Article: Would Boston Make the Most Competitive Offer For Rossi?

[OldDutchChip]

56 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

At this point, Rossi's best play is to get to arbitration from his perspective. If he signs 5 x $5m that is extremely team friendly. I suspect he will agree to a 1 year deal more in the $4.5m area and then go to arbitration next year if he doesn't get his big deal. 

Give him $5/5.5 for 3 years and move on to focus on Kap and his needs

[FredJohnson]

On 6/13/2025 at 11:59 AM, OldDutchChip said:

why? what is Rossi's leverage here? To not play at all? or to sign a contract with another team for 5 X 5 that Bill can match? no one is really screaming out to sign him.

 

Rossi has a lot of leverage if a team (it only takes one) places an offer sheet out for Rossi with a value north of what Billy is offering. (And I’ll bet a team would.) Billy would have to take the picks (which he does NOT want to do) or match that contract (which he does NOT want to do).

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

Give him $5/5.5 for 3 years and move on to focus on Kap and his needs

Would Rossi agree to that?

[mnfaninnc]

40 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

Rossi has a lot of leverage if a team (it only takes one) places an offer sheet out for Rossi with a value north of what Billy is offering. (And I’ll bet a team would.) Billy would have to take the picks (which he does NOT want to do) or match that contract (which he does NOT want to do).

If you're sitting in Guerin's chair, where do you match and where do you take the compensation? As a GM you've got to be prepared for both scenarios. 

Let's just say that Rossi refuses to sign here for anything less than $7m x 7. Guerin isn't so sure he wants that deal. He's stuck on lower and won't give this to Rossi. It goes to offersheet season. What is your decision?

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, FredJohnson said:

Rossi has a lot of leverage if a team (it only takes one) places an offer sheet out for Rossi with a value north of what Billy is offering. (And I’ll bet a team would.) Billy would have to take the picks (which he does NOT want to do) or match that contract (which he does NOT want to do).

He has no actual leverage - no one really is predicted to offer sheet him in that range

He wants 7+

you think anyone will give that for Rossi? And part w 1st? 
 

[OldDutchChip]

53 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Would Rossi agree to that?

He’ll have to consider it…..

Does he want to hold out? Watch Yurov pass him on depth chart…

[FredJohnson]

57 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

If you're sitting in Guerin's chair, where do you match and where do you take the compensation? As a GM you've got to be prepared for both scenarios. 

Let's just say that Rossi refuses to sign here for anything less than $7m x 7. Guerin isn't so sure he wants that deal. He's stuck on lower and won't give this to Rossi. It goes to offersheet season. What is your decision?

I would have done the 7x7 a while ago. I think it was Russo that said Billy offered Rossi a lot less (less than 5 AAV if I recall). 

[FredJohnson]

22 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

He has no actual leverage - no one really is predicted to offer sheet him in that range

He wants 7+

you think anyone will give that for Rossi? And part w 1st? 
 

I’m not sure. I don’t know every team’s situation. I know Montreal needs a 2C but has NO interest in Rossi. If a team puts an offer sheet out on Rossi around the 6MM AAV range does Billy match it? 5MM?

[OldDutchChip]

1 minute ago, FredJohnson said:

I’m not sure. I don’t know every team’s situation. I know Montreal needs a 2C but has NO interest in Rossi. If a team puts an offer sheet out on Rossi around the 6MM AAV range does Billy match it? 5MM?

Yeap and that’s a win for Bill to keep it under 6

[mnfaninnc]

6 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

He has no actual leverage - no one really is predicted to offer sheet him in that range

He wants 7+

you think anyone will give that for Rossi? And part w 1st? 

It's not just a 1st, but likely a 1st, 2nd, 3rd not lottery protected. I was just reading Russo/Smith take on this. Their take is it just got more complicated. The original take dealt with what compensation would be in a trade. There's really nothing complicated about it, Rossi's backed into a corner where he has little leverage. 

I circle back to Aho who got a great offer from Montreal where Waddell matched it and said thank you to Montreal and then had a nice summer vacation. I can't remember the compensation. 

