Article: Does Bill Guerin Have the Right Vision For the Wild?

[Phillip Garrett]

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[IllicitFive]

I don’t know what is happening in the Wild's front office or Guerin’s plans, but I hope I am wrong. If Guerin can turn the Wild into the team we have seen flashes of, I will support his vision. 

This, this I believe is the exact problem. What IS the plan? I gave a pass to Billy due to cap constraints, empty prospect pool, draft pick issues. He, in my opinion has done fine during his time so far, been competitive in these seasons. That time is done, put up or shut up. That starts this off season. If they don't like Rossi, and want him gone, they must get something to offset him in return. If they do then nobody will care, if it falls flat, the pitchforks will be out.

For example, Tkachuk was traded to the Florida Panthers along with a conditional fourth-round draft pick in 2025 in exchange for Jonathan Huberdeau, Cole Schwindt, MacKenzie Weegar and a lottery-protected first-round pick in 2025. These were not little names for the Panthers to let go of, the Wild need to do the same. I think Kap, Boldy, Ek, Zeev, Jiricek, Faber, Yurov, the Wall, and Gus are the only untouchables outside of NMC/NTC. We might not like moves made but if it gets the team where they need to be then who will care?

It would be awesome to be privy to the plan in place but unfortunately we are stuck waiting and speculating. Other teams will most likely not be giving up their top players, especially center. If they do, it will cost a mint. I hope all fans hope he knows what he's doing, want nothing more than him to bring a cup to Minnesota but if improvements are not shown in short order, then it will be time to cut bait and find a new GM.

[Citizen Strife]

Guerin has a tendency to play fast and loose with trades.  But the Wild as constructed are pretty much lacking these things.

1) 2nd/3rd line offense

2) Offensive minded defensemen

3) Overall team size and/or speed

4) PP/PK success

5) Winning a fucking faceoff

A lot of this is personnel related.  You have to remember the Wild were very successful with Hynes's system, but a lot of players are still people picked by Fletcher or Fenton.  How long would we be waiting on prospects if the Wild went a full teardown?  Would Kaprizov want to stay around?

Gus, the top forward line, and the top 4 D are hard as hell to beat 5on5.  They have a "superstar" and a couple "stars" that showed up in crunch time.  The issue is their floor is way more leaky than we think it is.

Nyquist didn't work, sure.  But neither did Khusnutdinov or Lauko. Addison was as effective as a wet dish rag.  Bogo was an immediate upgrade on the cheap.

It isn't about "veterans bad, prospects good.". If a player isn't a fit, they aren't a fit.  How many times have people tried to write off Zuccarello and Spurgeon, yet they remain top 5 in team offense?  Gaudreau, Foligno, and Hartman were all pretty clutch most of the season to even stay ahead of the injuries or score against Vegas.

I won't write Guerin off just because one center may or may not stay with the team.  A Rossi trade may be beneficial, or blow up in his face. My issue is if he somehow keeps Nyquist, Mojo, Merrill, Chisholm, etc, when it is obvious the 10-30 pt players need to go and 40-60 PT players need to be the new floor.

If Rossi translates to a similar productive player or somehow part of a 1st line guy, no one will bat an eye.  Rossi sold for middle sixers and picks is the problem.

 

 

 

[Patrick]

Its hard to separate the noise from the facts with BG's tenure.  The Rossi situation will provide clarity.  Deal Rossi(plus something) for a bonafide top line guy? Great.  Deal Rossi for less than that?  Hopefully ownership steps in and fires Guerin before he does something that stupid. 

Based on the allegations of abusive behavior from 2023 and his embarrassing conduct with Rossi, I think BG is an egomaniac who should probably be canned BEFORE he hurts the team more significantly.

Hopefully I'm wrong but we ALL know what hockey culture is like and BG absolutely fits the mold.

[MNCountryLife]

Most of us here recognize that the buyouts did have a major impact and BG has been throwing darts at the board to try and stay competitive while in cap hell.  I expect BG to lose his support quickly if he doesn't get to the next level quickly.

[Will D. Ness]

The Rossi trade is going to be quite defining.  The buyouts are pretty much over so if BG has a vision that might be more than a number of soundbites given to the press over the years, it should be starting to take shape.  

