Article: The Johansson Deal Shows That New Freedoms Won't Break Guerin's Old Habits

[SkolWild73]

13 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

With all the signings and how they conduct business, how do you, honestly believe this. Dude you are either delusional or billy himself. Hes resigning the old vets, where are the young guys fitting in?

Again, what has changed in 6 yrs? He had a 5yr plan, it's now on year 7 and nothing looks better. You guys either all like kool-aid or you are NOT intelligent. Same thing the last 20. Figure it out. 

Lighten up man.  Just because someone shares a different opinion than you is no reason to say they are not intelligent or delusional.  

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

With all the signings and how they conduct business, how do you, honestly believe this. Dude you are either delusional or billy himself. Hes resigning the old vets, where are the young guys fitting in?

Again, what has changed in 6 yrs? He had a 5yr plan, it's now on year 7 and nothing looks better. You guys either all like kool-aid or you are NOT intelligent. Same thing the last 20. Figure it out.

Frustration over an $800k signing? Really? It's not about drinking Kool-Aid or our intelligence, it's that you can see the progress and you'd have to be very biased not to. This isn't the NFL where you plug and play your draft picks, it's much more like baseball where they are on a 5 year trajectory from their draft. 

Certainly you can see the method of drafting the next group, developing the next group and eventually putting the next group in the lineup. I'm pretty sure most of us here can count to 5, which is the very year where Rossi should be making an impact. I'd say he was a year early, but a top 10 pick should be a little early. 

Goalies and defenders take a little longer to develop, so that needs to be factored in too. I see a huge difference in the methods.

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Enforceror said:

The Trenin contract is the only one I have heartburn about. 

The one thing I noticed about Trenin, and for that matter several of our bigger players, is that they kind of cruised through the regular season and then got real physical in the playoffs. I see this with a lot of teams, the big guys mostly save it for playoffs. 

I thought Trenin had a real good playoffs, and that line should have gotten more TOI. Rossi was good, so was Trenin, Breezers looked a little slow to me. 

[Pewterschmidt]

3 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

The one thing I noticed about Trenin, and for that matter several of our bigger players, is that they kind of cruised through the regular season and then got real physical in the playoffs.

While I in no way am excusing t-bags 82 games during reg season (he was not an nhl’r player as evidenced by the healthy scratches), I’ll guess he played Fred g hockey to save his body for playoffs.  Again t-bag is on par with NoJo and Fred as my least favorite Wild players, but at least I can make some sense for his 6 game transformation in playoffs into a nhl contributor

[Need4speed99]

9 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I don't see it at all. Guerin has not bought 2 high priced free agents yet. Guerin has not really played the kids much, like Fletcher did when he brought them up maybe a touch too soon. Guerin has not used the kids as trade pieces yet either.

What Guerin has done is acquire a high prospect in Jiricek using a prospect in Hunt. The ceiling on Jiricek is far higher than anything Hunt could do. 

Guerin does have plenty of older vets on the team, but those were value signings, not supposed to be the missing link. He has resisted trading out his prospects at the TDL for help to make the playoffs, and instead has traded out mostly picks and guys he had rights to but were unsigned. 

To be fair, Fletcher also traded out picks, but there is a big difference in a Pominville trade and a Jiricek trade. Even then, guys like Chris Stewart and Matt Moulson were traded for, and if you want to get picky, I guess you could put the Nyquist deal in that category.

Nino, Coyle, Granlund, Brodin, Zucker part time, Dumba, Scandella, Spurgeon and Haula showed up about the same time. Right now we've had Rossi and MaRat show up from '20 and other guys get a cup of coffee. Prospects that get traded out are players that Guerin has evaluated, projects their ceiling and moves on. But for the most part, he marinates them in the minors far longer than Fletcher ever did. 

Now, if we go with 5-6 rookies next season, that will be like Fletcher's big move. The difference in that will be the time they've had in the minors to get ready. I would expect more from this group than Fletcher's group based upon that. 

While Fletcher drafted him, Guerin is the one who got Kaprizov over here. And, much of what Guerin did in the early years was to clean up the mess left by Fletcher and Fenton. I'll cede the point that Fletcher had to clean up a mess too, but that was from just 1 GM. Fenton actually got rid of the wrong players.

