Article: Bill Guerin's Future Is Rooted In the Present

[Chris Schad]

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[Citizen Strife]

Time will tell on Khusnutdinov (and Ohgren still).  But Khusnutdinov was nowhere close to beating out Gaudreau on the depth chart. If Ohgren or Yurov are anything, they will beat out 7 pts in 55-60 games.  I don't like keeping Hartman over Khusnutdinov to open a Yurov slot, but such is life.

Jiricek just has to be patient.  Merrill will be gone, so there is Buium's slot.  The decision over Chisholm is what decides Jiricek's fate. Chisholm has been a good soldier, but you don't give up all that stuff to ride the bench.

 

 

 

[Pewterschmidt]

It makes pointing to the future seem like a crutch for a front office that should have built a foundation two or three years ago.

• agree.  I'm going to give Guerin a grade of C.  All his moves add up to a net neutral for me.
• Re: Nyquist - while I was optimistic at the signing because i thought we were getting Spring 2023 Nyquist.  Now I'm voting for us to let him walk this summer.  He's an upgrade over some of our other players who've auditioned in the middle 6 but he's pretty much a nothing burger at this point

[OldDutchChip]

1 hour ago, Pewterschmidt said:

It makes pointing to the future seem like a crutch for a front office that should have built a foundation two or three years ago.

• agree.  I'm going to give Guerin a grade of C.  All his moves add up to a net neutral for me.
• Re: Nyquist - while I was optimistic at the signing because i thought we were getting Spring 2023 Nyquist.  Now I'm voting for us to let him walk this summer.  He's an upgrade over some of our other players who've auditioned in the middle 6 but he's pretty much a nothing burger at this point

I grade him a D - only because Kap is still on our roster and maybe kap loves minny misery as much as rest of us and will sign?

Bill does not deserve any grade higher

we are in the worse position imaginable right now and he had 6 years to prep

there is no plan, and likely no way out

[Imyourhuckleberry]

1 hour ago, Citizen Strife said:

But Khusnutdinov was nowhere close to beating out Gaudreau on the depth chart. If Ohgren or Yurov are anything, they will beat out 7 pts in 55-60 games.  I don't like keeping Hartman over Khusnutdinov to open a Yurov slot, but such is life.

Jiricek just has to be patient.  Merrill will be gone, so there is Buium's slot.  The decision over Chisholm is what decides Jiricek's fate. Chisholm has been a good soldier, but you don't give up all that stuff to ride the bench.

Hartman is a more complete player than Khusnutdinov, so I certainly don't mind keeping him around over Marat.

Agree with the rest. Nyquist hasn't produced yet, but still hoping he finds chemistry with someone on the Wild like he did the last time he was around.

If the Wild collect just half of the remaining points available to them in 17 games, which would be disappointing, they would finish with 95 points. For Calgary, or any team behind them, they would need to earn more than 63% of available standings points in order to reach 94 points. There are only 7 teams in the NHL who are currently over 63% in points% on the season.

As such, last night's win increased the chances of the postseason quite a bit. Hopefully the Wild do better than simply .500 play to close the season as it would be nice to get back to 100+ points as they did the 2 seasons prior to last year, a points pace they also exceeded in the 20-21 shortened season.

[greg]

I also give Guerin a d-.  Why for example do you trade for Jiricek and send him to Iowa to play then call him up to sit in the press box.  It's a joke.  Then we trade two players and a draft pick for a guy who hardly plays and was benched for the third period the other day.  We have traded away a lot of draft picks.  There isn't even a guarantee they make the playoffs but it's possible.  I don't really dislike guerin but he hasn't done much to build the team.  We are still a bottom feeder in the playoffs team that seems destined to be ousted in the first round again.

[MNCountryLife]

I'm not as pessimistic on BG.  I think he was dealing with a toxic locker room with  Suter in addition to two really bad contracts.  He has managed to keep the team in the playoffs while navigating cap hell.  When you are down 14M in cap you are missing at minimum 2 top 6 players.  That can be the difference between being a cup contender or not.  I would giver BG a flat "C" grade.  He has tread water.  Now he has cap room.  Spend it on true top 6 players.  Don't overpay for bottom 6.  If the player isn't available hold onto the cash until one does become available. Use your assets wisely.  Next season he will be out of excuses.  Fans will expect to be competitive in later rounds in a very good division.

[SkolWild73]

Just a couple of thughts about this article.

PuckPedia projects the Wild will have roughly $22 million in salary cap this offseason. However, we must factor in Kaprizov's eight-figure extension. Therefore, Minnesota will still have $10 to $12 million to spend, leaving Guering to fill in the pieces of a roster that has been one of the worst teams in hockey since the start of the calendar year.