Hopefully it's not all just bluster and there is an insight and design beyond "grit".

He pretends to be a simple guy, so maybe his moves this summer will reveal if he is just a simple guy saying "Hulk smash" or if he might be playing possum and really does have a strategy to win a cup?  

[Enforceror]

How much does the rest of the staff play a part in decisions?

Matt Sells 

Sells is entering his sixth season with Minnesota, most recently serving as Vice President of Hockey Strategy for three seasons (2021-24). He is responsible for salary cap management, player contract research and negotiations, analytics and hockey strategy and Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) compliance. Sells originally joined the Wild organization as Director of Hockey Analytics, a role he held for two seasons (2019-21).

Michael Murray

Murray is entering his fifth season with Minnesota, most recently serving as Director of Hockey Operations/General Manager of the Iowa Wild for three seasons (2021-24). He is responsible for scheduling, NHL transactions and player contract research and negotiations and will continue to assist in the day-to-day operations of the Minnesota and Iowa hockey operations departments. Murray joined the Wild organization as Assistant to the General Manager, holding the role for one season (2020-21).

Chris Kelleher

Kelleher is entering his 18th season with the Minnesota Wild, most recently serving as Director of Player Personnel for two seasons (2022-24). He will oversee the Wild’s professional scouting and player personnel efforts in North America and Europe and support the team’s preparation for the NHL trade deadline and free agency. Kelleher joined the organization as a part-time professional scout in 2008-09 and was promoted to a full-time professional scout for the 2009-10 season before serving as Director of Professional Scouting for three seasons (2019-22).

Mike Modano

Hockey Operations Advisor. We all know who he is...

[raithis]

The way I see it is that a lot of these moves can be attributed to the cap penalties, a mostly empty prospect pool, and slow development since then.  Hell, the slow development might even be partially due to the empty prospect pool if progression of one's peers helps foster better development in a player by challenging them to be better too.

The article says we've only brought in older players, preventing the ascension of younger players while also citing a number of other younger players that didn't work out.  Younger players have gotten chances.  It's not just Addison and Khusnutdinov that received playing time.  Players like Hunt, Walker, Beckman, Raska, and others were given chances and never showed that they belonged up in the NHL.  It's not like prospects aren't getting chances.  Even Rossi was given multiple chances before he got to the point where he showed he could be a successful everyday NHLer.

As far as signing older, veteran players.  It's typically cheaper to sign an aging vet in the latter part of his hockey career than it is to get one in his prime.  We didn't have the cap space or the depth to go after those players.  It's also harder to get those players still in their primed when they know that your team has huge cap penalties against it.  The odds are stacked against you and they know it.

What will be really telling is if this trend changes now that the cap penalties are mostly gone.  With several prospects poised to make the team next year, there will already be a shift towards youth.  With the cap penalties gone and showing that we can be a dangerous team, maybe there will be interest from more than just aging players who generally have some ties to Minnesota will be more interested in joining the team as a result.

If this off-season Guerin gives a 6yr deal to Nelson and trades Rossi for some player in their lower 30s who is already at their ceiling, then maybe this article is on to something.  Until then, I think there are enough other factors that it's premature to come to that judgment.

[raithis]

1 minute ago, Enforceror said:

How much does the rest of the staff play a part in decisions?

Matt Sells 

Sells is entering his sixth season with Minnesota, most recently serving as Vice President of Hockey Strategy for three seasons (2021-24). He is responsible for salary cap management, player contract research and negotiations, analytics and hockey strategy and Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) compliance. Sells originally joined the Wild organization as Director of Hockey Analytics, a role he held for two seasons (2019-21).

Michael Murray

Murray is entering his fifth season with Minnesota, most recently serving as Director of Hockey Operations/General Manager of the Iowa Wild for three seasons (2021-24). He is responsible for scheduling, NHL transactions and player contract research and negotiations and will continue to assist in the day-to-day operations of the Minnesota and Iowa hockey operations departments. Murray joined the Wild organization as Assistant to the General Manager, holding the role for one season (2020-21).

