Article: Would Boston Make the Most Competitive Offer For Rossi?

[Imyourhuckleberry]

18 minutes ago, Patrick said:

The Wilds pick will be approx 16 places after Florida's AND we gave up a player. Its a pretty embarrassing trade by the Wild. (and a good one for Florida)

Not exactly. Florida had already traded away their 2025 1st and their 2026 1st, so it's unclear where the pick will be in 2027.

It was a great trade for Florida and Boston, and for Marchand, who had earned the right to be traded to a contender. I'm not saying the trade was a good one for the Wild. I think they didn't see a future in the NHL for Khusnutdinov with the Wild and traded him for a player who could hold up defensively for this playoff run. Khusnutdinov was doing poorly in the role the Wild had for him, and he was unlikely to move up from the 4th line due to other prospects and free agent or trade acquisitions they were expected to make this summer.

It certainly wasn't a great trade for the Wild, I was just arguing that a 1st round pick is a better asset than guys who the Wild don't expect to play for them in the future.

[Patrick]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Not exactly. Florida had already traded away their 2025 1st and their 2026 1st, so it's unclear where the pick will be in 2027.

It was a great trade for Florida and Boston, and for Marchand, who had earned the right to be traded to a contender. I'm not saying the trade was a good one for the Wild. I think they didn't see a future in the NHL for Khusnutdinov with the Wild and traded him for a player who could hold up defensively for this playoff run. Khusnutdinov was doing poorly in the role the Wild had for him, and he was unlikely to move up from the 4th line due to other prospects and free agent or trade acquisitions they were expected to make this summer.

It certainly wasn't a great trade for the Wild, I was just arguing that a 1st round pick is a better asset than guys who the Wild don't expect to play for them in the future.

Well that backfired spectacularly.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who looked like a fish out of water as much as Brazaeu did this post season.  

 

[FredJohnson]

16 hours ago, hydguy75 said:

So if Rossi is worth all of that, where are all of the bona fide offers?

Hynes and Billy torched Rossi’s value by putting him on the 4th line and broadcasting their desire to trade him.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Patrick said:

Well that backfired spectacularly.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who looked like a fish out of water as much as Brazaeu did this post season.  

 

Agree this one may go down as bill’s most extreme destruction of asset value.  Braz is a gutless, heartless telephone pole in skates.  Even at 6’8” he’s another beta on this roster.  

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, Patrick said:

Well that backfired spectacularly.  I don't think I've ever seen a player who looked like a fish out of water as much as Brazaeu did this post season. 

Interesting. Brazeau recorded 2 assists and was on the ice for 2 goals for an 1 against, which sounds like winning playoff hockey.

Brazeau was actually 4th on the team in scoring per 60 even strength...

In which ways did it backfire?

Edited 23 hours ago by Imyourhuckleberry
Added per 60 scoring ranking.

[RazWild]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

You are correct, I did not know this. So, if a contract is for 7 years $49m, they calculate the salary cap number as 5/49? What happens the next 2 years then?

Nothing, $7Mx7 SC = $9.8Mx5 OS. It automatically turns into a 5 year contract at higher AAV. So yes, $49M ÷ 5 = $9.8M AAV. Once the offersheet 5 year term is up, the player is once again in need of a new contract.

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I assume that this cap number is the same for both teams, not different if you match it. So, does that mean that an offersheet that comes in likely will be a 5 year offer? So, 5 years <$7.2m would likely be matched, anything greater would be a 1st, 2nd and 3rd?

So, Raz, outside of the 5 year cap, am I missing anything else? 

I'm not seeing the point here. I'm not talking about $7m x 7 here, I'm simply talking about a $7m without the term. If a GM doesn't come up with an offersheet above the $7.2m threshold my point is that it will be matched, maybe at $7m x 5 instead of 7. We already have heard the rumor that the Flyers' GM was not going into the $7m cap number either.

Thanks for the correction.

Again, AAV is determined by total contract value divided by term length. In the case of a max term offersheet, the term is 5 years. Any offersheet could potentially be less than 5 years if teams are willing to go higher AAV with the intention of seeing it not get matched. But shorten the term length at that higher cap hit. Alternatively, they could also go higher total value, to drive up the AAV on a max term offersheet.

Offersheet compensation is currently set as follows.

