for it.

 

I think this is what Guerin thinks so he ran to the phone and called NoJo to re-up and take up a roster spot.   I can almost see the championship parade now.

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

I think this is what Guerin thinks so he ran to the phone and called NoJo to re-up and take up a roster spot.   I can almost see the championship parade now.

MJ is signed for 800k and is not blocking anyone from taking his spot but whatever

[Citizen Strife]

With the center free agents drying up, Guerin might have to swing on Boeser or Ehlers, barring that Russo-riffic Rossi for Peterka thing.

Any of those three immediately puts to bed any fear of Mojo: $800k Top-6 starter.