Article: Minnesota's Rossi Qualms Highlight A Flaw With Its Cap Hell Draft Strategy

[Tom Schreier]

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[mnfaninnc]

I'm not in the trade Rossi camp because he's too small. But this article is full of opinions stated as facts. The true thing is, Button did say that.

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The Wild have made the playoffs in 11 of the past 13 years, but haven’t made it out of the first round since 2014-15. They don’t have enough skill to win in the playoffs.

Is it enough skill or enough size? I think the real answer here is enough players with size and skill. When the playoffs come around they're good enough to get a 2-1 lead, but not good enough from there due to the physical punishment. They've got some size/skill players coming, but have done a poor job preparing them in Iowa. If you're going to look somewhere, that might be the best place to look.

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Rossi is coming off a 24-goal, 60-point season. Few teams would give up on a 23-year-old center, especially one like the Wild, with only one other top-6 center on the roster. During his end-of-season press conference, Guerin emphasized the need for center depth.

Not all things are points, though I thought Rossi was defensively responsible at center. He does need to add strength if he wants to continue there and he needs to add faceoff wins, something I thought he was better at especially coming down the stretch. But, maybe Rossi fits in better as a wing. The problem here is Zuccy. 2 guys on the wings that short isn't good. I personally believe that Zuccy was signed too long and we should believe in Rossi's future and ask Zuccy where he wants to go.

But, let's be honest, Guerin is absolutely right. We had 2 wings who can play center manning the next 2 center spots. They should be replaced by real centers.

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Guerin and Rossi are at an impasse. Guerin low-balled him with a five-year, $25 million offer, chump change for a scoring center with upside. Had Guerin had the foresight to sign Rossi before the cap increase, he may have been able to get Rossi on a five-year, $35 million contract. That’s third-line center money, albeit on the high end, under the new cap.

This is a 20/20 hindsight take. No GM in this league should have signed Rossi to a 5 x $7m extension before the season began. He had 1 decent season, a rookie year with 40 points. He had a lot of warts. On top of that, Lundell went for 5  x $5m, and another center in that group wasn't far off that price. Rossi had to prove that he could take another step. 60 points in year 2 is a nice step up. The last quarter of the season was not. Rossi can play and succeed on the top line, but he is not the top line driver. I'm not sure he is a 2nd line driver, he needs help. This suggestion is ludicrous. 

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They could seek a trade. However, at Guerin’s end-of-season press conference, he said, “Our [defense] core is set. I’d like to focus on forwards.”

Trading Rossi for a defenseman increases a weakness without creating a strength. Furthermore, trading a player like Jonas Brodin to get a better return as part of a Rossi trade disrupts a defensive corps that “is set.” In doing so, the Wild would be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I don't believe anyone is suggesting that we trade out Brodin. I do think there have been suggestion about trading out Spurgeon. Trading Rossi for a defender is something conjured up here with Kalisha and you, nobody else is talking about it. They're talking about forwards. I take it back, one other national source had the idea that Vancouver could flip a defensive prospect and #15 in this year's draft for Rossi, which was a very unintelligent look at the Wild situation.

There are a couple of free agent centers who are aging who could help us out: Brock Nelson and Matt Duchene. Bringing back Nico Sturm also could help. Trading out Rossi for a Peterka is like trading to trade. Their essentially the same type of player. Trading out Brodin doesn't really help at all. Trading out Spurgeon while backfilling with Jiricek is a decent plan.

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Instead, he banked on director of amateur scouting Judd Brackett to find fallers who could become part of a winning core. Brackett worked with the picks Minnesota had after being one-and-done in the playoffs. That means taking Rossi and Buium, who dropped in the draft because of size, the lumbering Stramel, and Yurov, a wing they want to convert to center.

