Article: What if Zach Parise and Ryan Suter Finished Their Contracts in Minnesota?

[Justin Wiggins]

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[Citizen Strife]

Due to those cap recapture penalties, the Wild couldn’t afford either player to retire before the end of the 2024-25 season or risk being retroactively penalized on their cap.

That is the point all along.  Parise retiring wouldn't have just meant the $7.5m.  It could have meant $12m, $15m, $20m RIGHT when he retired.  If the Wild could have LTIR'd him and avoided it, sure.  Do that.  The Wild couldn't, and were burdened with that reality from day one since the buyout.  Guerin chose to avoid that ticking time bomb.   We don't even know of Suter plays out his contract and just says, "fuck this I'm gone," and does that again.

The NHL rules put the Wild in this situation.  Saying, "They should have just played them or LTIR'd them" goes against the reality that they couldn't.  I'm betting $7.5m for a couple years is easier to plan for than, "Oh shit, Parise's gone.  We're gonna take $12-15m from you this season, kthxbye, you morons in Minnesota!"

It was always the certainty Guerin wanted.

Taking that out of the equation, if you could have told me we would have gotten a 20-goal season out of Parise, maybe that helps.  Offense has been their detriment since Fiala got traded.  Does Fiala leave if the other contracts are still around?  I doubt it.  Guerin hated Fiala with a passion.  Who knows who gets drafted if the team isn't put in this scenario.

Edited April 5 by Citizen Strife

[Citizen Strife]

If I remember correctly, the Wild also accrued a one season savings of $10m before the locked hits the season after.  Kap and Fiala's deals were put in place thanks to some of that money.  Think not having Kap hurts now?  Think him not even re-signing at all.  Guerin knew Kap was special and signed him a few months after the buyouts.  Claiming he didn't see Kap's value immediately is foolish.

[hydguy75]

The real question here should be "What if GMCF signed ZF + RS to normal contracts, say only 3-5 years, instead of lucrative 13?"  

Much of the weird position we are in today stems from that key decision point.  The previous 3 seasons the Wild failed to make the playoffs.  Coach TR had only a couple years as NHL head coach.  I get it- OCL and GMCF were desperate to show anything resembling success.  In fact, the Wild had only made it to the PO's 3 times in the 11 seasons at this point.  

They saddled the MN Wild with 2 poison pill franchise players for a long-shot attempt at a Cup run.  The basis for such long contracts was mind blowing because the were still missing key ingredients for a deep run.  We already had a franchise star in Gaborik that succumbed to the injury bug (or was it he just wanted out?) after 9 seasons.  

Sure, the Wild would ratchet up their game by qualifying for PO's the next 6 seasons, however everyone's eye test could tell something was dysfunctional beneath the surface.  Koivu wore himself out season after season, where many times it seemed to be the only one trying to be a leader.  Rotate in a mix of new coaches and players, only to be completely overwhelmed and outplayed in elimination rounds (1-4, 2-4, 0-4, 2-4, 1-4, 1-4), never advancing past the 2nd round.  

Generally past age 30, a player's production starts to decline.  Not all, but most.  ZP + RS were both 27 at the signing.  So inking expensive 13 year deals to both was ludicrous, not hype.  Every team in the NHL knew at that point the Wild just sacked their seasons late into these contracts. 

[mnfaninnc]

The 13 year deals were never supposed to be completed. They were more like 9 or 10 year deals with void years. The punishment of these contracts was unprecedented but that is not our focus today.

I think we could have LTIR'd Parise for 3 seasons on this. I think we could have lowered Suter in the lineup and while he swallowed up cap, he was an available player who performed at an adequate rate. 

But, what happens if we do that? You have to look at the expansion draft, will each player waive their NMC? I think Parise would have, I am not sure about Suter. We know Kaprizov gets resigned for sure, and Fiala does too, but, who doesn't? It was not too tough for Guerin to move guys around, he was just going to have to work harder.

Would we have had a younger lineup and brought in kids to learn instead of marinating them? This is likely the answer. Would we have had 3/4 years with a playoff team? Doubtful. Would this year's squad be better? Maybe.

But, we didn't suffer like Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa and Utah/AZ through dramatic rebuilds with tanking. We were competitive as promised. I think this was a better path.

