Article: The Wild Must Think Bigger Than Brock Nelson

[Patrick]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

 

Obviously, you always want more, but what if Yurov is instantly a capable 2nd line C, with Zuccarello setting up him and the other wing

 

What do people see in Zucc?  He got absolutely cratered by Vegas.  He wasn't great in the regular season either.  He stacks up points on the PP and that has value but for how long will it outweigh his 5 on 5 liability.  He isn't going to get better next year either....

[Burnt Toast]

I watched the Ave’s Management exit interview. Joe S was talking about lot about how important depth throughout the lineup is. He felt with Rant/ NMcK/ Makar it wasn’t enough to make a run. That statement really surprised me. I’d recommend watching the interview. I don’t see the Wild being able to address adding a true 1C this year. It would gut this team depth wise. Not only that but future pieces as well. For now the Wild will need to find another way to start getting into the conversation as a contender. My dream scenario is Yurov continues to develop and hits a very high ceiling quickly. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

20 minutes ago, Patrick said:

What do people see in Zucc?  He got absolutely cratered by Vegas.  He wasn't great in the regular season either.  He stacks up points on the PP and that has value but for how long will it outweigh his 5 on 5 liability.  He isn't going to get better next year either....

I see an excellent passer put on a line without scorers in the playoffs. If they add an elite winger, one of Kaprizov, Boldy, or that new wing will be playing with Zuccarello. Do you think Zuccarello looks better playing with a 30-40 goal scorer than he might playing with Gaudreau and Johansson?

I don't know that they'll extend Zuccarello beyond next season, but it's hard to imagine him below the top 6 while he's on the team. He played at a 22 goal, 40 assist pace this season and much of it was without Kaprizov on his line. Out of the 54 points Zuccarello put up, Kaprizov was the goal scorer on just 7 of them.

[ArizonaWildFan]

Another great article, Tony!

Watching and listening to GMBG's post-season media availability and with King and Carter on Wild on 7th, two things jumped out. One, he said he would consider re-signing a UFA or UFA's. That scares the Hell out of me  Johansson? Nyquist? Merrill? Brazeau? Hell no to all of them.

I'm sick and tired of hearing and reading how well some players performed in the playoffs (Brazeau, Trenin, Johansson, etc.), when it was just an illusion. If you underperform during the regular season and set the bar for acceptable play extremely low, it only takes a couple hits, assists, and some marginal hustle to be viewed by some as an MVP candidate.

The second bothersome part of Billy's recent availability is that it is blatantly obvious Rossi is already gone and it was a preordained outcome. This discussion has gone on ad nauseum and no need to keep pounding home the point that it will be a huge mistake. Guerin has made huge mistakes in the past and hopefully this will be the one that finally ends up biting him in the ass.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

25 minutes ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

The second bothersome part of Billy's recent availability is that it is blatantly obvious Rossi is already gone and it was a preordained outcome. This discussion has gone on ad nauseum and no need to keep pounding home the point that it will be a huge mistake.

Hard to say it would be a huge mistake without knowing the return. If Guerin trades Rossi, Ohgren, and a 1st round pick for Pastrnak, would you be outraged?

I didn't hear the context, but I don't see an issue with considering re-signing UFAs at the minimum. I'm pretty confident his priorities will be to improve above the 4th line, but I'm not going to be upset if he brings back Brazeau at the minimum. He's not a guy you want to elevate in the lineup, but he's a capable 4th liner.

He also considered trading Gus last year, but it didn't happen. Suggesting that you would consider something is more about not coming across as a jerk or closed-minded. It's best to avoid acting like the guys who were just working hard for your team aren't anyone you'd ever consider signing. Now, if Guerin brought it up on his own as something they were actively pursuing, I'd certainly see the concern.