Jiricek has such a high ceiling he couldn't get playing time?! Not playing the kids early, who besides Sheppard(for fletch) was there? Guerin doesn't even give them a chance.

Guerin evaluates them? If he is so great why did we have one of the best prospect pools yet yield next to nothing? And NONE of them play.

His main hits were other gms works or getting lucky in a trade that was not developed by the wild.

He didn't bring in 2 overpriced vers, no he brought in a ton of them. For bottom 6 players the Wild have too much tied into that. They have had largely the same team the last 4 yrs. Where have they gone, what changed? Yes I like foligno and Hartman but what they make vs contribution for bottom 6 guys, dumb. Trenin and Freddy shouldn't be on the team. Zuccs is only good/decent if he plays with kap. He's also way smaller than a lot of prospects and Rossi, but we should trade that.

Again, same team 4 years, all Guerin. Same result and same trading players one gm doesn't like. How has anything ACTUALLY changed. 

 

[Need4speed99]

9 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Frustration over an $800k signing? Really? It's not about drinking Kool-Aid or our intelligence, it's that you can see the progress and you'd have to be very biased not to. This isn't the NFL where you plug and play your draft picks, it's much more like baseball where they are on a 5 year trajectory from their draft. 

Certainly you can see the method of drafting the next group, developing the next group and eventually putting the next group in the lineup. I'm pretty sure most of us here can count to 5, which is the very year where Rossi should be making an impact. I'd say he was a year early, but a top 10 pick should be a little early. 

Goalies and defenders take a little longer to develop, so that needs to be factored in too. I see a huge difference in the methods.

And we'll, I've mentioned developing players is a major issue and part of the organization. They can't seem to do that in the last 6 yrs. 

Progress? That's your argument? You really need to evaluate how you present an argument/insult and learn.

Missing playoffs and one and done, WHAT changed? Did you actually think your response through? 

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

He didn't bring in 2 overpriced vers, no he brought in a ton of them.

N4S, if you're going to argue the point, then quote it correctly. I didn't say overpriced vets, I said 2 high priced vets in Parise and Suter. He has a bunch of bottom 6 vets who may or may not be overpriced right now. 

I know we are loaded up with a bunch of vets that now need to be traded out. They were here as transition players and for 4 years of cap penalties were value oriented signings. Somehow, this group made it to the playoffs 4/5 years which was Guerin's goal. 

I don't know why you don't understand this specific concept: Guerin promised us competitive teams throughout the buyouts. By definition, this was a team to be grouped in a 12-17 ranked team which is exactly competitive. They overperformed in the regular season. Essentially, they had no upper gear to shift to in the playoffs.

You can be sore that the Wild didn't tank in 2021-25 and have top 5 picks those years. I understand that take. But this was definitely not Guerin's mission and was also not his boss'  mission who demanded playoffs. What that results in are guys who fell in the draft or guys who need longer to develop (ie taking the whole 5 years). If you combine that with a lost developmental year and a half due to covid, you can understand the need for that extra development. 

I'm expecting '21 and '22 drafts to have a role this season. Goalies generally take longer but The Wall should be ready. Lambos probably isn't, but I do think Jiricek, OgZ and Yurov will be if they get the opportunity with a decent runway. Nobody from '23 is close and a bonus pickup in '24 should also be ready. 

In your eyes, was tanking the something different you were looking for? Anything else is just the same? And, for that matter, you talk about Sheppard who wasn't even a Fletcher pick. Sure he was a bust as was much of Risebrough's draft picks. That's not even on Fletcher. 

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

Progress? That's your argument? You really need to evaluate how you present an argument/insult and learn.

Missing playoffs and one and done, WHAT changed? Did you actually think your response through? 

Yes, progress. The organization is far better now than it was when Guerin took over. The progress has been incremental. It's easy to see if you're looking for it.

What were you expecting from a promised "competitive" team? That's the definition and what you were promised. 1 and dones are precisely what competitive teams do. We were not promised a contender in these past 5 years. If that was your expectation, then that is what needed to be adjusted. 

[Pewterschmidt]

12 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

The organization is far better now than it was when Guerin took over.

