Article: Bill Guerin Has His Chance To Win Everybody Over This Summer

[Chris Schad]

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[Lern2spell]

The window is finally opening for the Wild, but won't be opened all the way for another two years. Besides the ever talked issue of re-signing Kaprizov and adding a good (but probably not elite) top six player, the Wild need to spend to re-sign some core pieces this off season and next, hindering the ability to get a truly elite top six piece to make a formidable run at the Cup. Last year at this time Gustavsson was trade fodder, and Jiricek was in Columbus. Both will need raises after next season, and after burning the first year of Buium's ELC, he will need to get paid sooner rather than later also. If Wallstedt comes through as billed, he will need a raise as well, not to mention the Yurov's, Heidt's and others coming up through the ranks.

One can speculate any of the various names battered about on various comment boards, and plug in adequate corresponding numbers to get them here for next season, but reality says the Wild won't be able to make a really big splash until the summer of 2027. I just want Guerin to stick to a plan and not blow it all up with bad signings before it even gets started...

[MNCountryLife]

I want a cup.  That requires everything.  You can't just have a team that is good one year.  You have to have a base that competes every year for a multitude of years.  Watch your core players and your money.  I hope BG is the one.  I don't want to wait another 3 years for the next guy to figure out his core.

[Patrick]

If the Wild don't resign Rossi we are cooked.  There are no comparable alternatives that don't come at a substantially higher price.  Unless Rossi really is asking for 8 plus million a year BG needs to be fired.  The way he has handled this publicly has been an embarrassment to the organization.

The only out is if Yurov pulls a Kaprizov and stuns the NHL right out of the gate.

Stars top 3 centers Hintze, Duchene, Johnston

Oilers - McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins

Vegas - Eichel- Hertl- Karlsson

Nearly every contender goes 3 deep.

Us without Rossi....Ek, Hartman, Gaudreau  😂😂😢

And none of possible free agents meaningfully change that.

Does BG have ANY plan?

[Burnt Toast]

12 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Does BG have ANY plan?

If he does I hope it includes patience. If BG caves into the pressure to “win now” leading to overpays in both $ and assets our window won’t be open for long. As McC stated SC contenders need multiple years to push their way to the top. Yes the P&S contracts are over. So what. We just made it to the playground the other kids have been on the whole time. Wild ownership/management has stated that there is a multi ear plan. What year are we in? I don’t think that was clearly stated. I hope it includes 2027 because that gives our best prospects a shot at breaking out. JW DY ZB Jiri Ohg. I think BG’s assessment as a competent GM will hinge on the moves he makes ( or doesn’t) in the next two years. 

[Kato AK]

1 hour ago, Patrick said:

If the Wild don't resign Rossi we are cooked.  There are no comparable alternatives that don't come at a substantially higher price.  Unless Rossi really is asking for 8 plus million a year BG needs to be fired.  The way he has handled this publicly has been an embarrassment to the organization.

The only out is if Yurov pulls a Kaprizov and stuns the NHL right out of the gate.

Stars top 3 centers Hintze, Duchene, Johnston

Oilers - McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins

Vegas - Eichel- Hertl- Karlsson

Nearly every contender goes 3 deep.

Us without Rossi....Ek, Hartman, Gaudreau  😂😂😢

And none of possible free agents meaningfully change that.

Does BG have ANY plan?

I think your first sentence is only true if BG lets Rossi go to an offer sheet and getting picks in return, that doesn't help now.  But I do agree that the public handling of Rossi has been terrible. If anything, it has hurt his trade value.

If BG can get an upgrade using additional assets, that should be an option. One of your examples shows that a viable option, Vegas. Two of the centers listed were acquired through trade, and their next best player (stone) was also a trade.

[hydguy75]

Step 1.  Sign Kap to your 8 year deal, starting at $10M year 1 and increasing.  Why?  Kap is certainly worth more than that.  True.  But to build the offense deep enough to win not 1 but 2-3 cups in a 8 year span, a true dynasty, we need funds.  

