Article: Does Bill Guerin Have the Right Vision For the Wild?

[mnfaninnc]

13 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

While your post is a lot of conjecture it was an interesting read and I agree with most with exception on excerpt above.  There’s enough track record for this fan to say gauging talent may be bill’s Achilles heal.  Look at DAL ability to CONSISTENTLY find diamonds in late first and beyond rounds.  Will Ogz ever match Wyatt J’s level.  Doubtful and it’s more about mindset/attitude than standing long jump stats.  DAL has unlocked the code for identifying these players with that dog in ‘em.  I’d argue current Wild org isn’t even great at identifying physical talent let alone mental makeups of future NHL contributors.

I can see the misunderstanding. In my train of thought, I was specifically addressing talent already in the NHL, not scouting talent, that's a different skill, as I see it. But the misfits Billy has put together in the last 5 years has been enough to fulfill his promise of being "competitive." I don't think anyone can argue against the position of the sum was greater than the parts. Billy jigsawed this team together pretty well to get us there. Too bad they consistently only had 3 games left before all the duct tape fell off.

[Scalptrash]

19 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

If Kap signs, then Billy did his job

If Kap does not sign, then Bill failed

That's your criteria? If Kaprizov leaves it will be BECAUSE of Billy and his total mismanagement of this team. Players don't want to play for the Wild anymore, it's toxic. They went from a bad lockeroom to bad management.

[mnfaninnc]

16 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

We talk about finding players in their prime.  Brodin is in the thick of his prime.  Would sure hate to see him leave.  Our D-core looks much worse without him.  Spurgeon may have another year (maybe two) in him at a high level.  Which is why you deal him now.  Other teams will covet his play but we're not left with a high paid player that isn't playing up to his contract in 2 years.

I would suggest that Brodin may be more valuable than Spurgeon at this point due to his ability to cover up for mistakes. He would be a tremendous partner for Jiricek, and provide a ton of balance to that pairing. In my book, it's Spurgy who is more expendable, even though he probably was the best defender in the playoff series. 

[Pewterschmidt]

26 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

We talk about finding players in their prime.  Brodin is in the thick of his prime.  Would sure hate to see him leave.  Our D-core looks much worse without him.  Spurgeon may have another year (maybe two) in him at a high level.  Which is why you deal him now.  Other teams will covet his play but we're not left with a high paid player that isn't playing up to his contract in 2 years.  

This is the ole deal our garbage for other teams assets.  There are not many other bill G’s out there   I like both Spurge and Jo bro but Spurge is a 48 year old Smurf dman (not exactly a playoff beast) coming off major surgery and Jo bro is in his prime.  Which player returns a top 6 forward in trade and which does not?

add to that that Brackett has drafted dmen in every round since he got here so isn’t it time to expect contributions from these top tier prospects?

Edited May 22 by Pewterschmidt

[Pewterschmidt]

18 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I was specifically addressing talent already in the NHL, not scouting talent, that's a different skill

Nyquist and brazziere are this years diamonds.  Have I made my point or should we go back thru the years.  

[mnfaninnc]

Now let's look at how the Panthers were built-

2011-Jonathan Huberdeau 3rd overall, Vincent Trochek 3rd round

2012-Mike Matheson #23 overall

2013- Aleksander Barkov picked 2nd overall, MacKenzie Weegar 7th round

2014-Aaron Ekblad 1st overall

2015-Lawson Crouse 11th overall

2017-Owen Tippett 10th overall

2019-Spencer Knight 13th overall

2020-Anton Lundell 12th overall

This was the drafted players Zito had to work with. He took over after the draft and free agency period in 2020. 

In October, Zito signed Hinestroza, Gudas, Verhaeghe, and Wenneberg. In 2021, Panthers plucked Gustav Forsling off waivers. Brandon Montour was another low budget deal. They also signed Sam Reinhardt in UFA.

After the '21-22 season where Joel Queneville had been replaced forcibly with Andrew Burnette and been successful, Zito pivoted and brought in long time coach Paul Maurice that summer. I thought this would be a disaster and was completely wrong. 

Of course, summer of '22 is when M. Tkachuk was brought in giving up Huberdeau and Weegar. Here is the most interesting part of this whole research, Florida did not build this team through the draft. They didn't tank on purpose, they were just really bad in 2011-14. They went out and got a lot of players outside of their organization. 