Kap is signed through next year.  His extension has no bearing on our cap space this offseason.  Rossi's extension would, and if they decide to resign someone else (hopefully not). The number of $10 to $12M might be correct if they make some moves, I guess.

The Stars and Avalanche took the opposite approach, building the foundation and supplementing it with big free-agent moves. But while Guerin hypes up his future, it’s all about the present, satisfying this franchise’s desperation to get out of the first round.

What big free agent moves did the Stars make?  Of their top 15 scorers, they signed Mason Marchment Sam Steel and Matt Duchene as FA's.  Duchene was a huge pickup, after getting bought out by Nashville in 2023.  He was in such high demand that Dallas had to fork out a one year $3M contract.  Results were great but would not call him a big FA signing at the time. The rest of their team was through the draft and trades.

How about Colorado?  Same thing as Dallas, 3 FA signings among their top 15 scorers. First, Nichushkin all the way back after the 2019 season, a season where he scored 0G and 10A in 57 games for Dallas.  Second, Kirvanta, signed in 2023 after lighting it up with the Stars with 8G and 1 A in 70 games.  The last "Big" FA signing they had was Parker Kelly who they signed this year after 8G and 10 A in 80 games with Ottawa last year.  

Neither one of these teams went out and signed a big FA.  They signed small deals to players and filled in their gaps with players from their system and trades in Dallas case, or made a ton of trades like Colorado did.  Out of their top 15 scorers this year, only MacKinnon and Makar were drafted by the Avs.

The players we signed as FA's are Zucc, Hartman, Freddy G and Trenin. The rest are through the draft or via trade.  I would say we are building or have built the foundation with Kap, Boldy, Faber, Brodin, and Rossi with hopefully some young guns coming in next year.  I will have to wait and see what is done this offseason to add to the roster, but I would say the foundation is there.  

[OldDutchChip]

25 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

I'm not as pessimistic on BG.  I think he was dealing with a toxic locker room with  Suter in addition to two really bad contracts.  He has managed to keep the team in the playoffs while navigating cap hell.  When you are down 14M in cap you are missing at minimum 2 top 6 players.  That can be the difference between being a cup contender or not.  I would giver BG a flat "C" grade.  He has tread water.  Now he has cap room.  Spend it on true top 6 players.  Don't overpay for bottom 6.  If the player isn't available hold onto the cash until one does become available. Use your assets wisely.  Next season he will be out of excuses.  Fans will expect to be competitive in later rounds in a very good division.

When you are down 14M in cap you are missing at minimum 2 top 6 players. 
 

Small correction- the buy outs were tied solely to ZP and RS so it wasn’t an option for us to re-use the money. So minimum of 2 top 6 players only applies if you believe ZP and RS to be such. So the root issue is not the money but the players. 

[Scalptrash]

F - Trading first round picks for question marks is not how you build a team for the future. First round picks are for getting proven NHL players that can contribute immediately. The Wild got absolutely fleeced in the Brazeau trade. He is worth a third at best, with no other players involved. If you need to make room, then Marat straight up (still lopsided, he was a 2nd round pick), but he's more valuable to the future. Brazeau has no upside, he isn't going to get better, Marat will. Marat should have spent a full season in Iowa, minimum, he was thrown to the wolves.

[MNCountryLife]

8 minutes ago, OldDutchChip said:

Small correction- the buy outs were tied solely to ZP and RS so it wasn’t an option for us to re-use the money. So minimum of 2 top 6 players only applies if you believe ZP and RS to be such. So the root issue is not the money but the players. 

I think I get what you are saying.  I was valuing ZP and RS as being worth the $14M and top 6 players.  It's the idea of what you pay does not equate to performance or ROI.  

The will be an intriguing summer with BG having more money.  Will he actually be able to bring in top 6 talent or will he overspend.  He will make or break his reputation this summer.

[SkolWild73]

14 minutes ago, Scalptrash said:

Trading first round picks for question marks is not how you build a team for the future.

He has traded one first round pick that I am aware of.  Next year's pick for a player that has playing time in the NHL already and is 21.

[OldDutchChip]

49 minutes ago, MNCountryLife said:

I think I get what you are saying.  I was valuing ZP and RS as being worth the $14M and top 6 players.  It's the idea of what you pay does not equate to performance or ROI.  