Chris Kelleher

Kelleher is entering his 18th season with the Minnesota Wild, most recently serving as Director of Player Personnel for two seasons (2022-24). He will oversee the Wild’s professional scouting and player personnel efforts in North America and Europe and support the team’s preparation for the NHL trade deadline and free agency. Kelleher joined the organization as a part-time professional scout in 2008-09 and was promoted to a full-time professional scout for the 2009-10 season before serving as Director of Professional Scouting for three seasons (2019-22).

Mike Modano

Hockey Operations Advisor. We all know who he is...

I'd also add Brad Bombardir to that list.  Maybe he is part of the development problem.  Development has been as issue for longer than Guerin has been at the helm.

[mnfaninnc]

This article came out just in time for what I was pondering earlier this morning: Bill Zito and Bill Guerin are rookie GMs and were hired pretty much a year apart. What did Zito do to build his team, what were the challenges he had, what did he inherit? And then look at the same thing for Guerin.

For starters, let's get this out of the way. You're wanting to head into the playoffs with a playoff type roster and already have a small team. Why are you trading for Gustav Nyquist who is 5'11" 180??? That doesn't help things. In fairness to the purchase price, the '26 2nd rounder was about the going price for such a player. He didn't put up offense, but I do believe he helped the team a bit. But we needed size vs. Vegas in the top 6, something Nyquist could not give us. 

Let's be honest, for the past 5 seasons, Guerin has had to shop in the scratch and dent section of the store. Every player he's been able to bring in has had some warts. But, together, they have been a competitive bunch. Guerin has fulfilled his 5 year promise from the buyouts: Having a competitive team. Making the playoffs 4/5 years, and being sent home after the 1st round is the very measure of a "competitive" team. He managed to get the series to 6 or 7 games too. That was what he gave us for an expectation. Anything more than that that we gave ourselves is on us.

Then he said he would develop a team on the fly. We have seen Rossi so far. MaRat was not good enough, Hunt was not good enough. We've got The Wall, Lambos, Jiricek, Ogz, Yurov and Buium that should be on the roster next season. That is a lot of change. And, those are just the 1st rounders. We've got some later round picks that should be getting better, though we're not seeing it. 

Now, our demands are a "contending" team. And, it seemed like that was what was implied by Guerin after we got out of these 5 years. Do we see it yet? I can tell you what the plan was: 2020-draft the best available players. 2 have been traded off. One more is expected to be traded off, but he has developed.

2021- work from the goal out. Get goalie of the future ✔️. Get defense prospects (Lambos & Peart)✔️. Unfortunately, size here was not communicated. Lambos has decent size, Peart just doesn't. Bankier also was a sneaky pick.

2022-get forwards (Yurov, Ohgren, Haight, Lorenz, Milne)✔️. Add defense- Spacek✔️

2023-what are we missing? Size in our forwards (Stramel, Kumpulainen)✔️ and skill, Heidt✔️

2024-missed playoffs, bonus higher picks: Buium, Ritchie✔️Kiviharju is still that small puckmoving defender Judd loves to take a chance on, but he dropped 3 rounds so it's probably worth taking a chance on. Finally, we got some size on defense, though later round picks.

To me, this looks like a plan, not just a hodge podge of picks. Trading for Jiricek at the top of the 2022 draft puts us in a much better position since Judd over bought the LHS defenders. Since most of the picks were lower in their round, extra development was most likely needed. These players typically need 5 years of development, more for the goalies. But, Guerin has built a nice core of players around the 2020-2022 drafts. 

Now, we have to mix that core into what vets we still want to keep. Some of this depends on salary demands. For instance, if Goose is trying to convince anyone he's an $8m goalie, that should be someone else's mistake. Within our system, an above average goalie thrives here. He's in the current $4.5-5m mix which probably gets him to $5m with capflation. 

Another thing to consider is how does Guerin/Hynes want this team to play? Structured, sound defensively, opportunistic offensively. He expects a heavy game. Why then do we have a bunch of undersized guys, especially guys being developed in the minors with no strength and lacking NHL bodies for this style of play? Headscratcher! ❌

This is where I look at Boeser and Nelson. Nelson is more experienced and part of the 2010 draft. He is listed as 6'4" 205, but I'd suggest he's probably more like 215. He can play that structured heavy game. Boeser is 6'1" 208. I don't think he bodychecks much but he can certainly take on some punishment from a 5'11" 180 lb. guy. He's slower but has a lethal shot and can set up in Ovechkin's office. These 2 players ✔️ a box.