I think if compensation is a 1st and 3rd, Guerin simply matches, and moves on to Kaprizov. If it's 1st, 2nd 3rd, I think Guerin looks at the team to see where their talent level is at, and if it's a top 10 projected pick, he has to think hard about it. 

With the trade compensation that Russo/Smith were talking about, really only Utah's #4 was enticing. Who cares about the rest of the offers, they were crap. Those things being dangled I would say get them out of my face they're annoying me. 

Bottom line is Rossi is worth a significant return and if teams aren't willing to give that, then simply keep him, re-offer 5 x $5m, and wait on the offersheet. I'm with you, I don't think one will come, and a low offersheet that he actually signs will likely just be a match, so Rossi has to sign one over $7.03. Does Rossi really want to leave? If so, you've got to come up with an offersheet that won't be matched. Does Rossi care if it's a good team? If he wants out of MN, maybe he doesn't. 

[mnfaninnc]

7 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

If a team puts an offer sheet out on Rossi around the 6MM AAV range does Billy match it? 5MM?

absolutely and moves on to Kaprizov.

[FredJohnson]

23 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

Yeap and that’s a win for Bill to keep it under 6

Heard he wants it under 5! 

[FredJohnson]

21 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

absolutely and moves on to Kaprizov.

But heard he offered under 5! (Russo on his podcast I think)

Edited 20 hours ago by FredJohnson
A real sentence

[mnfaninnc]

Maybe we should go this route. Who is eligible to make an offersheet in the 1,2,3 compensation and what does their cap number look like?

Montreal              6.11m            20/23

Detroit                 21.34m           17/23✅

Boston                26.27m            14/23

New Jersey        12.04m            19/23

Pittsburgh           23.73m            19/23✅

Philadelphia        18.99m           19/23✅

Utah                     20.36m             21/23✅

Nashville             17.31m             21/23✅

Chicago               29.2m               21/23✅

Los Angeles        21.71m            21/23✅

Calgary                26.9m               19/23✅

Anaheim             32.19m              17/23✅

Seattle                19.95m               16/23

There are 13 teams that are eligible to meet the 2026 compensation for a $7.1m offersheet. I'd probably take compensation from Chicago, Philly, maybe Boston. I think the others are probably a match because with Rossi, they could be playoff bound. 

The check marks indicate the teams that a brief look at their roster would indicate that they might take a run at Rossi. There's a lot of money to throw around here. Only one of those teams are Canadian, so he may not want to go to Calgary. 

 

 

[mnfaninnc]

32 minutes ago, FredJohnson said:

But heard he offered under 5! (Russo on his podcast I think)

I could see a 2 x $4.5m, but I think the Rossi camp under $5m goes 1 year to get to arbitration.

[OldDutchChip]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

It's not just a 1st, but likely a 1st, 2nd, 3rd not lottery protected. I was just reading Russo/Smith take on this. Their take is it just got more complicated. The original take dealt with what compensation would be in a trade. There's really nothing complicated about it, Rossi's backed into a corner where he has little leverage. 

I circle back to Aho who got a great offer from Montreal where Waddell matched it and said thank you to Montreal and then had a nice summer vacation. I can't remember the compensation. 

I think if compensation is a 1st and 3rd, Guerin simply matches, and moves on to Kaprizov. If it's 1st, 2nd 3rd, I think Guerin looks at the team to see where their talent level is at, and if it's a top 10 projected pick, he has to think hard about it. 

With the trade compensation that Russo/Smith were talking about, really only Utah's #4 was enticing. Who cares about the rest of the offers, they were crap. Those things being dangled I would say get them out of my face they're annoying me. 