Edited 20 hours ago by Imyourhuckleberry

[WildNotMild]

Kaprizov, Boldy, Ek, Zuccy, Hartman, Foligno Trenin, Gaudreau, Hinostroza, Ohgren, Yurov (assuming Rossi is gone)

Spurgeon, Brodin, Faber, Middleton, Bogo, Buium, Jiricek

Gus, Wally

The above is the likely penciled in roster for next year.  It includes a missing forward.  I really think Rossi is gone, yet everyone wants a legit 1C.  Other teams aren’t going to just want to throw away a 1C for scraps.  I really don’t see other teams wanting Zuccy, Hartman, Foligno, Trenin, Gaudreau, Hinostroza, Middleton and Bogo as parts of a deal to trade away a legit center who isn’t too old, too expensive, etc. let alone a top 1C.

Assuming Rossi is part of any trade offer and Kaprizov is untouchable (rightly so), that leaves a combination of Boldy, Ek, Yurov, Ohgren, Spurgeon, Brodin, Faber, Buium, Jiricek and Wally along with picks.  
 

This isn’t fantasy hockey.  3+ players for a legit center isn’t likely.  Any more players in addition to Rossi from the above penciled in line up just creates more holes in the Wild’s lineup and problems for the other teams with suddenly having too many players to play.  

I think there are likely to be trades with GMBG “selling” the fan base that he made fair trades.  

[SkolWild73]

50 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I see an excellent passer put on a line without scorers in the playoffs. If they add an elite winger, one of Kaprizov, Boldy, or that new wing will be playing with Zuccarello. Do you think Zuccarello looks better playing with a 30-40 goal scorer than he might playing with Gaudreau and Johansson?

I don't know that they'll extend Zuccarello beyond next season, but it's hard to imagine him below the top 6 while he's on the team. He played at a 22 goal, 40 assist pace this season and much of it was without Kaprizov on his line. Out of the 54 points Zuccarello put up, Kaprizov was the goal scorer on just 7 of them.

Agreed.  Also, this year he actually had his highest percentage of even strength points since joining the Wild at 70%.

 

[Enforceror]

10 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I didn't hear the context, but I don't see an issue with considering re-signing UFAs at the minimum.

I watched the interview as well. My take (and this is based off of multiple interviews) is that Guerin offers very vague glimpses into what he's planning. He seems to prefer to keep the "all options are on the table" approach. 

[WildNotMild]

1 minute ago, Enforceror said:

I watched the interview as well. My take (and this is based off of multiple interviews) is that Guerin offers very vague glimpses into what he's planning. He seems to prefer to keep the "all options are on the table" approach. 

Agreed.  I just really can’t figure out if his vagueness is because he has no idea/plan or because he is super smart.  I am hoping for the latter, but would bet on the former.

[Citizen Strife]

I mean, if you had Russo hounding you for info everyday, I'd clam up too.  Russo can come off petty and angsty.

[Enforceror]

5 minutes ago, WildNotMild said:

Agreed.  I just really can’t figure out if his vagueness is because he has no idea/plan or because he is super smart.  I am hoping for the latter, but would bet on the former.

The thing that I bring up that everyone seems to forget is that Guerin has staff that helps him make decisions. Yes it's up to him ultimately but there is an entire team of people who get paid think/plan, etc. 

Guerin may just be the guy that says yes or no.

[ArizonaWildFan]

12 minutes ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

If Guerin trades Rossi, Ohgren, and a 1st round pick for Pastrnak, would you be outraged?

First response is that Pastrnak has an $11.25M cap hit, a no movement clause and will be 29 years old next season. He's a great player and I would love to have him on my team, but at what cost. Rossi is no Pastrnak, neither is Ohgren, and more than likely a first rounder won't be. But the three of them combined for less money?

It is way too fresh in our memory what happens when a high earning star player or players are lost to injury, depth becomes a serious issue. Rossi, Ohgren, and hopefully a first rounder are or will be top six soon. Giving up three top six and paying a couple million more for one top six may not make sense. The only way to know for sure is if Boston would agree to such a trade. 

[WildNotMild]

5 minutes ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

First response is that Pastrnak has an $11.25M cap hit, a no movement clause and will be 29 years old next season. He's a great player and I would love to have him on my team, but at what cost. Rossi is no Pastrnak, neither is Ohgren, and more than likely a first rounder won't be. But the three of them combined for less money?