Nobody held a gun to Judd's head and made him pick the fallers. I do believe that Stramel and Kumpulainen were Guerin picks and he overruled Judd in that draft. Brackett has a long history of not taking size into account when he drafts. He's had some great hits, but the overlooking of Matthew Tkachuk raises a bunch of questions, specifically if he is the right fit to be ruling the Wild draft board. He didn't have to take Peart, he didn't have to take Kivijarhu, or Kalem Parker, or Pionk, all undersized guys. Same thing with the forwards, there were players who potentially fit our system better than Rossi, like Lundell took 2 picks later. But I see where we're going here.

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The Wild missed their chance to bottom out and build a contender like the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Florida Panthers did. Instead, Guerin must work with the talent in the organization. 

This is the conclusion, in essence, why didn't we just tank. For the Pens, they got the benefit of 2 top picks from a lockout and another bad season. Chicago built it without luck, but Florida did not build their dynasty this way. Sure, they got Huberdeau, Barkov and Ekblad with top picks, but it's Barkov and Ekblad and a bunch of trades and pickups that are left. 

But, for teams that decide to tear it down and go this route, there are just as many who aren't successful, especially with the draft lottery as it has been. Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, Utah/Arizona. Tanking doesn't guarantee you a great team, it's more like a 50/50 chance. 

Now let's see what Guerin was tasked to do: Stay competitive, make the playoffs, keep butts in the seats, and retool (because you can't say rebuild) on the fly. That is what his boss wanted and he pretty much delivered it. I think the new demand will now be make me a contender from his boss.

[Martin]

It's hard not feel like Rossi's placement on the 4th line was punishment from BG for Rossi rejecting his 5 x 5 offer. Regardless, if the intention is to trade him, you've just signaled to the league how much you value Rossi, reducing the likelihood you'll get comparable value in return. If it's your hope to still work out a deal with Rossi, well you made that all but impossible because you've disrespected a player who has done everything you've asked of him and then some. I don't get it.

[SkolWild73]

Well, everyone not wanting to get Brock Nelson can breathe a sigh of relief. (unless we trade for him, I guess).  He just resigned with the Avs for 3 years and $7.5M AAV.  Must be more moves coming for them.  They only have $1.2M in cap space and only 19 players.  Maybe the Necas rumors are true?

[Citizen Strife]

Nelson off the market.  Avs paying him 3y/7.5m AAV.  Dodged a bullet there.  Takes one center off the market ..and probably sets the market for what's to come.

[mnfaninnc]

Any interest in Matt Duchene? Dallas doesn't have cap either.

[Dean]

Billy is building a contender with  2 nd line center Fred g signed 3 more years with ntc and no Jo who shows up a few times a year and he gets ntc. 6 years of Billy and this is the crap they are coming out of buyouts with? 
   Fred an Jo Jo ruin your bottom six and make your top six impotent. They are worthless to a contender yet we are  running them back again. How does the worst analytical guy in playoffs still have a job on a team trying to win a round in playoffs? How does a guy who gets lost for a season get another chance on a team trying to win a round. Do these clowns watch playoff hockey ? If the did they would see these soft , weak pedestrians don’t get you anywhere. 
    My guess is free agency is going to be a disaster. Another Trenin. Billy is a fraud ! 

[Scalptrash]

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The Wild missed their chance to bottom out and build a contender like the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Florida Panthers did. Instead, Guerin must work with the talent in the organization.

Yep, perfect opportunity blown. This is required to build a true contender. Moneyball has never really worked, certainly not in hockey.

[Scalptrash]

25 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Any interest in Matt Duchene? Dallas doesn't have cap either.

If you like old guys on the down slope. Oh wait....

[ArizonaWildFan]

Not sure if I read it, or heard it, or just making it up... but word is that Brock Nelson saw the Johansson signing and called his agent to work something out with Colorado ASAP. Players know better than us 'experts' what's going on. The Johansson signing is not something a franchise with Cup aspirations would do.

[SkolWild73]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Any interest in Matt Duchene? Dallas doesn't have cap either.

I did have interest in him, depending on price, but after this playoffs I am not sure.  He only has 37 points in 69 career playoff games and I know this year is just one year, but he was -16 in 18 games.  Not sure how that is even possible.  Of course Wyatt Johnston was -16 too.  