I’m not sure I can agree this core is a lot better than the Coyle/granny/nino/zucker core.  I’m not including 97 because he’s clearly an outlier that bill was beneficiary of fletchers pick/timing.  Ek/bolds/ancient Zuc/nojo/soon gone Rossi…???

but P-tractor, you’re ignoring the premium prospects.  Our prospect pool is like Bigfoot.  I’ll believe it when I see it. 

Edited June 13 by Pewterschmidt

[mnfaninnc]

5 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I’m not sure I can agree this core is a lot better than the Coyle/granny/nino/zucker core.

As I'd said earlier, other than Zucker, Fenton had sold off those above assets, so Guerin really didn't have access to those guys. I thought the above mentioned guys were probably promoted to the N a year ahead of time. 

I can't remember where it was reported, but those guys were accelerated and part of the reason we captured Parise and Suter in free agency. Fenton obviously was tearing things down but kept the wrong guys. This is not Guerin's fault. But, the remnants of the Zucker trade is, and to date we have Lambos left. After seeing Lambos in person, I believe he needs 1 more year and will be ready.

I think it's also worth remembering that the reason why those guys may have been brought up early is because after the Parise/Suter signings, OCL demanded playoffs, and Fletcher was almost forced into improvements in that lockout shortened year. Apparently, Pominville was the only guy he could get, a goal scorer who was allergic to a bodycheck. This was reported, I think, by Russo as the motivation for the trade. 

So, it is of no surprise that we are also speculating that during the buyout years, Guerin also promised a competitive team and playoff invitations. There was no promise for moving further along, but anything could happen.

[Need4speed99]

11 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Yes, progress. The organization is far better now than it was when Guerin took over. The progress has been incremental. It's easy to see if you're looking for it.

What were you expecting from a promised "competitive" team? That's the definition and what you were promised. 1 and dones are precisely what competitive teams do. We were not promised a contender in these past 5 years. If that was your expectation, then that is what needed to be adjusted. 

Billy's whole thing was a 5 yr plan to contend.... again, might wanna pay attention.

[Need4speed99]

11 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

N4S, if you're going to argue the point, then quote it correctly. I didn't say overpriced vets, I said 2 high priced vets in Parise and Suter. He has a bunch of bottom 6 vets who may or may not be overpriced right now. 

I know we are loaded up with a bunch of vets that now need to be traded out. They were here as transition players and for 4 years of cap penalties were value oriented signings. Somehow, this group made it to the playoffs 4/5 years which was Guerin's goal. 

I don't know why you don't understand this specific concept: Guerin promised us competitive teams throughout the buyouts. By definition, this was a team to be grouped in a 12-17 ranked team which is exactly competitive. They overperformed in the regular season. Essentially, they had no upper gear to shift to in the playoffs.

You can be sore that the Wild didn't tank in 2021-25 and have top 5 picks those years. I understand that take. But this was definitely not Guerin's mission and was also not his boss'  mission who demanded playoffs. What that results in are guys who fell in the draft or guys who need longer to develop (ie taking the whole 5 years). If you combine that with a lost developmental year and a half due to covid, you can understand the need for that extra development. 

I'm expecting '21 and '22 drafts to have a role this season. Goalies generally take longer but The Wall should be ready. Lambos probably isn't, but I do think Jiricek, OgZ and Yurov will be if they get the opportunity with a decent runway. Nobody from '23 is close and a bonus pickup in '24 should also be ready. 

In your eyes, was tanking the something different you were looking for? Anything else is just the same? And, for that matter, you talk about Sheppard who wasn't even a Fletcher pick. Sure he was a bust as was much of Risebrough's draft picks. That's not even on Fletcher. 

I said overpriced as in they have a few. No one would have paid a few of those guys what they are making. Not talking Parise or super now.

Again, look back. one of guerins FIRST Things was to be a contender and winner withing 5 yrs. Dude, you must be a billy apologist. He's had 7 yrs and they are RIGHT where they have been. 

They haven't given the kids a chance and play vets. Show me anything over the last few yrs to say otherwise.

I saw a promised concept, unfulfilled. How can't you grasp any of that? Been watching the Wild a long time, same MO. You talked about Shepard but never presented a bunch of other top prospects that got a chance and back up what you are saying. Just told me I was wrong and it changed. When did that exactly happen. 

[mnfaninnc]

13 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

Billy's whole thing was a 5 yr plan to contend.... again, might wanna pay attention.