Before Zito got there, they also scraped up Sam Bennett of the scrap heap. They put Bennett and Forsling and Verhaeghe in positions where they could succeed. They weren't afraid to trade Huberdeau to acquire Tkachuk, a franchise changing move. They brought in Reinhardt and he got even better. Somebody knew who to target and how they would fit their system. Was having the experience of Paul Maurice beneficial? Maybe. 

We should also look at advantages that the Panthers have over other franchises: No state sales tax, walking out to the beach each morning during the season, nice weather and plenty of things to do. In fact, out of the 4 teams left now, 2 have no state income tax, 1 has a flat rate of 4.5%, and the other offers you the chance to play with McDavid and Draisaitl. Those aren't bad calling cards. 

Florida also hasn't had a 1st round pick since Mackie Samoskevich in 2022. He's played 79 games with them. I don't think Florida has 1st rounders in the next few years either. It appears that the biggest hurdle that Zito has had to deal with is salary cap. He had enough salary cap to acquire Seth Jones this last trade deadline. Also Marchand and Vanecek. They have been using their picks as currency the last few years to acquire win now players.

Where does Guerin fit in this timeline?

I would say we are currently at the point of about 2020 for Florida. Huberdeau, Ekblad and Barkov were developed and playing well. Weegar was improving, Bobrovsky was in net, Bennett was a successful reclamation project. This team was on the rise. 

With Guerin, he came into a partial teardown under Fenton. But, Fenton got rid of the wrong sector. Guerin realized Staal and Koivu were too slow, Parise and Suter were winding down. He had an expansion draft coming up. This team would need to transition, yet he had the expectation of staying competitive to appease his boss and likely his own ego. 

This past year, we needed to resort to a very structured system that didn't have a lot of room for error. We were unlikely to be able to score our way out of trouble, so lots of pressure was put on the defense and goaltending. Is this the way forward? Will we stay this structured? Or, can we loosen up a bit to take advantage of gaining more scoring chances? 

If the vision is to stay the course this way, we will need larger players. Guys like Zuccarello, Rossi, Gaudreau, MaRat are not going to be successful trying to play big. But, with that size, we also need skill and speed, a hard trifecta to accomplish. John Hynes, to me, seems to be most comfortable in a system like he played us last season. Is Heinzy the right guy to coach this team moving forward?

One other tidbit while I was away was the mutual parting of ways with Sully and the Pens. I had thought that Guerin would be the 1st to call Sully for a role in this team. Yet, shortly after the parting of ways, Sullivan landed with NYR in a $6.5m gig, likely to tiers out of our range for coaching salary. I think we should all be watching out for NYR next season.

If Guerin were to change coaches, would it be better for him to go outside of his known comfort zone and get fresh eyes, or does he go down a similar path? Where would you go looking for the "right" coach?

 

[mnfaninnc]

40 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Nyquist and brazziere are this years diamonds.  Have I made my point or should we go back thru the years.

He whiffed on Nyquist, although, I do think that Nyquist did help some areas not shown in production. Breezers? I think it was a dart board shot as he knew MaRat and Lauko were not going to be re-signed. Perhaps this was a rapport building exercise in gaining Pasta later??? One can hope.

[mnfaninnc]

48 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

This is the ole deal our garbage for other teams assets.  There are not many other bill G’s out there   I like both Spurge and Jo bro but Spurge is a 48 year old Smurf dman (not exactly a playoff beast) coming off major surgery and Jo bro is in his prime.  Which player returns a top 6 forward in trade and which does not?

There's more to it than that. Spurgy is RHS too, coveted by teams. If we get a player for him, I think he'd be a great fit in Detroit playing behind Seider. Perhaps Detroit is feeling enough pressure to get back to the playoffs where they might give us a guy like Danielson who would likely be a mid 6 C. I would be happy with a deal like that, especially if we're not retaining money.

[Scalptrash]

9 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

If Guerin were to change coaches, would it be better for him to go outside of his known comfort zone and get fresh eyes, or does he go down a similar path? Where would you go looking for the "right" coach?