The will be an intriguing summer with BG having more money.  Will he actually be able to bring in top 6 talent or will he overspend.  He will make or break his reputation this summer.

correct. our money was tied into ZP and RS and not into top 6 forward and a top D pairing. 

i think he will over spend and on the wrong sort once again 😞

nelson 4X8

 

[Lovehockey]

I wouldn’t give BG any grades because he shouldn’t be the Wild’s GM—or any NHL team’s GM.

 

Looking at his first five years with the Wild:

• His biggest accomplishment was …. coming up with a five-year plan. What a joke 

• The only notable trade he made was for Faber, and even that remains questionable in terms of real success.

• He constantly talks about salary cap constraints, yet he created them himself.

• The team has never made it past the first round, meaning zero success.

• Everything else has already been covered in previous posts.

 

I’m honestly surprised by how patient Wild fans are.

 

We’ll see what happens this summer, but it might not feel like Christmas at all.

[Dango]

Right now Rossi , Boldy have more points than Brady and Tuch ,  and  everyone thinks we should trade them and Faber for them and throw in haight height etc  .   LOL  but BG has no plan .

[mnfaninnc]

7 hours ago, Imyourhuckleberry said:

As such, last night's win increased the chances of the postseason quite a bit. Hopefully the Wild do better than simply .500 play to close the season as it would be nice to get back to 100+ points as they did the 2 seasons prior to last year, a points pace they also exceeded in the 20-21 shortened season.

I'm hoping that they will relax, continue with their structure, and have learned the lesson from 3 years ago not to go all out for home ice advantage. 7 or 8 is just fine.

I'm more concerned about getting Brodin, Kaprizov and Ek back before playoff time and not having anyone else go down. It might be a better draw for us to head to the Pacific Division which would mean a 7th seed. 2 playoff teams are behind us: LA Kings and Calgary Flames. Calgary has a better shot at passing LA than us at this point. 

I want our goaltending up to par and a significantly better effort shoring up the PK. Goose played great last night, that isn't sustainable. But, not allowing any softies is an obtainable goal.

[mnfaninnc]

6 hours ago, OldDutchChip said:

Small correction- the buy outs were tied solely to ZP and RS so it wasn’t an option for us to re-use the money. So minimum of 2 top 6 players only applies if you believe ZP and RS to be such. So the root issue is not the money but the players. 

I just don't buy this line of thinking. When originally signed, there were "void" years built into these contracts where the other teams would simply cut the guy or buy them out what was left of the money and move on. The penalties were built in as the only time I can remember in sports history where something done previously didn't get "grandfathered in." There also weren't many of those deals still out there. 

But, that aside, it isn't about ZP and RS as much as it is about punishing a team for signing a legal contract that the league didn't like. Yes, there would have been some dead cap, but according to those rules it would have been about $1m/yr. for 3ish years. Both players were never supposed to finish out those contracts when they were signed. 

Granted, Guerin bought them out knowing the penalties were coming, but reality is that they are not paying huge checks to ZP and RS. They are paying the bought out amount of what was left on their contracts, not what the cap says. I think it is more about what you've said in the past: nobody cares about MN as a market, and OCL has not contributed enough money to get something done, whether it be a lottery pick or 2, or getting these penalties erased. 

The bottom line is this: We cannot have any depth with those types of penalties. Those 2 players with that type of deal are missing and a key reason as to why we are in dire straights right now. What is even more confusing about this rule is how the players agreed to it allowing a team like the Wild to claim they are a full cap team to actually only pay about the floor in salary. Also, aside from Luongo, it appears all the other contracts found a loophole and the guys are on LTIR.

[mnfaninnc]

I'm feeling generous and give Guerin a B. He had a lot of crap to clean up after the Fenton fiasco and the Fletcher ending. He's built a solid prospect pool which was empty and he hasn't really traded those guys away like Fletcher did. 

As for results, under his regime, the Wild had their best single season. He was the GM that got Kaprizov over here and the one that resigned him. He's made some moves to bring in Faber, Jiricek and signed some absolutely high valued deals. 

His first order of business was making sure Spurgeon got resigned, and then he went from there. Also, with the buyouts, he promised us a competitive team and has delivered in 3 out of 4 years, possibly 4 out of 5. This team should have never even had the expectation of being any better than competitive, so anyone who had higher expectations needs to check on those in the mirror because that's on them.

He hasn't been a perfect GM, but he's also been the best GM our franchise has ever had. I realize, before anyone calls me out on it, that this is a low bar.

[Protec]

Oldest, most beat up topic. 

Guerin-haters keep whining and crying cause he's not going anywhere and just GM'd for USA tacking on more resume-boosting credentials. 

The Wild were total shit at the end of Parise/Suter. They were whining too in the press and the team had zero prospects or useful 1st round picks. 