Yes, and according to reports that started in '23-24, so apparently you're not paying attention. This year was supposed to be year 2.

[mnfaninnc]

12 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

They haven't given the kids a chance and play vets. Show me anything over the last few yrs to say otherwise.

Agreed. This has been one of my frustrations. Some of the kids have gotten a cup of coffee, MaRat got more. The mandate was to make the playoffs, and Guerin has hidden the kids in minor leagues and not put too much pressure on them.

If you want to go through differences, during the Fletcher era there were 2 places that Fletcher hid guys, Sweden and College. He didn't really use Iowa to develop. It wasn't a horrible plan, because the ELCs slid to an older player. However, it also meant that you had no control over the development. 

Guerin has used both of these leagues + Iowa and the K. I think you would argue that Iowa has been really bad at developing these guys, or at least very slow. I would agree with that assessment.

12 hours ago, Need4speed99 said:

I saw a promised concept, unfulfilled. How can't you grasp any of that? Been watching the Wild a long time, same MO. You talked about Shepard but never presented a bunch of other top prospects that got a chance and back up what you are saying. Just told me I was wrong and it changed. When did that exactly happen. 

Originally, I think the promised concept of a 5 year plan was mentioned after he took over. However, with a decimated prospect pool, an aging team, and buyouts soon to come, it took some time to move out the old and draft in the new. This concept was amended to year 1 being last year in that offseason. My best guess says that Guerin took a year to learn about the organization and he discovered it was far worse than he thought. I don't know why he declared that last year was year 1, but that's what he did.

Sheppard was a guy you brought up and I said that wasn't fair. Under Risebrough, we had several high picks that were whiffs. 

2000 #3 was Gaborik         hit    Schultz was also a hit at #33

2001 #6 was Koivu             hit

2002 #8 was PMB              hit

2003 #20 was Burns          hit

2004 #12 was Thielen       whiff   and this starts a string of whiffs   Stoner hit

2005 #4 was Pouliot          whiff for us but played elsewhere

2006 #6 was Sheppard     whiff,  Cal Clutterbuck was a hit

2007 #16 was Gillies         whiff

2008 #23 was Cuma         whiff, Scandella is a hit

2009 #16 was Leddy         whiff for us but hit for Chicago, Haula was a hit

This begins the Fletcher era. Risebrough had a history of bringing up the 1st round picks too early, had a reputation of a terrible scouting team, and just about whiffed on all picks past a 1st round. All of these picks are not on Fletcher but Risebrough. 

Fletcher had a sketchy draft record past the 1st round, but he usually hit on those. I think the biggest problem Fletcher had was not knowing a locker room, and some of his TDL pieces didn't really fit what we needed. At present, Fletcher and Flahr were our best drafting team in team history only because Guerin and Judd have an incomplete (the guys are not ready yet). 

Going through the Parise/Suter years, the black hole that was the '04-08 drafts constantly came back to haunt us in depth. There is a change in ownership here too, and OCL put a premium on making the playoffs, something he has not backed off from even in the Guerin years. 

N4S, you put a lot of the weight on Guerin here. But the reality is that while he was retooling (because rebuilding was not to be spoken of) he was also having to make the playoffs which was successful 4/5 years. I don't think when Guerin took over he thought he'd have to tear down the team, reconfigure a toxic locker room, buyout 2 stars and essentially rebuild the team. He had no prospect pool to draw from either since the later years of Fletcher saw another black hole in prospects, mainly due to selling off the pick or a weak draft. 

If you want to hold Guerin's feet to the fire over the original statement, I think you'll be disappointed for the next couple of years. At the buyouts, the statement was pushed back from "contender" to "competitive" for the 5 years of heavy lifting. The window should crack open this upcoming season, and I'd expect a lot more pressure to get into the 2nd round. I do expect us to, again, be vying for a WC slot, but this will be due to many rookies in the lineup. At some point the kids have to be inserted and doing it at the same time lets them learn and bond together. The 2nd amendment came last offseason that that was year 1. His boss has given him this runway, perhaps that is where your frustration should lean towards?

 

[Need4speed99]

On 6/14/2025 at 11:27 AM, mnfaninnc said:

Agreed. This has been one of my frustrations. Some of the kids have gotten a cup of coffee, MaRat got more. The mandate was to make the playoffs, and Guerin has hidden the kids in minor leagues and not put too much pressure on them.