[ArizonaWildFan]

Brock Nelson's comments after signing with Colorado:

“I’d like to thank the Kroenke family, (president of hockey operations) Joe Sakic, (general manager) Chris MacFarland, (coach) Jared Bednar and our coaching staff for the opportunity.

 

“Obviously, the way the season ended last year was disappointing, but I can’t wait to get back on the ice soon and continue to push for our goal of winning the Stanley Cup.”

Brock Nelson's comments if he would have signed with the Wild:

“I’d like to thank the Leipold family, (president of hockey operations) Bill Guerin, (general manager) Bill Guerin, (coach) John Hynes and their coaching staff for the opportunity.

“Obviously, the way the season ended last year was disappointing, but I can’t wait to get back on the ice soon and continue to push for their goal of making the playoffs and maybe winning a first round playoff series.”

[Citizen Strife]

Good god.  Project any harder, and I think the doomers would blast off into space on their own farts.  Lighten up.

Edited Wednesday at 08:29 PM by Citizen Strife

[WIWild]

The FO only said that we would think it was Christmas. They left out that it would be White Elephant.

[Citizen Strife]

I don't think anyone throwing shade is gonna be happy with any move made.  I can picture it *Satirical purposes only*

Sign Kap and Rossi: BUT HE PROMISED UPGRADES!  WE GOT NO MONEY FOR TAGE!

Trade Rossi for Peterka: BUT ROSSI IS A CENTER!

Sign Boeser: BUT BOESER SUCKS! COULDA PUT OHGREN AND YUROV, OR KHUSNUTDINOV THERE!

Trade the farm for Tage, Larkin, Robo, Brady, but the Wild still come up zhort: WELL THERE GOES OUR DEPTH PLAYERS FOR FIVE YEARS!

Scorched earth , but Kap, Boldy, etc all leave: OH GOD THIS TEAM IS TERRIBLE!  NO ONE GONNA WANNA PLAY WITH 50 FIRST ROUNDERS AND AHL DEPTH! KAP ALREADY LEFT!

Winning is hard people.  Take a breath and be glad the Wild even gets playoff runs.  Some teams never do

 

[Patrick]

4 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'm not in the trade Rossi camp because he's too small. But this article is full of opinions stated as facts.

 

Proceeds to state a bunch of opinions as facts.

[mnfaninnc]

It now appears that any upgrades will have to be done via trade. The good news is we do have cap space. Stars and Avs have got some serious cap issues. The Wild is sitting at just under $16m with 20/23 spots filled. 

Time to start identifying some good contracts to take over!

[mnfaninnc]

4 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Proceeds to state a bunch of opinions as facts.

I didn't write an article stating opinions as facts, I wrote a comment calling out opinions that were stated as facts. And then added my own opinions 😎

[Willy the poor boy]

Glad someone signed Brock, I'd rather have Rossi at 7 -7 1/2 than Brock at 7 1/2... Now all we need to do is sign Boeser for 5 mill or someone else sign him at 7.

But, believe it or not, I did hear Cory Perry mentioned along with the Wild. I think Cory is 40 now so that does make more sense for Guerin... 🙃

Edited Wednesday at 11:25 PM by Willy the poor boy

[JJwild]

Billy made his bed, he has to sleep in it. Dumping Rossi is just a bad idea at this point, the return isn't there. Making wings play center isn't going to work either. Draft for centers and develop them properly in Iowa. I don't see Rossi getting a Boldy contract either. I don't have an answer for Rossi issue, he is skilled but the issue is size, he isn't striking fear into anyone but he can sure annoy BOTH sides of the ice. If he could bulk up that would be the answer. He is just a small annoying dog nipping at ankles, nothing major till he hits a vein. Hopefully this gets figured out.... trade, sign, or? Best wishes to everyone involved.