Gaudreau is also not fast, but is 6' 184. He has position flexibility and an RHS. Still, Boeser fills this spot better. Zuccarello is 5'8" 181. He showed some flashes of fight in him, but let's be honest, it was a fly on the windshield affect. This is not really a playoff body and at 37 probably is too old.  To me, these are the 2 that need to go if you bring in a Boeser and Nelson. But, to do that, you've got to have younger players who can outclimb Gaudreau and Zuccarello. Zuccy should have never been signed for 2 years with NMC, it should have only been year to year. 

If this plan falls into place, will that immediately make us contenders? No, it will not. The kids need experience, so we are likely transitioning out of "competitors" into the "contending" category.

Now, what did Bill Zito do to make his juggernaut?

[Burnt Toast]

We’re finally at the point where BG and Co. will have to show their cards. Most of the decisions these last few years were basic survival moves. I hope to see a “patient“ approach, giving our best incoming ELC group time to hit and bring cost effective value. As Cit Stri indicated there’s a lot of holes in the Wild’s roster. I just don’t see any “steals” out in UFA this offseason. Trades are usually pretty equal. There’s a lot of “The Wild have to win now” while at the same time saying “Better not get older vets”. If we want younger, faster, bigger then we will need to give the current incoming prospects time. As for a template for winning it’s hard not to look at Florida and go “Hey BG just do that”. 

[Citizen Strife]

Gus was Top 5-15 in GAA/SV% all season.  If he repeats that, getting him for at or below $7.5m would have me doing cartwheels.  Hill is in the $6-6.5m range, so that might be a good comp.

Edited 8 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[ArizonaWildFan]

Great article and great posts! I enjoy reading educated and well thought out posts, whether I agree with them or not. I know the other type of posts will be coming soon so thank you for getting ahead of the McDavid for Merrill crowd.

The worst move the Wild organization and ownership has made in the past years is making Guerin President along with being GM. Leipold is the judge (how involved and knowledgeable is unclear), and he appointed BG both jury and executioner.

Guerin, the jury of one, really doesn't have to answer to anyone and that can be dangerous and detrimental. In his post season media availability, I think I remember BG saying that Leipold has never said no to him and given him everything he has asked for.

Guerin is in his first GM role and has never been the President previously. How do you give an unproven GM with a mediocre track record basically complete control of an organization? Looking at that scenario, stupidity apparently starts at the top and works it's way down.

 

[Burnt Toast]

59 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

Now, what did Bill Zito do to make his juggernaut?

Well everyone on the roster is 6’ plus.. oh wait except for that guy from Boston. They have multiple top 10 first rounders including first overall. Got a nice 1C Selke winner forgot his name Bar… something. Top goalie. From what I’ve read they also have a really strong locker room vibe which after hearing about the problems in Toronto appears to be pretty important. So I can’t even begin to answer your question. I can hardly get my mind around the actual team construction and how solid it is. I might add my own question. What do Billy Zee and Billy Gee have in common because other than a name and a title I have no idea. 

[Scalptrash]

Billy shouldn't be an NHL General Manager/President of Hockey Operations, he got hired purely on his name and player reputation. He's just a popular frat boy bully that knows a lot of people and has the confidence to get what he wants. Or, his bigger than life bad boy persona scares people into submission. Either way, he doesn't know anything about managing a successful NHL club. He continually gets in the way of his staff, that are smarter than him, and makes poor, knee jerk decisions.

Obviously I'm not impressed, nor a fan, but I am a fan of the Wild and want to see them win a cup in my lifetime. That won't happen with Billy at the helm.

Until ownership takes this team seriously and actually tries to build a championship franchise, Minnesota will never lift the cup. Like all Minnesota professional sports franchises, mediocrity suits ownership and fans just fine. Just keep buying tickets...wash, rinse, repeat.

[OldDutchChip]

If Kap signs, then Billy did his job

If Kap does not sign, then Bill failed

i think Bill made a few bad moves and a few good moves, not enough in one direction to be called a failure.

we shall see soon. 

forgot to say  - bye Rossi!