$11.7+ AAV = 4 1st's

$9.36M - 11.7M AAV = 2 1st's, 2nd, 3rd

$7.02M - 9.36M AAV = 1st, 2nd, 3rd

$4.68M - 7.02M AAV = 1st, 3rd 

$2.34M - 4.68M AAV = 2nd

$1.54M - 2.34M AAV = 3rd

<$1.54M = Nothing

So, ultimately. It depends on what exactly Rossi and his agent are looking for. Are they insistent on getting $7M in AAV, which Guerin doesn't seem to believe he's worth it. Or are they more concerned about hitting total value?

Since Rossi's ask is $49M over 7 years. Does he leave $14M off the table to take a $7Mx5 contract? That's $35M total value.

Guerin's offer was $5MX5, $25M.

If it's total value, it's going to cost more the shorter the contract gets.

To put this in perspective. My point earlier too, was that Rossi's contract projections per Evolving-Hockey was $6.8Mx7, and $7.7M per the Athletic. In fact, Rossi's numbers from the Athletic ranged between $7.6M to $8.3M at it's peak over the course of the season. Now, Evolving-Hockey typically tends to be notoriously conservative in its projections. The Athletic's tend to be on the high end. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.

Outside of Guerin, I find it hard to believe there's not a GM out there who wouldn't be willing to pay Rossi market rate to get their hands on a 23 years old 60 point center. Especially on a $7MX5 offersheet contract. Furthermore, that Flyers rumor was debunked by Russo. And the report your referring to got walked back by the original reporter, too.

Either way, it doesn't sound like Guerin wants to go either route. And it's doubtful he matches no matter the offersheet. Current reports are that Guerin isn't going to let it get to an potential offersheet stage, regardless. And that Rossi will either be signed or traded before July 1st.

That means, trade.

And no problem. Happy to inform.

[RazWild]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Interesting. Brazeau recorded 2 assists and was on the ice for 2 goals for an 1 against, which sounds like winning playoff hockey.

Brazeau was actually 4th on the team in scoring per 60 even strength...

In which ways did it backfire?

He can thank Trenin for passing it to Rossi and Rossi for putting it in the Net.

Both assist's were secondary.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

55 minutes ago, RazWild said:

He can thank Trenin for passing it to Rossi and Rossi for putting it in the Net.

Both assist's were secondary

How do you explain the primary assist in the playoff scoring logs for Brazeau then?

[Dis-allowed display name]

2 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Agree this one may go down as bill’s most extreme destruction of asset value.  Braz is a gutless, heartless telephone pole in skates.  Even at 6’8” he’s another beta on this roster.  

When the trade was made my first thought was "Who?"

My second thought was we traded for a guy who was just breaking into the league on a mediocre team at 27 years old?  This is a very low ceiling move, but Guerin loves those.

[PiranhasOnIce]

3 hours ago, RazWild said:

Nothing, $7Mx7 SC = $9.8Mx5 OS. It automatically turns into a 5 year contract at higher AAV. So yes, $49M ÷ 5 = $9.8M AAV. Once the offersheet 5 year term is up, the player is once again in need of a new contract.

That is not how things work.  If the player signs a 7-year contract, it lasts 7 years.   The factor of 5 only plays a role in determining compensation in draft capital.   An offer-sheeted 7×$7m will pay $49m total over 7 years.   It doesn't change the actual contract.  The league rules state the total contract value is divided by 5 years for any offer of 5+ years in length, and places it on the scale for compensatory picks that you show.

[RazWild]

26 minutes ago, PiranhasOnIce said:

That is not how things work.  If the player signs a 7-year contract, it lasts 7 years.   The factor of 5 only plays a role in determining compensation in draft capital.   An offer-sheeted 7×$7m will pay $49m total over 7 years.   It doesn't change the actual contract.  The league rules state the total contract value is divided by 5 years for any offer of 5+ years in length, and places it on the scale for compensatory picks that you show.

No, that is exactly how offersheets work.

Again, offersheets are capped to a maximum of 5 year term. Players cannot be signed to an offersheet of longer-term than that. So a $7Mx7 offersheet is not a thing. A max term offersheet is always total value divided by 5 years. ALWAYS.

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I'm merely pointing out the theoretical contract in both standard and offersheet form's. That's it.

The usage of a $7Mx7 contract there is strictly as a reference point. It is only to be used as a standard contract comparable. It's not the actual offersheet. The offersheet is for $9.8Mx5.