But Kap would never sign for only $10M year 1.  OK. 8 years @ $15M.  $120M total and 0 cups (at least with MN).  0 cups.  Or 8 Years with say AAV even $10M conditionally that BG goes shopping for true top talent forwards and brings them in, $80M total for Kap, and Kap's name on 2-3 cups.  So 97 is only stepping back $40M over 8 years, but after $10M who cares?  How much is it worth to becoming legendary?  

I'm going to get laughed at and heckled.  I'm ready.  But DO NOT let this be another Joe Mauer FAILURE in MINNESOTA again, where as soon as he cashes the big paycheck he turns to shit, wasting time and money.  

Step 2.  Re-Sign Rossi.  

Step 3.  Find a Power Forward or 2 with what's left.  

The Wild could NOT overtake VGK because they lack a complete offense.  You have most of the parts there, build around Kap and what we do have.  

[WildNotMild]

I have read that Nelson turned down 7.5M for 3 years from NYI mid season.  IF true, would the regulars on here prefer Nelson or Rossi for 7.5M?  I would prefer Rossi in that he is younger and has more upside.  Father Time is undefeated in humbling players and GMs in their mid 30s looking for a longer deal with clauses.  I predict Nelson wants a 5 year deal at 7.5M per (minimums).  Don’t be dumb Billy.  Please let someone else sign the other Brocks.

[Citizen Strife]

Rossi for 7.5m, especially on a bridge.  A long term deal or higher money would give me pause.

If Nelson wants say $5.5-6m for short term, then that's something worth considering.  The issue for all of this is what if Boeser and Nelson are kinda Parise/Sutering things and coming as a package deal, but taking less to do it?  I still think I'd go Ehlers and Bennet over Boeser/Nelson if the money is equivalent.  Moreso just to stick it to the Jets.

The issue with the team is 2nd line depth scoring (of people at 50-70 pt value), and 3rd line defense/offense from the blueline in general.  Increasing overall team speed wouldn't be the worst thing either.

 

[mnhockeyfan03]

2 hours ago, WildNotMild said:

I have read that Nelson turned down 7.5M for 3 years from NYI mid season.  IF true, would the regulars on here prefer Nelson or Rossi for 7.5M?  I would prefer Rossi in that he is younger and has more upside.  Father Time is undefeated in humbling players and GMs in their mid 30s looking for a longer deal with clauses.  I predict Nelson wants a 5 year deal at 7.5M per (minimums).  Don’t be dumb Billy.  Please let someone else sign the other Brocks.

If Billy pays anything north of $5mm for Nelson, Boeser or Rossi he should be fired.  And no more than 2-3 years.  I am a hard no on Rossi and Boeser.  Nelson only to play third line and nothing more.  We still need a 1C and another top 6 wing in addition to him.  Also with Kap if his big thing is wanting to win see if he will be ok with $11-12mm rather than $15mm to help the team win.  Get him a few commercial deals to make up the difference.  Trade Faber and Rossi for a true 1C

[1Brotherbill]

Bill Guerin's task list.

1. Extend Kirill, 14 million for 8 years.  Doesn't matter about the dollar value if you sign him they will come. 

2. Tell Rossi to find a RFA offer.  If the offer comes in at 5 or above, let him go. Otherwise match the offer.

3a. If  you still have Rossi, go find a faceoff guy that isn't Brock Nelson.

3b.  If Rossi is gone, find multiple faceoff guys that are not Brock Nelson.  

4.  Did I mention finding people who can win face offs?

5. Repeat step 4 as many times as you can.

6. If nobody else is available and you want to tank sign Brock Nelson.

7. If you made it to step 6 start working on a resume letter for your next job. 

[0 Stanley Cups]

If the Wild loved Brock Faber so much, why did LA draft him at #45 in 2020?  According to Russo, the Wild love JJ Petertka #34 in 2020 and may be looking to trade for him. 

2020 was Guerin's first draft, and who did he select Rossi #9, Khus #37, O'Rourke #39 and Hunt #65.  So while Guerin is crapping on Rossi, he could have drafted Lundell, Jarvis, Holloway, Mercer, Zary to play center if Rossi is too small.  Brilliant!!  2021 draft Wally, then Lambos #26, Peart #54.  Meanwhile at Knies #57, Stankhoven #47, Johnston #23.