[Citizen Strife]

Only Ottawa has come out the other side so far.  Buffalo, Detroit, and Utah still look like steps behind where the Wild are.  New Jersey "did," but Huges got hurt.

Edited April 5 by Citizen Strife

[Patrick]

To me there is no point in this exercise.  Suter and Parise were so toxic that coaches couldn't even make roster/ice time decisions. (remember when Parise played a 2 plus minute shift in OT chasing a hatrick and the Wild lost because he was so gassed)  Ownership is to be blamed for this mess.  They didn't fight the retroactive punishment hard enough and allowed the personal relationships with Suter and Parise to poison the entire franchise. 

 

Fortunately, its all nearly over and the Wild have a bright near future.

[Protec]

Suter would be out for 3v3 OT, get his doors blown by DeAngelo when he was a Ranger 30 seconds in, then come off the ice and blame the team game in an interview followed by a KwikTrip hot-dog commercial. 

Parise was doing Russo interviews with somber black & white pics of him overlooking Lake Minnetonka while ripping the coaching and GM but nobody seemed to have any issue with that within the organization. 

If Staal hadn't scored 40, MN wouldn't have made the playoffs and Vegas got Tuch for free with Duby as the #1. It was hugely dysfunctional for a most of that entire time. Yeo F-bombs and stick-slaps at practice, trading the 1st we coulda used to select Oettinger, etc. 

Big swings everywhere with large wiffs. It never shoulda happened. OCL & Fletcher/Fenton did to the Wild what Guerin has spent five seasons trying to clean up. 

[Citizen Strife]

Something I wanted to look up: defensive stats

1. Makar; 90

2. Werenski; 74

3. Q. Hughes; 70

4&5. Bouchard/Hutson: 62

6. Hedman: 60

7. Dahlin: 59

8&9. Morrisey/Fox: 56

10. Karlsson: 52

 

Spurgeon is our best scoring defenseman, and he's T-46th at 30.  If the Wild want any chance, Buium or Jiricek (or both even) have to break into the 40-50 range or higher. The Wild tapered off something fierce once Middleton broke his hand.  Faber is close behind Spurgeon, but even then.  The top scoring defenseman should be 40-50.  Suter was the best Wild defenseman at 50 a couple years.  If the Wild are going to get anywhere, it's not just forward help. Offensive catalysts have to be dotted around the team.  Hynes's system may eliminate the run and gun crazy statlines...but a defenseman should be able to handle .5 points per game.

[Dean]

I don’t get the thought that Billy has kept us competitive is something special. The entire  league is competitive except for a handful of teams. Rolling out ahlers for 5 years to flirt with playoffs and that’s good?  Leaving assets on the table chasing fake playoff runs  benefits us how? Playoff experience is worth more than better prospects in the early years of Billy?  
    Zach and Ryan were welcomed signings at the time. This organization wasn’t  attracting any free agents  without over paying them . To land the best two free agents  was a good thing at the time. How they handled it going forward wasn’t. . Fletcher overpaid two of the top players in the league at the time. Billy over pays bottom six guys that have little value. Billy and Craig are doing exactly what Craig and Fletcher did.  They are going to go into the summer and overpay a free agent or two to come here.. Billy’s contract history says it’ll be a fletcher type contract. They are also going to have to overpay kappy to keep him here. So it sounds like the same old stuff to me.  How do you surround your overplayed players  because you can’t attract free agents due to you only being a competitive team your entire existence.. in this market you need to hit on draft picks because attracting free agents is expensive. Since Billy has been here he has Rossi in the nhl . Dallas can just put draft picks into nhl and they preform the wild  can’t . Prospect rankings dont win games. So until his guys start doing something  in the nhl you cant judge Billy’s drafting.  It seems to me Craig is gm doing same crap he’s been doing with all his GMs . Staying mediocre enough to sell tickets and get taxpayers to build him new toys. 

[mnfaninnc]

Dean, 1st order of business in any organization: Please the Boss. Last I looked, we are not this, OCL is. Your suggestion here gets Guerin and any other GM fired.

[mnfaninnc]

I think we need to talk about the obvious now: Francois St. Laurent.

I would be very interested in a breakdown of officiating and how we do with certain officials. St. Laurent, IIRC, has pissed off Heinzy more than just last night with either phantom calls or no calls. 

Russo explains it the best when he says that St. Laurent didn't even look like he was going to call a penalty on the Middleton hit. If I gave the benefit of the doubt, I'd say he didn't see the infraction. But why not call a major so you can video review that?