He will only change coaches if that new coach is also a puppet (same for Iowa, thus no change). If you think Billy isn't making ALL roster/starting decisions, you're a fool. I would guess that most experienced NHL coaches would not want to work for Billy. He has a reputation of being a bully and has too much control over everything. Is this funny or sad?

Leipold is a horrible judge of character and hasn't made a good hire yet, as far as I'm concerned. A great owner seeks the best for their franchise, that has never been the case for the Wild. When a Mike Sullivan becomes available and your current coach (and franchise) has never won anything, you jump at the chance. But Sullivan would never come to Minnesota as most cup winning coaches never will. Like it or not, this is flyover country. Not enough exposure and the rest of the country couldn't give two shits about the Wild.

Agree or not, Billy is a cancer, just like most other Leipold hires. He has too much power, too much control, and not enough smarts.

[mnfaninnc]

4 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

When a Mike Sullivan becomes available and your current coach (and franchise) has never won anything, you jump at the chance. But Sullivan would never come to Minnesota as most cup winning coaches never will.

Why would you say this? There's no evidence that this is the case outside of the $6.5m that he's making in NYC. This deal was put in place quickly which makes it seem as if his agent had put out "what if" feelers. NYR has some appeal too and may be a better fit for Sully. I'd say they are a little ahead of us on a rebuild. 

I will agree that the prestige of the Wild isn't as good as some other teams, but it's also not in the 30s. Did Billy and Sully or Sully's agent even have a conversation? The answer is likely tied up in the cone of silence.

[Scalptrash]

6 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Why would you say this? There's no evidence that this is the case outside of the $6.5m that he's making in NYC.

He said right away that he wanted to stay on the East coast. Maybe that was a hint or clue, if something was in the works already. Either way, there is no way he signs with the Wild under BG, unless the money was absurd and his contract stipulated "hands off" coaching decisions.

[mnfaninnc]

A couple of other things to clean up. Barkov is a tremendous center, but I see him more like an Ek than a Matthews. Florida does not have a Kaprizov type player on their team. 

I thought in the playoffs this season I saw Boldy hit a new gear. That is encouraging. I also thought that even though the result was the same, losing in 6, I thought we took the play more to Vegas this year, than we had in prior years. I also have to wonder if we took a lot out of Vegas for their next matchup where they looked pretty pedestrian against the Oilers. 

I feel like our trading or acquiring players is to fix a second scoring line. I think Florida did there big fix acquiring Reinhardt. M. Tkachuk was the move that changed the tier of this team. It took Florida another season to figure out how to play with this group. 

I think what we need is fixing line 2. I don't see why Rossi can't be that pivot, but find him 2 nice wings to play with. He and Zuccarello on the same line just isn't good. I would be willing to kick him out to wing and let Yurov center the line and then find a decent wing. Is OgZ that guy? Maybe not yet. I don't mind the idea of Brock Nelson coming on, and in a system like we currently play, he should thrive. I think our biggest issue is we have 8-9 bottom 6 players, which is simply too many. That's got to get thinned out to maybe 6 or 7.

I think our defense and goaltending look good going into the year and, so, the only tweaks that are needed are in the forward class. And, our 2nd line scoring has got to be able to produce in a playoff series, so they can't be munchkins. 

[MNCountryLife]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

I would suggest that Brodin may be more valuable than Spurgeon at this point due to his ability to cover up for mistakes. He would be a tremendous partner for Jiricek, and provide a ton of balance to that pairing. In my book, it's Spurgy who is more expendable, even though he probably was the best defender in the playoff series. 

Exactly!  

[mnfaninnc]

23 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

He said right away that he wanted to stay on the East coast.

All I saw was the transaction, I didn't hear anything else about how he felt or whatever. I think it's fair to say that he wanted to stay on the East Coast, a lot of people feel that way, but that not to say we can't get solid coaching talent where we're at. 

Pittsburgh isn't considered a big city, bright lights place either. Somehow Edmonton was able to capture Knoblauch who looks like a good coach. 

[Scalptrash]

The US just beat Finland in the quarterfinals 5-2. Zeev had a goal.