[RedLake]

The Wild won't win anything until new ownership comes in, state income tax goes down, or the team simply moves outta this once great state. No big names ever sign here in FA, nor except trades. We are a 1c, 2 other top 6 forwards, a 3rd line, a fourth line, and D-men that can clear the front of the net away from being a conference contender. 

[mnfaninnc]

We should probably start with who is Bill Zito?

Zito was born in Pittsburgh and grew up in Wisconsin. He played college hockey at Yale, but became a lawyer. Practiced in NY and Chicago and then started a player's agent practice.

In 2013, he left the company/practice he had started and started working for CBJ (Jeesh, how did they let him get away???). In 2020 he became GM of Florida, and has a Calder Cup under his belt before getting there. 

Zito seems to be a guy with a basic hockey understanding, but a very good handle on the CBA and a different side of things with players as their agents. From the cheap seats, I would have to look on and think that Zito is probably a better manager than Guerin is, yet here is the interesting thing: Guerin is GM over USA Hockey for international play and Zito is his assistant. 

My guess is that they both have different strengths, but being a thinker in complex trading negotiations, I'd say Zito is going to win most deals. He also probably holds a lot of trust with players having been an agent. I would think that the organization is run very efficiently and professionally without excess emotion.

Guerin on the other hand is likely better at gauging talent, has a better sense of the locker room, and a better angle on how each locker room piece works together. His FO is probably less efficient, has more excess emotion, and he'll listen to Zito's proposals, but might get lost in the complexity. I'm also thinking that Zito is a much better numbers guy, and Guerin will need help with that. 

While we're at it, I'll bet Guerin is a lot more fun at parties, as Zito hangs out in the corner reading the room. Both guys are likely in constant contact with each other with their USA Hockey responsibilities. I think Zito probably listens to his hockey guys much better, and Guerin trusts his gut feeling on things as he bounces stuff off of his staff. 

My conclusion is that Guerin needs a Zito under him. Zito doesn't necessarily need a Guerin under him. 

5 hours ago, Enforceror said:

Matt Sells 

Sells is entering his sixth season with Minnesota, most recently serving as Vice President of Hockey Strategy for three seasons (2021-24). He is responsible for salary cap management, player contract research and negotiations, analytics and hockey strategy and Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) compliance. Sells originally joined the Wild organization as Director of Hockey Analytics, a role he held for two seasons (2019-21).

Michael Murray

Murray is entering his fifth season with Minnesota, most recently serving as Director of Hockey Operations/General Manager of the Iowa Wild for three seasons (2021-24). He is responsible for scheduling, NHL transactions and player contract research and negotiations and will continue to assist in the day-to-day operations of the Minnesota and Iowa hockey operations departments. Murray joined the Wild organization as Assistant to the General Manager, holding the role for one season (2020-21).

Chris Kelleher

Kelleher is entering his 18th season with the Minnesota Wild, most recently serving as Director of Player Personnel for two seasons (2022-24). He will oversee the Wild’s professional scouting and player personnel efforts in North America and Europe and support the team’s preparation for the NHL trade deadline and free agency. Kelleher joined the organization as a part-time professional scout in 2008-09 and was promoted to a full-time professional scout for the 2009-10 season before serving as Director of Professional Scouting for three seasons (2019-22).

Mike Modano

Hockey Operations Advisor. We all know who he is...

This is pure gold, thank you Enforcer.

5 hours ago, raithis said:

I'd also add Brad Bombardir to that list.  Maybe he is part of the development problem.  Development has been as issue for longer than Guerin has been at the helm.

This is also a very important part, and I share your concern.

Part of Florida's success is due to being in the right place at the right time. I think we can all look at the Matthew Tkachuk trade and see this as the turning point for the organization. But my hope is to see how the other 22 guys got there. 

Let's be honest here, the Wild haven't had too many down seasons since OCL took over the team. Fletcher did a pretty good job early on hitting on picks, too. Florida did go through some hard seasons. Hopefully I'll have time to sift through their 5 year transaction list.

[Burnt Toast]

1 hour ago, mnfaninnc said:

Florida

I know they have full time scouts living in MN. I’m not sure how many scouts NHL teams usually have. Maybe MN really is the State of Hockey after all.