It is way too fresh in our memory what happens when a high earning star player or players are lost to injury, depth becomes a serious issue. Rossi, Ohgren, and hopefully a first rounder are or will be top six soon. Giving up three top six and paying a couple million more for one top six may not make sense. The only way to know for sure is if Boston would agree to such a trade. 

Agreed.  The Wild don’t have great depth as demonstrated by the career AHL players we had to use in the NHL last year.  If they did, they could take a big swing for an elite player.  I would love to get Pasta or BT, but it would likely decimate what little depth we have.  It isn’t like the Wild’s draft picks will be high picks, they will be in the throw a dart part of the first round.  Even the elite prospects (as claimed by management) aren’t sure things yet.  Look no further than Ohgren, Wally, etc.  I just don’t see a team giving up a player like BT for prospects or lower draft picks.  Having to give up multiple NHL roster players creates too many holes right now that can’t be filled with NHL ready talent (and that is before any injuries).

[SkolWild73]

16 minutes ago, WildNotMild said:

Agreed.  The Wild don’t have great depth as demonstrated by the career AHL players we had to use in the NHL last year.  If they did, they could take a big swing for an elite player.  I would love to get Pasta or BT, but it would likely decimate what little depth we have.  It isn’t like the Wild’s draft picks will be high picks, they will be in the throw a dart part of the first round.  Even the elite prospects (as claimed by management) aren’t sure things yet.  Look no further than Ohgren, Wally, etc.  I just don’t see a team giving up a player like BT for prospects or lower draft picks.  Having to give up multiple NHL roster players creates too many holes right now that can’t be filled with NHL ready talent (and that is before any injuries).

You are right, it will cost to get a top player, but they could get someone without giving up a ton of players.  Dallas got Ranty for Stankoven (smaller young player, much like Rossi), 2 firsts and 2 thirds.  

[WildNotMild]

5 minutes ago, SkolWild73 said:

You are right, it will cost to get a top player, but they could get someone without giving up a ton of players.  Dallas got Ranty for Stankoven (smaller young player, much like Rossi), 2 firsts and 2 thirds.  

But he was technically a TDL rental.  Dallas didn’t have to give up anything if it could’ve/would’ve waited until the offseason.  Carolina’s leverage was lessened as Ranty supposedly would only sign with a few teams including Dallas.  Another way to look at the trade was Dallas gave up a good young player, 2 firsts and 2 thirds to sign him 3 months early.  Imagine if he had 3+ years of term left … the haul would’ve been much bigger.

[ArizonaWildFan]

57 minutes ago, WildNotMild said:

 I just really can’t figure out if his vagueness is because he has no idea/plan or because he is super smart.  I am hoping for the latter, but would bet on the former.

Maybe it's because I've watched too many "Law & Order" episodes, but if someone has to pause and think and gaze away while answering questions, they are probably not telling the truth. Guerin is not super smart but he thinks he's smarter than his players, coaches, the fans and the media.

A competent president and GM would not have to hesitate to answer any of the questions he takes because he should have already asked and answered the same questions in his own mind and with his coaches and staff.

[Enforceror]

2 minutes ago, ArizonaWildFan said:

Maybe it's because I've watched too many "Law & Order" episodes, but if someone has to pause and think and gaze away while answering questions, they are probably not telling the truth. Guerin is not super smart but he thinks he's smarter than his players, coaches, the fans and the media.

A competent president and GM would not have to hesitate to answer any of the questions he takes because he should have already asked and answered the same questions in his own mind and with his coaches and staff.

Exactly. It was a funny contrast when the questions went to Hynes vs. BG. Despite the criticism Hynes gets from some of the fans, I find him to be astute and well spoken and it's very apparent vs. when Billy speaks.