You complainers are a joke, giving F-grades while full-rebuilders aren't any closer to a Cup and big-swingers are striking out with newly-signed Stamkos, Big-Apple Blunders, or Vancouver's vanquished playoff chances. 

We'll see, but I remember people crying Staal shouldn't have been traded, Suter should have, and Fiala wasn't given a fair shake. Suter had to be bought out AGAIN, Staal retired, and Fiala isn't putting LA into the contender conversation so I don't really give a crud if rando rag'n-rippers wanna armchair GM from their office chair or smartphone. It's not even debatable, MN has good youth, solid defense and goaltending. Injuries always hurt, but MN's penalties will end and they'll be handicapped beyond all other NHL teams no more. The Wild have been better ever since Guerin got hired and not alone getting knocked out of the playoffs. Doomers everywhere nowadays. 

[Imyourhuckleberry]

16 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

2 playoff teams are behind us: LA Kings and Calgary Flames. Calgary has a better shot at passing LA than us at this point. 

I'm curious why you think the Wild would be tougher to pass than LA.

The Kings have played 2 fewer games than the Wild and have a higher points percentage. The last 8 games that JEE has been out, the Wild are 3-5.

Based upon points percentage, the Wild are already in 7th with the Kings in 5th ahead of the Oilers.

The Kings aren't amazing, but I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to grab points at a higher rate while the Wild are down 3 key players. It's not a bad thing for the Wild to finish in 7th and that very well could be where they end up.

Calgary is somewhat of a long shot to pass anyone above them and Vancouver, St. Louis, or Utah could climb into the 8th spot, but it'd take a pretty incredible run to move beyond that, assuming the Wild can hover around .500 the rest of the way.

I'm not saying the Wild are safe, but I certainly would bet on them falling out of the playoffs. If they can get healthy, they could be a tough playoff opponent from either the 7th seed or 8th seed.

[Imyourhuckleberry]

6 hours ago, SkolWild73 said:

He has traded one first round pick that I am aware of.  Next year's pick for a player that has playing time in the NHL already and is 21.

Yes, next year's pick, which is likely to be around pick #18-20 for a pretty well developed 2022 draft top 10 pick that may just need a summer of work with the Wild skating coach in order to be fully ready for major NHL minutes.

Also, let's not pretend that Jiricek is doing nothing just because he isn't getting into games. He has pretty solid hockey instincts and offensive skills, but needs skating work. They can do skating work outside of games and insert him into games when they aren't playing top scoring opponents.

Now, I wouldn't hate seeing Jiricek get more AHL minutes, but given how the Iowa Wild are performing, doing skating work with the NHL coaches might be just as good for his development as playing 20 minutes/night for the Iowa Wild.

[OldDutchChip]

12 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I just don't buy this line of thinking. When originally signed, there were "void" years built into these contracts where the other teams would simply cut the guy or buy them out what was left of the money and move on. The penalties were built in as the only time I can remember in sports history where something done previously didn't get "grandfathered in." There also weren't many of those deals still out there. 

But, that aside, it isn't about ZP and RS as much as it is about punishing a team for signing a legal contract that the league didn't like. Yes, there would have been some dead cap, but according to those rules it would have been about $1m/yr. for 3ish years. Both players were never supposed to finish out those contracts when they were signed. 

Granted, Guerin bought them out knowing the penalties were coming, but reality is that they are not paying huge checks to ZP and RS. They are paying the bought out amount of what was left on their contracts, not what the cap says. I think it is more about what you've said in the past: nobody cares about MN as a market, and OCL has not contributed enough money to get something done, whether it be a lottery pick or 2, or getting these penalties erased. 

The bottom line is this: We cannot have any depth with those types of penalties. Those 2 players with that type of deal are missing and a key reason as to why we are in dire straights right now. What is even more confusing about this rule is how the players agreed to it allowing a team like the Wild to claim they are a full cap team to actually only pay about the floor in salary. Also, aside from Luongo, it appears all the other contracts found a loophole and the guys are on LTIR.

I just don't buy this line of thinking. where is the issue? the penalty reason is irrelevant. let's call Zach Parise a top 1W. and Ryan Suter 1D. Because that is what they were paid for. No one pushed Bill into the buy outs. But he did. So he removed both. The monetary saving fluctuated a bit but at its core the money and players were bound together. You couldn't substitute players (which seems fair) - you either play ZP and RS or you don't. We choose not to. To say that we could have done something MORE is simply wrong - it was NOT allowed. It is not the leagues fault that ZP was no longer playing at 1W level. Nor was it that Billy decided that RS was too opinionated for the locker room (oh goodness!) i mean common - that is silly.  