[Willy the poor boy]

8 minutes ago, JJwild said:

Billy made his bed, he has to sleep in it. Dumping Rossi is just a bad idea at this point, the return isn't there. Making wings play center isn't going to work either. Draft for centers and develop them properly in Iowa. I don't see Rossi getting a Boldy contract either. I don't have an answer for Rossi issue, he is skilled but the issue is size, he isn't striking fear into anyone but he can sure annoy BOTH sides of the ice. If he could bulk up that would be the answer. He is just a small annoying dog nipping at ankles, nothing major till he hits a vein. Hopefully this gets figured out.... trade, sign, or? Best wishes to everyone involved.

I think 5'-5" 140# Cole Caufield is signed for just under 8. Rossi isn't that small and he goes in front of the net goes into the corners and fights for the puck. It's a mistake to think he isn't worth it because he's 1 or 2 inches short of some 'so called' cutoff line...

[mnhockeyfan03]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

It now appears that any upgrades will have to be done via trade. The good news is we do have cap space. Stars and Avs have got some serious cap issues. The Wild is sitting at just under $16m with 20/23 spots filled. 

Time to start identifying some good contracts to take over!

Trades are the answer.  Also trade Spurgeon to free up another 7.5mm.  There should be no shortage of options.  Just don’t sign Boeser.  It will be a huge mistake 

[TimeforacupinMN]

Why doesn’t anyone talk about Rossi was hurt and that is why he played on the fourth line.  What am I missing?  If he wasn’t hurt, I’m certain he would have played second line center in playoffs

[1Brotherbill]

Rossi had a decent rookie year.  Didn't lead the league in scoring but had a decent year.  Second year he scored 60 points.  He also had large chunks of time where he was invisible.  So for those who think the Wild are handling this poorly, they are not.  The Wild offered a 5 for 25 deal.  Which might seem low and with the new financials it might be, but the base offer is exactly what a developing player who has some holes in his game gets offered.  His agent has a tendency to get his players contracts that are expensive for the talent of the player.  The Wild don't want to over spend on someone who might turn out to be a bust.  So, the negotiations come into play.  The Wild hold all the cards in this.  Rossi can't play anywhere but Minnesota unless he gets traded or an RFA offer sheet comes in and the Wild choose not to match it.  He could play overseas, but the Wild still control his rights.  I'm willing to bet Rossi wants to play in the NHL.  

So what does this mean.  The Wild will offer him a qualifying offer.  Rossi can go see if he can get an offer sheet from another team.  There are a few that are cup contenders that need scoring depth.  So, the offer sheet might come in above 7 million.  Being that the free agent class is week this is more than likely a possibility.  Which means the Wild can sign Rossi by matching to offer sheet or let him go and get a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick in next years draft.  Not a terrible outcome, but probably not what the Wild want to happen. 

That is where the trade idea comes in.  Because teams who want a player like Rossi might want to just give up one or two NHL players for him instead of the compensation picks.  Now if this happens the Wild need at least one center coming back in this deal.  Hopefully someone who can win a draw or two.  Rossi could also be traded with a few prospects that we all know won't play in St. Paul for the same type of NHL bodies.  Teams are often reluctant to trade away young centers with size, so it is unlikely Rossi gets traded for a larger faster more skilled center. 

In the end Rossi is probably going to sign with the Wild for around 7 million and that is going to be the Christmas morning for the Wild.  

 

[MacGyver]

5 hours ago, 1Brotherbill said:

The Wild offered a 5 for 25 deal.  Which might seem low and with the new financials it might be, but the base offer is exactly what a developing player who has some holes in his game gets offered.

This might be true if you are a team other than the Minnesota Wild who desperately need true centers. A 5X5 offer from Billy is a ok if we can get you on the cheap we will keep you around and let you play fourth line minutes kind of an offer. Offer him 6X1 or 2 on a prove it bridge deal and see what the response is. If he turns that down it's clearly a broken relationship. If he takes it and proves it and still wants out as a UFA like Fiala did we get to watch Billy fume again. Win win!  I think Rossi wants out from under this team at this point. I expect this fiasco to be over in two weeks or so with Rossi being gone for a underwhelming return. The return isn't there because Billy showed his cards to the league as not being interested in Rossi. 

Rossi wants or at least wanted to be here. This alone makes him a unicorn for the Wild.