[Enforceror]

51 minutes ago, WildNotMild said:

Agreed.  The Wild don’t have great depth as demonstrated by the career AHL players we had to use in the NHL last year.  If they did, they could take a big swing for an elite player.  I would love to get Pasta or BT, but it would likely decimate what little depth we have.  It isn’t like the Wild’s draft picks will be high picks, they will be in the throw a dart part of the first round.  Even the elite prospects (as claimed by management) aren’t sure things yet.  Look no further than Ohgren, Wally, etc.  I just don’t see a team giving up a player like BT for prospects or lower draft picks.  Having to give up multiple NHL roster players creates too many holes right now that can’t be filled with NHL ready talent (and that is before any injuries).

I started off with a quick note but ended up rambling. Sorry...

TLDR: A couple minor upgrades (either from FA or prospects) could be all it takes to get us there.

We just went toe-to-toe with arguably the best team in hockey and gave them an absolute run for their money. Two goals and we would have moved on. So I really don't think we're a long ways off the mark. What does it take to get those two goals?

What we need is just enough to overcome the voodoo factor. We could literally need two lineup tweaks and we're fighting for that cup. Unfortunately, we're stuck between having promising prospects (but don't know if or when they'll hit) and finding proven player/s that can mold with this team and provide the extra output. Throwing a bunch of money at a FA that isn't the right fit could have us taking a step back.....or could make the difference.

Getting into math - In regular season, MN had 2.84 GF per game. Tampa had the highest at 3.56. Difference of .72 / game. Would that difference have led to us getting a Game 7? I believe it would.

So how do we achieve .72 goals per game? Nojo had 34 points this year. Double that? It equates to a .41 points per game increase. I'm picking on Nojo but theoretically, this applies to anyone on the team. So do we only need two upgrades? Two .21 ppg increases?

Can/will our prospects/younger players take a step next year?

[ArizonaWildFan]

1 hour ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

I'm pretty confident his priorities will be to improve above the 4th line, but I'm not going to be upset if he brings back Brazeau at the minimum. He's not a guy you want to elevate in the lineup, but he's a capable 4th liner.

The idea behind building a successful lineup is to have upwardly mobile players. The Iowa Wild have capable NHL-ready fourth liners, don't waste a roster spot on the big club for someone who is at their ceiling on the fourth line. Brazeau has to go.

[MacGyver]

We have to wait and see how much the Wild will be over paying Kaprisov before we know what's left for anyone else. Every dollar you give someone is a dollar you don't have for someone else.  I think it will take at least $15M to sign Kaprisov if he chooses to stay. I think $15M is an overpay by about 2 or 3M. But the agents of these high end players are always pushing the numbers so the next star gets even more. And yes that's their job. But I still think $15M is an over pay. I'm questioning Kaprisov's durability. That's a lot of money that's potentially not on the ice consistently. 

Brock Nelson has one thing going for him. He has publicly stated he wants to be here. That's been a hard thing to find for the Wild. 

[OldDutchChip]

32 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

We have to wait and see how much the Wild will be over paying Kaprisov before we know what's left for anyone else. Every dollar you give someone is a dollar you don't have for someone else.  I think it will take at least $15M to sign Kaprisov if he chooses to stay. I think $15M is an overpay by about 2 or 3M. But the agents of these high end players are always pushing the numbers so the next star gets even more. And yes that's their job. But I still think $15M is an over pay. I'm questioning Kaprisov's durability. That's a lot of money that's potentially not on the ice consistently. 

Brock Nelson has one thing going for him. He has publicly stated he wants to be here. That's been a hard thing to find for the Wild. 

One time I’d like us to NOT be a destination for players on their last contract 🙂

Nelson - sorry buddy

i’d be all in on pasta though - he’d cost more than Rossi and Ohgren, but Faber and Rossi and a first should be hard to turn down by B

[Quebec1648]

In an ideal scenario, Bill Guerin would make trades for both Elias Petterson and Brady Tkachuk, while unloading Spurgeon to free cap space. If Rossi is traded as part of a deal to get these guys, I am willing to support it.

Here would be my proposed lines.