But, that aside, it isn't about ZP and RS as much as it is about punishing a team for signing a legal contract that the league didn't like. 

that is the from the same excuse book that billy  have used for the last 5 years.....oh if not for the cap penalty!!!! but look Bill - we are even worse off now! 

and it's not about the contract, it's about the PLAYERS. if players were playing up to the level that they were getting paid for, then this wouldn't be so bad....right? can't have it both ways. 

Granted, Guerin bought them out knowing the penalties were coming, but reality is that they are not paying huge checks to ZP and RS. They are paying the bought out amount of what was left on their contracts, not what the cap says. I think it is more about what you've said in the past: nobody cares about MN as a market, and OCL has not contributed enough money to get something done, whether it be a lottery pick or 2, or getting these penalties erased.  then stop using the cap penalties as excuses. say that you messed up and allocated money to the wrong person. parise is worthless, so having him on the team or not does shit. You can replace him with that Braz chump and impact is the same. but no we cry - if only not for cap penalties - but that is completely false - you signed the wrong players and now are using cap penalties as an excuse to prolong loosing.

The bottom line is this: We cannot have any depth with those types of penalties. yes we can. you have plenty of smart people running teams. it's just we are stuck with a moron. the one that signed Trenin to a contract and just traded for Braz and will likely hand out a juicy Bill special to Nelson but at 8 per. 

There is no cap penalty! the only penalty is a self inflicted one that was made the moment we signed ZP and RS to these idiotic contracts. We cannot re-use their money on a Top 6 player. We can only have ZP and RS or no one and we picked no one. 

[OldDutchChip]

5 hours ago, Dango said:

Right now Rossi , Boldy have more points than Brady and Tuch ,  and  everyone thinks we should trade them and Faber for them and throw in haight height etc  .   LOL  but BG has no plan .

well shit man, forget Brady Tkachuk - we are set! 

[OldDutchChip]

24 minutes ago, mnfaninnc said:

I'm feeling generous and give Guerin a B. He had a lot of crap to clean up after the Fenton fiasco and the Fletcher ending. He's built a solid prospect pool which was empty and he hasn't really traded those guys away like Fletcher did. 

As for results, under his regime, the Wild had their best single season. He was the GM that got Kaprizov over here and the one that resigned him. He's made some moves to bring in Faber, Jiricek and signed some absolutely high valued deals. 

His first order of business was making sure Spurgeon got resigned, and then he went from there. Also, with the buyouts, he promised us a competitive team and has delivered in 3 out of 4 years, possibly 4 out of 5. This team should have never even had the expectation of being any better than competitive, so anyone who had higher expectations needs to check on those in the mirror because that's on them.

He hasn't been a perfect GM, but he's also been the best GM our franchise has ever had. I realize, before anyone calls me out on it, that this is a low bar.

He was the GM that got Kaprizov over here and the one that resigned him. no - Kaprizov was going to come here no matter what. To give this one to Bill seems odd. Then basically give Fletch the A+ for drafting Kaprizov then. 

The best GM was Fletch, like it or not. He got us Kaprizov. The worse is Bill, he will drive him away. 

[OldDutchChip]

23 minutes ago, Protec said:

Oldest, most beat up topic. 

Guerin-haters keep whining and crying cause he's not going anywhere and just GM'd for USA tacking on more resume-boosting credentials. 

The Wild were total shit at the end of Parise/Suter. They were whining too in the press and the team had zero prospects or useful 1st round picks. 

You complainers are a joke, giving F-grades while full-rebuilders aren't any closer to a Cup and big-swingers are striking out with newly-signed Stamkos, Big-Apple Blunders, or Vancouver's vanquished playoff chances. 

We'll see, but I remember people crying Staal shouldn't have been traded, Suter should have, and Fiala wasn't given a fair shake. Suter had to be bought out AGAIN, Staal retired, and Fiala isn't putting LA into the contender conversation so I don't really give a crud if rando rag'n-rippers wanna armchair GM from their office chair or smartphone. It's not even debatable, MN has good youth, solid defense and goaltending. Injuries always hurt, but MN's penalties will end and they'll be handicapped beyond all other NHL teams no more. The Wild have been better ever since Guerin got hired and not alone getting knocked out of the playoffs. Doomers everywhere nowadays. 

Guerin-haters keep whining and crying cause he's not going anywhere and just GM'd for USA tacking on more resume-boosting credentials.  who cares about leading US to a no-one-gives-a-shit second place? Wild have been better? Did i miss them winning a round? No?