If you want to go through differences, during the Fletcher era there were 2 places that Fletcher hid guys, Sweden and College. He didn't really use Iowa to develop. It wasn't a horrible plan, because the ELCs slid to an older player. However, it also meant that you had no control over the development. 

Guerin has used both of these leagues + Iowa and the K. I think you would argue that Iowa has been really bad at developing these guys, or at least very slow. I would agree with that assessment.

Originally, I think the promised concept of a 5 year plan was mentioned after he took over. However, with a decimated prospect pool, an aging team, and buyouts soon to come, it took some time to move out the old and draft in the new. This concept was amended to year 1 being last year in that offseason. My best guess says that Guerin took a year to learn about the organization and he discovered it was far worse than he thought. I don't know why he declared that last year was year 1, but that's what he did.

Sheppard was a guy you brought up and I said that wasn't fair. Under Risebrough, we had several high picks that were whiffs. 

2000 #3 was Gaborik         hit    Schultz was also a hit at #33

2001 #6 was Koivu             hit

2002 #8 was PMB              hit

2003 #20 was Burns          hit

2004 #12 was Thielen       whiff   and this starts a string of whiffs   Stoner hit

2005 #4 was Pouliot          whiff for us but played elsewhere

2006 #6 was Sheppard     whiff,  Cal Clutterbuck was a hit

2007 #16 was Gillies         whiff

2008 #23 was Cuma         whiff, Scandella is a hit

2009 #16 was Leddy         whiff for us but hit for Chicago, Haula was a hit

This begins the Fletcher era. Risebrough had a history of bringing up the 1st round picks too early, had a reputation of a terrible scouting team, and just about whiffed on all picks past a 1st round. All of these picks are not on Fletcher but Risebrough. 

Fletcher had a sketchy draft record past the 1st round, but he usually hit on those. I think the biggest problem Fletcher had was not knowing a locker room, and some of his TDL pieces didn't really fit what we needed. At present, Fletcher and Flahr were our best drafting team in team history only because Guerin and Judd have an incomplete (the guys are not ready yet). 

Going through the Parise/Suter years, the black hole that was the '04-08 drafts constantly came back to haunt us in depth. There is a change in ownership here too, and OCL put a premium on making the playoffs, something he has not backed off from even in the Guerin years. 

 

N4S, you put a lot of the weight on Guerin here. But the reality is that while he was retooling (because rebuilding was not to be spoken of) he was also having to make the playoffs which was successful 4/5 years. I don't think when Guerin took over he thought he'd have to tear down the team, reconfigure a toxic locker room, buyout 2 stars and essentially rebuild the team. He had no prospect pool to draw from either since the later years of Fletcher saw another black hole in prospects, mainly due to selling off the pick or a weak draft. 

If you want to hold Guerin's feet to the fire over the original statement, I think you'll be disappointed for the next couple of years. At the buyouts, the statement was pushed back from "contender" to "competitive" for the 5 years of heavy lifting. The window should crack open this upcoming season, and I'd expect a lot more pressure to get into the 2nd round. I do expect us to, again, be vying for a WC slot, but this will be due to many rookies in the lineup. At some point the kids have to be inserted and doing it at the same time lets them learn and bond together. The 2nd amendment came last offseason that that was year 1. His boss has given him this runway, perhaps that is where your frustration should lean towards?

 

 

[Need4speed99]

16 minutes ago, Need4speed99 said:

 

Sorry wouldn't let me respond to the last few.

So what has changed? He went 0 for 4 in the 1st round and missed the playoffs completely. They only seem to want vets in there who are 4th liners playing on the 2nd. 

Rossi put up numbers besting both Freddy and jo jo. He did it on the lowest line. Where do we get to see what some of these kids can do, given the same Chances?

It has been the same for 20 years. The results have been the same. 1 and done,save for a year. The playoff teams just go after our 1st line, shut them down. Then what. Theses vets aren't pushing any needles.this team will be the same next year and the year after. If they sign a Duchesne, Bennet, or a boeser, much the same just they are stuck with old vets in long term contracts. All the aforementioned want long term deals. You are right back in Parise/suter territory. Good players, not elite and by the time the deals are up WELL past their prime.