Article: Does Bill Guerin Have the Right Vision For the Wild?

[mnfaninnc]

5 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

52 year old broken repaired Spurge for a middle six C?  Ok mnfan I’ll assume you had a brain injury while you were gone

Spurgeon isn't broken yet, and Danielson isn't yet a middle 6 C. He is projected that way, but is still on the Griffins roster. If you pair in Spurgy below Seider, and Spurgy gives you that missing leadership to get to the playoffs, it's a decent trade for both parties. But then, we'd have to continue to develop Danielson.

[samwilley23]

On 5/21/2025 at 12:56 PM, raithis said:

The article says we've only brought in older players, preventing the ascension of younger players while also citing a number of other younger players that didn't work out.  Younger players have gotten chances.  It's not just Addison and Khusnutdinov that received playing time.  Players like Hunt, Walker, Beckman, Raska, and others were given chances and never showed that they belonged up in the NHL.  It's not like prospects aren't getting chances.  Even Rossi was given multiple chances before he got to the point where he showed he could be a successful everyday NHLer.

The thing that really grinds my gears though is these prospects can't be expected to do anything if they're buried on the 3rd and 4th lines. Rossi scored 3 points in the playoffs while playing with Trenin and Brazeau. I'd say that's pretty good for basically carrying the line's offense. And all the guys you named never played or only got 1 or 2 shifts on the 1st and 2nd line. It's hard to develop and flourish when you're being forced to play with 4th liners 

[Butski29]

I don't think Guerin really knows what he is doing at this point.  Hynes just keeps burning out the top two lines every game.  Overmatched as a coach.  The Wild have had the luxury of playing the youth and seeing what they have, knowing full well, that the fan base would approve of that.  Instead, they keep extending older players and include no move and modified move deals.  They shot themselves in the foot.  If we would have played some of these guys, we would have a better idea what we really have and we wouldn't have dumped a boat load of picks to get guys we aren't going to keep.  They can't offer sheet anyone now either because they don't have their own picks.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

On 5/22/2025 at 11:10 AM, mnfaninnc said:

They weren't afraid to trade Huberdeau to acquire Tkachuk, a franchise changing move. They brought in Reinhardt and he got even better. Somebody knew who to target and how they would fit their system.

This seems like where the Wild are with Rossi. He's a good player, but they might believe they need to alter the future by including him in a deal.

Huberdeau had been above 1 PPG for 4 seasons at the time of that trade, but they still traded him for a player they thought could do more to  help them win. Until we see what Guerin does with the salary cap shackles removed, it seems reasonable to keep an open mind about moving guys out for better fits.

[mnfaninnc]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

Huberdeau had been above 1 PPG for 4 seasons at the time of that trade, but they still traded him for a player they thought could do more to  help them win.

This point is something that doesn't really get discussed around here in full. Huberdeau was a very productive player in the Florida lineup. So was Weegar. He had better production than Tkachuk, and Tkachuk had 104 points in his last year with Calgary which was a really good lineup.

But, Matthew Tkachuk and Brady Tkachuk both have something that goes way beyond the production stats. People look at a guy like Rossi and say "why give up on a player who had a 60 point sophomore season?" He might hit 80 points next season. 

Many here do not see the full impact a Tkachuk brings to the lineup! It's way more than simply points, it's a lot of intangibles that have to do with attitude that is contagious. It's energy, effort, and even crossing a line while competing. These types of guys make everyone better, and their effort better. 

You just can't sit there and look at points, while scoring more goals gets you a win, but there are other important things that lead to goals that never show up on a scoresheet. If you don't have those players who can play in the top 6 and do the dirty work, you're team will not be successful, especially at playoff time. This is the #1 thing that is missing from this team in games 4-7 in the playoffs. And we've got to get guys who will do this. Currently, we do not have anyone within the organization who can provide this, at least that is close. And we don't really spend draft capital on players who could do it. Instead, we've got a bunch of skill players who are too small as a collection.

To win 16 games in the postseason, it takes a tremendous amount of brutality. Almost every player is playing hurt. We need to have guys who can absorb punishment as well as dish it out while at the same time can score.

[Pablo]

Its time to make some trades and build a dynasty. Start with some sort of trade combo with Rossi for Bowen Byram. Then find a Heavy skilled center man and hopefully Yurof is an instant NHL’r. 

Edited Saturday at 02:22 PM by Pablo

[mnhockeyfan03]

Matt Barzal now probably coming available.  Barzal and anders Lee would look sporty with the wild and Brock Nelson as well.  

[ArizonaWildFan]

On 5/23/2025 at 3:11 PM, mnfaninnc said:

Matthew Tkachuk and Brady Tkachuk both have something that goes way beyond the production stats

Agree, much more with M than B, though. Matthew is a very rare combination that you don't find often in hockey and I am trying to think of any current NHL'ers that are his equal. The closest the Wild have would be if Foligno and Ek merged into one and that still wouldn't match MT.

Good post, mnfaninnc.

[bean5302]

Guerin gets an A from me. There's no reason the Wild should even be competitive in recent seasons, let alone making the playoffs with the catastrophic cap hits from Suter and Parise.