At this point, we have no other runway to throw away points. But I would circle the 1st game that St. Laurent officiates next season and target him as the meltdown game. 

Simply put, we cannot count on the DoPS to keep Wild players safe. We cannot count on officials to do that either. The narrative has to change which is currently, the Wild will bark but not bite. 

Sometimes change requires some ugliness. Just like you have to give something to get something, sometimes you just have to be real jerks and purposely show up an officiating crew, to the point where life is hard for them. 

So, writers, who might be looking for a story, which referees seem to be the best for us? Which ones seem to screw us? I would venture to bet that St. Laurent is on the top of the list who screws us.

I believe we've been pushed into a corner for a long time. Do you want to continue seeing your teammates hurt from dirty plays? Do nothing. But if you want change, you will have to start taking it out on a referee and the only thing that frightens them is losing control of a game. It terrifies officials and bogs them down with extra paperwork and scrutiny. 

One thing will happen with this: The Wild will get attention. Sometimes bad attention is better than no attention at all.

[Protec]

It's been a series of bad breaks for MN this season but there's issues, no debate about that. 

Can they be fixed easily or has Guerin batted 1000%, no. It's much better looking future now at the end of the penalties. MN has a chance to do something with this off-season. 

[Enforceror]

Watching Blues vs Avs....Blues look really sharp and are 7pts behind the Avs. 

Stars also catching Jets. If we manage to limp into the playoffs, we might be against Dallas again....

[Pablo]

Nice hypothesis but there is a whole butterfly effect that has to be considered. 

[RedLake]

Flames came back and tied Vegas 2-2 early in third. Tee times for da Wild childs.

[RedLake]

2-2 in Ot flames are within striking distance with a game in hand.

[RedLake]

Flames lost.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

Disappointing to see the Wild come out of the East coast games with just 2 points. They still have a decent shot at the playoffs, but a regulation win against the Islanders would have felt a lot better.

Hopefully they have better luck against Dallas in the matinee. They usually don't have much luck against them. Dallas lost yesterday to Pittsburgh with their backup goalie in. Oettinger might be motivated to get a W today to avoid a losing streak while playing back in his home state.

Calgary could tie things up soon, but if Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek come back strong, maybe the Wild win their last 4?

Quote

Wild are expected to sign University of Denver defenseman Zeev Buium after the Frozen Four and in time for the regular-season finale against Anaheim. -- The Athletic

 

[FredJohnson]

So the question is, would you rather have Suter at age 40 performing arguably better than Bogosian at his original cap hit of $7.5M or Bogosian at his cap hit plus Suter’s dead cap, totaling $8.75M?

Don't forget that Suter was a cancer.

[Thomas]

Quote

Let’s start with Suter, who is still an active player.

He's having a surprisingly good season, and the surging St. Louis Blues have overtaken the Wild in the standings. Winners of 11 straight, the Blues are suddenly the hottest team in the NHL, and Suter plays a big role for them. Even at 40, the rugged defenseman averages over 19 minutes of ice time per night, good enough for 4^th amongst their defensemen.

......Suter has a net -4 rating this season, placing him 5^th amongst all St. Louis blueliners. Not great, but solid for a bottom-pairing defenseman.

Jon Merrill and Zach Bogosian have been the Wild’s third pairing all year. Merrill and Bogosian players rate out as a -5 each, with Merrill providing above-average defense and Bogosian being well underwater on both ends of the ice.

........

.......

So the question is, would you rather have Suter at age 40 performing arguably better than Bogosian at his original cap hit of $7.5M or Bogosian at his cap hit plus Suter’s dead cap, totaling $8.75M? You could easily argue that Suter, with $1.25M savings, would be meaningfully beneficial to a team that couldn’t add much by the deadline due to injuries.

But would Suter's numbers be the same on this team as it is in StLouis?
Probably not. Different -team, -team mates, -system, - role etc. Coulda-woulda-shoulda is all fine in a 20/20 world, but then again, they'd probably not have been signed for eternity in the first place.

[Scalptrash]

Your article is four days late, nice try.

[1Brotherbill]

Hypothetical salary for those two this current year would have been 7.5 for Suter and 15.5 for Parise.  Imagine the team if they had 8 million tied up in dead cap money.