Bottom line is Rossi is worth a significant return and if teams aren't willing to give that, then simply keep him, re-offer 5 x $5m, and wait on the offersheet. I'm with you, I don't think one will come, and a low offersheet that he actually signs will likely just be a match, so Rossi has to sign one over $7.03. Does Rossi really want to leave? If so, you've got to come up with an offersheet that won't be matched. Does Rossi care if it's a good team? If he wants out of MN, maybe he doesn't. 

agree with ya here

imagine Sharks or Hawks going with an offer sheet for Rossi.....YES please

 

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Maybe we should go this route. Who is eligible to make an offersheet in the 1,2,3 compensation and what does their cap number look like?

Montreal              6.11m            20/23

Detroit                 21.34m           17/23✅

Boston                26.27m            14/23

New Jersey        12.04m            19/23

Pittsburgh           23.73m            19/23✅

Philadelphia        18.99m           19/23✅

Utah                     20.36m             21/23✅

Nashville             17.31m             21/23✅

Chicago               29.2m               21/23✅

Los Angeles        21.71m            21/23✅

Calgary                26.9m               19/23✅

Anaheim             32.19m              17/23✅

Seattle                19.95m               16/23

There are 13 teams that are eligible to meet the 2026 compensation for a $7.1m offersheet. I'd probably take compensation from Chicago, Philly, maybe Boston. I think the others are probably a match because with Rossi, they could be playoff bound. 

The check marks indicate the teams that a brief look at their roster would indicate that they might take a run at Rossi. There's a lot of money to throw around here. Only one of those teams are Canadian, so he may not want to go to Calgary. 

 

 

i very much doubt any of the teams mentioned above gives Rossi an offer sheet that he wants...they understand that they likely will be at the bottom of the standings and would give up a potential top 5 first rounder to sign Rossi....i don't think there is a GM in the entire league that would give up a top5 pick for Rossi. not to mention 2/3rd. i guess maybe LA - who is likely a lock for PO and their pick wouldn't be that high - but i don't see them doing that. 

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

I could see a 2 x $4.5m, but I think the Rossi camp under $5m goes 1 year to get to arbitration.

and that's how it works - you can't expect the same offer if you declined the first one. the offer will change depending on state of things. less demand - means less money. 

[mnfaninnc]

15 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

i very much doubt any of the teams mentioned above gives Rossi an offer sheet that he wants...they understand that they likely will be at the bottom of the standings and would give up a potential top 5 first rounder to sign Rossi....i don't think there is a GM in the entire league that would give up a top5 pick for Rossi. not to mention 2/3rd. i guess maybe LA - who is likely a lock for PO and their pick wouldn't be that high - but i don't see them doing that. 

Several of the teams listed also have pretty good depth down the middle. I mentioned LA because they have the cap room and Kopitar is 37. I think there is a chance that they could try. They've got some young players already drafted so they could afford to lose a draft.

Some of the lower teams are trying to build up, like Anaheim. Their front line guys might be pretty good, but injuries can always derail that. But, the point that a GM with a potential top 5 pick WON'T make an offersheet takes away more leverage of the tiny bit Rossi's got. 

That's why the best solution (for Rossi) is to sign a 1 year bridge deal, come into camp at 195, have burst and an edge, and show Guerin you can be trusted. He might play this year with a low salary but get an extension shortly into the season that looks like Boldy's.

There's no doubt he can put up points with average wings. He can also put up massive points with great wings. It's the away from the puck play, shielding the puck and getting knocked down easily that has Guerin worried. There's no doubt that Rossi is a hard worker and has that work ethic. He's just not finished with it, and if he gets the big deal the FO is not certain he will continue to get himself bigger.

Strength on skates is kind of a big deal in playoff hockey. People compare his numbers to Marchand. Look at how Marchand has taken less throughout his whole career so far and Marchand is stronger on his skates. This is where Rossi has to get to.

[Pewterschmidt]

52 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

People compare his numbers to Marchand. Look at how Marchand has taken less throughout his whole career so far and Marchand is stronger on his skates.

Difference between Rossi and Marchand is between the ears.  Marchand is a unique character

[mnfaninnc]

26 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Difference between Rossi and Marchand is between the ears.  Marchand is a unique character

On top of the edge work, bulking up, and strong on the skates, do we also need to get him licking lessons? 😉