I'm not trying to draft all Minnesota kids here, but why is the Wild missing drafting top end talent in its own backyard?  Why do the Wild covet other teams draft picks and not our own?  Shooter's starting to feel the pressure now that he can't hide behind the Parise/Suter buyouts.

[Citizen Strife]

I wonder if there is a disconnect between what Guerin values as a GM and what Brackett does as a scout.  That may explain the Rossi decision at the time, plus Khusnutdinov and others.  From what I have heard, Guerin kinda lets Judd do his job outside of the Stramel thing.  To be fair, the Stramel, Yurov, and Heidt choices was made before Rossi blossomed last season.  It is possible they didn't know what Rossi would be.

So, it is possible they are reading off two different books (size and grit vs. skill, puck movement, and positional versatility), so who knows if there's a balance or conflict.

 

 

 

Edited 16 hours ago by Citizen Strife

[0 Stanley Cups]

Freddie G shouldn't have played higher in the lineup than Rossi during playoffs, our second leading scorer.  Freddie is a depth piece not our 3C, I'd rather have Rossi, Hartman, Yurov or Heidt play 3C over #89 next year.  32 yr old Freddie with 35 yr old Nyquist and JoJo at 34 yr old in the playoffs...good grief!

[Will D. Ness]

2 hours ago, Citizen Strife said:

I wonder if there is a disconnect between what Guerin values as a GM and what Brackett does as a scout.  That may explain the Rossi decision at the time, plus Khusnutdinov and others.  From what I have heard, Guerin kinda lets Judd do his job outside of the Stramel thing.  To be fair, the Stramel, Yurov, and Heidt choices was made before Rossi blossomed last season.  It is possible they didn't know what Rossi would be.

So, it is possible they are reading off two different books (size and grit vs. skill, puck movement, and positional versatility), so who knows if there's a balance or conflict.

I think Brackett is more BPA draft philosophy and the Wild were usually late first round which means we would pick players that were passed over due to size.

Rossi was the exception being a top ten pick, but even then we still went for skill over size.

I think the conflict is more of a philosophical one and is really problematic IMO.  We don't have any really physically dominant top 6 players in our system via Brackett.

[Citizen Strife]

28 minutes ago, Will D. Ness said:

I think Brackett is more BPA draft philosophy and the Wild were usually late first round which means we would pick players that were passed over due to size.

Rossi was the exception being a top ten pick, but even then we still went for skill over size.

I think the conflict is more of a philosophical one and is really problematic IMO.  We don't have any really physically dominant top 6 players in our system via Brackett.

I asked this same question over on Reddit, and I got an interesting analogy that NHL drafts are a lot like MLB, so you just kinda hope and pray in most cases 

[Mateo3xm]

13 hours ago, mnhockeyfan03 said:

If Billy pays anything north of $5mm for Nelson, Boeser or Rossi he should be fired.  And no more than 2-3 years.  I am a hard no on Rossi and Boeser.  Nelson only to play third line and nothing more.  We still need a 1C and another top 6 wing in addition to him.  Also with Kap if his big thing is wanting to win see if he will be ok with $11-12mm rather than $15mm to help the team win.  Get him a few commercial deals to make up the difference.  Trade Faber and Rossi for a true 1C

This guy is hilarious. Sounds like the mind of a 16 yr old..🤣..trade Faber he says… hahaha.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

6 minutes ago, Citizen Strife said:

I asked this same question over on Reddit, and I got an interesting analogy that NHL drafts are a lot like MLB, so you just kinda hope and pray in most cases 

With someone mentioning Matthew Knies in discussions here, I went back and looked why he slid. In his draft year, he made no progress from a statistical perspective(failing to reach 1 point per game in the USHL that year) from the prior year despite having some promising skill and instincts. He also had issues with turnovers and skating that could have been concerning long-term with him struggling to chase down the play when he was turning over the puck.

Knies had a poor start to his draft year, but finished strong, so there were reasons someone might have looked at him late 1st or early 2nd, but questions regarding his NHL fit given those deficiencies pushed him to #57. He developed nicely at U of MN and has been rather productive this season at age 22.