2022 53-22-7, 113pts
2023 46-25-11, 103pts
2024 39-34-9, 87pts
2025 45-30-7, 97pts

The team has made the playoffs 3 of 4 years (yeah, everybody does, kinda), remaining competitive, even if a bit of a long shot in the playoffs. I do think it's time for them to make a run now. With $22MM in cap space to spend, the need to be crafty just to put a team together which might succeed is replaced by the legitimate option to build a team that you expect will succeed. A lot will depend on the Wild's highly ranked prospects.

I don't see any way Guerin could fall below a B or C grade no matter what happens this year considering just how good I think he's been weathering an insanely gross storm he was handed.

[Up North Guy]

34 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Guerin gets an A from me. There's no reason the Wild should even be competitive in recent seasons, let alone making the playoffs with the catastrophic cap hits from Suter and Parise.

2022 53-22-7, 113pts
2023 46-25-11, 103pts
2024 39-34-9, 87pts
2025 45-30-7, 97pts

The team has made the playoffs 3 of 4 years (yeah, everybody does, kinda), remaining competitive, even if a bit of a long shot in the playoffs. I do think it's time for them to make a run now. With $22MM in cap space to spend, the need to be crafty just to put a team together which might succeed is replaced by the legitimate option to build a team that you expect will succeed. A lot will depend on the Wild's highly ranked prospects.

I don't see any way Guerin could fall below a B or C grade no matter what happens this year considering just how good I think he's been weathering an insanely gross storm he was handed.

Interesting counter take to the general commentary on this site. I can agree with you to a certain extent, but the buildup of what look like boneheaded decisions and comments is quickly overtaking.

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, Up North Guy said:

Interesting counter take to the general commentary on this site. I can agree with you to a certain extent, but the buildup of what look like boneheaded decisions and comments is quickly overtaking.

Advice to Guerin: better to keep mouth shut and let everyone suspect your a moron than open it and confirm your a moron. 
Guerin get a C from this fan.  Pivotal summer where he has to resign 97 and win a couple trades without giving away Rossi.  
#dontbedumbbill

he gets his final grade this summer.  I’m not buying into the 10 year plan he’s selling to Leo and fans.  

[bean5302]

On 5/27/2025 at 12:10 PM, Up North Guy said:

Interesting counter take to the general commentary on this site. I can agree with you to a certain extent, but the buildup of what look like boneheaded decisions and comments is quickly overtaking.

The feeling is this team could have been better, maybe even should have been better if just a few decisions were different. The fact this team was close at all is seriously an accomplishment in the first place because it didn't have to be. It could have been so, so much worse. If Suter and Parise are here, is Kaprisov here in 2021 or do the Wild have to trade him because they're unable to put a competitive team on the ice and Kaprisov wants out? How was Guerin even able to navigate that? What about last year's questionable decision to bring back Gustavsson? Looks pretty good now. Beyond that, and I keep coming back to this because I think people are overlooking just how brutal it really is, but the dead cap hit means aggressive and risky decisions for a team looking to be competitive. They're not all going to work out. There are going to be forced bad decisions in there. I don't know of a single bad, crippling decision Guerin has made. There are no Chris Davis signs an extension with the Balitmore Orioles moments.

Guerin's drafting has been solid with the potential of being great, he's kept the superstar face of the franchise on the roster despite the hardships and he's made bold decisions to correct the locker room and make the team better.

In some ways, I think the criticism heaped at Bill Guerin is like the Twins' Bill Smith. Smith was maligned for bad decisions with incredibly high expectations, but he was hamstrung from the moment he stepped into the role with Hunter already half out the door and Santana demanding absolutely the highest contract in baseball, and with a MiLB system which was totally gutted already with no pitching help on the way at all. Reviewing Smith's short tenure of drafting and signing gave the Twins Kepler, Sano, Gibson, Dozier, Polanco, he signed good to great extensions for Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Nathan and made some good free agency moves like Crede and Hudson as well as the acquisition of Pavano. There were bad moves he made, too, but overall, Smith actually did a pretty good job in retrospect. Smith was canned after 1 disastrous season where his two MVP players were both dealing with missing huge time and struggling due to injuries in conjunction with the staff ace falling apart with multiple players slumping and Smith's worst free agency bungle, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, taking center stage (it was only like $3MM a year).

When it comes to his personality, it's obvious BG is hot tempered. I've worked with those people in the past, and they've made it really hard sometimes, but whether or not they're admirable at their job makes a big difference to whether or not they're respected and understood.

In order to fairly evaluate Guerin, I need to be fair at analyzing what he inherited, what his limitations were, what fair expectations were with a worst case, best case, expected case analysis. Based on the rosters, the Wild have outperformed expectations in 3 of the last 4 seasons according to Hockey Reference's preseason odds. I think we can all agree there are scenarios where the Wild crater at the buyout point as a worst case. If the Wild lost Kaprisov, they'd have never recovered as far as I'm concerned. What about the Faber/Draft pick (Ohgren) for Fiala trade? Lookin' pretty good to me, haha. There are plenty of very good decisions and moves BG has made. Focusing on the forced errors just feels really unfair.