Line 1 = Petterson / Kaprizov / Brady Tkachuk

Line 2 = Yurov / Boldy / Free agent center

Line 3 = Ek / Foligno /:Ohgren

Line 4 = Whatever prospects are left after trading for Petterson and Tkachuk

D1 = Zeev / Middleton

D2 = Faber / Brodin

D3 = Jiricek / Lambos / Chisholm rotation

G = Gus Bus and Wall

[MacGyver]

1 hour ago, OldDutchChip said:

One time I’d like us to NOT be a destination for players on their last contract 🙂

Nelson - sorry buddy

i’d be all in on pasta though - he’d cost more than Rossi and Ohgren, but Faber and Rossi and a first should be hard to turn down by B

I agree it gets old being the last whistle stop on the retirement train for some of these players. In order to attract players you need to build a winning culture. After being in the league for 25 years the Wild have nothing to point to and say we are winners. Being the State of Hockey slogan doesn't cut it because we are also the state of 10,000 taxes. Hockey players are no different from anyone else as they want to keep as much of their earnings as possible.  This state is not tax friendly. 

I think Kaprisov signs but Theofanaus his agent is going to fleece CL for everything he can. Because CL told him he can and Billy reiterated it. CL would have been well advised to read The Art Of The Deal before making a statement like that. I doubt Billy has ever read a book from front to back in his life. 😁

[ArizonaWildFan]

 

 

6 hours ago, Enforceror said:

A couple minor upgrades (either from FA or prospects) could be all it takes to get us there.

I really agree with this statement. The Wild don't have to reinvent the wheel, they just have to air it up a little and get it balanced.

2025-2026 Roster and Salary:

Dead money - $1.67M (Parise & Suter)

C - Rossi - ??? (Offer the Boldy contract, $7M. Not going to find a FA with better production for less money)

C - Ek - $5.25M

C - Gaudreau - $2.1M

C - Ohgren - $887K

C - Yurov - ??? (Buium money, ELC $967K)

C/W - Hartman - $4M

W - Kaprizov - $9M

W - Boldy -$7M

W - Zuccarello - $4.1M

W - Foligno -$4M

W - Trenin - $3.5M (Trade for a 3rd round pick and free up the money. He's a 4th liner with no upside. You can get that anywhere for under $1M)

W - Hinostroza - $775K

D - Faber - $8.5M

D - Spurgeon - $7.575M

D - Brodin - $6M

D - Middleton - $4.35M

D - Bogosian - $1.25M

D - Buium - $967K

D - Jiricek - $918K

G - Gustavsson - $3.75M

G - Wallstedt - $2.2M

Sign Rossi for $7M and Yurov for $967K. Trade Trenin for a 3rd round pick and dump his $3.5M contract. That leaves the Wild with $83.25M under contract with 20 players. Three roster spots to fill and $12.25M to spend given the $95.5M limit. Bank $8M or $9M for in-season or trade deadline acquisitions or trades and spend around $1M give or take on the three open roster spots. No need to make a splash during the off season and handcuff the team down the road.

Sign Kaprizov to his record setting extension on July 1 (it will be surpassed by a different player on a different team quickly), Zuccarello and his $4.1M contract will be gone when KK's extension kicks in and the salary cap will bump up an additional $8.5M.

Remember when Duhaime, Dewar and Mason Shaw rocked the PK, scored shorties, and forechecked like hell on the fourth line for less combined money than Trenin makes? It can be done!

 

 

[RedLake]

The Mild can't do much next season. Rossi trade, Sign Benn, Granlund, Ehlers. Marner is a big no coming here. If Billy wastes cap on Nelson or Boozer that's fucking insane. Nelson at 3.5 at the most. Boomer ain't worth more than 1.5. Jamie Benn would make a great third line with Hartman and Ohgren. Replace NoJo Euro rainbow tape with Grandlund. AHLer Merŕil is replaced by Jiricek and MOUNTAIN GOAT HUNTER is replaced by Buuim. Brodin and Spurgeon also need bye bye.