Again, a $7Mx7 SC is directly comparable to a $9.8Mx5 OS. Because the total value amount of both is $49M over the course of the contracts. This is why Rossi would have to be offersheeted at an AAV of $9.8M in order to meet his current asking price of $49M. Otherwise, the $7M AAV offersheet price point only gets him $35M over the length of the offersheet.

In either instance. The offersheet term length is 5 years, the maximum allowed by the CBA.

[DennisIN]

Can we acknowledge the terrible people leading skills of Guerin?

Rossi has an excellent work ethic. He stayed in Minny during the summer after his first stint in Iowa. He improved every season and even excelled on a crappy AHL team. He received Calder votes and improved season over season. I believe that he has not reached his ceiling yet.

The demotion in the playoffs will have taught him a lot and he will work his ass off to get better. Next year will be his first ppg season, I am certain. Just image if he had a good mentor that would give him a clear development plan instead of giving him the constant feeling of doubt. Just terrible management.

He might be a quiet and introvert guy. But he will for sure put in the effort and will not get lazy. Give him the credit he deserves and a the payday he is worth.

Selling him now for a mid first round pick and an NHL ready prospects will haunt us. 

[Pewterschmidt]

14 hours ago, Dis-allowed display name said:

When the trade was made my first thought was "Who?"

My second thought was we traded for a guy who was just breaking into the league on a mediocre team at 27 years old?  This is a very low ceiling move, but Guerin loves those.

Yes, this trade was the 2025 version of the prior:

1) Reaves

2) Delaurias

3) Sundqvist

I understand that a lineup needs a certain number of palooka's going into playoff hockey.  I can even appreciate their role when done correctly.  (Foligno is borderline palooka gold standard), but i will never understand how Boston had any leverage to require two of our rostered players and a future pick for an AHL journeyman.  bill got beaten like a drum in this trade...AGAIN. 

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, DennisIN said:

Can we acknowledge the terrible people leading skills of Guerin?

Yes we can and should begin acknowledging this when it happens.  It's no longer just a personality quirk.  It's an indicator that thin skin bill does not have the skills/qualities/IQ/composure/etc to be an effective NHL GM.  

[mnfaninnc]

17 hours ago, RazWild said:

Outside of Guerin, I find it hard to believe there's not a GM out there who wouldn't be willing to pay Rossi market rate to get their hands on a 23 years old 60 point center. Especially on a $7MX5 offersheet contract. Furthermore, that Flyers rumor was debunked by Russo. And the report your referring to got walked back by the original reporter, too.

Either way, it doesn't sound like Guerin wants to go either route. And it's doubtful he matches no matter the offersheet. Current reports are that Guerin isn't going to let it get to an potential offersheet stage, regardless. And that Rossi will either be signed or traded before July 1st.

We're not in fire sale mode, why wouldn't Guerin wait it out if he doesn't like the offers? I guess he would need to find value of a 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks compensation for an offersheet with players that may be ahead of that timeline since he doesn't want to delay his timeline at all.

With Kreider off the board, it makes dealing with the Rangers a less attractive place now. I'd be interested to hear if Kreider nixed any deal.

[FredJohnson]

Sounds like the market for Rossi (player for player swap) is cold or lukewarm at best. Billy gonna have to eat some $hit on a trade or Rossi’s new contract. And he has no one but himself (and Hynes) to blame.

[FredJohnson]

54 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I find it hard to believe there's not a GM out there who wouldn't be willing to pay Rossi market rate to get their hands on a 23 years old 60 point center.

Teams are looking at the fact that Rossi was on to the 4th line in the playoffs with a loss meaning the season is over while Gaudreau was given more minutes with better line mates on the 3rd line. Apparently, Montreal (who needs a 2C) won’t consider Rossi at all. Other teams are asking The Athletic’s Michael Russo what the deal is! Going the offer sheet route and matching it might be the only way Billy doesn’t eat a $hit burger on this situation.

Edited 3 hours ago by FredJohnson
Grammer

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

Sounds like the market for Rossi (player for player swap) is cold or lukewarm at best. Billy gonna have to eat some $hit on a trade or Rossi’s new contract. And he has no one but himself (and Hynes) to blame.

why? what is Rossi's leverage here? To not play at all? or to sign a contract with another team for 5 X 5 that Bill can match? no one is really screaming out to sign him.