Projecting 17 & 18 year old players isn't super easy. The only forwards ahead of Knies in NHL scoring from that 2021 draft were all drafted top 25. If the draft would have happened after his point per game freshman season at the University of Minnesota, he probably goes 1st round.

[That-one-guy]

If history is anything to go by…

BG will draft a player who is too small but has good numbers (Rossi, Buium).

Then we’ll sign a couple of bottom six players for longer and at a higher pay than needed, plus add a no-movement clause or two.

Then we’ll start the season bemoaning the fact that we’re a small team and struggle to make the playoffs… During the season we’ll try to swing a trade for a bigger player, get someone like Bogosian, and watch him over commit in the playoffs letting the other team walk in for a goal.

Did I miss anything?

[Dis-allowed display name]

What frustrates me the most about this team, outside of lack of offensive talent and dearth of playoff success, is the fact that they just seem to give limited opportunity to some of their young players in search of constant "Win as much as we can now even though we know we won't get far in the playoffs." 

I will admit very freely I don't see what happens in practice and behind the scenes, I don't know what kind of pressure the owners put on the front office to keep regular season seats full even if it hurts long term success. Some prospects (Lambos) have not showed enough in Iowa.

But I would have given Rossi more chances this season, both to play with better talent and get more confidence and experience.  Maybe Buium too, but his window was extremely short, I am talking about the playoffs.  

K-nut showed a couple flashes, not sure he would be great but off he went.  Ohgren played well in Iowa but we needed Brazzie I guess.  Maybe Brazz did something, I never noticed him the whole time.

If they can not swing some home run deal before next season I would rather start with Ohgren, Buium, Rossi, and Yurov in the lineup, give them the ability to make some mistakes and grow and wait until the trade deadline than just keep adding dead weight has-beens, never-was'es, and grit guys.  

"We have the greatest prospects in the league!"  Well then, lets see them get a chance to succeed, clear out the dead weight, and if they fail, make your trades.  Because I have watched this team go nowhere for a couple decades, I would rather see some of our hyped young guys play and learn and lose, than I want to see some guys we know can't get it done get into the first round just so the team can make a bit more money filling seats for a couple disappointing home playoff losses.

If the team wants to sell me false hope, sell me false hope on the young guys and not the old ones.

 

Edited 11 hours ago by Dis-allowed display name

[Pewterschmidt]

19 hours ago, Burnt Toast said:

If BG caves into the pressure to “win now” leading to overpays in both $ and assets our window won’t be open for long.

Aren't we in yr 7 of bill's reign?  We're well past "win now".  We're into the second year 5 of an apparantly 10 year plan.  Who does bill have pictures of?

[Pewterschmidt]

18 hours ago, Kato AK said:

But I do agree that the public handling of Rossi has been terrible. If anything, it has hurt his trade value.

This is bill's patented "drive down the perceived value of the Wild's pending RFA before bringing him to market, which bill has clearly telegraphed he has no intention to re-sign" strategy.  It's contrarian, but it's idiotic too.  See: Fiala

#dontbedumbbill

[mnhockeyfan03]

1 hour ago, Mateo3xm said:

This guy is hilarious. Sounds like the mind of a 16 yr old..🤣..trade Faber he says… hahaha.

Good luck getting a true 1C without including him in a trade.  We have needed a true 1C since this franchise has existed and that is way more important than Faber and his bloated salary after having a down year last year.  Was not good the last 3 months of the year.  To get something good you have to give up something good. They aren’t going to want our crap and sorry Rossi trade value is not that high. 

[FredJohnson]

Bill Guerin Has His Chance To Win Everybody Over This Summer

Pretty sure GMBG has to extend KK97 or he’ll be relieved of his duties with the Wild. He can win everybody over once he’s done that first.

[0 Stanley Cups]

Everyone on this team is tradeable except Kaprizov.  To get a 1C it's going to cost a significant piece like a Boldy, Faber, or Buium packaged with a Rossi or Ohgren.

I think it's too soon to give up on Rossi, but I think the damage has been done and he'll be gone.  Just remember EE wasn't the player he is now early in his career either, that's when everyone was calling for Boeser the first few years, but now definitely not.

I wouldn't mind seeing a Shane Wright for Rossi hockey trade, he hasn't been treated well by Seattle either.