[MNCountryLife]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

This is the ole deal our garbage for other teams assets.  There are not many other bill G’s out there   I like both Spurge and Jo bro but Spurge is a 48 year old Smurf dman (not exactly a playoff beast) coming off major surgery and Jo bro is in his prime.  Which player returns a top 6 forward in trade and which does not?

add to that that Brackett has drafted dmen in every round since he got here so isn’t it time to expect contributions from these top tier prospects?

Spurgeon played very well last year.  No, he doesn't have the value Brodin.  But he still has value and people will look at his play this last year and getting a reliable D man that can also provide offensive upside can be rare.  Someone would bite.

[raithis]

25 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

He said right away that he wanted to stay on the East coast. 

There could be a lot of reasons for that.  Maybe his family didn't want to move and he wanted to be somewhere nearby or in the same time zone because of it.

That's probably more of a factor than we really think about.  Free agents (coaches and players) might frequently want to stay in an area so their family doesn't have to move and their kids can watch their games.  The entirely of the Eastern Conference is pretty much in one time zone and a lot of the teams are close to one another.

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

Perhaps this was a rapport building exercise in gaining Pasta later???

Pasta would choose MN because we landed the statue that anchored BOS farm club.  WTF mnfan is this a joke?  I’ll assume it’s an attempt at sarcasm 

[Pewterschmidt]

2 hours ago, mnfaninnc said:

where they might give us a guy like Danielson who would likely be a mid 6 C.

52 year old broken repaired Spurge for a middle six C?  Ok mnfan I’ll assume you had a brain injury while you were gone

[Pewterschmidt]

1 hour ago, MNCountryLife said:

But he still has value and people will look at his play this last year and getting a reliable D man that can also provide offensive upside can be rare.  Someone would bite.

I agree spurge can still play but re his trade value think more Goligoski trade value when we got him

[MNCountryLife]

8 minutes ago, Pewterschmidt said:

I agree spurge can still play but re his trade value think more Goligoski trade value when we got him

Do we care what we get for him.  I don't.  The $7M/AAV is what I am interested in.  We have Brodin, Faber, Mids, Jiricek and Buium as top 5.  We will be fine without him and we can afford a nice top 6 at the TDL on an expiring contract if Spurgeon is gone.

[ArizonaWildFan]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

I think our biggest issue is we have 8-9 bottom 6 players, which is simply too many

Exactly.

Who are the Wild's top 6 under contract now? IMO they have KK, Ek, Boldy and Rossi that would be top 6 on most other teams. The next tier would be Hartman, Foligno and Zuccarello and I don't know that any of those three would be top six on most successful NHL teams. It seems to depend on who they are paired with.

Finally, you have Gaudreau, Trenin and Hinostroza that are definitely bottom six at best and most likely bottom three. You also have Ohgren and Yurov to consider as unknown commodities.

If I 'm the GM, I get KK's extension signed and re-sign Rossi on July 1st. I can make trades up until the deadline in 2026, so I keep $8M-$10M in the bank until I know what I need then rather than guessing what I will need now. Try to offload Trenin and his $3.5M cap hit and replace him with an ELC or an AHL'er with potential. $3.5M is too much to dedicate to a fouth liner with no potential to move up in the lineup.

You don't know what you are going to get out of Yurov and Ohgren so just wait and see. There may also be some prospects in camp that impress and earn a spot. The first 30 games of last season the Wild went 20-6-4 and the only subtractions from that squad were bottom 6'ers and Flower.

I don't remember reading a lot of complaints in the first 30 games last year. Maybe it doesn't happen again this year. But if it does, you'd have $8M-$10M to do something about it.

[OldDutchChip]

4 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

That's your criteria? If Kaprizov leaves it will be BECAUSE of Billy and his total mismanagement of this team. Players don't want to play for the Wild anymore, it's toxic. They went from a bad lockeroom to bad management.

riiiight

[AKwildkraken]

3 hours ago, Scalptrash said:

The US just beat Finland in the quarterfinals 5-2. Zeev had a goal.

And Canada lost to The Danes.

[mnfaninnc]

5 hours ago, Pewterschmidt said:

Pasta would choose MN because we landed the statue that anchored BOS farm club.  WTF mnfan is this a joke?  I’ll assume it’s an attempt at sarcasm 

Not sarcasm, but a joke. I guess I should have put the wink emoji😉